You still on?

 

Actually, let's play it this way.

Oracle or Gravedigger. If you have a definitive result that Kalas is NOT a witch, it would be nice to know.

Otherwise, don't speak up and we can thus assume Kalas WAS a witch because one or the other would probably have gotten results on it last Night.

---------- Post automerged at 02:05 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:04 AM ----------

Yep. Let's roll.

Explain your Snowvon vote.

 

I'll fully admit, Sesc was right, it was my RVS vote that was leftover from the beginning. I've developed a meta read on him using it from many past games with him.

The crapshoot was the Nae'blis and Sesc wagons happened while I was sleeping, and by the time I got in the thread the day was a forgone conclusion

 

Never said anything like this. Please tell me more.

---------- Post automerged at 02:14 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:13 AM ----------

Also, I find it funny that the immediate leap for low posting is scum. I get it. It just makes me giggle that it's the first assumption.

Also, definitely not scum. Definitely, definitely not.

 

Also Sesc if you would pay attention I literally JUST told Newcomb I would do a full ISO on you tomorrow.

But you haven't cared enough to pay attention for most of this game, so it's not like I actually expect that from you.

 

My Typhon read was the result over my read-over N1, your posting bringing those points up ninja'd me, as I was looking up all the quotes.

I've previously detailed my work schedule (where I can't post from), so in the time I have I post what I can. For voting, see above reply to Cobalt, I'm not a player who loves throwing my vote around constantly.

 

Instead of just insisting you're not scum how about you address the points I made against you in my post?

 

I understand the low post count thing, but any chance you can answer my questions/requests from #535 and/or #568?

---------- Post automerged at 02:20 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:20 AM ----------
Cobalt, do you think I'm off base with my Typhon read, and if so why?

 

Hey Riley wanna cut the soft claim bullshit and tell us if you have any definitive info?

 

You wanna chill the fuck out and stop trying to discredit me?

Of COURSE I've looked at all your posts before. I just don't have a post by post ISO analysis which is what I promised Newcomb.

You're reaching.

---------- Post automerged at 02:44 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:41 AM ----------

In fact, that's why during my rantpost I said "fuck this post in particular" because I was literally looking at all of them over and over.

 

@All players and mod: I will be on a family trip tomorrow (Thursday), and will not be able to access the thread.

 

Okay, so obviously that was a pretty major disaster. We have to do pretty much everything exactly right from here on out to win.

First, to see to my own defence:

1. Can someone outline the exact argument against me?

2. So far as I can tell, there's only been two points brought up: firstly, my early posts were "unreadable"; secondly, I switched my vote from Naeblis to Sesc then back to Naeblis in a very short amount of time.

2A. With regards to my early posts being unreadable, it doesn't make sense to look at the early posts in isolation. Look at my posts over the course of the entire day. I think I provided plenty to be read. In fact, I think I'm probably the most readable player here: I've staked out a clear and unambiguous position on each player (read post), in addition to explicitly outlining the principles and playstyle that underlies all of my day one decisions (early post). Everything I have done has been consistent with those principles and reads. Now, clearly some of the reads were wrong, but every single player here has made incorrect reads.

2B. I don't see how the vote switch was at all indicative of being a witch. Firstly, it was consistent with what I had been saying all along (that first day, you just need to lynch someone, and on later days you go back and look at accusation/voting patterns).

Secondly, it had zero impact on anything, because it was so quick. If it was a witch plan, it was an awful one.

Thirdly, I already openly admitted it was a mistake (the quickness of the reversal evidences the fact that it was a mistake) - I had thought the Sesc bandwagon was a lot stronger than it was, but then I actually counted the votes, and then fonti switched away from it, and it became clear to me that I had been vastly premature in thinking that Sesc’s bandwagon was more likely than Naeblis’. I attribute this error in perception due to Cobalt’s enthusiasm in pushing the Sesc bandwagon. Sesc pointed this out already: when Cobalt started the Sesc bandwagon, he presented it as the only real alternative to the Naeblis bandwagon. I bought into this rhetoric. It was only later that I realised that Cobalt had misrepresented the matter, and that in fact Cobalt had started the Sesc bandwagon from a position of complete standstill.

3. I maintain that voting for Naeblis was the correct thing to do, given the information we had at the time. I mean, it turned out to be a disaster largely because Naeblis then went on to kill another town player, who in turn took out another player (who may well have been town - I don’t think we can assume Kalas was a witch). None of us could have predicted that this was going to happen. Hell, even the witches couldn’t have predicted it - they surely didn’t know Nae’s role. And as has been mentioned above, Nae probably should have role claimed. But he didn’t, so he seemed as good a possibility to be a witch as anyone, and if you go to my read post, you’ll see that I identified him as such well before his lynch was a guaranteed thing. And in fact, if you go all the way back to Nae’s first post, you’ll see me calling him out on the inconsistency of “scumreading” fonti after saying that everything was speculative. My suspicion of Naeblis was well established early on, and I think it was justified by his behaviour. Sure, I said that I considered, on a meta-level, those reads to be likely wrong (and in Naeblis’ case, at least, they were), but I didn’t allow that meta-observation to interfere with my gameplay: I still voted for Naeblis, because he was my highest witch likelihood candidate. It’s this separation of the meta and the immersive which means you can still judge and analyse me based on my reads: I still make decisions based on my reads, even if on the meta level I consider them bullshit.

4. It could be said that what I said above could be said for everyone who voted for Naeblis, and thus dumps us in the problematic position of not being able to read anyone, which would be the kind of thing a witch would do. However, I don’t think this is the case. Firstly, not everyone has the justified anti-Naeblis consistency I displayed (even when I switched my vote to Sesc, I made it clear that I still thought we should have been voting for Nae). Secondly, there were some suspicious goings on right before the Naeblis lynch.

4A. I mainly find it very suspicious that some players seemed to be laying the groundwork for Naeblis being innocent before the end of the day. It’s like they knew he would eventually turn out town, and were positioning themselves favourably for that eventuality. I'm primarily looking at Citrus here: Cobalt also laid down this groundwork, but he didn't vote to lynch Nae and so it's consistent.

But Citrus did vote to lynch Nae, but before the end of the day was already saying things like:

And:

It’s like he was covering all his bases, preparing to shift blame for an event he contributed to but already knew was going to go badly for the town. He probably didn’t expect it to go so badly in such a public way - he couldn’t have known that Nae’s role would be revealed so immediately. He probably expected that by the time we knew Nae was town, these posts will have become lost and forgotten, but ready to be called upon to prove his towniness.

In short, I’m highly suspicious of Citrus right now - even more so than I was before.

The priest claim is the real tricky issue here. We really don’t want to lynch the priest. And yet we can’t ask for the real priest, if Citrus is not the priest, to reveal themselves, because to do so in a soup game would be suicide. Citrus, of course, will have known this. If he is a witch, it’s a genius play. Even the real priest, if Citrus isn’t the priest, can’t know for sure that Citrus is a witch, because there’s always the possibility that he’s town fake claiming priest to confuse soup.

4B. Also suspicious is fonti, who also went along with Citrus’ pre-lynch distancing, preparing to place the blame for a Naeblis mislynch on me in #545. I am a target of convenience for the witches here: I was strongly for a Naeblis lynch and also have made enemies among players who are likely town. So here they are, laying the groundwork to shift the blame for the mislynch onto me. Combine this with fonti’s earlier “trolly” attitude and my suspicion on fonti is high. Citrus called fonti scum at #542 and #546. This could be a classic misdirection tactic to make it look like they’re not working together. It’s interesting that he doesn’t give much reason: he’s distancing from fonti without really risking any chance of other people joining him in an anti-fonti vote.

5. Let’s not forget that the witches night-killed Jan. If you go to my reads post, you’ll find that I was one of the few people who was pretty strongly in support of Jan, my only reservation being his “no lynch” plan. Fonti voted to lynch Jan, and had had a long and drawn out rivalry with him. This increases my suspicion on fonti even further. The lump votes don’t really concord with this analysis, but I think it became pretty clear that Newcomb was going to get lump. That meant the witches were free to lump vote however they liked, just to confuse voting records.

6. There’s probably a lot more analysis that can be done to discern anti-Jan patterns, as we now know he was town. The same with Snowvon (and to a lesser extent Kalas, lesser because he posted a lot less). I don’t think we should focus exclusively on Naeblis, when we have two other confirmed town players to think about. Incidentally, I think my analysis of Snowvon as playing safe makes a lot of sense in light of his role: he would want to avoid a lynch until he had a better idea of who to take down with him.

7. So, my current top likelihood witches are Citrus and fontisian. I’m not sure about the third, if it wasn’t Kalas (I did consider Kalas as witch possible in my read post, but only really because I felt that the witches would have a low-postcount player, and there are still others who could fill that role, such as Riley and Waco Kid).

8. Moving forward, is there any reason why we can’t do Newcomb’s plan again, with priest, oracle and clown visiting the same person (a person the town picks collectively?) It’d be useful to know if Kalas was or wasn’t a witch, and the oracle could tell us. We’d have to adjust the rules on “silence to confirm” slightly, to account for the more complex scenario. I guess it’s possible that one or more of the roles is dead in the form of Jan and Kalas, so the plan might not work. And actually, that could be pretty dangerous, if we take silence to confirm someone’s innocence or that Kalas was town, and it turns out to be silence because the role is dead. Hrm.

---------- Post automerged at 12:47 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:32 PM ----------

As for Sesc, I'm still not at all convinced. We shouldn't be voting to lynch him for the sole reason that he was the alternative to Nae yesterday. Clearly a majority of us didn't feel like the argument against Sesc was convincing yesterday.

Can someone outline (briefly) the exact reason(s) why they think Sesc is a witch? ideally this analysis will take into account

a) Sesc and Cobalt are clearly personal now, which means any reads based on their interactions becomes very unreliable, because no matter how much people say they vote based purely on reason, not on personal rivalry, it's clearly impossible to distance yourself completely. The emotional bleeds into and distorts the rational.

b) It's readily apparent in this game that "regular DLPers" play mafia in a different way to the denizens of the mafia subforum. There's less of an expectation of thoroughness in posting, an increased tendency to allow self-interest to determine actions, and a generally less serious approach to the game. Cos, you know. It's a game.

 

Still catching up, still not home to a comp. In case anybody else comes on, though, I feel like the role speculation is toxic. I think there are 7 town and 2 Witches left. That's not a lot of room for us. Each locked in soupable player makes the next player significantly easier to soup. They have 2 shots (or 3, if I'm wrong about Kalas I guess). Unless it is vital to keep us from heading off in a direction that will see us losing the game, I think no one should claim.

---------- Post automerged at 08:25 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:22 AM ----------

Soft or otherwise. If you can work info from your role into your reads, good. If it's not that sort of role, then just sit on it guys. D1 the plan was good because one life wasn't that costly to us. With that EoD1 fuckery, though, the game got accelerated. One life is very costly at this point.

 

Theoretically it's ok if one players' role is known, since witches have to forgot the night-kill to soup. Also, we could have angelic protection on them tonight, and then if they still die then we know the scum used their protection-pierce (which means 1+ scum are dead).

Hmm maybe I should reveal my check from last night, since I'm the priest.

 

Soup pierces Angelic protection even without a Death Curse, because it's not a regular kill.

 

Except for the fact that if they have that, they might be able to put enough together to get more, which is nasty. In the case of something important, I guess it's okay, but I'm very against revealing for something less than vital.

---------- Post automerged at 09:29 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:28 AM ----------

Oh, and that thing that Taure said. Good catch, I didn't realize that.

 

TIL

/10char