N2 hes thinking 'gotta risk it for the biscuit'. His is probably rolecop, given tracker / vig / neighbour town distribution.

N3 he's setting up miner for the fall. D4 ended up just being a turbo lynch on him, and out of the three most likely nks (you, font, acio) only you left a detailed last word.

It's pretty obvious that fontisian didn't put much thought into her lynch order, as the follow-on to miner telling the truth about his role is that someone else is lying about their role.

I don't think this is a town reaction to what I said and keeps to the trend of Cobalt being extremely self focused in his postings.

Food for thought: if you're a limited shot doctor, do you fish on d1 for a soft claim to protect?

---------- Post automerged at 09:50 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:34 PM ----------

To fully explain my thoughts here: who is more interested in a power role soft claim on d1?

1. A limited shot doctor who is getting n1'd 0% of the time
2. Scum

---------- Post automerged at 10:16 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:50 PM ----------

Let's have a look at mini#6.

Town:
Tracker (2 shot)
Vig (1 shot)
2 Non confirmed Neighbours.
5 Vanillas

Scum:
Bullet Proof
Roleblocker (2 shot)
goon

The spread this game would be

Town:
Tracker (2 shot)
Vig (1 shot)
Doc (2 shot).
1 neighbourizer
5 Vanillas

Scum:
Power role
goon
goon

So if cobalt is to be believed, town is much more powerful AND scum is much weaker than in the previous game.

I just can't see it being done like this.

 

Why can't it be 2 shot Tracker, 1 shot Vig, 2 shot Doc vs Goon, Goon, JoaT with Neighbor shot?

---------- Post automerged at 09:39 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:30 AM ----------
Prophylaxis; Acionyx;

Thoughts?

Not on the above, just. In general.

I'll admit, I I'm a bit of a weathervane right now. I'm kind of in this mental cycle where I feel very strongly about clearing certain people, but like. I've felt that way about all four of you, so I know I'm wrong on one of them, so I don't trust any of them, so... vicious circle.

I can feel myself gripping it too tight, and that's how I lost MM6 for town.

Little help? At least one of you is town.

---------- Post automerged at 09:48 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:39 AM ----------

I guess maybe could everyone comment on these and say which one they think is most reasonably wrong?

Acio seems strongly town to me because of his early reaction to my Sloth case, the fact that he's reminding me very strongly of the two games I've played with him where he's been town, the fact that Snowvon linked us together with a "Newcomb and Acio are town" thing and did not differentiate on the reads, and the fact that he targeted me N1 with a Neighbor power and has been engaged in trying to solve the game / care about the game even when under zero pressure. Also the fact that he claimed to be a "Masonizer," (which in my mind implies some kind of alignment confirmation), when as scum he would have zero motivation to throw a fly into the ointment of his claim like that. He'd have just claimed Neighborizer.

Proph seems strongly town to me because Jason's posts oozed obv newb town, because Sloth whiteknighted the shit out of Jason and Snowvon gave him an "obvtown", and because Proph dumbtold about scum having daychat.

Cobalt seems town to me because he's very tonally town, he was extremely unconcerned / breezy with the game D1 when his team was getting rekt if mafia, and because the convoluted "I'll no-kill N2 and pretend to save fonti, then claim VT and wine it up about being Doc" makes more sense to me from the perspective of actually being a Doc - not to mention how coy he was being about being 3+ shot / able to self-target. As mafia, he'd have to know that that looks scummy as shit. Feels a lot more like he's making a play as town.

Kai seems town because the scenarios where he's mafia are either A) strictly scum!Ninja, and that seems super dubious with the claimed town PRs + this being an Eido setup, or B), he somehow knew that there was a Doctor + Tracker and No-Killed to "clear" himself, which seems fucking stupid.

 

Once again, Kai has yet to bring an actual argument to the table about me not being town except for setup metagaming.

I'm growing tired of this.

---------- Post automerged at 01:56 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:51 PM ----------

Any person wanting to lynch me is going to have to answer this question or it's not gonna happen.

 

Newcomb, I'll get to you sometime today.

Still working on the big interaction analysis.

 

Think I'm ready to hardclear my first person out of the four.

Hard to articulate, but the question to Sloth feels earnest, and the followup to confirmed town Miner just reads like - lack of guile. Had a question, saw someone else asked, backed off. Nothing in there has a hint of knowing either that Sloth is mafia or Miner is town.

Again, in your very first game of mafia and you roll mafia, this is not a question you ask to someone you know is town, I think.

Pushback on townread is hella town for a newbie.

My hard scumread on Sloth was based on the very, very strong feeling that he acted the way "A certain type of player" acts as scum in the early game. I compared his play to dC in WH13 and Mal in WH14. Another characteristic of that type of player is that as scum, they tend to be accurate. They can't help themselves. Their scum play is based on sounding engaged and reasonable, and that confidence about Jason here is wildly out of character for a post to a partner.

It's 99.9999% a "I know this guy is town, and I will now get ahead of the direction the thread is already going by getting ahead of that read and cementing this guy as obv newb town."

Now let's look at this Snowvon post.

Snowvon reflexively busses under pressure. Nearly 0% chance he brushes off a partner by listing him as his toptown and says "Jason blah blah obvious newbtown blah." If Jason were his partner here and this was the strategy he was taking - bussing Sloth, but hard townreading a partner, there would be /something/. An insight. Anything. Another sentence. One tiny scrap of doubt. This is just... let's just say that if Snowvon talked that way about a partner, I'd be fucking shocked.

Now look at this from Proph:

That line of inquiry from Proph is from where I posit that Kai is a Rolecop and knew fonti was tracker and that's can't possibly be the case, because then Sloth's reaction to fonti's redcheck is insane - i.e. scum Kai/Sloth would have mechanical evidence that fonti was NOT the Cop.

Proph's thought process is coming from an MTGS perspective where scum do not have daychat, and get the results of night actions after the day starts, so if Kai were a rolecop, Sloth would not know fonti is a Tracker and not a Cop at the start of D2, only Kai would.

It doesn't occur to him that scum have daychat because he plays mostly on MTGS where it would be very rare / impossible for it to work like it's always worked in DLP minis, where scum have daychat but sometimes lose it post D3+, but never as early as D2.

Jason stuff + Sloth stuff + Snowvon stuff + Proph stuff =

Hardclear Proph, never lynch in F3.

Just need to find one town in Cobalt, Acio, Kai now.

 

I'm on my way to work, so I'll be out of commission thread-wise for the next ~9-10 hours. I may find time during my shift to poke in and/or make short replies if it's within my power, but don't hold me to it.

Feel free to direct questions my way when I'm gone though, I'll answer to my fullest capacity once I'm home for the night.

 

Alright, let's do this.

Snowvon and Sloth interaction analysis.

| denotes responding to a quote or a question, or an attack.
- denotes a passive mention.

Multiple occurrences in the same post are redundant. If a post contains both | and - for the same player, only | is mentioned.

Some | may be demoted to - and vice versa depending on importance.

Snowvon first. I guess Citrus can be our control group for town, and Sloth be for scum.

Code:

Proph: 
Ncomb: |---
Acio*: -
Kai**:
Coblt:

Citrs: |--
Sloth: ||-

Breaking this down:

One thing I noticed is that Snowvon has a lot of "fluff" interactions with Sloth. I mean, it's pretty natural, since Sloth hasn't been here for most of the game - but that gives us a baseline to judge other interactions with.

This is the type of minor whiteknighting from Snowvon that makes me think Acio is town.

The "what are you doing" feels like what Newcomb said about scum wanting to instinctively be RIGHT. In my mind, Snowvon is chastising Titus here for going after Acio, and Snowvon wants to be the reasonable guy in the room.

The "I'm sad" can come from either of Newcomb's alignment, I think? I'm going to check back to when Newcomb quoted his "I'm sad" from a previous game, see if he responded to town or scum there.

But yeah, I think the Acio thing w/r/t buddying, plus the whiteknight above, makes me semi confident on clearing Acio? It kind of sucks since I'm just rereading interactions that I've already read, but they're there.

Oh, Newcomb was town in the WH game. This makes Newcomb kind of likely to be town unless he instructed that entire chain of events in the daychat, which is extremely unlikely.

Ok, I think this is one of the key interactions to analyze, since if we look at this correctly, this can clear Newcomb as town. This honestly feels like an emotional reaction due to being caught as scum.

Like, this is scum anger to be sure. But my question is, is Snowvon angry at a scumbuddy calling him out, or town!Newcomb catching him? I'm leaning towards the latter, for a couple of reasons:

- The "Newcomb's vote makes me sad". That reads as an incredibly organic interaction between Snowvon and Newcomb. If they were scumbuddies together, I think Snowvon picks a different phrase, other than "I'm sad"?

- Daychat. I remember in the Invitational (MTGS off-site game) I was scum and one of my scumbuddies got very genuinely angry at the other, which helped us a tooon in that game. If the scum have daychat in this game, then I don't think Snowvo

---------- Post automerged at 05:09 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:40 PM ----------

Aaaaaargh accidentally posted it.

Code:

Proph: --
Ncomb: ||||------
Acio*: |||--
Kai**: --
Coblt: --

Citrs: |---
Sloth: ||----

If the scum have daychat in this game, then I don't think Snowvon reacts this way to a scumbuddy calling him out.

The incredulity seems real in this.

I think Snowvon kind of just lumped everyone actually playing the game and not on his team into the same green pile? Like, I can definitely see my train of thought going "town, yeah, more town, yep. Lower townreads, sure" and then saddling his scumbuddy near the yellow. Also there's the "gold star for reads accuracy" which somewhat implies that Snowvon wanted to be kind of right this game.

I don't know, I feel like my mind decided "Kai is scum!" and then produces a ton of evidence that clears Acio and Newcomb. Acio I'm a bit more sure about that Newcomb, since Acio had a fair amount of genuine reactions to the thread, and also because I've been fooled by Newcomb before.

I know I keep saying this, but: This feels the conga line of townies just lining up for Snowvon to get out of the way.

This is a response to Newcomb, though it's worth noting that Snowvon is still trying to save his buddy.

Resigned townies response?

I feel like I used up all my brainpower to talk about that Newcomb post so I'm just "yeah" at these later posts. Ugh.

I think this makes Newcomb town, probably? Comparing a scum member so cleanly to a town game is just.. screaming that you know they're town. Like, it's me in Tiny Hunt 5 resigned to believe that Eido is town, with zero paranoia whatsoever.

Not gonna analyze the other posts, since Wine and all.

Conclusions: I know I'm confirmation biasing this, and I know that the spectator chat is yelling at me loudly for this and I will be a sad guy when we inevitably lose this game. But going through this exercise once again affirms to me that Newcomb and Acio are strongly town.

I've played in an endgame like this before (where we lynched two scum early, and we never caught the third) and the critical mistake we made in that game was we let people who didn't post D1 slide. There was a guy who didn't post at all during Day 1, and got replaced by someone who is competent as scum. That person name-counterclaimed one of his scumbuddies and was able to coast all the way to endgame, because we kept going on Adventures Like These.

That makes me want to take a very close look at KaiDASH and Cobalt, who are the two people who dropped out on Day 1, which is why we're in the situation we're in right now.

---------- Post automerged at 05:19 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:09 PM ----------

Newcomb/Acio: Would you guys mind summarizing neighbor chat or something?

I don't exactly how helpful it'll be, but yeah.

Also Acio in WH 10-1 and Acio in this game is like night and day.

 

I can take a whack at it but it's pretty long; 100+ posts I believe. It's mainly just us agreeing with each other. :/

Yeah Proph you're reading the game like I am. I think if Acio's scum here I just tip my cap to a brilliant performance and we just agree here and now to kill Kai and Cobalt.

 

Well, if either of you posted 100+ posts into a neighbor chat intent on solving the game then.. yeah.

Not saying it can't be faked, but it adds to my already strong townreads on both of you.

The problem is, I'm pretty sure we're all confirmation biasing on Kai being scum, but I think the game is much harder than that.

Like, "in the world that Kai flips town and someone gets NK'd, who is scum?" That's the world I'm trying to operate under right now.

 

What is the confirmation bias though? Like okay take out mechanics and he's 103837473729% scum. It's the mechanics that are the tripping point.

I can't think of a series of events N1-N2-N3 that makes any kind of sense for scum Kai considering the Did Not Vist Anyone N2.

 

OK, so quick ISO of Kai:

First four posts are trump gifs.

Says that he's OK with not posting because Overwatch beta, or something.

Pops in, asks Newcomb who to vote for, then hops onto Snowvon.

If Kai is actually concerned with his scumteam getting rolled he's not showing it.

Asks fonti for a quest, and posts this:

Basically parrots the reasoning on Sloth and builds up Citrus as a lynch. Posts a "never lynch" list and it's basically Newcomb/Acio at this point.

Pushes back on Citrus, argues against the townread.

Ugggggggh right here is the thing.

Does scum!Kai react like this if his scumteam is just getting rolled? I might want to reread the last WH but. Iunno.

Pretty lack of self awareness response, like me when I replaced in.

Builds up Cobalt as a lynch.

This "let me go check my QT" feels like the "oops, RVS time" thing from mal? Like, something a little forced to make us think he's town?

Also another small thing, but he says he's vanilla town as opposed to Town Vanilla, which is what I have.

Kai: This is probably 100% useless but can you just fullclaim? Flavor, role name, etc. Just to have cards on table and stuff.

Posts a lynch cobalt, Wines something about killing Titus N1, keeps rallying against Cobalt.

Has some one liner stuff about mechanics.

M o d g a m e c e n t r a l

He pops in with a lynch Miner too, even though he hasn't said anything all game w/r/t miner.

Votes demonturtle even though he said he was never gonna lynch her, but I did that too so not holding it against him.

Lynches miner, lynches cobalt.

Then he goes for the Cobalt jugular with spectacular modgaming arguments.

So.. yeah. Some stuff.

I guess I have to reread Cobalt too as well, huh? Great.

---------- Post automerged at 08:20 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:17 PM ----------
Newcomb: Honestly I think there's a point where you just have to close your eyes and ignore mechanics.

I don't know if you read Hobbit, but. That's what I'm trying to get at here.

I think I just do rereads of Cobalt and Sloth, then see where we're at? Interactions aren't super helpful sadly since the scum just rolled over and died.

 

I haven't read the Hobbit. Eido keeps telling me to but D1 is so boring.

I'll keep re-reading and poking around. But like-

Kai is behaviorally scum and mechanically town.

Cobalt is behaviorally town and mechanically scum.

You and Acio are just... town.

 

Yeah, that's a good way of putting things.

It just sucks since Kai/Cobalt weren't there Day 1, so it's tough to judge interactions.

 

I'm pretty sure if I don't get lynched today I'm always losing to whichever scum winds up in F3.

But I'm going back to my earlier read of being as comfortable with Proph as I am with Newcomb. I still think Fonti's lynch order of Kai > Acio wins the game for town but we'll see where day and night goes.

Once Newcomb brought up scum JOAT with a mason stock I really can't get that out of my head if only for the reason that I played with a similar role in a recent scum game. But I feel Kai is always the lynch here.

 

cobalt is talking way too much about winding up in final 3 and having to make a tough choice.

it's like he already knows today will be a mislynch.

 

Forget lynch order.

We have one kill to end the game.

Acio or Kai, and why?

There's one scum left. One of those two people you're throwing shade at is town. Which one?

---------- Post automerged at 09:22 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:21 PM ----------

How confident are you that it's Cobalt here? If Proph/Acio/me all collectively decide to kill you today, then always forever no takesie-backsies kill Cobalt in F3, you good with that?

 

go for it.

 

Cobalt - link me to a recent scum game?

Kind of want to see what your scum range is.

---------- Post automerged at 10:09 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:09 PM ----------

This is kind of like three player lylo, but with three players deciding who is the lynch instead of one, heh.

 

I mainly want Kai and Cobalt to talk about Acio because at least one of them is town and that's the clear I need to lock this game, if it's correct, so.

Do you think you'd actually get anything out of me paraphrasing Neighbor chat?

 

I was about to say no, but as I was eating I had a major paranoia attack about how you could possible be scum so yeah, I'd like to see it.



---------- Post automerged at 11:18 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:17 PM ----------

Like I think it's worth asking: Why are you or Acio not dead yet?