But why would Jan push so hard for Rubicon's lynch when people were seriously discussing a plan of keeping him alive? One more day of keeping him alive to 'test' the plan would benefit a scum team. Especially if Jan was on the team then he would encourage the Kai lynch instead likely..

 

I kind of just want to pretend Rubicon didn't exist, the game is starting now, we're 7/2 and just lynch the scummiest person.

Which would still be TN.

trollolololol

---------- Post automerged at 06:13 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:57 PM ----------
fontisian

What are your thoughts on why we should trust Kai out of {Kai, TN, Jan, LochNess}?

---------- Post automerged 01-02-2016 at 12:25 AM ---------- Previous post was 01-01-2016 at 06:13 PM ----------

Has anyone re-read Proph after he flipped town? I have.

I think the team is either exactly Rubicon/fonti/KaiDASh or exactly Rubicon/KoalasTN/Jan.

Discuss.

I still want to lynch TN, because if TN is town KaiDASH is almost certainly mafia with fonti, and if TN is scum, KaiDASH is almost certainly town, fonti is 1000% town, and we can afford to PoE Jan/LochNess for the last one.

To back this up, I have a weird mishmash of vote logic, my independent reads, nonalignment pairs, gut instinct / gameflow, and some things Proph pointed out D1 about the early game that I think we're all forgetting.

I'm not ~100% confident on town!TN->scum!KaiDASH, but I'm close to 100% confident that scum!TN clears fonti and basically clears Kai.

And come on, TN is just mafia. Koalas wanting to info-lynch Proph to justify hopping on the wagon. Koalas building weird as fuck worlds based on a possible town Proph. Koalas voting late on Proph. TN pushing the absurd "Newcomb is third party" world, which, just fucking lol. TN reacting terribly to dLGN's case. TN voting for KaiDASH over Rubicon. TN continuing to vote for KaiDASH toDay with zero mention of how Rubicon's flip impacts his read on Kai. TN giving basically zero reasoning for his reads and votes.

I can come up with ways how some of those things might have come from town, but all of them?

Nope. Nope nope nope. TN's mafia.

 

So you agree with all i said newcomb?

Outside of the fact that you are not sure about me.
Good that we have some sort of idea to move forward.

Why do you think it is me with TN, after saying earlier that i cant be because i would lose to my own world? What exactly changed your reads on that?

 

It's possible you're proposing that PoE because you think we don't do it since you're not in the town block. And you did kiiiind of give yourself an out.

Mainly though I liked Loch's response to me, and if Loch is town then you're mafia in a lot more cases. I dunno, if Loch's mafia, she's faking lack of self awareness really well.

I'm just super focused on finding 1 town in Kai, you, Loch, and TN. It's never TN. Kai hasn't done enough to really be read past my gut townread, and though I think the wagons / vote logic makes Kai more likely town than not, it's too easy to see worlds where that was the play to clear someone.

So basically I'm trying to find one town between you and LochNess? And I've had moments where I think you're both town.

I think TN/Loch vs. TN/Jan is like... tough. Basically I'm glad we can PoE it if TN is scum.

Loch has the bad reaction to dLGN's cop check, which is a point in your favor. But Loch also has just seemed genuinely confused / straightforward in a lot of her takes on the game.

And I think it only loses to like, what? Jan/Loch? Jan/fonti? But you're never w/w with fonti. I'd certainly bet the game on that.

---------- Post automerged at 01:15 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:04 AM ----------

Oh right, so:

Basically agreed.

Except from my PoV, if we hedge with Kai, then lynch scum!TN, then it's not LochNess, it's LochNess or you, and I reeeeeeeally want to avoid a F3 of the three of us, or you Loch fonti.

fonti flipping town... uh. Yeah, that doesn't do anything. Scumflip would clear you and TN and make KaiDASH like 99% mafia, but... yeah, not a great lynch.

Eh, not convinced about the pairs here. Mainly because LochNess doesn't have many strong interactions in general. Plus from my PoV you have to factor in Jan into those, and, meh. Town LochNess flip doesn't do a ton for me, and at this point I think it's likely.

A LochNess lynch, while being very good, if LochNess flips scum, i am unsure if we have a lot of information to get from a flip either way.

Hm.

Well, assuming you flip town, that means... yeah that doesn't do much for me. You flipping scum would clear fonti and Kai. But if you flip town then it just means we're kinda polarized with it being fonti/Kai or TN/LochNess and maaaaybe some mix yeah that doesn't do shit.

So yeah, in general I agree with your analysis that TN or Kai should be the lynch toDay.

Maybe we should look at it in terms of exactly what either of them flipping town loses to in terms of worlds, and see which worlds of those look super unlikely, if any?

 

I don't even know what to do here.

TNs contribution today is essentially nothing - he's done little more than put a vote on me and hope for the best, so lynching outside of him here is absolutely absurd given that & how previous days went.

Making a more detailed case feels like wasted effort since I'd just be reiterating what's already been said about him and I don't know what else I should post about.

[Help!] Game is Hard (´･ω･`)

 

OH, speaking of putting my vote down

Vote: Newcomb

if i haven't already.

Because when meta is your only reason to scumread someone, there is something wrong.
Because in what universe does Scum!TN nightkill someone townreading him strongly.
I love how nobody even considers the above point because it would ruin their confbiased cases.

Protip: I'm not scum.

 

that feel when there's two active power roles but only 1 roleblocker.

 

Unvote
Vote tn5421

 

^ "meta reasons"

---------- Post automerged at 12:30 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:55 AM ----------

Like.... seriously TN, you have me second-guessing myself because I'm thinking if you were scum you couldn't possibly be this bad.

1. Why did you vote for Kai toDay, taking into account the wagons yesterDay? Your reasons for voting him were impossibly shallow, and didn't take Rubicon's flip into account at all. Go in depth here, talk about your evolving read on Kai.

2. Why are you voting for me? Be detailed. You can't think I'm scum with Rubicon, so if you're doubling down on your third-party nonsense, you need to explain a) why you think I'm 3P, and b) why I'm a scum-siding 3P that we should lynch over Rubicon's partners.

Because to me, it seems like even if you believe I'm 3P, then I'm, what - SK? No. No extra night KP shown. Hitman? No. No extra night KP shown. Survivor? But if you think I'm Survivor then I'm townsiding hard, considering how I sliced and diced Rubicon. I basically took Rubicon out to the woodshed and bashed his brains in with a rock.

So... what gives?

3. Why are you just dipping your toes into the water and not actually diving in and analyzing and making things happen and poking people and doing all those, you know, playing the game things? Is it because you're scum and you know you're a roasted duck and you're never getting out of this game alive? Because I can't think of another reason, and if you have one, please share.

Like... the only way you're not dying is if you actually start playing, so if you're town, do that. I really, really don't want to lose because you're town who couldn't be fussed to actually play.

---------- Post automerged at 01:50 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:30 PM ----------
dLGN;

You said you thought TN's first few posts felt towny to you. How so?

 

I'm going to garcia that and point you towards tn's first post. I think it's weird that scum!Kalas would have those notes to go off of or that tn would bother to fake it, especially considering the rest of his play.

 

That's an excellent point, especially the dissonance between faking those notes and then not giving a shit about trying to fake anything else resembling town behavior.

I assume you think the scum case outweighs this?

Also, can you talk about Kai for a few sentences or something? Like, I get what were you saying about the gut townread because I was totally there too, but like... anything else? Those Rubicon/Kai interactions D3, do you think that's a feasible plan if they were both scum? Or super unlikely?

---------- Post automerged at 02:18 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:09 PM ----------
dLGN you also had a re-read post where you went up to post 250 or so and called Koalas super town or something. Where'd you get that?

Basically I'm concerned that I think TN is super obvious mafia because he's being really really bad and that's different from being scum. But I still want to lynch him because holy shit, the cop check reaction. And his read on me makes zero sense. And like 5 other things.

Ughgggg. HELP.

 

i've been watching this thread hourly and hoping it would take off a bit without my involvement and it kinda did a little but it died again sooo. yeah. fonti is right that it was largely that first post, and I think that's what delphine picked up on, too. but I also agree that more recent content has been poor and that I almost naked voted tn for it just now. but i'll reread a bit and go back and reevaluate my townread based on early play - i think it had to do with koalas' reads. and then also thoughts on today and moving forward. in a weird spot bc i kinda liked lochness again and jan's planning as well, but that forces kai into being scum based on newcomb/fonti both being town and that's... idk. don't even want to think about what happens if tn flips town.

ugh, ok, brb.

 

If Tn's town, he's the most likely townie to throw and needs to be removed from the game regardless.

Kai believes in getting towncred for bussing a teammate. I don't think his d1 reflects that mentality.

 

So you think if TN's town, the exact team is Rubicon/Jan/LochNess?

 

Yes.
/ten char

 

I'd bet the game that:

dlGN's town

fonti and Jan are not w/w

Kai and Jan are not w/w

TN and fonti are not w/w

I'm pretty sure that:

LochNess isn't w/w with fonti

LochNess isn't w/w with Jan

And that's about it.

 

ok nvm don't think I support ever lynching lochness after reread. that was probably a poor shot attempt.

her questions toward jan here sound gamesolvey (at the very least likely unaligned?) and I find it hard that her reads onto a partner here would almost necessarily include exclusively the IDFK variety (rubicon read, koalas read, kaidash read, even the newcomb read). that's odd to me, for some reason.

 

lol yeah the LoversHunt thing is exactly why I read Loch/Jan unaligned. That's the weirdest scum conversation ever.

 

The scum team deciding to roleblock dLGN probably says something about their position.

 

I thought about that but it's wifom'y.

I mean, objectively, maybe you were concerned I'd shoot you. and uhhh idk I said I would hip fire at kaidash and while I never took that back it was dependent on a town!rubicon flip. I still am not quite sure where Kai's certainty came from, but I guess he's kinda towny? the problem then becomes tn is almost certainly Mafia and what is partner?jan's wincon here?

not sure if anybody else would suspect me to shoot them. Jan maybe because I was excited to flashwagon him d1? Newcomb bc I've tunneled him a bit?

otherwise I've gone against my early reads to Mafia-side a bit, it seems. =\