I know I said I'd be up longer but this is one of those nights where sleep is more important than staying up even for anime. Hope to see the thread going somewhere tomorrow.

 

Took a late flight home. Will post tomorrow.

 

Had to go to a wake before work last night. Will be back posting tonight

 

PSA: I have exams (Finals basically) Monday-Wednesday, so I'm V/LA through Wednesday unfortunately (I'll try to check in every now)

Vote: Prophylaxis

Is this a place-holder vote? Because the last time you did something like this was D2 when you placed your vote on Kai, and other than my vote nothing came of it for 1-2 IRL days

---------- Post automerged at 01:47 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:45 PM ----------

The redacted on Kai -> I thought he was purposefully playing low activity as a PR trying to not get night-killed. But I see he randomly claimed vanilla right at Day-end so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Citrus, that is not a placeholder vote at all.

Reviewing Jarizok's stuff, why don't you think he's spewed Proph clear?

---------- Post automerged at 14:57 ---------- Previous post was at 14:56 ----------
Prophylaxis , Are you going to do something? Anything?

 

I hope he does something.

vote Prophylaxis

 

Ok, so here's some Zenzao things from during the end of day scramble:

When Majube was clear, he immediately reached for miner:

His wall from earlier

Support, not support for miner looked something like this around that time:

Then, he posts this:

Note, the Majube post he's responding to wasn't saying Jarizok was scum, she was saying Proph was scum and asking Jarizok to consolidate onto him.

As a refresher, here's his most recent mentions of Jarizok before this:

Spoiler

So, he thinks miner is scum, establishes a clean wagon instead of consolidating onto Kai, but then doesn't post a case against miner. And as soon as Majube even mentions Jarizok, his mind immediately leaps to jarizok scum.

Then we get this flurry of posts:

Spoiler

and Zen immediately takes the initiative and jumps on Jarizok

But seems very open to switching to Proph if he can find another vote or two.

----

So now that I've shown you Zenzao's progression, let's take a look at our most important votals at the end of yesterday

So, thing #1, is that with Majube/owner both town, and Jarizok scum, unless the scumteam is exactly [Jarizok/Citrus/Proph] there's at least 1 scum to find on Jarizok.

In the world where Proph is town, the scumteam thought they had an easy consolidation lynch on Proph, but when Jarizok was brought up, they did the vote math and realized he was doomed. Let's also do the vote math for right before Fluff's accusation at Jarizok.

Proph will vote for Proph's counterwagon.
Mal will vote for Proph's counterwagon.
Miner wanted to lynch Majube or Jarizok, and will want to switch to Jarizok as soon as he shows up again.
Kai will probably stay on Proph.
Owner is suggesting a Proph/Jarizok/miner scumteam, so would be fine with either.
Majube is a wildcard but has suggested all of Proph/Bill Door/Jarizok recently.
Waco has Jarizok in his PoE, but also has Proph in his PoE.
Bill Door has yet to vote Proph all game.
Zen has Jarizok much higher on his most recent readwall than Proph, will probably stay Proph.
Citrus is ???? but seemingly irl not available.

From all of that, I'd say that Fluff, Bill Door, and Waco are all clear if Proph is town. If Proph is scum, they could have decided that he was more likely to be useful later, and wanted the bussing cred, but if they had tried, they probably could have gotten a different flash consolidation lynch on town instead.

Proph is not clear because self-pres is null.

I am not clear because I pre-committed to not lynching Proph.

Miner is not clear because he pre-committed to lynching Jarizok. Do note that this is a pretty hard buss, because he'd been kind of chasing Jarizok all day, but he had "given up" to lynch Majube instead and couldn't have guessed she'd claim.

Which leaves Zen and Kai. Since they're the two that switched vote allegiance in a situation where vote math made a Jarizok lynch likely, they're the ones that are most likely to be opportunistically bussing. Like, if Fluff or Bill or Waco were scum and counting votes, they wouldn't have seen a Jarizok lynch as inevitable because they wouldn't have counted on Zen or Kai. But Zen and Kai BOTH would have seen a Jarizok lynch as inevitable given people's publicly states positions.

---

Oh and separately, people /did/ tell Majube not to reveal this, but I don't think anybody explicitly called out the question/questioner as scummy yet.

---------- Post automerged at 16:57 ---------- Previous post was at 16:37 ----------

These two posts:
Spew Citrus clear
Spew me clear
Spew Proph clear
Probably spews Fluff clear
Implicates one of Bill/Kai
Slightly implicates Zenzao.

 

My claim was very relevant, thanks.

 

How does that clear Citrus?

---------- Post automerged at 10:21 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:16 PM ----------

I don't think I've ever seen a scum readlist that doesn't spread their teammates out a bit. And new scum are more likely to put their teammates too high rather than too low since they haven't learned the value of a good hard bus yet. I think of those three playstyles the ignoring is more likely but also it's always going to be somewhere in between the three extremes.

 

Bill, the Citrus part is less strong, but I just don't think that newb!scum jarizok talks to and about his scumbuddy quite like he was talking to citrus.

---------- Post automerged at 17:31 ---------- Previous post was at 17:30 ----------

Kai, who do you think the full scumteam is?

I'm leaning towards you/Zenzao/Jarizok.

 

So where's the contradiction and/or problem? Miner was my next highest scum-lean and with Majube's doctor claim coupled with the general agreement being to wait for owner's (now proven pointless) checks, why wouldn't I vote on miner at that time? Was I supposed to immediately swing around and vote on Jarizok?

And? I've been scum-leaning miner all game. My re-read of his posts N1 covered my thoughts on him to that point fairly well.

The way I read her post was not 'Jarizok, consolidate or not with me?' it was 'Consolidate on Jarizok or not?' This is why punctuation matters, and you can't fault me here given how scrambled she had been before.

#1046 and following was testing Jarizok's statement in #1044 that Fluff called out Bill in RVS. If Jarizok was actually paying much attention to Fluff's posts(and with how few HF has) to town-read him so hard it should not have slipped his mind that Fluff called out me, and I specifically put that asterisk there as a subtle indication that I wasn't being truthful with him.

Jarizok's #1047 is rather telling in and of itself in addressing my question to him. He tried claiming Fred Weasley bulletproof IIRC later on, which lead to Kai claiming George Weasley VT.

What is this about consolidating onto Kai? I've already given my main reasons as of D1/N1 on why I was scum-leaning miner and IIRC I have not swayed on that since my #844.

Also, rewind to owner and my interaction. Jarizok clinging to HF was already suspect in my mind but between her and then HF himself finally, finally, saying something I began to reconsider my earlier doubts on Jarizok.

Nice try but wrong. Already covered this above.

The two choices at that point were Proph and Jarizok. I'd been arguing for a while then that Proph may have been scum instead of VT and Jarizok's Bulletproof claim had me doubting him but not as much as Proph at that point.

Yeah, I'ma stop you here a moment. How do you know owner is town and that Maj did not defend scum by accident? The whole purpose in not lynching owner the past two Days was for her checks, and surprise surprise she doesn't have anything to offer on that front, which is essentially what I expected D1 post freak-out PR claim from her.

Also, why Citrus in this suggestion?

One thing; this isn't how I votal analysis and I've never heard the term vote math before in a game. My head isn't on how to swing votes like this, it's on looking back through the voting pattern to see who is consistent and who is not.

One of her and owner would likely die if both were town and it did not occur to me until after I'd posted that question that it could be a problem. I've done this kind of thing before because I don't tend to plan out what I'm going to say or do in advance in most circumstances.

I also find it funny that you skipped over my #1084 which should have been viewed with some shade,

given that Jarizok tried to claim (Fred?) Weasley and Kai popped up with George.

 

Sure zen, what's your current scumteam?

 

I thought all the jarizok/citrus interactions were as neutral as neutral gets.

---------- Post automerged at 10:56 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:51 PM ----------

What you're suggesting that scum intentionally no killed?

 

With an incomplete re-read, Proph, Miner|You|owner(chiefly for the lack of checks).

QT:
11-19-2016
11:21 AM
<insert long suffering sigh> Time for more re-reading. Starting with Jarizok and following the thread along.

Of course the introduction of Waco>Jarizok>Majube feels even shadier with Scum!Jarizok's flip confirmed. Majube's complete and total resistance to Jarizok dying D2 ties back into this.

11. Pressing for interaction info on miner/Waco that he can use later.
20. Jarizok seems too invested in Waco's RVS on Maj. IIRC neither of them know about RVS at this stage of the game, thus is he concerned that Waco has already nailed one of his partners?
Maj's 25. Still bothering me, no town points awarded for this vote on Jarizok. Trump!Kai later claims George to deny Jarizok's Fred.
27. Jarizok calling out Maj for the vote. Waco's 31, hm. "I don't have friends at the start, Jarizok. I make friends from sharing experiences." Jarizok was quite determined to make himself a loud and regular presence in the thread, amassing more interactions and experiences.
That Maj 32-33 banter with Jarizok. Is Waco's 34 tied into Maj's original pre-Edit post? Otherwise where did this come from?
Waco's 37. Laying the groundwork for newb!Maj at the end.


11-19-2016
05:05 PM ET
64. "Ima call it a night and write it up as a succes". While he adds on that this is just to do with his avatar, looking at his previous posts is there actually something in there for a newb!scum mindset to see as good work accomplished?
73, "I'm awake, we can continue playing now guys." On its own it's nothing much but then Mal's 74 just comes off bad IMO in hindsight(he's telling Jarizok to branch out from chiefly interacting with Waco and to talk to lots of people because 'newb scum are bad at interacting with teammates'. Goes rather in depth on the process.
81. He seems to take the wrong conclusion to Mal's previous post. Defer's to Mal on town!fluff and scum!Bill. Town-leans Waco. Calls out Maj and Delphine for scummiest behavior so far. Mal's folowup 82: Fluff can wait til tomorrow. Bill is scum.
83-84. "I got about the same as you did from fluff. Not sure Bill's limited play feels scummy to me just yet, but if less play equals more scummy, I'd really like some post from Drom Citrus Kai and Owner in here." Jarizok claims to see fluff from the same perspective, Mal chastises him and calls him out - but also offers for him to explain his own 'feelings' on fluff.
85. Asks me for an opinion on miner and Delphine that I've already clearly answered before this, want's to know why I'm town-leaning Mal now.
87. Answers Mal on fluff, but after previously saying "could be convinced of fluff's town" suddenly saying "Dropping a hint like that felt townie to me" seems like he wasn't expecting Mal to address him the way he did and had to pull back some and find a reason. Is this scum!Mal or town!Mal interacting with him here?
89. Following my vote on him and explanation on why I'm town-leaning mal, Jarizok tries to use the same wording to set himself up to come out in a better light.
Bill's 93 in hindsight comes off worse regarding Jarizok, and then myself and mal scumhunting.
94. Answers me with more of an elaboration on why he's town-leaning fluff now and maybe offers a bit too much of his insight without intending to have.
miner's 98. Since we now know there is indeed at least one scum between Jarizok and Majube(and I'm writing this as of 16:24 today so I don't know how the flips are going to go soon) he bears more examination.
99. Calls out miner. But did he just scumslip with the 'she'? Maj/Drome/Owner on his mind?
miner's 101 now feels a little better.
103. Responds to miner on fluff, asks for info on other player behavior "that would be good for the rest of us to pay attention to". Is this why Jarizok(among others) did not respond to my reverse-wall in a bit?
miner's 105 in response. Telling Jarizok to read my meta from Mimefia, and since the posts in my signature are directly related to wall-oriented circumstances... town-leans mal with less certainty than myself.
Palindrome's 107... [redacted]?


11-19-2016
05:23 PM ET
miner's 108 and Jarizok's 110... use of the term Auror=Cop. Why does Jarizok mimic miner here on the term when he explains "I assumed priest=healer=doctor and auror=cop"?
owner's 129... Okay, I can see something of Snape in this. Among other things.

She call's out Waco as scum, asks Jarizok why he's town-leaning Waco. That weirdness with Bill. Wants mal to explain his behavior, hm. Then she brings up setup talk(and a part of me is mildly outraged that she tried to scum-read me for mentioning a possibility of 3P/SK role when she does it first here!). She also tries to universal-town-read me. Why that weirdness with Palindrome at the end?

131. Jarizok answers owner and explains his own view.
And I'm done with this for now. I'll jump to the end a bit with Jarizok's 524. Doesn't want to lynch Proph when more juicy prospects in owner and majube are available. Possibly clears both owner and Majube. We'll find out tonight.

And that's all I've done since before N2 ended. Kai claiming George against Jarizok's false!Fred has me on the fence on him. HF's posts around the time Maj claimed and the wagon started to build on Jarizok have brought him up some. miner has made one post toDay that is still essentially neutral-ing his way through the game.

To avoid offering town any clarification on the doubts raised D1? Yes, I think with an experienced player backing them, they would do that. Especially if they have meaningful abilities(a bullet-proof scum?).

Elsewise the possibilities I see are 1. that there is a roleblocker but for town, and they managed to hit the scum player assigned to perform the NK. I believe that was how it worked in Bat2. or 2. a godfather or equivalent role is the only one who can perform the faction NK and they were AFK/cbf to ensure it happened N1.

Seeing that supposedly-town!Owner does not have checks to offer us toDay, that should imply the scum do have a roleblocker and thus 1 is out, and 2 just doesn't seem viable even with a dysfunctional scumteam schedule.

---------- Post automerged at 18:10 ---------- Previous post was at 18:08 ----------

EBWOP: I suppose that also there could be a 3. the scum kill N1 targeted an actual bulletproof townie but giving both scum and town bulletproof roles?

 

Has literally anyone here ever seen scum intentionally no kill n1? Purely for wine purposes. Especially when it was odds on at the time that we lynch owner d3. Occam's razor has to apply here. You can do some mental gymnastics to make a scum!owner world seem plausible but it's still never the most likely.

 

I've never actually seen a scum no-kill n1.

---------- Post automerged at 06:16 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:15 PM ----------

Also Citrus, given your wall on post 1057, why did you stay on the proph wagon?

 

One time in a witchhunt there was a n1 kill blocked by angel protection with the only angel being scum himself.

 

I think I remember that one, but I never understood why he protected as scum. Still, I think we can safely assume that was not the case in this game.

 

Sorry, it's 10 alive, not 11. Which means Hard Lynch is 8.

o~o~o~o~o

Votecount 3.01

Prophylaxis (4): KaiDASH, Zenzao, Citrus, owner
KaiDASH (1): Bill Door
Zenzao (1): mallorean_thug

Abstaining (4): miner11121, The Waco Kid, his fluffiness, Prophylaxis

With 10 alive, it's 6 to Soft Lynch and 8 to Hard Lynch!

Day 3 will end Tuesday, November 22nd at 2100 EST or immediately following a Hard Lynch. A timer is available here.

Previous Votals: 1.01 | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.04 | 1.05 | 1.06 | 1.07 | 1.08 [Final] ||| 2.01 | 2.02 | 2.03 | 2.04 | 2.05 | 2.06 | 2.07 | 2.08 [Final] |||

 

You got any thoughts on today's lynch fluff?