The chance of Newcomb killing gravedigger waco n1 to get his role are very close to 0.
If he knows someone is exactly not the priest then he will not kill them n1.
Not a world.

Waco had close to no impact on the game with his 3 (?) posts on d1.
the only way he dies is priesthunt always.


I did ignore the clean check part.

The problem is that the dead scum would have needed to anticipate that scum move, without talking to their team.

Very unlikely for scum!vira. too much time has passed. Sure they could have set something up, but you would be more likely to set something like that up if the pagan is on your team.
Also Vira got killed in the middle of d1. scum would have needed to set up a play early in the day. Normally you give the demon vom advice 12 hours before the lynch, when you know it is going to happen.
Scum!Koalas sure.
Scum!slippery doesn't matter because in that world there was no demon until now.


And angels don't know about it, they always save owner last night.

I will give you that there is a world .. but the world is very small. As town i would have waited longer and tried to give town that double angel-save tonight. (as in turned haunts into saves, which with a dead priest just gives you a double save for free on 2 towns).
That is always the play and you guys didn't even want to kill typhon yesterday .. which means he would have died after tom. almost always giving him that one more night to be the hero.

Sure he is not confirmed scum .. but likely.
Combine that with his play up until now (not him being gone, that is fine) and I think the likelyhood of scum!typhon is rather big.

 

I mean, that's what I'm saying about my absence D3 being so unfortunate - the two possibilities are equally likely, I guess, and I was in a bad light anyway so there's nothing for me to do but just take it. It's a coup for scum because not only did they kill our priest but they made me look /horrible/ while doing it, and my mislynch loses us the game.

---------- Post automerged at 03:27 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:26 PM ----------

Ahh. That's tom.

 

Why does your lynch make us lose the game?

---------- Post automerged at 14:26 ---------- Previous post was at 13:46 ----------

Ok. Worlds:

vira/slippery/typh - makes sense
vira/koalas is probably out unless thug is the third. no other reason not to use the second kill. and even then townnewcomb catches it
vira/typh/[thug/jan/von]
vira/slippery/[jan/von]
newcomb/vira/?
newcomb/fuckidontknow

 

My lynch loses us the game assuming a nk goes through. 2-2 with a dead judge.

The nk going through isn't guaranteed, but it's not exactly a fringe case either.

 

So you think slip was town now?

 

Typh, why are you discounting Vira/slip worlds?

Didn't you believe in them the last two days?

---------- Post automerged at 18:14 ---------- Previous post was at 18:13 ----------

Also, very convincing thinking about Newcomb worlds there Tom. Very convincing.

 

Yeah, I'm not really thinking about newcomb worlds.

 

...because of last stand? Like, if there was one scum left then they'd have had 2 shots. I guess they could have not used one but I mean.

 

I'm assuming last stand wouldn't have triggered with slip dying in the night.

 

Wait, fuck. Your shot would have happened during the night, they'd have only had 1 shot even if slip was scum.

Ignore that, I was wrong about order resolved, we're not necessarily in a 2 alive world.

---------- Post automerged at 05:38 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:36 PM ----------

Yeah, ninja'd but yeah.

Slip was scummy as fuck, this makes me feel better about the gamestate and my reads. We're most likely in a vira/slip/x world, with the other option being some sort of Newcomb misinformation world.

Although I'd be interested in what Newcomb has to say wrt the flip.

 

Oh wait, is vira/koalas/typh still a thing?
Like, one kill bounced off newcomb or would we know about that somehow?

---------- Post automerged at 15:55 ---------- Previous post was at 15:55 ----------

Not that that matters really.

 

We would; all survivals are announced. You know, like when Mal survived a kill in this game?

Vira/Koalas/Typohn is not a thing, Kalas was town.

So this puts us kiiiiind of an awkward position.

Mal becomes confirmed town if we mislynch and the game continues and scum show 2 KP in the night (because he would have shot his partner Slip, and yeah no), but if Mal IS mafia here then we lose to a world of 2 if they get a shot through, since, no Judge.

I'm not budging on my townread of Von; if he gets one, he gets one, but yeah.

If Slip was mafia and we don't get his one remaining partner on toDay's lynch, we can confirm him as mafia when scum show 2 KP tonight.

I /think/ Slip was mafia. The amount of wrong I'd have to be to read Kalas/Slip that way and have there actually be none between them would be pretty <_<. And independent of that, like, look at his last ~5 posts. Or his last big post with reads. That post was not trying to drive a lynch or convince anyone of anything.

But the awkward spot is that I think we have to lynch as if we're in the worst possible world, 4/2 and Slip was town? Because we can't lose to a lone scum tonight even with 2 KP. Even in the worst case - mislynch and they hit both shots, we'd go into tomorrow at 2/1.

I don't know if I see a world of 2 here that makes a ton of sense, which is why I'm inclined to believe Slip was a hit and there's 1 alive, but killing with a hedge in mind still makes sense.

Which is why I want to lynch tom here. I think tom's just tripling down on his pocket attempt on me - like, "yeah, not really thinking about scum!Newcomb" worlds and that being his attitude throughout the entire game just doesn't seem like it comes from a town place, especially when you look at the treatment over multiple days. It was subtle, like he didn't over commit over-explaining a townread, but if you look at his ISO he goes from "yeah, that was town!Newcomb" at my catchup post and then just... runs with it.

I also think if tom's NOT the last mafia, he makes the most sense with worlds of two. tom/Typhon, I could see that owner push as just driving through a mislynch as a team (and then whoops Priest). tom/Mal, I could kiiiiinda see Mal distancing with that meta case and then just kinda whiffing and not being able to substantiate it and chalking it up as "manstincts". Kinda don't believe in that one.

Vote: tom

And yeah, I realize I'm coasting a bit. This isn't laziness, this is triage. I'm in a play right now that's gearing up to open during the last week of October and it's taking up increasingly more and more of my time, along with, you know, work.

Rough-and-tumble POE is still what this game feels like and it's definitely where my head is at. I think Von's town. I think Jan's town. I'm town and I have an extra life. I'm not seeing a ton of ways we can lose this.

 

Well thug survived. In the case of you the kill would have worked it just didn't do the trick.
But ok. Koalas town.

Are you actually scumreading me or is that just mechanical?

---------- Post automerged at 17:29 ---------- Previous post was at 17:24 ----------

I think he's just wrong, but when I saw that I at least considered scumthug trying to play on you/von's paranoia of me.

But also, me and thug just won together as mafia. No one here was in that game, but this ain't it. We would have just continued our personality-based distancing that worked so well.

---------- Post automerged at 17:32 ---------- Previous post was at 17:29 ----------

Also what play are you in?
How are the lights?

 

Would you be surprised if it were mechanical?

No one can read you via behavior or motivation.

Do you not think you make the most sense in a world of two? If you were to take a step back and look at it from any town player's POV but yours.

---------- Post automerged at 21:40 ---------- Previous post was at 21:39 ----------

hm

rereading my last post, it looks like a slip, me calling tom town like that

it isn't, tho

 

No, I wouldn't be surprised. But I do want him to answer, since typh seems like the best mechanical AND behavioral lynch to me.

Shrug. Unless newcomb or you is scum, we almost definitely win.

---------- Post automerged at 18:51 ---------- Previous post was at 18:46 ----------

I guess I make sense as a second, but really only by PoE and I think I've been pretty damn townie.
Basically:
vote typh
If it's not typh I have to consider something really crazy.
Like thug.

You/newcomb/jan has probably already won if scum.

---------- Post automerged at 18:52 ---------- Previous post was at 18:51 ----------

Jan is iffy, but I'm also the most sure he's town so me getting lynched might help the most for that world.
IDK.

---------- Post automerged at 18:54 ---------- Previous post was at 18:52 ----------

It also weirds me out a little that typh doesn't want to lynch me (or at least didn't) as I should be necessary for him to even have a chance, but I suspect he'll have to change his mind about that today.

 

Hmm, here's why I'm at:

If the scum team has 2 people left and both of them have an extra life, we've already lost . . . BUT super great angel Yomi could save us so Citrus wouldn't end the game. Whatever, I'm not going to consider these because they rely on the angels getting lucky.

If the scum team has 2 people left and one of them has an extra life, we have to lynch that extra life today to stand a chance. Last stand for more than one night is too many kill attempts. Lynching through 3 lives requires that only 1 out of the 3 nk attempts go through, but with double protect and the remaining roles, that's pretty doable.

 

Yeah I kind of agree with you re: you/Thug. I feel like the playstyle clash that I imagine you /could/ have you'd have played up more than you have if you're together, so meh.

The play is Other Desert Cities. I'm playing Trip.

The lights are good but kinda static. There aren't a lot of scene / set changes.

---------- Post automerged at 07:53 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:51 PM ----------

---------- Post automerged at 07:54 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:53 PM ----------

Seriously, I did actually kind of tinfoil you during the night after I got Kalas's flip, Snow. There's a world where you just coasted on tone and kinda backed the right incorrect town in me and tom and are just laughing at us behind your shirt.

I alllllmost wouldn't even be mad though, because if you pulled off some of the posts you've made this game as mafia you've improved your scumgame a lot and I /think/ after the salt wore off after a couple days, I'd actually be happy for you.

I'm pretty hypothetically / preemptively proud of myself for that.

---------- Post automerged at 07:55 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:54 PM ----------

fuck, I forgot to write the flavor for the hydra game I'm hosting.

later all

 

I'm town and none of what I've posted is faked.

Which makes me sad I'm still not able to fake it, but c'est la vie.

 

You should come be in a play I'm doing lights for.
I'm very good.

---------- Post automerged at 20:08 ---------- Previous post was at 20:07 ----------

Well, I'm pretty good at theatrical lighting.
I'm very good at lights for jam bands and funk.
It's all about experience.

---------- Post automerged at 20:09 ---------- Previous post was at 20:08 ----------

Anyway, I'm over here like "lynching typh makes us win right now" and y'all are like "no let's not lynch scum" and IDGI

 

I much preferred building/painting/shifting sets than lighting them.

Can we kill both of you?