Taure, the problem with your plan is that Riley is town. We are going to pick a world (Riley is mafia or Riley is town) today and then run with it so we have the best possible chance of winning in that world. I am picking the world where Riley is town. The priest should not check him.

I believe Riley is town because he has historically been a very cautious player and not prone to fakeclaiming without reason. If he were to claim on the verge of death, then I would be less willing to believe it. I also read Kalas's posts again, and I do think he was a witch.

 

But this is a classic Pascal's wager, and you're choosing to bet on atheism. It doesn't make sense.

We have four cases:

Riley is town, we follow Cobalt's plan. Town does okay.

Riley is town, we follow my plan. Town does okay.

Riley is a witch, we follow Cobalt's plan. Town loses.

Riley is a witch, we follow my plan. Town is in a bad situation but still has a remote chance of winning.

It makes no sense to bet on the course of action with the greatest tail risk, if you have a safer bet available.

I'll accept that, if Riley is town, Cobalt's plan will have us win faster and more convincingly than my plan. But I think my plan would still deliver victory.

 

I have been convinced a to do a reread, at some point today

 

Taure, I am less certain of your plan's ability to deliver a victory in the world where Riley is real than I am of Cobalt's plan. Since I am assuming Riley is real, I prefer Cobalt's.

 

Moderator note: While not strictly necessary, making vote and elect votes on a new line, and colored would make my life a lot easier. See Citrus' post #16.

Vote Count #7
Sesc (4): Citrus, Typhon, Cobalt, Fontisian
Riley (2): Newcomb, Lump the Friendly Panda
The Waco Kid (1): Sesc
Typhon (1): The Waco Kid

Abstaining (3): Riley, Taure

With 10 votes alive, 6 is soft lynch, and 8 is hard lynch.

(Let me know if there are any mistakes, or just clarify your vote in your next post if it's not what you think it should be)

Day End Timer - 31 (ish) hours remain! (roughly)

 

Eido, you've got Newcomb voting for Riley twice.

---------- Post automerged at 06:49 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:49 PM ----------

Wait never mind.

 

Edited it for accuracy, I guess!

 

For those of us who had forgotten about it entirely, Waco's anti-Typhon post is at #573.

 

Okay Sesc, I think you're town now. We can lynch Riley.

 

Um, is that a joke, or are you serious?

 

Sykeeee, you'da thought.

---------- Post automerged at 02:07 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:04 PM ----------

Like, what does Sesc honestly believe is going to happen if he keeps trying hard enough with those wall posts? It's not like we're lynching any town today. He's so firm trying to discredit me and my play style and everything. Why do that unless I'm right?

My plan is going. We lynch Sesc today, priest/oracle/clown go on Riley instead of Newcomb tonight, no outed red check next Day and we move forward down the list. Ezpz.

There's a very small world in which witch!Citrus is running circles around me but I like to ignore that one cuz I think this one is the right one.

---------- Post automerged at 02:10 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:07 PM ----------

Oh wait, Font, who is priest checking tonight if not Riley?

I'd rather feel safe with a soft confirm (eg no outed red check) with a Riley invest.

 

Wait, your plan is to check Riley? No, fuck that.

Have the the priest/oracle/clown grouping check Typhon, Waco or Taure.

 

fontisian .

---------- Post automerged at 02:12 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:11 PM ----------

Just to clarify, if there's an Oracle/GD that isn't Riley and has contradictory results, you not claiming will lose us the game if Riley is not town but I'm running with Riley as town.

 

I mean, obviously if Riley is lying about Kalas the Oracle or Gravedigger (not both) should counter claim.

 

I'd feel most comfortable with either checking Typhon for a soft town firm (aka no outed red check) or Taure for a final red check. Which do you think is best? Probably Taure or Waco when Sesc goes down.

Also, are we reasonably sure Jan was not the priest? Citrus fontisian Newcomb

---------- Post automerged at 02:14 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:13 PM ----------

As I said, either one of those roles with contradictory results to what Riley is saying (aka Kalas was not a witch) must counterclaim or we will lose.

 

Like fonti, I was under the impression that Cobalt's plan did not involve a priest check on Riley.

Am slightly happier with the plan now, though I'm still not convinced on the Sesc lynch first. Lynching Sesc means you're confident Riley is town, which is inconsistent with checking him.

 

Btw, the only one in the upper middle of my list that I could see potentially being a witch if my worlds are wrong is you, font. If you're giving me the runaround I'll be upset with you post game. Promise me you're not?

 

Isn't this the kind of thing we agreed not to discuss?

 

Taure, Riley can't possibly be lying about Kalas' alignment, because that would require both the Gravedigger and Oracle to be dead and the witch team knowing it. Since they couldn't have known Kalas' role in that scenario, it's very, very unlikely.