In that case it's taure/riley/Kalas OR Newcomb has to be scum. Any other team is falsifiable I think

---------- Post automerged at 11:45 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:44 AM ----------

I have a list of world's based on trees of town/scum of people, I've eliminated everything else

---------- Post automerged at 02:18 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:45 AM ----------

Soooo Yeah.

10char

 

Riley Where are you man? If you don't want to get lynched, you need to get in here.

 

Riley is probably not a witch.

 

It's more likely than Newcomb being a witch.

Or else, I'm going to check my premises and tussle with them a bit, because that's what my logic came down to.

---------- Post automerged at 03:47 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:46 PM ----------

Or one+ of Sesc/Fontisian/Cobalt is a witch, which is why I think one of Sesc/Fontisian is a witch.

Which is more likely than Newcomb being a witch x10 imo

 

If Newcomb is a witch we're pretty much boned, because it means potentially town has 6 votes and scum have 4.

Plus pretty much everyone thinks he's town, so good luck lynching him.

---------- Post automerged at 09:51 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:51 PM ----------

If he is a witch though, fucking bravo.

(Irene would kill us all.)

---------- Post automerged at 09:53 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:51 PM ----------

Fuck, if Newcomb is a witch and we lynch the wrong person today, that's game over. Mislynch + night kill would mean 4 votes for town and 4 for scum.

 

On the bright side, that means if I, the Priest, checked Newcomb last night I would share a 'scum' result.

So Newcomb is now Lump AND Towncleared unless I (as Priest) say otherwise.

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Which means {Taure/Riley/Kalas} OR {one of Fontisian/Sesc} OR {Scum!Cobalt}.

The Taure/Riley/Kalas world is a little scary if we lynch in Fontisian/Sesc today, but then also not that scary since we have the scum-team pinned down.

Fontisian/Sesc world sucks if we lynch the wrong one (obviously).

I see Cobalt world as extremely unlikely right now.

Any world that wasn't listed is less likely than a scum!Cobalt world imo, and it's due to faulty premises (but feel free to propose it if you think I missed it!)

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Hmm. I could buy Fontisian thinking Jan was the Priest rather than believing me when I said I was/am the Priest. Which would indicate Fontisian should be lynched.

Ho hum, thought people? What do you think of my proposed worlds as above?

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Those above worlds are for 3 scum alive fyi

 

I disagree with this {Taure/Riley/Kalas} fundamentally. If you are town, I think you'll regret this a lot, as I suspect only one of the three is scum.

I know I'm not for a start. Of Riley and Kalas, I think only one would be scum, though I'm pretty 50/50 between the two, as they're more or less interchangable in my mind in terms of gameplay so far.

A Taure/Riley/Kalas team would just not make much sense at all from a Witch perspective. It would mean they adopted a strategy like this:

"Let's have one of us be highly prominent and make posts that piss several people off. Then the other two of us will be suspiciously quiet - so much so that people will start looking at us simply because we're posting so little"

Doesn't sound at all like a great plan.

As I've said before, it is surely almost certain that one of the witches is playing a strong pro-town, very reasonable role. From my perspective that means one of Citrus OR Sesc OR Cobalt. Then they'd have their "chameleon" player, that's fontisian. And finally they'd have their "lay low" player, which is Kalas OR Riley.

---------- Post automerged at 10:19 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:17 PM ----------

Oops, forgot Tyrene. Hard to categorise: early game I'd say s/he'd fit the "pro-town" role, but later I'd say the "chameleon" role because of the difficulty of reading the player switch.

---------- Post automerged at 10:20 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:19 PM ----------

OR Waco.

/ten

---------- Post automerged at 10:23 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:20 PM ----------

Since that got a bit messy, to summarise:

Witch structure:

"Pro-town" role: Citrus OR Sesc OR Cobalt
"Chameleon" role: fontisian OR Tyrene
"Lay low" role: Kalas OR Riley OR Waco Kid

Newcomb: more or less confirmed town, unless Jan/Kalas was the priest.

 

Not a witch. Can confirm that there are 2 witches left. If I die, it's because they killed me. I'll claim role right at the end of day if needed. I'm assuming I'll die tonight though. If I dont, well I'll figure it out.

As for reads. I always fuck up and lose trains of thought. And I was swindled super hard last time I took read walls seriously. So im just gonna doing things. Feel free to hate me for it.

 

Okay, here's where I am, figuring out the game-wise:

There are some worlds that make sense if Kalas was a hit.

There are *less* worlds that make sense if Kalas was a miss - Citrus, I'm not getting the logic where it's Riley/Taure/Sesc in that case always. Walk me through it.

If we assume that Kalas was a hit - and I agree with Cobalt and Citrus here, if Kalas was a miss I think Oracle/Gravedigger would have probably outed and given us the bad news? Because if that's true we need that information bad because we're at 3 wolves / 6 town and that's hella bad? Yeah. So we have to assume Kalas was a hit.

I mean there's some outside shot that Oracle totally went off the rails and didn't target me, and Gravedigger didn't dig Kalas and they're both like ??? But that's not really worth considering.

Yeah. Kalas was a hit, if he wasn't then someone would have told us.

So. Anyone read Kalas for spew? Let's do that.

He's got 29 posts, so I won't quote all of them, but here are some possibly relevant things he said:

This is + Tyrene, in my opinion. I can't see Kalas trying to distance/bus in like his third post of the game?

Yeah, this reads as "not wanting to get hands dirty with town-on-town violence." Another + for Typhon.

This pings as "nudging a partner to get it in gear." Like he's giving Sesc a pass for now and hoping he'll kick it up? I'm... unsure about the fonti thing. He's just throwing her a cookie. Not sure if that's good or bad for fonti. Kinda good, I think? Like, I can see if Kalas is scum and fonti's town, he knows fonti's town and is trying to be noncommittal on her.

combined with:

Makes me think he's soft-defending Sesc by setting up Cobalt at some point.

Asking me to go into depth on Cobalt, who was my strongest townread at the time. I told him to buzz off, basically, but - could he have been hoping for me to expand on my town read and leave it open to him poking holes in it? He even follows up on it here.

This post, lol. Pretty sure Snowvon responded to that by putting "DOB target: Kalas" in his QT ^_^

Here is a big meaty post where Kalas goes over fonti/Sesc. Some highlights:

It really seems like Kalas is medium-to-hard defending Sesc here. And then kinda butting against fonti here:

Talking directly to Sesc here. The way he's putting pressure on Tyrene here is agreeing with a lot of what I was thinking about early D1 Typhon, and under the assumption that Kalas = witch, I'm thinking he just spewed Tyhpon town here a la setting him up and egging me on to go after him. And Sesc is looking more and more like a spewed wolf.

Hard-defending Sesc.

Cobalt, I'm eagerly awaiting your Sesc case.

Reading Kalas for spew here has me moderately convinced he just spewed Sesc a witch.

Cobalt, Citrus, you guys are the most engaged and I'm reading you both town, please weigh in here? Is this a thing?

And if you agree, then Kalas/Sesc/???

I'm still on Riley - he really really blatantly softed an info role and then shut up about it. Kalas/Sesc/Riley, and if that doesn't end the game we lynch Taure for the high crime of openly howling ITT, /game, is where I'm at, pretty much. And throw in fonti as a self-resolving problem: light townread, but if she's still alive on D3 and the Priest doesn't check her tonight, then LOL wtf. Or Jan was the Priest, or something?

Yeah. Townreading Cobalt/Citrus. Riley/Waco are like ??? do something. Taure/Sesc hard Finger of Suspicion.

I want to hear some Fonti Thoughts from you guys (Citrus and Cobalt). It kind of seems like we've been dancing around her all games. Does Kalas/fonti/??? make sense, and if so who is ???

 

I... do not know what to think of this.

For a start, I don't know whether to believe you. I mean, if there's actually 3 witches left, then convincing everyone there's just two would be a pretty strong move. And with the Necromancer's ability, if Jan was the right role then you could get away with claiming it to convince everyone of the above.

But the costs of disbelieving you when you're actually genuine would be rather high.

Gah.

I kinda wish you hadn't said what you had, even though it's potentially good news (day one scum lynch... in a manner of speaking). It hasn't made me much more confident about the state of play, but if you are genuine, it's definitely endangered you...

And if you're not, us not being able to know the target of Angel protection would explain away any continued survival.

Gah.

---------- Post automerged at 10:49 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:48 PM ----------

Above is all at Riley. Newcomb ninja.

 

1000x times this. If Jan was the right role and Kalas was town, this is Riley/???/??? going for the win.

The fact that you're the one who brought it up, Taure, makes me think you can't be with him in that world, though.

Argh.
Cobalt. You said something about my big green thing on Taure being wrong. How was I wrong?

 

The real problem is what to do about it.

I guess the most cautious move would be to hold off on any lynch and encourage the priest to investigate Riley next.

But this leaves open the problem of if the priest is dead/dies between now and then.

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Only way to get around the death problem is to say the priest outs themselves regardless of town or scum read on Riley, but that has obvious drawbacks.

---------- Post automerged at 11:04 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:00 PM ----------

To clarify before someone jumps on me: hold off on any lynch of Riley. I'm not advocating a no-lynch.

---------- Post automerged at 11:07 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:04 PM ----------

I mean, I'm glad you think that, but it probably shouldn't switch your view on me. If I were scum, pointing out the problem with Riley's post - which pretty much everyone would realise is a problem - would be an obvious way to try to earn brownie points.

---------- Post automerged at 11:08 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:07 PM ----------

Also, pointing this out would also be a great way to earn brownie points.

As would that.

Hum.

 

Ya know, I think Riley just might actually be town

---------- Post automerged at 05:33 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:29 PM ----------

Potential scumteams B:

Kalas/Fontisian/Waco
Kalas/Fontisian/Taure
Kalas/Sesc/Taure

Assumptions: Scum!Kalas, Sesc/Fontisian unaligned, Sesc/Waco unaligned, Town!Newcomb, Town!Cobalt, Town!Riley

Kalas/Sesc/Riley
Kalas/Taure/Riley
Kalas/Fontisian/Riley

(in the event Riley is actually scum and Kalas is still scum, for posterity's sake)

---------- Post automerged at 05:34 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:33 PM ----------

Kslsd/Fontisian/Tyrene is also a possibility, forgot to add that one

 

Man, the deaths of Jan and Snowvon have definitely decreased post volume XD

 

I will be home from work in ~6-7 hours.

Newcomb, all I meant was that your green thing on Taure was not so green. As in, not as big of a green to make it a null with your red thing. Can't remember the details while I'm working.

Riley, you do know that if you're not the gravedigger, and the gravedigger did not go off last night, the witches will know you're the Oracle and you'll be souped?

Since Kalas was a witch my best guess is Sesc/Taure. And Citrus, note how Taure just cast doubt on Riley's info claim. That's precisely what that team would do.

 

So you think we should just blindly accept it?

Seems to me that's equally as foolish as blindly rejecting it. Priest investigation is surely the way to go. Silence equals town, priest speaks up if Riley is scum.

There's a risk that the priest is dead and we get a misread on Riley, but even if that risk materialises, we're in no worse a situation than we are now, since y'all seem so ready to accept him as telling the truth.

 

Hmm. I've been a bit distracted as of late. I'll do a re-read and figure stuff out tonight.

Right now, I am still townreading Citrus, Riley, Taure and Cobalt and have trouble seeing us lynching outside of Sesc toDay.

That leaves what, Newcomb, Typhon, and Waco? I don't think Newcomb and Typhon can be aligned, so there's probably at least one between Sesc and Waco.

I would like to hear Sesc's top scum read with reasoning.

 

Only way Newcomb is scum is if either Kalas or Jan was the priest. If Kalas/Jan was priest and Newcomb is scum, then Citrus is probably scum along with him.

Seems rather unlikely for both Citrus AND Newcomb to be witches. They're both really prominent pro-town players. On top of that, the chance of Jan/Kalas being priest is quite low.

 

You know, I promised myself if you hadn't posted by the time I checked the thread again I was going to vote you?

I guess I can wait 12-18 hours longer for you to post something substantial