eleven viewers

eleven whole viewers, here to watch my shame and rage

 

Okay, so here's my theory I've been running with for the past hour or so.

1. I think Snowvon is town. I compared posting rates with this game and his scum one and he's at the top for this one, while he's little/bottom of the pack on his scum game. Sure, nonexistant sample size, but we add to that Snowvon's behavior (which, in the face of pressure, has been overwhelmingly townie and genuine). Also, I still think Atum never even bothered to mention his buddies, and the way he dismissed Moridin/Snowvon D1 reeks of scum knowing that both of them are town.

2. I think the scumteam is Tempus/fontisian/Newcomb.

The posts at the beginning of Day (where font and Newcomb voted Snowvon) read as incredibly crafted, like the scum wanted to drive this mislynch home. I have no idea what happened with the Angels (and I'm choosing to ignore all mechanical driven plans from now on, since it has been proven time and time again that they suck) but they probably saved Lucky because they wanted to tell us that Newcomb was scum?

Also the reasoning fontisian gave for "clearing" Newcomb still feels extremely weak, and I wasn't really comfortable with it. I think font is savvy enough scum to bus Atum out of the gates D1 to clear herself. I really hate how she has blinders on for Snowvon's behavior, as well. It's clear that she just wants the Day over with, and there's no way town!fontisian proposes to chain-lynch three people and expect to win the game. That's just incredibly naive thinking as town.

Newcomb.... I feel probably fixed the mistakes of his scum game last game and this is why he's being more active/contributing this game. Mostly he's here because of the Angel protect and his interactions with fontisian. And yeah once again the blinders on Snowvon's behavior is also pretty bad.

Tempus because fly on the wall needs to be squished.

---

Kind of want to lynch Tempus first even though I'm more sold on Newcomb/fontisian? Those two are basically tied at the hip at this point, but unless Snowvon experienced major changes in his scum game I still think he's town and that's where I'm basing all of these reads.

 

Had the plan gone through and if Lucky was also town (highly probable) 3 of us would have died that night leaving 3 witches vs 4 townies. Only due to numbers angels could have saved Lucky.
So they either followed the plan as it was expected or tried to give us one more day due to a great mistake we are making.

Two possible mistakes:

Newcomb is scum( worst case scenario)

A clear town for most people here is actually scum.

If Newcomb isn't scum and since he has 2 lives this day would have been a 5T vs 3W a mislynch and is 4T vs 3W and the last of them can kill up to 2 people.

The way I see this we are not in good shape.

 

Wait, I'm dumb.

Menace's Oracle check means that that team can't be a possibility.

:/

Back to the drawing board.

 

You are making me blush with all the nice things you are saying to me.

I get it you want to lynch me say as many times as you want.

 

fontisian you had better fucking answer me about Newcomb

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also

Oracle can lie about their check?

like Cobalt literally did it in a video mafia game of Witchhunt just last Tuesday

so yeah

 

I still think that Snowvon is town, but I might need to change some things because my theory no longer holds weight.

 

I'm trying to work through the plan and it feels like there's so much to sift through it's going to rip my head open.

Let's start with the fact that Luckylee was protected from a kill. That can only be the case if:

- he is the Gambler: absolutely impossible; Cobalt is townfirmed and told us that Jan was the Gambler.
- he was Angel protected: unlikely, as given the constraints, they should not have protected him unless he is town and Tempus is also town and having everyone think I'm scum is a preferable course of action, which??? would be fucking crazy because it means TWO WITCHES are in the upper townreads and we have really sucky reads.*
- he is actually the Survivalist: requires that scum!Kalas suicides as a silent DOB in order to townfirm Lucky and get a mislynch on whomever would have been checked as a result of Lucky getting saved; but Lucky is /always/ dying at endgame, so a soft townfirm on him is pretty useless? Way too risky.
- he was targeted by the Illusion Kill: this means Waco actually got shot, and Waco is claiming Hunter, which means Angels had to have protected Waco as there are no other roles in this game that could give him an extra life [besides Fanatic and Nurse, but Nurse is public and I am the Fanatic]. But it couldn't have been the Illusion Kill, because if Waco is town, then he definitely shot Lucky, which means the Angels definitely saved him, which is ??? from my POV.
*so, going back to Angel protection then, since that's the only mechanical possibility: basically, it is impossible for anything other than Angel protection to have saved Lucky (but I REALLY need someone to go through all the scenarios and double check with me). So...he's actually confirmed town. And I think it also kind of softclears Tempus too??????????? It's possible that the Angels went with the original plan to only protect Luckylee if Newcomb is scum.

I'm trying to keep things simple for my sake, so I have to believe that Coven used the Illusion Kill on Lucky. If anyone wants to correct me, do it from a POV of me being town, otherwise I will ignore you because any world that involves scum!me is garbage.

I think the only way I will ever allow myself in good conscience to die toDay is if you lynch Luckylee and have him kill me. Because from my POV, he is very likely a Witch. And if you kill us both, then town knows for sure that a Witch is dead. And if Lucky decides to kill someone else (like a higher-value townie or whatever), it confirms that we are unaligned because you all think he's townfirmed and town!Lucky would be completely stupid not to kill scum!me in that scenario. Only scum!him would deviate, because I'm way too mislynchable now. But none of that is going to happen because fuck everything.

Also anyone who is thinking of treating me as outed scum and mocking my posts and taunting me or whatever: please do not engage with me. This is a serious request.

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So I think

Luckylee comes out of this as townfirmed either way?

---------- Post automerged at 01:12 ---------- Previous post was at 01:11 ----------

like in any case

protect Lucky IFF he is town and xyz is scum

he was protected, which means scum is 100% in me or Newcomb, as no other targets were discussed

and if Newcomb is scum, then fontisian looks like ABSOLUTE TRASH for giving him that extra life and switching my name in for him

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so yeah scratch what I said about having Lucky kill me

also LOL A WITCH PROBABLY HAS TWO LIVES? that's fantastic

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if Newcomb is a Witch, then Menace is absolutely a Witch with him

which would make the scumteam Atum/Menace/fontisian/Newcomb

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also I agree that fontisian getting Atum killed is meh at this point since Atum was dead weight

I can't even remember who the other lynch candidate(s) were

 

How likely is Menace/font/Newcomb though? The interactions between Menace and Newcomb, if scum, would be expert scum play.

The gamestate is very confusing for me right now.

Unvote

 

Yeah, well, I basically look like confirmed scum so confusing is a bit of an understatement.

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ah, sorry, he didn't lie, he was honest about it to build trust

but still

lying is an option for the Oracle

 

/out of game: Von, if I stepped over a line, there, I apologize. I was happy we caught you, etc. Regardless of anything else happening this game, it would make me unhappy if I made you upset.

/back to game: The reason we're lynching you here is that, after last game with the plan to check me as Lump backfiring so spectacularly, I simply do not believe that Angels would do that. On a different forum, after a year had passed, maybe. I'd at least be willing to entertain the idea that a wire had been crossed somewhere. Directly following TinyHunt, where literally everyone agreed that the takeaway from that game was that if you had a plan, you stuck to it... I don't see it.

 

I dunno.

The Angels protected Lucky (unless someone can come up with another scenario), which means from my POV that Newcomb is scum because no other check targets were mentioned outside of me.

Vote Newcomb

And before some asshole tries to be funny:

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we're good

don't sweat it

more in my qt postgame just 4 u (search #Newcomb)

 

I think I'm going to give this game a night before I come back and re-analyze it.

Our complacency probably hurt us Yesterday.

 

The only way you are town Snow is if we are quite fucked and many of the town reads thus far are a mistake.

Well Font called this day an speedrun and while I can't find the post she said that the game might just be as easy as it seemed, so they sacrifice Atum and use people who lack content as cover up?

@Font why did you have me as a town read early in the game? You never answered Waco as far as I remember.

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I don't think they made a mistake, they did it on purpose. With so many dead townies checking the thread someone most have seen the change in the plan.

 

Going back to this:

I don't think it's out. I think it's possible the Angels believed I was townread enough that we'd interpret it as them scumfirming Newcomb, as was originally proposed.

Could be wishful thinking, but eh.

Waco and Lucky can't be scum together because

- lol Witches giving up their damn Nightkills for wine
- they were both shot and neither of them have defensive roles; one of them would have to be the Survivalist (which means Koalas has to be scum) and the other would have to have been Illusion Killed, in which case Tempus is scum because he's lying about Kalas and the exact team is [Waco/Atum/Kalas/Tempus]??? And that doesn't explain the Angel save on Lucky

 

Plus, you know, if Waco/Lucky used the Illusion Kill last night, how did Waco survive N2?

 

yeah

too many things to think about

 

Kalas almost certainly wasn't lying about his role.

 

yes, we get it, you checked him as Defensive, moving on