The list of people I trust is as follows.

Koalas
Demon
Jan
Blorcyn

I'm going to go with Koalas' judgement on Elemental, which means that we need someone else to go for. I'm suspicious of EvilOftenWins and those who didn't vote for TMNT, meaning lj, Tempus, weiyaoli, and Banks.

I'm going to go back over the thread and make a judgement from that.

 

Fonti dying sucks. No arguments there. But if I had protected Fonti you'd 100% be today's lynch.

 

I was trying to protect fonti, you koala.

---------- Post automerged at 09:54 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:53 PM ----------

If you hadn't roleblocked me, fonti wouldn't be dead.

---------- Post automerged at 09:56 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:54 PM ----------

I have a long event today for about 5-6 hours. I'll be back then. Don't lynch me in that period.

 

Seeing what my abilities were and the general power level of the mafia team so far you having additional doctor powers is.. questionable to say the least.

 

Vote Count #4

Spoiler

demonturtle (3): Titus, Plotless, Blorcyn
Citrus (2): fontisian, Jan
fontisian (2): Koalas, Citrus
Jan (2): ljtrigirl, Banks
Titus (1): demonturtle
Snowvon (1): weiyaoli
TMNTurtwig (1): Snowvon
Plotless (1): TMNTurtwig

Abstaining: Elemental, EvilOftenWins, Tempus Fugit

Back at d1 when the vote is still disorganised. I'm being dumb by voting demon, but scum are just probing for the moment. If I were scum here, I'd leave someone abstaining just in case you needed the momentum.

Vote Count #8 is after Fonti shoots Citrus:

Spoiler

Titus (6): fontisian, Snowvon, Jan, Plotless, demonturtle, Tempus Fugit
demonturtle (1): Koalas
Jan (1): Titus

Abstaining: Banks, Blorcyn, Elemental, EvilOftenWins, ljtrigirl, TMNTurtwig, weiyaoli

Fonti was pretty insistent that Titus never bussed, and looking back at the vote itself the reasoning were pretty weak. I'm pretty happy to put any of the people voting Titus as town.

Vote Count #9

Spoiler

Titus (9): fontisian, Snowvon, Jan, Plotless, demonturtle, Tempus Fugit, EvilOftenWins, Blorcyn, weiyaoli
demonturtle (1): Koalas
EvilOftenWins (1): Titus
Koalas (1): ljtrigirl
Abstaining: Banks, Elemental, TMNTurtwig

If the 'no bussing' rule is applied to Titus here, this seems pretty unbelievable. Problem with this is that Evil could so easily be taken as either a town player casting his vote to get scum or a scum realising he needs to cut his losses and delivering the Hammer to Titus.

Vote Count #2.3

Spoiler

TMNTurtwig (4): Plotless, fontisian, Elemental, Jan
Elemental (3): Tempus Fugit, TMNTurtwig, weiyaoli
ljtrigirl (1): Banks
Jan (1): ljtrigirl

Abstaining: Blorcyn, demonturtle, EvilOftenWins, Koalas

Put bluntly, I'm pretty sure that TMNT must be a better town player than scum player, because he floundered with explanations day1, and someone who does that is hardly likely to take a gambit by trying to lynch a fellow scummmate. To note: Evil calls out TMNT before vote #2.2 in post #183 which feels pretty genuine.

Vote Count #2.4

Spoiler

TMNTurtwig (7): Plotless, fontisian, Elemental, Jan, Blorcyn, demonturtle, EvilOftenWins
Elemental (4): Tempus Fugit, TMNTurtwig, weiyaoli, ljtrigirl
ljtrigirl (1): Banks

Abstaining: Koalas

Maybe I'm to paranoid about late votes, and this isn't that important at all. Koalas votes TMNT shortly after, so that's unimportant. However, I'm pretty suspicious of the 4 here who didn't vote for TMNT.

---------- Post automerged at 03:40 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:38 AM ----------

I'm hesitantly putting both Evil and Elemental above the other suspicious people. So the list goes:

Jan/Blorcyn/Demon/Koalas
Evil/Elemental
LJ/weiyaoli/Tempus/Banks

 

I'm pretty sure the 'no bussing' thing applies to Titus there Plot less. As in Titus wouldn't bus a teammate, or tell one too. Not that a teammate, especially an experienced one, wouldn't bus Titus.

 

Vote Count #3.1

Elemental (2): Plotless, Banks

Abstaining: Blorcyn, demonturtle, Elemental, EvilOftenWins, Jan, Koalas, ljtrigirl, Tempus Fugit, weiyaoli

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to soft lynch, and 9 to hard lynch

Day 3 ends in ~66 hours at this time.

 

Only on my phone at the moment.
our powerrole count rises quickly, and so do their interactions.

Demonturtle saw koalas visiting fonti n1.
The unknown neighbourizer had to visit fonti the same night.
Koalas claims jack of all heals, with n1 protect on fonti and n2 protect/roleblock on elemental.
Elemental claims some sort of defensive powerrole, that tried to save fonti last night & got blocked.

considering the amount of town prs and the fact that out of the three flipped scum only one had any power and we know the remaining one is a neighbourizer, if there is only one remaining.
I cannot believe that all claimed powerless are real. That is way to unbalanced for a setup run by eido, unless we are missing out on a scum powerhouse, or strong third party that decided to hold still for now.

I will look into the players and their claims/interactions as soon as I get to a computer, might take a little while.

Don't vote elemental just yet, we might want to go somewhere else, have to look at it on a bigger screen first.

 

I HAVE RETURNED. Okay, considering you already know that I have a protect role, I 'like tell the rest. I am the bodyguard of the town. On a night, I can target a player, and if they died, I would have died instead. So last night, if Koalas hadn't roleblocked me, I would have died instead of fontisian.

Should I tell my flavour name too?

---------- Post automerged at 05:41 AM ---------- Previous post was at 05:38 AM ----------

 

Ok, so his flip means that there's probably a mafia role that creates chats between two people. And given the flips, it was probably a one-shot.

---------- Post automerged at 11:20 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:18 AM ----------
Plotless- I think the biggest gap in your analysis is that Titus not bussing doesn't mean that his scum buddies would not bus him, so clearing everyone that voted him seems like a reach.

---------- Post automerged at 11:25 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:20 AM ----------

Balls. I have to run to a meeting, but I'll be back sometime.

---------- Post automerged at 11:31 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:25 AM ----------

I'm an idiot. My meeting is in an hour.

---------- Post automerged at 11:35 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:31 AM ----------

Ok. So, here's where I'm at with the claims.

1) I would like a single Vanilla Town to come forward and claim. I don't think there are any and Jan frequently saying there are too many PRs just feels like fearmongering. If you are a VT and willing to claim, please get thread present before doing so to make sure we don't have a whole bunch of VTs claim.

 

Fonti said TMNT neighbourized on her N1, but TMNT didn't have a power role. How is that possible that someone unknown neighbourzed her? I thought you could only neighbourize one person?

---------- Post automerged at 11:37 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:36 AM ----------

Because then wouldn't it have been TMNT, unknown scum, and Fonti in the same QT?

 

2) The following combinations are possible for Koalas/Elemental:
- Koalas is a scum roleblocker of some kind and Elemental is legit. Not likely since a) Fonti's ability was during the day and b) all of the other powers flipped have been one shots.
- Koalas is the scum chat maker and Elemental is scum. This is possible. At this point, the chat maker pretty much has to be scum or town would have claimed yesterday when TMNT claimed to have made their chat.
- Elemetal is scum that didn't put in the kill (maybe chat maker) and Koalas is town.
- Both Elemental and Koalas are legit.

I think it's unlikely that they are both legit. I think that Elemental is probably scum regardless of Koalas.

I think I still want to lynch Elemental.

---------- Post automerged at 11:45 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:43 AM ----------

There's a role at least in werewolf where you pick two other people and create a chat between them. Since TMNT wasn't a recruiter, it means that someone else created their chat. Since no one came forward yesterday to say, "TMNT is lying because I created their chat", the chat creator is probably scum.

---------- Post automerged at 11:45 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:45 AM ----------

Ok. So, I looked up Mafia Goon. Does that mean that not all scum can put in the night kill?

Did anyone get a chat today? That would invalidate some of my logic.

---------- Post automerged at 11:46 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:45 AM ----------

vote elemental

---------- Post automerged at 11:47 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:46 AM ----------
Elemental- You should share the rest of your info. Why didn't you immediately?

---------- Post automerged at 11:49 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:47 AM ----------
Banks- Why do you give less fucks than I do this game?

 

LJ, I'm Vanilla Town. Won't role name claim in case we can trap a scum into accidentally claiming the role.

Elemental, please claim your flavour name and paraphrase some of your flavour.

---------- Post automerged at 04:11 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:00 PM ----------

Also, it's modgaming a bit, but since Citrus already flipped as the conditional role cop/roleblocker, I find it unlikely that scum also have another role that was a part roleblocker.

It's possible both are lying, but Kalas must have an action since demonturtle tracked them N1. So he could be the chat creator, but in that world Elemental is also scum, since he would have no reason to lie being a bodyguard if he was town.

I think Elemental is never scum in worlds where there are only 4 scum, and is almost always scum in world where there are 5. Not sure how likely either are, will do a quick analysis in a bit.

 

Whelp, that blows that theory out of the water then.

---------- Post automerged at 12:22 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:22 PM ----------

Yeah. Roleblocker seems almost impossible, but it's the only way to have a scum Koalas/town Elemental combination.

---------- Post automerged at 12:23 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:22 PM ----------

Can you explain that?

---------- Post automerged at 12:25 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:23 PM ----------

If there is a cop cop that is a one shot and has used it on anyone being discussed, you should come forward.

 

Crap just accidentally lost my post I was writing on my phone. Will try again on my comp.

---------- Post automerged at 04:34 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:25 PM ----------

I think, even without knowing there is at least one VT, your theory doesn't make sense because we already had two mafia goon flips, and unless the scum team is hilariously unbalanced in terms of power roles (knowing at least one of them is also someone who can create a chat), the town can't have everyone have a weak (one-shot) power.


Well, Elemental can't be scum if there are only 4 because Kalas use jailkeeper on him in that world and fontisian still died. I forgot to note that it's also possible in the world where an anti-town indy had a kill and killed fontisian instead.

In a 5 scum world, I don't have that many suspicious people to go down the list of: pretty much all that remains is Elemental, LJ and Banks. So I think he almost has to be scum there.

---------- Post automerged at 04:44 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:34 PM ----------

So my personal rule of thumb is we definitely have 2 mislynches before we arrive at LYLO, and sometimes 2 takes us to MYLO instead.

So assuming 4 scum:

12/4 ML
10/4 ML
8/4 ML
6/4 ML
4/4 - LOSE

4 mislynches before we lose seems like too much to me. Even taking into account the desperado could have killed themselves (also giving us 1 confirmed town), that doesn't change the maths.

Assuming 5 scum:

11/5 ML
9/5 ML
7/5 ML
5/5 LOSE

This looks right to me, so I think it's definitely possible we have 5 scum around.

Assuming 4 scum and an indy of some kind (and also the worst case):

11/4/1 ML
9/4/1 ML
7/4/1 ML
5/4/1 ML (Potential LOSE here if the indy is antitown, or if the indy is a survivor)
3/4/1 LOSE

This looks possible to me as well, if the indy is not straight up pretty much town, since we would also presumably lose after 3 MLs.

So right now it seems pretty likely to me Elemental is still scum. Especially since I don't think his claim meshes with Kalas's claim well.

 

That's not what I said. I said that the early voters in VC #8 were likely to be town, but in VC #9 that any of the last ones could be bussing.

 

Doi. I keep thinking we've only flipped 2 scum. Yeah. Elemental can't be the 4th scum unless there's a Serial Killer, and Fonti was actually saved N1 by Koalas.

---------- Post automerged at 01:59 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:57 PM ----------

Then I likely misinterpreted your post. I also disagree completely on that logic, given the atmosphere and everything that happened. With scum getting so steamrolled early on, I think it's likely remaining scum was bussing.

I literally just saw a game like that where town killed two scum early, and one of them bussed the other two pretty hard at various points, sailing to victory in the end. That's not happening here.

---------- Post automerged at 01:59 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:59 PM ----------

Oh, and lots of people (including Banks) said that it'd be crazy for them to bus that hard.

---------- Post automerged at 02:00 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:59 PM ----------

It really really weirds me out that you can see who's watching. I hate that. I hate seeing people around but not posting. I hate seeing dead people watching. That is hands down the worst feature on this site. Like, I know that Jan and Tempus are both lurking.

 

So we have one VT confirmed which means there's almost certainly more. That's fine. Makes sense what with two mafia goons so far.

I'm still interested, rightly or wrongly, in LJs flavor claim. We all seem to have forgotten that that was quite unsettling.

I worry that koalas, as a neighbouriser, has skirted past us and I'm feeling less town firm on him.

 

What do you mean? I already claimed my flavor.

 

Yes, exactly and your flavour perturbs me. You could easily be any of the three parties.

---------- Post automerged at 06:39 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:38 PM ----------

Loki the old god, head of the new gods, who plays by his own rules.