I'm going to bed now. I won't vote before I go, since there's still a lot of hours left in this day. However, for the reasons I outlined in #615, I will say before I go that my top lynch would be fontisian.

---------- Post automerged at 02:04 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:57 AM ----------

To summarise, those reasons are:

1. Fonti's self-confessed trolly attitude, which at first I accepted at face value but has become more suspicious with time (both because it hasn't been dropped, and because when combined with other events it feels more suspicious).

2. A sustained belligerence towards Jan, confirmed town, which included voting to lynch him.

3. A pre-emptive attempt (with Citrus) to shift blame for Nae's lynch onto me before he was even lynched, implying some kind of knowledge that Nae was going to prove innocent.

4. Citrus calling fonti scum at #542 and #546. If Citrus is town, then his suspicions lend weight to my own (wisdom of crowds). And if Citrus is scum disguised as a strong pro-town player, then the posts still fit a distancing effort.

 

For the record, point 4 is a bit silly Taure. The whole point of coming up with reasons is to see what makes more sense to find the truth. Giving "A leads to B" and also "Not A leads to B" is pretty useless, because it doesn't do anything useful. At least logically it doesn't do anything useful, I guess it's mafia-useful in the sense of "B is likely because [with A it is more likely] and [without A it is more likely], so yeah maybe ignore me never mind lol

---------- Post automerged at 10:36 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:13 PM ----------

You know, I think I see Nae'blis and Snowvon reading this thread more often than the rest of you put together.

 

Spoiler alert: If I don't have to post anything when borrowing Von's computer or phone, I don't bother to log out of his account. Which actually leaves a huge potential for cheating. Oh well.

 

Moderator Note: Going to nip this in the bud and say that mafia in general relies on a trust factor of the players, and that I'm trusting you not to abuse this in any way, shape or form.

The slightest hint or thought will resolve in modkill, blacklist, blah, blah.

Just didn't want it being a distraction to game.

Carry on.

 

Some thoughts before bed:
Citrus is really, really town. This read worries me a bit, because he's probably the most capable at faking, but I will ride with him to the end of the game.

Riley is town.

The Oracle and gravedigger should never specify which they are.

I could see a Sesc/Newcomb team where Sesc jumps with Irene's pressure on Newcomb. If the priest has a red check on Newcomb, I would advise outing it. If you are the priest and you did not check Newcomb or Sesc, then please get around to do that.

On that note, Sesc and Irene/Typhon are never aligned, because Sesc would never buddy a partner like that. Also, Kalas played a fairly instrumental part in getting Nae'blis lynched over Sesc, and I don't think he bothers if they're both town. If someone has any evidence to the contrary on that, now is the time to provide it.

I like Cobalt's willingness to confront Irene and admit to his mistake regarding Citrus. He also feels less flaily than the one mafia game I've seen from him.

The Jan kill was weird. I intend to look closely at his posts to figure that out.

---------- Post automerged at 12:45 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:44 AM ----------

Oh, and please try to avoid crumbing your role. Things are probably already too narrowed down.

---------- Post automerged at 12:47 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:45 AM ----------

Lastly, Newcomb read a Tinyhunt game on fantasystrike where beruru did not receive the lump but was wildly townread for going for it. I think it is possible that he was hoping for the same result.

---------- Post automerged at 12:48 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:47 AM ----------

*widely, not wildly.

It's late. Night.

 

Do you still think we should lynch Sesc Fontisian? Especially considering you recommended a priest check on Newcomb/Sesc...?

 

Newcomb

From the top, shall we?

We have already established why this had Sesc read as scum from right off the bat. Instead of offering any thought or opinion of his own, all he does is buddy Irene's post and vote Newcomb right off the bat. We went over this time and time again in Day One, and most of us agreed that there was nothing inherently scummy about Newcomb's plan if he received Lump, given that the priest would thereby check him night one so he had nothing to gain by moving forward with that plan as a witch.

Thus, Sesc's immediate hop onto Irene's post was one of two things, as I discussed earlier:

- Witch buddying town!Irene so as to not draw her attention or ire (which it did anyway, given that he just jumped agreement with her post)
- Witch / witch buddying, so that they wouldn't need a distancing tactic. Playing so obvious as to not be obvious, a little layer of WIFOM there.

Hey, this actually raises a question. Sesc - if you yourself had to point out and correct that Citrus's post implies that he voted you after your first post and not before, why would you tunnel in on me so hard later for making that mistake?

He's asking me this question when I admitted my mistake - I had thought that Citrus's vote on Sesc was after, and not before Sesc's first post.

Now why would he ask me why I would think that, if Citrus himself had a post that sort of implied that he voted Sesc for his first post, which was corrected later? It's pretty clear why I think that. Irene followed that line of thought as well until we were both corrected, and yet I'm the one that got tunneled on for it:

Here he's trying to discredit me for making a bunch of longer posts early on analyzing behavior and stuff and going after Irene for a little bit early on to put pressure down. Why is he trying to make it look like I'm not actually doing anything? Everyone else agreed that my mistake of the order of Citrus's vote and Sesc's first post was just that, a mistake, and yet Sesc has to keep implying that I either did it for a reason or just have not been reading the thread, when clearly I had been reading plenty as an active poster at the time.

Further tunneling on that one mistake. Also, I didn't make an entire argument on it, all I did was mention that part of my townread on Citrus was because he came to the same conclusion I did about Sesc and voted with it, which was when I mixed up the order. But okay, you tried.

First of all, hypocrisy, because he's calling Font a tunneler for going after him for much the same things that I had been arguing with him over for a good portion of the phase. Secondly, I don't even know what that second paragraph was. Is he trying to placate me here so I don't go in further, or is he trying to back off of me for a little bit? I don't like that paragraph, at all. It looks a lot like, "oh, thanks for explaining, let's get this issue buried so it doesn't bite me in the ass later on".

Sesc also uses the phrase "on the off chance of being wrong" more than once, I'll get to that.

OKAY, THIS IS WHERE IT STARTS GETTING RIDICULOUS.

FIRSTLY, he says that he doesn't like the Newcomb issue because there wasn't a soft claim, but Newcomb was calling to get checked. Now WHY, pray tell, would Newcomb push for the Lump and double down on it as a call to get checked, if he were a witch? Like, this entire line of reasoning from Sesc is completely contradictory, he doesn't like the post, but the reasons why he doesn't like the post are precisely why Newcomb is more likely to be town because of that post.

Then he goes on to say that Irene and I had reactions that were just drama, even though both of us went into detail and I put some decent pressure on Irene to see what I had to work with. All of this wound up with Irene reading me as town - he also follows the false line of reasoning that I also found Irene town after, which I did not and more than once reiterated that I still had a scum lean on her, and it wasn't until much later that I leaned town. So why is he so worried about calling out Irene and I as finding each other town immediately after that whole thing?

Unless he's worried of town!Irene and town!Cobalt buddying up and taking him down?

And then he nominates himself for Lump, which is just, lmao.

I asked, "Why do you find it so difficult to believe that two people can argue over a clash in policy and then end up reading each other town?" To which he replies:

So first the posts between Irene and I were needless drama, now they're pre-defined? Which is it, Sesc? Was it planned or was it needlessly overdramatic and good enough for a Broadway stage?

Contradiction upon contradiction. Tsk tsk.

This is a reply at fontisian, who said that Sesc had been asking and tunneling on me about nothing, no scumhunting, no actual gameplay.

So here he's trying to say that, even though everyone else agreed it was an honest mistake, and he himself had to correct Citrus who implied the wrong order in an earlier post, that there was either an out of game distraction or I'm a witch because I got the order wrong.

Here we go again.

And then he says it's just incompetent and you shouldn't play mafia if you get the votes wrong at one point? What kind of OMGUS post? Fuck that shit.

The now-townfirmed Snowvon at one point posted a list that had Kalas, Sesc, Nae'blis as the bottom three in orange as witch reads. Sesc quoted this, and:

Why is Sesc so concerned about he and Kalas being listed as a team, when we're pretty sure / almost positive Kalas was a witch now? Hmmm?

Basically, I'm almost positive they were on the same team. Of all the potential witches that most of my towncircle has read, Kalas was the lower poster, so Sesc probably didn't anticipate him getting shot anytime soon, and thus would be free to ask questions about why he and Kalas were on someone's list together. Because clearly, witch!Sesc would know Nae was town, so Kalas is the one he's concerned about.

Speaking of Kalas, we've also already pointed out posts in which Kalas hard defended Sesc - and since neither of them expected Kalas getting popped anytime soon, that would be a safe thing for them to do as teammates early on.

The evidence just piles up.

This post is a goldmine. I already went off on it in my post-D1 rant, but there are some juicy bits of detail in here I want to highlight.

Throwing in Kalas with Jan and Citrus, one of which is dead town and the other of which is widely townread. YET AGAIN, didn't expect his teammate to get popped so it's safe to clear him a little bit.

First of all, I disagree with his read on Taure because everything about the way Taure was posting in day one was scummy and unhelpful, and I definitely went enough into that early on. And then he says Newcomb didn't stick out to him much - okay, hold the fucking phone.

So first, you really dislike Newcomb's plan, for contradictory reasons as I discussed earlier, especially the reactions of Irene and I, and now he didn't stick out to you much?

Contradiction upon contradiction upon contradiction.

Screw the first paragraph. Holy shit, I already went off on that so I'm gonna go ahead and not.

Now he's going for Waco, which is a TOTALLY safe target. Waco's dead null for pretty much everyone at this point, and Sesc gets to distance himself from the Nae'blis wagon.

Riley actually voted Sesc, which is the reason for the switch, so Sesc basically says he's a horrible lurker and to start playing or bow out. Looks like OMGUS to me.

Aka, Sesc got mad that he couldn't distance himself from the townwagon so he slung some shit Riley's way. Riley who we are pretty sure is town at this point.

More clearing / defending Kalas, and then meh on Waco and Snowvon.

Also, if the post-by-post of Nae'blis was downright decent, why did you vote to lynch him?

Holy crap, the contradictions.

Firstly, yet another contradiction on Nae'blis. Make up your fucking mind, man.

Then, he admits that none of his reads are strong enough wherein he firmly believes that person is a witch. So how exactly did he help? Right, he made sure the soft lynch on Nae'blis happened and watched with glee when Nae popped Snowvon, but then Von popped his teammate.

OMGUSing me.

After this, he then proceeds to make the LONGEST POSTS HE'S EVER MADE IN THIS GAME - all with the aim of discrediting me, my current reads, and the posts I've made so far this phase.

So why is he suddenly putting so much effort into those posts, which I'm not gonna quote because this is too long already, if only to get his ass off the chopping block as quick as he can?

This is where he repeats the "on the off chance you're wrong" thing. I don't like it. He keeps trying to force everyone to pull up alternative scenarios in which he's NOT a which, no doubt to try and distract us after we lynch him and we aren't sure which way he's flipped.

Mmkay, I'm done now. Let's vote Sesc please.

---------- Post automerged at 01:32 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:32 AM ----------

^lol, mess, *witch, not which. It's late.

 

Yo, Citrus. Curious about this. Are you making worlds? Because if so, I want to bounce some ideas off you about the Kalas/Taure/??? world.

---------- Post automerged at 12:59 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:43 AM ----------

And Cobalt, I'm getting to your Sesc post. I'll hash it out with you tomorrow but tl;dr, I think some of the contradictions you pointed out aren't black and white. Like, it's only a semantic contradiction or a surface one? I can't quite articulate it. It's... not as black and white as you're making it seem. BUT I agree with you on the Kalas stuff. I think Kalas spewed Sesc as a witch, and the evidence is pretty compelling. At this point we're kinda taking Riley at his word, so... yeah, scum!Kalas implies scum!Sesc to me. I missed that Snowvon thing, btw:

At this point I'm voting for Sesc EoD - I would do it now, but I haven't seen a vote count in a while and with Lump I think it might put him close to hammer range? And that's, er, not good at this point, right? I saw people in the last two games warn people off doing that, at any rate.

 

Citrus has been making worlds, yeah.

Btw, Citrus - hard witch lean is my read on Taure atm.

 

You here, Cobalt? Talk to me about Kalas/Taure/Sesc. I'm pretty sure I remember Taure trying to push the lynch off Sesc yesterday, is that accurate?

 

Taure actually jumped on the wagon for a split second - then moved off very quickly when he realized I was the only one who had actually voted Sesc thus far, and the momentum of the lynch wasn't going to pick up.

For me it looked like Taure jumping on an optimal bus vote and then discrediting my wagon since it wasn't going to happen.

 

Hmm... I mean it did happen really fast. You really think scum!Taure would just jump that hard at the opportunity to bus D1 with no flips?

---------- Post automerged at 01:13 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:12 AM ----------

Hang on -

Not sure I get what you're saying here?

---------- Post automerged at 01:15 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:13 AM ----------

Let me pull up the relevant part of the game.

 

Font was the only other person who voted with me on Sesc when this occurred:

Doesn't want to lynch Sesc but does anyway when Nae had almost enough for a soft lynch? Blames me for strongarming / blackmailing when I wound up being right? Check.

Says the Nae'blis lynch has failed when in reality it was the only thing that was going to happen? Acts as if me not budging = Sesc's lynch is inevitable? Check.

Looks like a bus to me.

Acts like Sesc STILL has the highest chance of success even though that wasn't the case.

These posts were all 17 minutes apart.

Looks like a godawful flip flop to me.

---------- Post automerged at 04:17 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:15 AM ----------

"Obviously my vote switch was premature - the Sesc bandwagon seemed greater than it was, but actually it was just Cobalt's volume of posting XD"

That was what I was referring to when I said discrediting my wagon. He basically amounted it to my frequent posting and not any actual basis.

 

Okay, those are the posts unless I missed something. Reading and digesting.

---------- Post automerged at 01:18 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:17 AM ----------

fucking LOL

ULTIMATE NINJA

 

Just posted @ those, keep up.

---------- Post automerged at 04:18 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:18 AM ----------

Oh man, it so bothers me that we can't embed gifs here.

I was gonna post an epic ninja gif.

 

God damn. That was epic. Let me stop laughing and then actually read those ^_^

---------- Post automerged at 01:25 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:20 AM ----------

Okay, how does scum!Taure say this about scum!Sesc?

That's ballsy as fuck, especially for how much Taure emphasizes that everything was up in the air, his reads were bullshit, etc.

 

I largely agree with this on Colbalt's post, with the reservation that I don't assume Kalas was a witch. In particular, I feel like a lot of Cobalt's "the evidence piles up" was a real stretch - would have been a far more convincing post to focus on the really powerful evidence, such as the apparent Kalas-Sesc team-up, rather than bulk it out with weak ideas.

For example, calling Sesc out on arguing primarily with Cobalt for a mistake Citrus also made ("Now why would he ask me why I would think that, if Citrus himself had a post that sort of implied that he voted Sesc for his first post, which was corrected later? "). Cobalt says Sesc focusing on him and not Citrus is suspicious. But this is quite simply explained by normal human factors: the way Cobalt posts invites people to focus on him, since it's often a) belligerent and b) obnoxious. It's entirely natural to confront the person you perceive as your most prominent attacker.

But yeah, the Kalas stuff is convincing, if Kalas is a witch.

To that end, I think the following should be done:

Day two: lynch ???
Night two: priest investigates Riley
Day three:

A) If Riley is town, then Kalas is a witch, and Sesc probably is too. Lynch Sesc.
B) If Riley is a witch, then Kalas probably wasn't. Lynch Riley.

This seems to be the most sensible route to take. If we lynch Sesc today, we're taking the risk that Cobalt's reads on both Riley and Sesc are correct. If we follow this plan, we get to lynch someone with far more confidence tomorrow, and still lynch someone today. It's a plan with much lower risk than simply going after Sesc now. With the village/witch balance so close, we need all the confidence we can get.

 

I think the fact that Sesc was Taure's "most trusted" is bullshit in the first place because there are holes all over Sesc's posts and pretty much nobody thought he was actually town afaik.

Probably a bit of WIFOM in play if we assume it's one of those too obvious to be witch plays.

---------- Post automerged at 04:29 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:28 AM ----------

...all I'm getting from this is stalling a day to avoid a Sesc lynch toDay.

---------- Post automerged at 04:30 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:29 AM ----------
Newcomb - am I alone in thinking that Taure just made a really long post to semi-agree with me and not draw my ire, while trying to get it in our heads that we shouldn't lynch Sesc today?

---------- Post automerged at 04:30 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:30 AM ----------

Also, Definitely Not Taure, your plan hinges on the priest coming out with a clear or a red on Riley. How exactly is a reveal like that good for us?

 

See this is my whole thing about Taure. Level 1, just openly howling ITT. Level 2, obv!town Too Wolfy To Be A Wolf. Level 3, actually a wolf. It's WIFOM City.

 

And your thoughts on Taure's proposed plan, which could simply just be stalling a Sesc lynch?