Votecount 2.01

Majube (2): Prophylaxis, Jarizok
Prophylaxis (2): Majube, The Waco Kid
his fluffiness (1): Citrus
Jarizok (1): miner11121
Zenzao (1): mallorean_thug

Abstaining (5): Zenzao, his fluffiness, KaiDASH, owner, Bill Door

With 12 alive, it's 7 to Soft Lynch and 9 to Hard Lynch!

Day 2 will end Friday, November 18th at 2100 EST or immediately following a Hard Lynch. A timer is available here.

Previous Votals: 1.01 | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.04 | 1.05 | 1.06 | 1.07 | 1.08 [Final]

 

Citrus, that was mallorean, not me.

I have him currently in FoS range. He's been unremarkable and I don't particularly love him, but I also have a tendency to scum read him as town, so yea

 

Citrus

His late day 1 play was less than stellar, disappearing multiple times only to reappear and cast a vote (always with the majority), and then leaving again.

As for Proph, I'm going to reserve judgement until I get his analysis. If he doesn't post analysis and winds up doing the whole "catching up" thing again I'll vote him.

As for owner, I'm going to go back through day one and read her posts again. But no matter what, owner is not going to be the lynch today. I want her to survive til day 3, with reasons already outlined previously.

 

Yo Jarizok, that stuff I said I didn't like you were dong near deadline... you're still doing it, even though you claimed it was b/c proxy to deadline...

 

So here's where I'm at right now:

Town block:
Mallorean > Waco, Jarizok

Above null:
Majube

Read-null:
Zenzao, Miner

Delicious pile of lurking null:
Kai, Bill Door, Fluffiness

So some thoughts on Prophylaxis. In the flurry of D1 end, at one point he threw out the idea that he could be lynched as a replacement for Owner (and proceeded to claim). I'm not sure if I can wrap my mind around scum!Proph worlds for this. The only mindsets I can come up with are:

A) He knew it wouldn't happen to him in the end/was willing to take the risk
B) He wanted to save Owner
C) He wanted to tie himself to Owner
D) He wanted to get Delphine killed while she wasn't around (PR read, etc.)
E) He knew his performance would be bad this game, and didn't want to drag his teammates down

Where none of the above are mutually exclusive.

I think there's good reason behind thinking Owner and Prophylaxis are unaligned? Because in scum!Owner + scum!Proph worlds, there was a lot of shade thrown both of their ways and he volunteered to be lynched, which is pretty much the worst thing a scum!Proph + scum!Owner team could do. Like the only way I could see that happening is if he A) believes Owner can definitely pick it up D2 onwards and/or B) Proph's a vanilla scum and Owner is a power role that they needed to keep alive going into N1 (but then why would that be worth throwing himself under the bus?).

Also, in town!Owner and scum!Proph worlds, we were about to lynch a power role, and it /probably/ would have went through if he didn't intercede? Like that's a pretty high-risk move to make with a fairly mediocre reward in that world

Thoughts/agreement/refutation on the above anyone?

---------- Post automerged at 09:14 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:13 PM ----------

Who else is on your short list beyond Jarizok and Proph (if any)?

---------- Post automerged at 09:16 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:14 PM ----------
Zenzao place your vote somewhere please

---------- Post automerged at 09:18 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:16 PM ----------

Same, the issue is it's strongly tied to his posting rate, and this game like half of his posts have been empty too

mallorean_thug
Thoughts on Fluffiness right now?

 

Citrus Majube

Dislike the hammer vote, as well as the late day 1 play. Very similar to Jarizok's late day 1 as well.

What's most interesting to me about Majube was that I genuinely began townreading him a little bit due to his mid-day 1 posts since they seemed fairly towny, although a little bit disjointed in wording. Like he was posting a lot and posting frequently.

But then EOD came around and he started voting and the votes made no sense whatsoever to me. Random Proph vote on #595. And then #641 the defence of "Oh my basis for townreading him is apparently void so I should stop town-reading him" followed by his apparent lack of knowledge about wagons just feels scummy af.

---------- Post automerged at 10:29 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:23 PM ----------

The problem with this is that scum don't necessarily have to kill owner n1 because parity cop doesn't get a report until d3. This means that scum!Proph could intercede to win townie points while at the same time gaining more info and pushing for a lynch on a possible PR read like you said.

Like, I'm not saying Proph is scum here (still waiting for his analysis), but there's definitely a world where scum!Proph white knights for owner at EOD. Esp. considering he replaced in, so if he really did die it wouldn't be too much of an info giveaway for scum.

 

Yeah, I had a pretty weak basis for Proph but like I said before flash lynch wagon occurred I didn't think Proph wagon would actually go anywhere but all my top scum reads had no wagons. Wish we had lynched Bill Door because I'm pretty sure there must be at least 2/3 lurker scum

 

Um, I'm really sorry to let you down but I am like insanely busy this entire week leading up to Thanksgiving (this is exactly why I was willing to be a compromise lynch, but out of respect of the fact that I replaced into this game/my win condition, I gave it the best I could).

I'll try to do my best to carve out some analysis this week but don't expect much.

At the moment, I'm just mostly weirded out that everyone seems to have scintillating reads. Like, my town bloc is:

Jarizok
Zenzao
owner
Waco
mal
Kai
miner

..which is probably WAY TOO MUCH for Day 1 but I saw a lot of pretty tonally town posts from each of them.

Leaving behind a PoE of..

his fluffiness
Citrus
Bill Door
Majube

I was willing to take a dice roll on owner but now I want to shift to my legitimate scumread.

 

I'm going to do flavour since noones posting right now

For claritySource:https://www.fanfiction.net/s/9886296/35/Papa-Lion-Mama-Snake
Basically, you don't have to read the chapter but would this count as Anti-town, Scum acting as town, or just regular town goofing up. Also is this flavour-y or just annoying 'cos I stumbled upon this in almost recc and this just resonated with me as mafia suspicion.

---------- Post automerged at 11:56 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:54 PM ----------

Dammit proph couldn't have waited one minute

 

Why are they terrible? I was paranoid about Delphine flipping town because the wagon actually went through; what's the scum mindset for me posting that?

 

Can we run up Bill Door vs KaiDASH?

Day2 Vote Bill Door

---------- Post automerged at 23:10 ---------- Previous post was at 23:09 ----------

I actually think that Bill Door's big post on owner looks bad regardless of owner's alignment.

And KaiDASH never explained the "scumtell" he saw from me early that owner latched onto. And while I think owner's stuff was scummier than Kai's, he kind of just dropped the topic while I was savaging owner, and never either stood up for owner, or went after me again.

---------- Post automerged at 23:11 ---------- Previous post was at 23:10 ----------

Also, even with a 10 person flash wagon on town that clearly succeeded with scum's help, I still want to lynch outside the main wagon on Day2. That rule has literally never failed me.

 

Hmm, I didn't realize he was vote-flailing at Day end, I think I was mostly absorbed by Owner's posts.

Would you say he's unaligned with Proph then?

And ehhhhh. I /guess/ no info until two nights have passed means it's not a huge deal if she doesn't get mislynched D1.

What about the part concerning scum!Owner && scum!Proph world though? Does that hold up, or you think that's a risky assumption to make?

I don't really understand this sentence, can you clarify por favor?

 

1. Will respond to in a bit.
2. Will also vote in a bit, making a case or two below.

Alright, Waco makes the better point on the matter. I would like to know how you managed to post the following at DayEnd given the walls and opinions so many other players managed to accumulate to that point however,

Nothing? After 800ish posts and 525's,

among several other posts testing the waters against Jarizok, Majube, miner, Bill, Waco, and Proph(from a quick if short refresher through your more recent posts)? You don't feel like you have any meaningful town-leans to offer at DayEnd when you stand just as much a chance as anyone of being NK'd? I find that suspect.

From reading Bill I see a possibility of a you/Bill/Maj triumvirate, and another of you/Bill/Owner, although you've made plenty of town and seemingly-town-POV posts(the latter world negating any positive in your interactions with owner).

Pulling from my QT Notes,

Bill:
That 72-75 exchange between he and Mal, hm... I mean, I could see the end of his 72 as a sort of on-the-nose "hey fellow scummates lets chat in here and I won't call attention to you"? Then Mal following that up by just straight up calling him scum. And in explaining to Jarizok about newb scum being bad at interacting with teammates... I mean, are they both laying it out for Majube how to react in the thread? Then Bill's blood purist line and counter-voting Mal. Bussing like that? Eeeeeeeeh.
93. Bothers me. Calls attention to Mal and myself as trying too hard for scum, possibly chastising his teammate, and votes miner for a lack of content - but later on he says nothing at all about owner's content-heavy post other than "nah brah too long didn't read"?
96. Yeah, you're only just above Delphine in terms of post count at 26 Bill. Encouraging Majube to pick up his pace?
111. Technically speaking 'my qt' could also reference ScumHiveMindCentral with owner's parity cop claim if that is even true.
130. Chastising owner on trying to get a consensus on me?
227. the owner "TLDR no comments k thx" post.
251 quoting mal on the matter of scumchat, and mal's quote also being on-the-nose stating to miner that they aren't chatting much in there.
253. Refusing to push a wall that could be traced back to him later on, still calls out miner and Citrus as scum-leans.
254-255 interaction with Citrus again calling out miner for lack of content yet he doesn't concern himself overmuch about owner's lengthy posts.
260. On the one hand I agree with this line. On the other, he's telling miner in-thread to come to his own decisions while probably in-scumchat doing otherwise.
374. Sort of reverse-wall. Definitively calls out Majube as newb!scum, still fingering miner as scum, approves of Waco, myself, and Delphine as town. Says Kai isn't doing anything but doesn't give him any shit over it. Again ignores owner and calls her prob-town. Wants to lynch miner/Majube in that order even though he has Maj as the higher-probability read at the top of his post.
377. He finally makes a decent point, against Citrus' definition of lynching scum.
441. Finally acknowledges owner and seems to be well and truly pissed, as if some gambit was pulled without his prior approval. Yet according to Waco and such owner doing this is not in itself a tell, although it is within meta reasons as town so wouldn't scum!owner be just as likely to try it anyway? I think he's really harping on because he already claimed priest/cop(IIRC) earlier re: the reference to the 'my qt' line. Smells like bussing, distancing should things continue to go south on owner because of her gambit.
464. Calls out miner/Majube/owner for scum team. Says miner could be swapped out.

Miner.
98. He says he can't form a strong opinion on anyone D1, then points the finger at Jarizok and Majube for likely scum.
101. miner says Maj and Jarizok's interactions felt planned, gives fluff a pass for unfamiliarity.
Originally missed part of his 105. Says he played with Waco, owner, Kai, Citrus, myself, and Mal. I mean, six out of thirteen players feels like a decent amount to me, more than "not played with many people here at all". Maybe not played in scumchat with them, but that's mostly reaching. Gives the strongest town-lean to me, using Mimefia meta to justify. Kind-of-sort-of town-leans Mal but hedges his bets to call him null at the end.
108. uses an excuse of not buying into the merits of RVS though he admits it can be helpful. This will be relevant with avoiding votal analysis.
156. miner notes his read wall and owner's are similar, with Maj now being null and lean-town on Mal, no-tell on Waco but "waiting for him to pop back in to see what he says".
miner posts a wall in 258. Has Jarizok beneath Majube despite pressing for Majube to that point? And saying it was likely only one scum between them so often? He's one who has Prophidrome low and Delphine in his "null/neutral" listing toward the bottom-middle. Not sure why he's also scum-leaning HF here.
312. Explains hesitancy to vote. Smells like total crap. Can't place him down the road if he never votes until the last minute eh? Until this point my re-read was having me null-town him but this just reeks. Mal calls him out without pointing this out and votes him, threatens to stay there until miner votes. (Mal's phrasing here... "Hi Kai, I won't let you get lynched"? And calling Delphine out as scum).
315 miner doubles-down on refusal to vote. Mal calls him out again in 316. HF contributes to this in 317 and provides the explanation that Mal has not. 320. Miner only quotes Mal before voting for Jarizok. Say's he wants a case from Waco to vote for Maj, same to me for Prophydrome, doesn't want to lynch outside of them.
449. Will scrutinize properly later. Note excessive resistance to voting Kai however.

With miner I see a lot of contradictory statements and/or waffling. Trying to stay centered and not give a great deal of anchorage to his opinions.

At DayEnd, here is where my head was at for probable scum following Delphine's flip.
Owner, Majube.

Following re-reading Delphine and some of her interactions,
Owner, Majube, Bill, miner, Citrus, Kai.

Following re-reading Bill and his own interactions afterward,
Mal, Bill, Majube, OR Mal, Bill, owner.

Following re-reading miner and his own interactions afterward,
Mal|owner, Bill|miner, Kai.

Lynch Vote Bill Door.

 

(part of this is leaving people on the main wagon alive is fantastic for votal analysis later)

 

I'm also ok with this

Vote: Bill Door

Main wagon being the lynch wagon, or the wagon on Owner prior to the final-hour-blitz?

---------- Post automerged at 10:13 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:13 PM ----------

Whoa that's...really tiny text Zenzao

---------- Post automerged at 10:16 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:13 PM ----------
Zenzao
So on the colored groupings at the end of the analysis, are those your holistic thoughts with extra consideration to the specific re-reads, or is that reads based solely on those players' posts?

 

Wanted to differentiate between my current thoughts and the QT stuff written yesterday afternoon clearly.

Colored groups at the end; I'd say its in consideration of the re-reads plus how they reacted to other players and general behavior. So more the former rather than the latter.

Also, I've got to knock out ~550 words from now to 23:59. I'll be back when I've done that.

---------- Post automerged at 23:24 ---------- Previous post was at 23:20 ----------

EBWOP: *this afternoon, not yesterday afternoon. This is what happens when I push back writing a 500 Club entry until the last chance.

 

I was willing to roll the dice on lynching Delphine with owner to see if Delphine would flip scum or not. Since she didn't, I want to vote my main scumread, which is Majube.

 

The actual lynch wagon.

---------- Post automerged at 23:54 ---------- Previous post was at 23:51 ----------

Hey Zen, why did you pick Bill Door as your vote target?

Lynching me and getting my flip would allow you to know whether to trust owner's results tomorrow or not.

And you have Kai as scum in every world?

 

Because we're going to lynch owner tomorrow(per the D1 DayEnd consensus to move first to Proph and then post-HP VT claim onto Delphine)? Which should clear the air between the two of you on her flip. I'm also waiting for your actual response to my accusation and/or notes, in addition to Bill being the common thread that Delphine pointed out in an scum!owner world and from my rundown of his interactions and behavior.

Kai was a light scum-lean coming off of reading Delphine. He wasn't there following reading Bill, but reading miner over in conjunction with the others pushed up Kai to probable scum(see the yellow highlights across the notes).

 

I don't really anything to respond to regarding myself.

I'll make some comments on Bill Door / miner stuff after they've reacted themselves.