So where are you at Kai, who here is with Loch, who's antialigned and why ?

 

I'm pretty sure town can't lose here unless scum is aria + jan or newcomb.

But that scumteam doesn't fake kill aria n2 so it can't be that.

So I'm at "town can't lose" while I wait for replies to my queries.

 

Why are me+Newcomb not a viable "could lose to" world ? Seeing as either wagon currently would kill outside our world, us potentially getting two town kills in the night would put town in that scum world in a situation where it's 2v4 with scum having 3 lives in total and a potential Von!misslynch alive ?

 

I'm just openly wolfing here for a bit, would still like to know the answer but whatever.

 

You have not read bothered to read my posts with actual contend about the game, have you?
I will go through my thought process for you.

Yesterday i was sure there was one between von and Lochness, but didnt think it would likely be both because of Lochnesses attempt to kill von on day

After she used her Leeroy action at the end of the day i thought thought again about their interactions, because i assumed that would have always been the planned play.

I looked at Vons progression on Lochness, and he voted for 2 minutes on her before switching to waco, with the reasoning that starting a new wagon might be a bad idea.
Which is kinda meh .. i get the intend, but he also claimed to have a scumread on Lochness before that and never actually gave anything about that (that is in the post pozzai asked me to look at earlier)

He then voted a 2nd time for her, but only after the wagons swapped to cobalt. He didnt bother to vote for her at the time where the two of them were the lead wagons.

Considering her role i would assume he did not want to vote at a time where they were not 100% clear on who the priest is and who is not, i do not see town!von not voting on his topscum when he is the counterwagon.

And the reason was not that he was not around, in the in the 1,5 hours between his votes on waco and LochNess he posted 13 times.
So why exactly did he vote that late on his counterwagon?


I only just now realized that plotless actually was the first vote on Lochness, which makes the slot look better, just because if scum did not want to open her up to be a wagon why be the first to vote.


Anyways, i gave my reasons for believing snowvon and Lochness might be scumbuddies earlier today, and those are basically it.

After i gave my two cents about the snowvon side, newcomb came out analyzing the Lochness side, and basically came to the same conclusion.


He even has the same opinion about you kai, which would be that you are the deep cover witch, my reason for it was, because while your case on Lochness was ok, considering that the plan might be to use her power anyway, that was just the perfect moment to bus a partner.

That and her not using her power d1 and instead giving us a clear check makes most sense if killing the priest day 1 would have made his counterclaim look bad (because how would scum be that certain who the real priest is). But all that is highly circumstantial, and reading more the situation than your play in general, which feels close to your play last game.


Talking about the Pooless slot for a second. That slot is either our biggest boon or nightmare, and i disliked pozzais entrance into the thread a lot.
Stumbling over the fact that Plotless started the LochNess wagon, makes me feel a bit better, and there is a higher chance that pozzai is bad town and not just scum.
I want to have as much clarity on that slot as possible, because today might be the last possibility to force a judgekill on that slot, if we are unsure about it.

For me the 2 scum lie withing Snowvon, Waco, KaiDash and Pozzai.

Snowvon being by far the most likely scum, but also the one i want shot not lynched (no need to give them 2 kp tonight if he is scum).
That way if we lynch his partner today, and shoot von tonight the game is just over, and if we lynch a town within the other 3, scum still has only 1 kp.

After that it becomes hard, Waco i read town early on (like first 24 hours of the game), but snowstorm and him being busy erased a lot of that at this point.

Kai is the possible undercover wolf, talked about it.

And Pozzai .. i have no idea what he is doing so far, i know his case on me is not doing anything for town, but at least he is scumreading von as well, so that is a start.

Order right now would be Waco>pozzai lynch, Snowvon shot.


But i havent gotten a grip on pozzai, curious to see what happens once he has fnished with the thread.


Oh yeah my town are Aria and Newcomb, outside of the confirmed.

Leaving to cook dinner with friends and play some boardgames afterwards. Should be back around midnight for a bit (gone for 4-6 hours).

 

I have finished the thread, and how about you actually comment on my case on you instead of just calling me bad ? How about you analyse what I'm pointing out and decide whether or not there's some observations that makes sense even if you're town.

You're repeatedly directly avoiding talking about my points, instead just going to a "he's just bad or scum". Find flaws, bury me, do SOMETHING.

 

KaiDASH I think if they are town, their changed positions make sense after the public sacrifice. Can you answer my question about who the hunter should shoot? Also, a lot of people are saying that scum is doing okay this game (the dead priest). What makes you say otherwise? Also, if a Jan/Newcomb+me team wouldn't fakekill me, what scumteam would and why?

---------- Post automerged at 01:33 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:19 PM ----------
dLGN come back :'(

 

Like... no u?

My tone this game is nothing like TH5; in that game I pushed for the mislynches I wanted, like Riley and Sesc. I didn't even want to play in this game and replaced in because I was asked to. My single mission was to take Fluff's slot and remove it as a potential mislynch for witches, which I've done. I have some thoughts and theories about the PoE list, I have a pretty solid scum suspect in you, I have the means to kill you - if town doesn't lynch you, I'm shooting you toNight, so like... I feel pretty good about my contribution to the game so far.

I'm not voting you because I want to shoot you, not because I don't believe my own case. Why aren't you voting me?

You're the one emulating your TH5 game, where you weirdly focused on Taure to the exclusion of broad-strokes gamesolving, which you're doing here with me.

If you're town, either take a stand and try to actually get me lynched, or move on and try to do gamesolve-y stuff.

---------- Post automerged at 11:20 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:13 AM ----------

I actually made a note last night in my QT after Pozzai's entrance about a possible Loch/Jan/Plotzai team. Something about the Jan/Pozzai interactions felt kinda forced?

I kiiiinda think we just lose to that, though?

I mean, since you asked, I also think we're not looking especially great if you're a witch. Lol actually we might be super fucked if it's you/Jan, with the way Jan's kind of buddying me with his "and Newcomb's the only one doing stuff / thinks Kai is a witch and I think that too" which is like, suuuuuper PTSD flashbacks to last game only in reverse since it's not "wrong on fonti" it's "right on Kai" but like, meh, I don't even really believe in that world at all. Mainly because there's no room for Waco on that team and come on, Waco's just mafia.

To be honest, we probably should care about some of the edge case worlds now, because as last game showed it's super hard to talk those things out when it's just you, so yeah I'd be worried about a F5/F3 situation. But, meh, this is a 60% effort game. My sincere hope is that with my non-tank roleclaim / being generally towny, I'll be an Angel dodge NK tonight / tomorrow night and not have to worry about that.

 

Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat? Can you come on FS forums because I really need that psyduck emote right about now.

Can you give me some examples of exactly what you feel forced because you just blew my mind with that shit.

---------- Post automerged at 21:05 ---------- Previous post was at 21:00 ----------

I have very limited experience with you, would you say your Narutomafia play is a typical town!Waco play? If not, what did you do different that game compared to your normal play and why/with what endgame?

 

You think I'm more likely to be scum than Von, Jan, and Newcomb at this point?

 

Pozzai:

Basically, this sparked a bit of paranoia about both of you going 0-100 real quick.

My imaginary scumchat conversation goes something like this:

>Pozzai: Goddamnit I subbed into a scum slot. Oh cool Jan is scum too let's make this fun.

>Jan: Yeah I was trying to push a Judgelynch on your slot because I'm not townread and people won't go for it but I'll get credit for it, so let's just go against each other hard.

>Pozzai: Sounds good, we have meta with each other and should be able to pull off a believable tunnel.

Like I said, I don't really believe in this world.

But the thrust of the point is that Jan's frustration with the gamestate spills over into anger/scumread of you in a way that doesn't seem altogether natural to me, much like Jan's evolving scum->town read on me doesn't quite seem natural to me either.

 

The three I mentioned have all done things I would expect of them as a team member with Loch during day2.

I don't think a scumteam with both Von and Loch in it would expect to go through the day without one of them lynched, and would probably expect Von to have checked Loch's action and constituted the anti alignment harder.

Newcomb and Jan both tried to push the lynch away from Lochness, Lochness yesterday was not a big loss, and as such it feels odd to align in that manner when you know Loch is flipping scum sooner or later.

Granted a potential Newcomb(or Jan)/Loch/X (where x most likely is not Von or Waco) could've hoped for a misslynch, and then insta-activated Leeroy day3, but that would still make them look very sketchy.

Had a misslynch happened yesterday, a Leroy day3 and discounting potential saves would've brought the world to 4v2 and a succesful lynch that day would bring it to 2v1 the next day, question is, is it worth the gamble, and I don't really think so, unless the remaining scum is exactly survivalist.

So I see it possible in a world of Leeroy/kp/Survivalist world(survivalist can ofc be replaced by me for the rest of you), and plausible though less likely in any other world that those three would be teamed with Loch.

Getting back to your original question, I don't really know, what I suggested was merely a "if these things are true we're left with" train of thought.

If I lynched in the order of my individual reads, I'm losing to any world containing you.

---------- Post automerged at 22:37 ---------- Previous post was at 22:26 ----------

Hmm, I'm not seeing it as a whole, guessing that might be because I'm predisposed to throw that world out of the window.

In regards to Jan's frustration part, I can see that, but would I actively try to get him to actually stop just being an idiot and actually analyse my play, wouldn't it be more beneficial just to yell and scream about it?

If we assume Jan/Pozzai/Lochness:

If we just continue the screaming match and none of us gets lynched, it's great for us. If Jan gets lynched it's great for us as I get 2kp, and would most likely be fairly safe tomorrow.

There's basically no reason for us to try to get more analysis into the game from that pov, as that just increases the chances town can catch us in some bullshit.

 

Yeah, but making noise about wanting something to happen != that thing happening. See Jan/fonti last game with fonti trying to speedwagon Jan.

Like I said, I'm not especially concerned with that world. I think prooooobably you're just v/v, actually? But Kai asked about losing to edge worlds where scum are effectively distancing, and for me that would be it.

 

I think Jan could potentially be town, but he's not giving me anything to work with, so if that's how he's going to play it, my vote will stay where it is, he is by far the one I have the most individual scummy and hypocritical stuff written down.

Assume a Loch/Von/X world for a second.

Can you give me a single reason to why Von would not check/claim to have checked Loch and gone hard against him yesterday?

I can think of one, and exactly one reason. The team didn't think of it.

Lochness due to being new(don't really know much about her) and Von I would consider people that would be fairly weak mechanically, and might not think that through. But that would leave very few people left to be a possible third.

Like, that would eliminate Jan, you, probably Kai as I think he's rather calculated.

Would Waco consider the option? If yes, that pretty much leaves Aria, which means that basically everyone in the game had to read her wrong?
(I have for obvious reasons eliminated Plotzai from this, was I an outside person would definitely consider that spot as well)

Or am I just thinking about the whole situation the wrong way? With a setup like that I can't see scum hoping to keep 3 alive for long after that day1, so sacrificing a Leeroy day2 for priest would hardly be considered bad when both Loch and Von was potentials for lynching?

 

Ehhhh, you're not totally off base there, I just don't think you can categorically say that the scumteam would/wouldn't have done that.

I mean, Loch did out Aria as her fake Watchman check, which was kinda the middle ground in between (obvious mafia) ---- (clearing a non-universal townread). What I mean is, giving Aria as the clear was a hedge: giving dLGN as the clear would have basically been the "fuck it, Loch's dying and taking out the Priest" because that's just too unbelievable for RNG to have fucked us that much.

I think that speaks to the scumteam's mindset going into D2 - that is, they didn't commit to a hard bus with Loch right off the bat, they gave a fake check that was not great, but not terrible. So they always knew Loch dying was likely, but wanted to see which way the wind was blowing and if it was possible to win with three alive.

Thus, Von not checking Loch is kinda null for me. I totally believe he'd claimed to have checked Plotless as mafia because it fits with that "hedge" mindset. It's not so completely bad that we'd just autolynch Von, and Kai did give him kind of an out with a "just 50/50 it between Loch and Plotless". It's also something I could see town!Von doing as, like you said, he's not the strongest mechanically and wouldn't really feel super hardcore committed that checking Watchman would have been better.

OTOH, Von and Loch were competing wagons D1... if they are actually both mafia then I don't know why scum would have had a hedge mindset? It seems like they'd be fairly desperate, which makes your scenario of "Von calls bullshit on Loch" plausible? Unless they thought that would be too transparent?

Bleh, at this point I'm kinda running myself around in circles.

 

I just feel like I personally would've pushed for the Loch bus, as even if she survives that day, she wouldn't survive the next, so the 'short path to victory' would always seem like it was out of reach so you gotta try to get that little edge, especially since people were already inclined to Von and Loch not being knowingly aligned.

Ugh. Like if Von is town, he's truly not making it easy to evaluate him with his overall activity and play >_>

---------- Post automerged at 23:56 ---------- Previous post was at 23:44 ----------

For what it's worth, Jan and Von are most likely not knowingly aligned. Jan could most likely keep Von's spirits up, and if we lynch/shoot one and confirm them as a witch, we should probably treat the other as conf!town.

This is not saying the opposite is true, if X flips town, y is scum, they could both be town, though it would surprise me immensively.

Personally for that reason, I prefer a Jan/Von lynch and Waco shot, over a Waco lynch from a pure mechanical point of view.

How was your gut feeling around EoD day1 Newcomb. Who do you feel like was 'next in line' if people had jumped off of Cobalt ?

Memory wise I feel like it had been you purely by poe, how did you experience it?

 

Not quite sure what you're asking me. Just going off memory if we couldn't get the numbers for Cobalt it would have been Snowvon.

 

Cobalt was a 'we want these roles alive so we just lynch this dude' if Cobalt had not been in the game/an option (and Von and Loch was policy immune due to roll claims) who do you think would've been the sacrifice instead of Cobalt.

 

Ok just got home and instead of just calling pozzais case on me bad i will humor it for a minute.

I do not disagree that the part that you pointed out is basically not convincing anyone of anything, because town as well as scum can be wrong, so newcomb going into the game and trying to lynch town, looks bad, but it isnt condeming.
The way he adressed the claims by trying to kill within them was the point that i disliked myself.
You sadly missed out on pointing that out. I think more of Newcomb in terms of mechanics, so i did not expect him to be that clueless and bad at the time.

And I still think lynching within the checks is nearly always bad, unless you are sure one of them is scum.


The 2nd marked sentence, where you bitched about me not going in depth about your slot.
You do realize that the slot you are in had basically not done anything for all of day 2.
Not only was there not that much to analyze, my comment was mostly analyzing the reason for the nightkill.

I did not even talk about your slot only, i talked about the two possible scumslots with 2 lifes. One of them being you, one of them being the unknown survivalist.
I was expecting something from plotless (it was less than 2 hours into day3) before looking more at it, he then replaced out and i wanted to wait for you to get into the game.

What i hate about your accusation is not the two points out of 175 posts you picked. It is the fact that you decided do discard everything else and just tunnel on something that does not transmit that much information and disregard everything else.

And objective analysis of my play would include more than two posts, that also is the reason why i wanted to be sure that you are done with reading through, because i cannot believe that you think your case is solid if you do not mention anything else i did, or try to go further into it and get reads out of mine if you are that convinced that i am scum.