Yes and no.

 

Y'all best prepare yourselves for this Newtron Bomb. (copyright yogsloth 2016)

This is probably my one window to actually sit down and post between now and EoD tomorrow so we're just doing this right now.

3 town, 2 scum (plus one backup bonus scum)

Citrus - town.

Citrus is posting entirely in quotes. Why would he do this? What's the motivation? I'm not sure. But I do think it's a town one. Here's Citrus pregame in WH14 in his QT, where he was town:

He made that post in his QT, then the exact same one in the thread when the game opened. He had a plan.

The bolded part is key - he's not dropping it, and he's doubling down.

This isn't the first time Citrus has done something goofy when a game starts - see "i'm the Priest" and iterations thereof, but as mafia, when he did it in AGM he dropped it immediately. In WH12 he did it and dropped it immediately.
This is pretty prototypical town!Citrus going "okay, what's something weird I can do this game to generate reactions?"

Tom - scum

Compare and contrast to Tom, who also has a gimmick and has doubled down on it.

Tom's the kind of player who likes to stand out, and I absolutely believe he'd claim scum as either alignment here.

I've been w/w with tom, though, and as mafia his reads just... lack substance. He moves quickly between them, though he's sticky on a couple - like with Iso in SG-1, and he relies on the "smoke bomb" technique of deflecting awkward lines of inquiry into kind of nonsensical or random tangents.

This is the kind of stuff that tom gets caught with as mafia. Basic mindset stuff - his reads aren't real; they're changing depending on whatever's going through his head at the moment. This makes him sound kind of breezy and towny at first blush, but it's the second pass where you look at two statements he's made -

1) "Rubicon is obviously town and we should lynch him at some point"

2) "Miner and fonti are the only people I'd lynch right now"

-

And they don't quite make sense that that's his genuine view of the gamestate.

It's not that he's saying contradictory things - because town can absolutely have contradictory thoughts - like thinking two people are super wolfy but they're very unlikely to be partners - it's the mindset behind that contradiction that make tom >rand wolf here.

Fontisan - town

I've been trying to fully articulate this meta thing on fonti, but it's like - as mafia, she lashes out. She has an edge as town, for sure, but it's more like the "I'm surrounded by idiots" kind of edge and less of that "that was bad and you should feel bad" pointed energy.

Not lashing out at a specific person voting her; instead it's that "oh my god why" thing. Like last game with lynching Silver, or chiding Citrus for his Priest fakeclaim and forgetting about the Demon in TH5.

Fonti's meta with Von is storied, but this is not a post she makes at Von here as mafia unless Von is exactly her partner, and I'm townreading Von (see below), so that's not likely. Pushing scum on Von early in the game and not doing it loudly - this is, like, half joking and half serious - would be an entirely new look for scum!fonti. If scum!fonti has a tell, I believe it's this: she's more focused on looking like she's attacking than in actually solving the game.

WH13 Day 1, scum!fonti makes a big case against town!KaiDASH:

http://www.fantasystrike.com/forums/index.php?threads/witch-hunt-13.11902/page-9#post-458635

(the post has a ton of embedded quotes, just click the link and read it there)

MM6, Day 1, scum!fonti makes a big case against town!Proph:

https://forums.darklordpotter.net/showpost.php?p=882312&postcount=125

(more embedded quotes)

As town, fonti is waaaaay less prone to this - she made zero "big cases" in MM7, and she was mostly focused on the towncircle:

Way more attention / focus on who's town and why, with a scumread with a more nebulous / tentative vibe.

In this game fonti's probably the most capable of changing up her meta, but to be brutally honest if she were going to pull out all the stops and dazzle people with a completely different look as mafia, I don't think it would be for this game.

This read is partly due to the fact that I viscerally want her to be town because I want to D1 lynch her, for reasons that have very little to do with this game and more to do with how I'd find it personally satisfying and pretty funny. But she's >rand town here and I'm confident enough in my scumreads to the degree that I'm comfortable indulging myself and just doing it.

We could just let her get shot N1/2, but that's the non-spicy option and this game needs some more spice, dammit.

Vote: fontisian

Jan - scum

Hooooo boy, this one takes some explaining but it's basically my strongest read right now.

So, for context, Jan and I just finished a super intense, extremely competitive game over at MU where I was town and he was mafia. He replaced into the game late on D1 and late-voted a partner that I was lead-wagoning. He told me after the game that he did it specifically to mess with me / get me to townread him, which worked, for a while. I was pretty convinced he'd have bussed his partner harder as mafia there.

So the next Day, we spar a little over his read of me - he gives me a bland "you led a scum wagon so you're probably town," but when I'm not thrilled with that answer, he decides to get super cheeky:

It's... literally scumtrolling me. The important part is that he's deliberately singling me out and needling me here.

I flip on him, hard, and come out with a big "Jan is mafia, Vig needs to shoot him tonight."

His response:

The pattern of behavior is that when I attack him, he immediately pivots to fearmongering. "If the Vig shoots me I'll flip town and you'll look bad."

I know this is long-winded but I can't fully articulate the strength of this read without walking everyone through my whole process here. For me it was like a 5-second thing where I went "holy FUCK it's happening again" but it's so specific to me.

So, this game:

Spoiler

First post is a meta joke specifically singling me out, poking me.

I come at him:

AND HE COMES IN WITH THE FEARMONGERING.

It's like... so obvious. Yeah sure would he really pull the exact same shit RIGHT after the wildcard game ended?

Yes, yes he /absolutely would/ - he specifically late-voted a partner to get me to townread him because he knows I know his reputation for bussing.

#levels



Never kill: Jan

Snowvon: Town

I'm townreading Snowvon for one single solitary post:

I think there are people in this game who don't know Von's meta. TL;DR, Von hates being mafia and his literally terrified that every single post will out himself. His reaction to being scumread as scum is more often than not panic and/or go hide in his QT. As town he's fluffy, even-keeled, not suuuper solve-y but thoughtful. It's a stark difference.

So far Von's overall posts are kinda, ehhh, somewhere on the townside of null on the Von meter but not definitive.

That post, though.

I have such a hard time believing he makes at as mafia, in this game.

This game specifically - if I'm right on fonti, then that's me and fonti at the very least that scum!Von is probably chewing his nails over, and the mechanics of this game mean that if Von is outed as mafia he doesn't even get the sweet release of death.

He's just... there, in the thread, forever. Unless he just instantly concedes the game.

That should terrify scum!Von here. Like, noticeably more than a normal game where he rolls scum.

I firmly, firmly believe that that quote would have had an extra line or two if Von were mafia here. Some random quote, or a "so I guess that means it's time for FLUFFPOSTS." Or "I wonder how I can get Newcomb to post a spicy meme" randomly poking someone, or... SOMETHING.

Like. Von is just flat-out musing to himself for no particular agenda or reason there. With this playerlist, on this site, in this game, that's just... really, really tough to see him threading the needle like that.

Rubicon: Bonus scum (if I'm wrong on tom or Jan)

Not suuuuper confident on this read, but two things have pinged me. Enough so that if I'm wrong somewhere Rubicon could easily be mafia.

First thing: his initial post.

Here's scum!fonti in WH13 on D1:

Eerily similar. The similarity itself isn't really a smoking gun, but when you get into the mindset here, it's like -

Okay, this is Rubicon's first post. He never brings it up again, nor does he push back against the people going "no, we're not doing that."

He clearly didn't /believe/ in it. And he can't have really expected that to be a legitimate plan. Like - "yes, let's put ourselves in octuple LYLO because unaligned pairs can help solve the game" <--- is not a plan that town's ever going to go for, ever.

So why bring it up? I think because Rubicon knows it looks good. It's kind of breezy and carefree in a "well, this guy can't possibly be mafia, he's not self-conscious at all about proposing scummy-looking plans" way.

Second, semi-defeatism.

Rubicon as mafia deflects from gamesolving with a kind of shrug-y-ness, "whatever I guess this might work" attitude. Case in point: this exchange in MM6, where Rubicon was mafia:

This game:

The way he deflects and kind of shrugs me off as unreadable or whatever, the tone is similar to his post here - he's pivoting / deflecting away from his first "let's just go antiwincon, that's good right?" thing by generating a townread out of it (Fishy Justice LOCK CLEAR if Rubicon flips mafia), and the shrug and the "I guess" has that same kind of... idk, like "woe is me, game is hard, Newcomb is unreadable, you're a bit town, I guess" vibe in this game.

Not a solid read at all; I don't want to lynch Rubicon toDay but it's a squishy read based more on gutfeels than any real conviction.

____

If anyone's still reading, TL;DR, Citrus/Snowvon/fonti are all good lynches toDay. If we never lynch Jan, Rubicon, or Tom, we probably just win the game.

 

I am amused.

I love that i got in your head. And all it took was one conversation.

 

Re Rubicon read: Comparing his opening post to one of my wifomy bullshit ones probably isn't a good idea.

 

This is fun. I disagree with almost everything Newcomb just posted.

---------- Post automerged at 08:39 ---------- Previous post was at 08:35 ----------

The Citrus read might be good.

The fonti read is not good because she just hasn't paid this much attention to the game, and you make cases for town, which is the opposite of attacking people.

The tom read is ok. I don't have reliable meta on him thus far to lean one way or another

The Von read is stupid because I am not sure scum!von was certain about living till the end when he made the post.
We know Von does not do mechanics. he reads reverse game and having fun and is in.

Fonti already mention why the rubicon read is bullshit.

Newcomb .. it looks like the two of us might enjoy each others company until the end, my friend.

---------- Post automerged at 08:45 ---------- Previous post was at 08:39 ----------

"I would say that you hide yourself behind big readwalls like a bookworm in a library.

You dodge real time conversation because you don't feel you are well enough prepared.

And the most important point your meme-game is not on point and you are not trying to make Champgames great again.
And we both know after reading the earlier games - champ games need all the help they can get."

I think those 3 points can still stand (well strike the champs part if you will). the last one really was not fitting at all because bussing here is something scum want to do if needed.

Outside of that your reads are an actual trainwreck.
The only real read is citrus. good chance fonti is spewed town by your read, but i would rather have her killed in the night than a d1 lynch.

If at one point tom becomes confirmed town then Newcomb is almost always scum.
If Tom indeed is scum, then Newcomb might be town.

I would like people who have played more with tom to talk about that meta read, thank you.

---------- Post automerged at 08:48 ---------- Previous post was at 08:45 ----------

The point with tom is that Newcomb bussing a partner this hard from the get go is a big risk because they both have to die at one point.
If newcomb manages to die thanks to the bus and flips mime, people might get paranoid or something, but he cannot ever vote for tom, which makes it really hard for them to die.
People are paranoid about Newcombs scumgame regardless, which makes him normally a likely person to die in the night and not in the day as town (because scum are somewhat afraid of him).
Not happening this game.

I want to say leave both of them alive and be sure you have 1 scum in that package.

Curious what else evolves from this.

 

Newcomb, your thought process is so out of sync with mine it's ???

What's your read on Zenzao?

 

~Votal 1.03~

[4] fontisian ~ Snowvon (#36), Citrus (#39), tom (#60), Newcomb (#143)
[4] Zenzao ~ Rubicon (#76), Jan (#99), Fishy Justice (#102), fontisian (#103)
[1] Newcomb ~ Atum (#104)

[4] Not Voting ~ his Fluffiness, miner11121, Riley, Zenzao

With 13 alive, it's 10 to hard lynch!

Deadline is at Thursday, July 21, 2016 at 7:00PM PST/10:00PM EST. Plurality lynch occurs at deadline, and in the case of a tie, a random mime is lynched.

Daily Post Count ≥5: Citrus, Fishy Justice, fontisian, Jan, miner11121, Newcomb, Riley, Rubicon, Snowvon, tom, Zenzao

Previous Votals:
1.01 | 1.02

 

Adding Von to my town circle for the reasons Newcomb stated.

(Looking at you, Jan)

 

Bads be bad.

 

Bat2 Scum!Zenzao post index for all to review as desired.

It was a multi-page long argument circling around her early posts matching the dismissive tone of WH13(IIRC) where she subbed in as scum and her calling OMGUS on me when I pointed this out and voted her, and my behavior came up often. Maybe its just fresh in my mind still but eh, Narutomafia wasn't that long ago.

Snowvon. Who was scum.

It dawned on me that it could be construed that he's a Mime and being bold enough to quote others the entire game, flaunting silence by way of never actually responding directly, expecting to glide on by to a lynch, but if what Newcomb says is true of Citrus' meta(and I mostly remember him getting fed up with stuff in Narutomafia and his color scheme shtick for votes, so maybe it is accurate) it would be more than a little hypocritical of me to judge him on that.

But why even raise it in the first place?

And so what if they have another NK? The Mimes are forced to NK on N1, N2, and N3, and can choose to use it or not thereafter but why would they bother since eliminating townies only sets us that much closer to achieving wincon? Are you also not reading the OP(like Fonti)? Your responses continue to strike me the wrong way, Rubicon, and continue to push for Mime-centric POV.

I have read you before, Rubicon. Caught you out as scum. I may be rusty but I think I'm seeing a pattern here.

I'll clarify this point in a bit.

Actually yes my dear. Lay out some hunting, some reasoning.

Already beat you to that kinda joke.

Fair enough. As I said above I've seen him do something of this sort before, but...

Alright, you've convinced me enough on that front that I can compare and see that, though she isn't acting entirely as I'd expected of her, this is in line with her behavior from Narutomafia.

I'm going to have to disagree with you on Scum!Snowvon/Town!Snowvon mindsets. He played things off exceptionally well in Narutomafia as scum, exhibiting the behavior you're laying out as his town behavior from what I remember. He only died because of Jan and the Speedwagon™, so I think he could reasonably fake it again.

That may be, but didn't he also fool Fonti and you in Narutomafia up until the Speedwagon(by which point Fonti was dead)?

I'd like to refer you to mine and Rubicon's last few interactions. Pretty sure he's pushing back on my calling him out over that, so...

You're up in the air on a tightrope, New.

Surprisingly enough I'd also like to hear that. Pretty sure last game we played together you had your thoughts on me by this point and I've been pretty active IMO, so your complete exclusion is... curious.

 

Zenzao - that interaction might still be one of the main things you remember about the game, but it isn't for me.

while narutomafia was my first forummafia game, i played .. 20? in the past year. Some of them good some of them awful, a lot of them had memorable moments (1 or 2 including me).

I won't remember the exact conversation that happened in my first game when i was not even a major part of it at the time.

I remember me pushing weird stuff d1 and getting a shitton of heat for it, which was a lot of fun.
I remember the Mathblade cop fakeclaim which got her mislynched.
I remember me claiming my role and pointing to a d1 soft (not sure what soft it was) that was well hidden which made us lynch Scum!von and then scum fuck up the soup the coming night, which in the end gave town the victory.
(I am only mentioning this because Von will read it and cringe at every part of it. the one game where he played well as scum and all was still lost in the end.)

And of course i also remember fonti being terribad at almost everything she did that game.
I mean .. I remember her being bad at everything, but I am fairly certain she was right on something (her d1 read on citrus was good! maybe even her d1 rubicon read, but that read was most likely just well sheeped off banks push).



By the way : Would Newcomb refer to someone who rolled scum in his champgame while adapting something from that person while rolling scum himself?

My magic ball says that it is exactly on level 8 of the newcomb scum levels.
Quite possible to be the case here.

Would he dare to do it as town? In this game for sure, other games less likely.

 

No, I mean it allows them to NK an obvious town, when we want to force them to NK less obvious towns.

 

If anyone would like to meta me,
Here is where I claimed jester as town
Here is where I roleplayed as a robot and won (possibly best towngame)
Here is where I played a whole game in rhyme (and lost to citric)
Here is my first experiment in roleplaying, with much conversation with myself (and a day 1 mislynch/night 1 scum win)
My best (completed) scumgame (as william vanderbilt)

Why I would make this post as town: To help people get a good read on me.
Why I would make this post as scum: Because no one is actually gonna read those.
Why I actually made this post: I'm just hoping someone will read the rhyming game to appreciate this particular quattrain:

TIA for your consideration.

 

fontisian lynch is too risky for me. I could see her having her partner try to wagon her, and the joy of lynching fontisian on D1 kind of goes away if she's secretly tricking us into doing it.

I want to know Newcomb's position on Zenzao because our goal is to lynch town. Zenzao is town and easier to read than fontisian, so why ignore him?

Also, I think a key problem with his reads is that this isn't a serious game and scum are probably more laidback and willing to take risks than usual.

 

Day ends in 11.5 hours or something.

<insert picture of horrified Mime here>

 

Heh, I forgot I actually played decently in Narutomafia. Mostly thanks to MathBlade for ~sorta clearing me. Oh well.

choo choo font lynch

 

Zenzao: right now all I think is that these walls are unholy. I'm tempted to assign scumpoints for the more spectacular ones. I was gonna vote Rubicon until his last post up there tbh.

I figure tom's probably town, but my biggest issue is that all my townleans are also the reason I'm in the game right now, and I don't really want to lynch them.

Oh, Riley's town too. Welcome back dude, I just wandered back to this board myself.

Unvote
Vote: Eidolon

 

That's certainly almost a vote.

 

^

villagery

Also, town-ish. I'd rather lynch one of my stronger townreads, though.

I feel like your meta-sense of Snowvon is out of date. Like, yeah he fooled me for a while in my first game ever, but that's not exactly a good representative sample of the current meta landscape.

If you have time, go look at CatHunt on FantasyStrike, WH6 here, or MM7 here. (He's "Vaimes" on FantasyStrike). I only have a hot minute this morning before I head off to work or I'd go dig you up some quotes.

Oooh, or go read his QT from MM7 and compare it to how he was interacting with me/Acio mid D1 of MM7.

It's /possible/ I'm confbiasing myself after correctly reading him for like 4-5 games in a row, but when Von is this strongly town in my eyes this early that usually meant he's just town.

That interaction happened after I started writing my post.

It's... mrgle. It's not really pushing back, more like straight concession. I can kiiiinda see him having that thought as town, like maaaaaybe it's a good idea to do that, posting it in the thread, then changing his mind? Still doesn't read super genuine to me, mostly because there's no fleshing it out or trying to convince people, it's just "hey let's do this" <crickets><disagreement> "yeah it's terrible."

Town side of null. You've got that "prickly tone / pointed question" thing going that I remember from Hannibal and Naruto mafia. Don't have a baseline comparison for your scumgame. Since your name isn't Jan, Tom, or Rubicon, if we lynch you D1 I won't cry about it. Kiiiiinda think Jan spewed you town with how hard he bit down on that townread.

So... it's not a serious game, but it's too risky to lynch fonti?

That's a decidedly non-spicy attitude.

re: seriousness, I mean, you're right and you're wrong. It's a less serious game in general, and because of the weird nature of it it isn't really /necessary/ to have a comprehensive read on every single player. But reading people is the same - scum have TMI, town don't. People aren't going to magically buck their meta just because as mafia this game they're trying to get lynched. They're still going to their personal well for how they play as scum, because they need to get townread in order to win, just like always.

---------- Post automerged at 08:29 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:21 AM ----------

Also, strike that. I was burned by Rubicon unalignments in MM6; he's good at that kind of scum WIFOM. If Rubicon's mafia here then Fishy isn't more or less likely to be mafia.