Was just about to ask Kai the same question.

Also, Kai, fullclaim?

(also going to sleep)

 

Convenient how Kai shows up after I claim to be in bed for the night and thus am not around to defend myself. Thankfully I decided to check again before actually going to sleep.

Hey Kai, wanna do me and the rest of the game a favor and ACTUALLY post about something else for once in this phase? Preferably something along the lines of examining each of the remaining players as potential scum and your thoughts on that, please.

---------- Post automerged at 04:36 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:36 AM ----------

Going to sleep fo reals now. Just wanted to say that before I go.

 

You caught me, I was obsessively lurking the thread, saw you say you were going to sleep and posted my bit 2 minutes later.



---------- Post automerged at 06:49 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:44 PM ----------

As far as I'm concerned, cobalt is the last scum and this is over when we lynch him.

If by some miracle of chance, he gets lynched today but isn't scum, I'm getting lynched 100% of the time tomorrow so it's kind of a moot exercise in my view.

My flavour is that I'm Muhammad Ali. I fought to reach the pinnacle of sport repeatedly and never compromised my beliefs, regardless of the consequences.

 

I apologize for harping on this, Kai. From either alignment really, I suppose it's not really fair of me to keep getting on you engagement-wise, when I know it's not really your jam. So, take this in the best possible way:

But shouldn't you have some opinion here? Like - why isn't the natural response here that is 10000% has to be Acio if Cobalt somehow flips town because Acio has a proven PR?

I understand being sold that it's Cobalt, but this F5 is hard for me and I'm not 100% sure of anything. Why isn't it hard for you?

(And yes I realize I am setting you up for a good zinger here. Consider it my gift to you.)

 

I really just want him to at least TRY to consider other things, and he's been downright refusing to do so.

Like, what am I supposed to do with that? :/

 

I considered the possibility of newcomb getting me a while back and it just doesn't seem plausible with the way he went after sloth day one. For me specifically I don't feel I was openly aggroing sloth in a way that makes newcomb go in on his teammate the way he did and it feels stupidly implausible that he dunks both teammates day one independently but maybe that's just me projecting how I'd play it vOv

And he sums my deal with you up in that quote pretty much perfectly


Regarding the rest of the game: I went through cobalts stuff two days ago and I feel like I'd lynch proph before I'd lynch him at this point; newcomb summed up my conclusion already but the vanilla claim transition just feels too smoothly played to be coming from scum especially when added with all the other stuff he'd have to be doing. He's basically in the same category font was before she died where it's concievable but death note implausible to me.

Need to actually read prophs catch up stuff now but as far as he goes I feel like sloth might have just banked on jason being newbie defendable when he moved early on and rolled with it when people were townreading jason as blatant

But wrt the above: If it's not cobalt (and I don't think it is) then kai/jason means someone somewhere did something awkward/dumb and just rolled with it

---------- Post automerged at 12:21 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:15 PM ----------

But yeah right now I feel like it's Kai>Jason/proph to win it

Sidenote: Unless I've missed it kai is utterly ignoring me being a part of this game for the last day other than the implication that he thinks my role is town

---------- Post automerged at 01:08 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:21 PM ----------

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Okay I'm short on time to do much until later tonight and late tomorrow before deadline


I've reread proph's stuff:

Overall he's got a couple of good analysis posts but the things that stick out heavily for me are that he enters day three with the gung-ho "Let's take our time and solve this shit" comment and then spends that latter half of the day repeatedly going "Ugh man I'm just coasting"

Main concerns right now are coming from stuff said in WH14, namely that proph can fake analysis type posts and that he's made a strategy in the past of giving out townreads early and reversing them as the game goes on.

I'll recheck later tonight but I'm almost positive that sloth gave out the shining townbeacon comment after everyone else started going "hey jason's blatantly town especially for the way sloth is acting towards him" and I don't think it's a far-out possibility for scum to just roll with that especially if they start getting hard aggroed.


As far as reads thoughtprocesses go: He's been extremely consistent about giving me a townread regarding Von's actions towards me so his recent von analysis post ends up falling flat a bit.


I kinda think I'm up for betting the game on him today

 

Might be the first time we've really disagreed about the game, then.

I think Sloth/Von counting on Jason to be the carry from the get-go like that is just... not likely, at all. The shining town beacon thing was post 96 of the game.

Also the 28th post of the game was this:

That was literally - not figuratively - the first time anyone had given any non-RVS content.

Between that post and 96 with the "shining town beacon" comment, Jason picked up a townread from you -

and fonti

and Miner

Hmmmmm.

Yeah I can /kinda/ see rolling with it? I'd forgotten that fonti townread him before Sloth's post as well.

But it really, really, really feels like Sloth trying to just solidify the read and grab a bit of towncred a la Ixta-LTH in WH13.

I mean you have to think they did it from the get-go, like this was the plan from the beginning, since that Sloth readwall was literally the first post of the game.

I can kinda see them rolling with it after Jason picks up a few townreads from actual town and just hard committing to Jason being the carry, but like. Do you see Snowvon/Sloth going like "yes this is definitely our best chance, this person who is playing literally his first game of mafia will definitely not utterly collapse under the pressure of being the long term carry here."

Plus, like - Jason replaced out. How is that not something that comes up in scumchat? "Guys this plan is not going to work, I can't be active enough."

PLUS, if that really was the plan, why did Jason not actually bus Snow/Sloth? IIRC he kind of halfheartedly / noncommittally voted them.

Idk Acio I think the tinfoil on this one is too strong.

I think of the 4 people who from my PoV could be mafia Proph is the one I'm most comfortable hardclearing.

---------- Post automerged at 11:27 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:23 AM ----------

Prophylaxis

Do you think this is ever a w/w interaction in response to this?

---------- Post automerged at 11:28 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:27 AM ----------

Like, when Acio knows Sloth is scum and the two "scum" Sloth has identified are in fact town?

That strikes me as a super pro scum move, especially just off the cuff / early game like that.

 

Why does Acio gotta come in and make me feel all good about him and shit when I want him in my PoE? D:

Y'all are making this extremely difficult. If this ends in a scum victory I won't even be mad. This is a high-caliber F5, imo.

(Except for Kai)

---------- Post automerged at 02:38 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:37 PM ----------

inb4 either Proph or Acio scum bring Cobalt - Proph - Acio to F3 at which point I will shit my pants.

But like, I don't see either of them NOT bringing Newcomb there.

---------- Post automerged at 02:39 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:38 PM ----------

I'm really, really hoping that Kai will just end the game. I'll do more analysis after work later. We have another... day, yeah? irl?

---------- Post automerged at 02:40 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:39 PM ----------

Newcomb can you do two things for me?

1. Re-read your mason chat with the lens of scum!Acio and pick out bits that make sense, and bits that don't.

2. Consider scum!Proph without the Jason interactions at all? I want that read unbiased.

---------- Post automerged at 02:41 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:40 PM ----------
Newcomb sorry

 

Yeah ish. Day ends 7 PM PST Monday I believe. So like 30 hours and change.

So here's my thinking.

If Jason or Acio is the mafia here, then you have to put yourself in a world where Snowvon and Sloth both played utterly terribly, but ALSO utterly brilliantly. At the same time.

I don't know Sloth, but I caught him because he was fitting a scum archtype of being Reasonable and Careful. That archetype does not fit proactively hard townreading a partner.

I know Von pretty well /I think/, at least his mafia play, and so much of it comes from this shoot from the hip, non-crafted responses. I know he stresses a lot about posting as scum, but I've never seen that layers-on-layers-on-layers thing when he's scum that you'd need here to posit a scumAcio or scumJason world.

And that's on top of all the reasons I'm independently townreading them.

Yeah I think I'm at a place where I'm never going to get past those things, and it's either Kai or Cobalt, because behavior or because mechanics, respectively.

Think I just want to kill one of them and snap vote the other in F3 if the game continues because... yeah. Unless someone comes up with a smoking gun or blinding insight, I can't see myself being moved off those two townreads.

Think I just have to tip my cap to scum Proph or Acio here. If we do live in that world... welp. Sucks, but would be a legit great game anyway.

---------- Post automerged at 11:48 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:45 AM ----------

That's some fun timing after I literally just talked myself out of ever doing that.

idk, maybe. If I get a burst of energy sometime later today.

The bits of mason chat that don't make sense obviously are the part where he claimed fucking Masonizer with no alignment confirmation so like. I'd say that could definitely come from a scum perspective except why would you ever claim that.

Proph has been Proph. I don't think he replaces in as the last scum and goes "wheeee 2 down, let's see if I can get away with not reading the game." Plus the daychat thing.

 

See but like, this is the mentality that always gets town a loss here and I really really hate it. "If this person is scum then they deserve the win," like, no, how about if this person is scum we can try to figure it out and beat them?

I just feel like the resignation in F5 when EVERYBODY should be considering EVERYBODY is just extremely tiring and that's why both scum!Acio and scum!Proph here would ALWAYS bring me to F3 with Newcomb after a Kai lynch if that's what happens toDay, and I hate that it's set up that town will lose because Newcomb's just so willing to concede to one of those two being scum and snap vote it.

---------- Post automerged at 03:03 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:01 PM ----------

Maybe look a little bit more at the potential scum JOAT world wherein there's a mason stock?

And tbh, I could see a scum Proph subbing into that shitty situation and then playing flippantly and forcing some kind of townslip to coast to endgame (which by your read he's basically more than allowed to do.)

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I'm not resigned to losing. It's just... I don't think Acio or Proph is scum.

You can construct a world where either are, but you have to line up like 6 improbable pieces, and on the balance scale against Kai who is behaviorally scum, and you whose role kinda sticks out like a sore thumb against Tracker/Vig/Neighborizer -- Goon/Goon/X, like.

Again... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Well yeah, I'm really hoping Kai ends the game too.

But I guess I'll just resign myself to a town loss if I end up in F3 with you if he's town.

---------- Post automerged at 03:29 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:28 PM ----------

Anyway, gonna go do stuff and then get ready for work. Will pop in as needed maybe.

 

Someone go look at the early game stuff before this and how Acio was talking about Titus - he's talking about Von's "Titus what are you doing" thing.

Anyone but mostly Prophylaxis look at those posts please. It's got to be one of the smoothest mafia pivots in any game ever if Acio is mafia.

---------- Post automerged at 02:30 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:26 PM ----------

True or false scum Acio is degenerate enough to make this post to me (also click the arrow to see what post of mine he's quoting.)

---------- Post automerged at 02:31 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:30 PM ----------

Kai makes this post directly I go hard on Sloth/Snow and Acio agrees with me.

Okay.

---------- Post automerged at 02:31 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:31 PM ----------

*directly after

---------- Post automerged at 02:32 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:31 PM ----------

And Cobalt makes that post 2 posts after that.

COME ON.

---------- Post automerged at 02:34 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:32 PM ----------

Does Doc Cobalt make this post?

Why do you make it as mafia though

Hum.

---------- Post automerged at 02:41 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:34 PM ----------

Prophylaxis

Read this Sloth post about Snowvon very carefully. Do you see what I see? I bolded a few parts for emphasis.

 

I'll get to you Newcomb in a bit.

 

Posted 1 minute after Sloth goes "why would you check me" to Fonti.

C'mon.

---------- Post automerged at 04:41 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:35 PM ----------

So reconcile this with you being the Doc, Cobalt. Like why were you actually zero care / fear then, since you actually did have a job to do mechanically?

Also why didn't you protect anyone N1?

---------- Post automerged at 05:38 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:41 PM ----------
Prophylaxis is it accurate that "Masons" in your experience is just shorthand for "two people who can talk to each other" and doesn't imply anything alignment-related?

 

Sorry for not responding to you earlier, busy writing flavor and stuff. I'll try to get to it tonight.

In my experience "Masons" means two players who can talk to each other and are mod-confirmed to each other. "Neighbors" are people who can just talk to each other, no alignment confirmation.

 

Like. Legit question that sounds kinda dumb. What are the odds Eido puts in a town Masonizer with no alignment confirmation just to fuck with us, vs. what are the odds that Acio screwed up his claim and just decided to roll with it?

Both of those sound super dumb to me but I honestly can't think of any other options :/

---------- Post automerged at 06:47 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:29 PM ----------

Hum. Part of me wants to see this as a genuine slip. Opinions?

 

It's time for some choo choo

 

Lol Kai will literally make any excuse or follow any reason to try to shove the train my way, noted.

 

Yes thank you we get it both of you are tunneling each other.