Citrus hasn't been the most active. But I can't really recall him doing anything too suspicious though. But I guess that's what this reread is for.

That would make sense why Waco died over me if that's the world. (though simultaneous I am paranoid of it being a frame job)

Mal pinged me day 1, and Proph pinged me day 2. Like I said, Citrus hasn't really pinged me. There was maybe instance where I questioned his wording, but off the top of my head I don't recall what he said.

Overall, I guess I feel safer lynching between Proph and Mal at the moment.

 

Tbh owner, I think you might have reached the point where you've convinced yourself of this world so much you've blinded yourself to any other possibility.

 

This world is now Mal and Proph not Miner and Proph.

My read changed slightly or do you feel I'm still blinded?

Why do you read Citrus as scum?

---------- Post automerged at 08:03 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:00 PM ----------

Side Question: Bill would you ever really listen to my reads in the first place? yes or no

 

I am listening to your reads, I just disagree

---------- Post automerged at 01:28 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:08 AM ----------

Hmm... So we have two competing world views atm. The proph + 1 world (advocated by owner) or the kai/citrus scum (my preferrence) world?

Say we lynch proph:
a) he flips scum = profit
b) flips town = poopy times, we lynch kai or citrus next.

Say we lynch Kai:
a) he flips scum = profit
b) flips town = poopy times, we again gotta choose between proph scum world and citrus scum world.

Say we lynch Citrus:
a) he flips scum = profit
b) flips town = poop, etc, choose between the two worlds.

So the hardest choice here is between the two worlds, lynching proph now is the fastest way to settle that choice. We can afford one mislynch. I'm kinda leaning towards lynching proph.

Does this logic make sense to anyone else or am I just going crazy this late at night. But I'm willing to

Vote Prophylaxis

 

I'm amenable to that idea. If Proph flips scum, who is the +1 in that case? owner

 

owner is pushing mal as proph's partner. I'd need to go back through all of their interactions to make up my mind on that.

 

his fluffiness thoughts?

I'm not sold on Proph being scum, but this mislynch makes POE the easiest, because at least we will all be on the same page tomorrow.

Unvote
Vote: Prophylaxis

 

Hi, thank you Bill Door and Fluff. Keep up the good work.

Kai, your weasley counterclaim against Jarizok is about as convincing as you nursing fontisian. However, your eloquence today has slaked my thirst for now.

I would like to lynch miner>Citrus>owner(???)

Day4 Vote miner11121

Overnight, I became pretty convinced that Citrus was scum. But we can wait until he's back from V/LA to pursue that.

miner is currently, among other things, suggesting we lynch town so we don't have to think as hard. Like, I'm saying that he's trying to lynch somebody I think is town (but he is), I'm saying he's trying to lynch somebody /he/ thinks is town. Which is, uh, /not/ towny.

and that should end it.

But if it doesn't, its because we're modgaming owner's claim instead of paying attention to bahavior, so she can die in final 4.

Fluff is Just Town.
Bill is Just Town.
Proph is Just Town.
Kai is Just Town Enough and idk, maybe I'd lynch him in final 3 instead.

Sorry scum team, your necessary mislynches turned out to be power roles, and the jarizok flash wagon was very unfortunate.

 

Hi there, I was saved night 1. What are you trying to do?

---------- Post automerged at 10:11 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:09 PM ----------

Hey Mal, I'm top poster, and I have almost twice as many posts as you do. Why are you slacking?

---------- Post automerged at 10:12 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:11 PM ----------

Also, thanks Mal for finally joining us.

---------- Post automerged at 10:14 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:12 PM ----------

What changed your thoughts on Bill and Kai?

I mean I've been reading them as town for a lot longer than you have so I'm just curious what your reasons are.

And I'm curious why you are trying to get a parity cop like myself mislynched down the road?

 

I'm slacking because I'm lazy. Just not quite as lazy as Kai.

Also, its not really +EV to talk about how you'll vote in final 3 anyways.

 

Mal

10 char

---------- Post automerged at 10:17 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:16 PM ----------

Could you remind again what +EV means?

---------- Post automerged at 10:20 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:17 PM ----------

That abbreviation of whatever it is always confuses me.

I mean why don't you just say what you mean?

 

I've thought Bill was town since about 2/3s of the way through Day2 when I stopped pushing him and started pushing Kai.

Now that was around the same time that I also stopped being paranoid about Citrus, but I've remedied that.

Honestly, I'm already waffling back on Kai. But as miner has looked worse, he's looked much better.

 

okay

10 char

 

Hi mal.

Can you give a little more reasoning other than "He's trying to lynch town!" for your reason to push on me? Like, how can you possibly know Proph is town?

I've already stated that Proph is not my ideal lynch (I'd like to get Kai/Citrus today), but it will make people agree on worlds, and therefore I will go for it.

---------- Post automerged at 10:28 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:27 PM ----------

This is the last of me for tonight. Going to bed.

As always, ping me if you have questions. I'll be back tomorrow.

 

I did say what I meant.

Would you rather I say:

The strategy of "Discussing how you'll vote in final three" does not have a positive expected value for town. That is, given an average of all of the possible outcomes, the situations where that helps town do not outweigh the situations where it hurts town. This is either because the amount it helps town in the best cases is dwarfed by the amount it hurts town in the worst cases, or because the number of situations where it helps town is much smaller than the number of situations where it hurts town. Or possibly both of those at the same time.

 

I still don't get what +EV means.

 

Sure, let's look at your very next statement:

Ok, so

1. No, get your ideal lynch. This is a closed setup, so for all you know, we could be in MYLO right now.
2. Assuming we aren't in MYLO, scum's best chance of winning does not involve bussing their partner, getting a mislynch, and then winning final 4. Scum's best chance of winning is getting two more mislynches in a row. Why would you help them with that?
3. Seriously, if you think the world is exactly Kai/Citrus, why would you lynch outside of that? There definitely seems to be enough Citrus votes for it to go through? Were you miscalculating where you thought my vote would go?
4. How would it make people "agree on worlds?"? Do you think that the only possible scumteam in town!proph + town!miner worlds is Kai/Citrus? That's yuge if true. Show me the reasoning for that! And if you're assuming that already, work to show that Proph is town!

Except, oh wait, you also posted this in that same post:

I don't know, do you think Proph is town?

Like, you're not saying "Hey guys, either Proph is scum, or its Kai/Citrus. And I'm not sure which is the case, but I think Proph is more likely". You're saying, "Hey everybody, its Kai/Citrus because I'm pretty sure Proph is town, and I'll prove it to you by lynching him"

---------- Post automerged at 22:46 ---------- Previous post was at 22:44 ----------

+EV = good for town from a game theory prospective

http://thefinalwager.com/2013/12/18/guide-to-game-theory-expected-value-independent-events-gamblers-fallacy/

---------- Post automerged at 22:48 ---------- Previous post was at 22:46 ----------

+EV = positive Expected Value

---------- Post automerged at 23:26 ---------- Previous post was at 22:48 ----------

Wall of unnecessary replies:

Spoiler

As it turns out, some scum teams are smart enough to not try to lynch me. I think I'll keep up my strong offense is a strong defense strat next game too though, and I fully believe that Zen and I could have hashed things out given more time (Just like dC and I could have hashed things out given more time in Cathunt)

lolscum

lolproph, you were just around for Murderless in townsville where Iso, Vox, and I made the 2 counterwagons to the scum we started on and they were both on scum too. You know better than to make this argument.

How many people do you expect to be able to lynch in the rest of the game? Like, you're talking about what would happen if Citrus/Kai doesn't end it, but you're not talking about which of those two is /more/ likely to be scum, and what possible pairings would look like. Please give me something in the form of "I think Kai is the most likely scum, and Citrus his most likely buddy, but if Citrus is town, I think mal_thug is Kai's buddy" Or something.

ORLY?

How accurate would you say the co-voting tell has been this game? What about the tie-break tell? Or the "off parking in the middle of nowhere" tell? Anything? Or are you just repeating some cursory stuff about the jarizok wagon that isn't actually votal analysis?

(protip, votal analysis isn't super great when you mostly have stagnant wagons on town and a modkill cuts day3 short. And its more useful in larger games anyways)

This is just as lol worthy as miner's statement earlier about you.

lol

After everybody else went so readwall happy, I decided not to post one this game. Sorry.

That's an accurate description of my play that game. I've been specifically trying to move my meta towards less words and analysis and more questions and snark though, so I'm not sure I'd say its an accurate description of games before that, or how I've planned to play games since then.

Huh, I didn't catch this before, but Kai is completely missing what Proph is saying there. (protip, its that Kai's "weird" claim could only come from town, not the opposite). Kai, aren't you usually more perceptive as town?

*says fluff* . . .

That /was/ coaching

 

Votecount 4.02

Prophylaxis (4): owner, KaiDASH, Bill Door, miner11121
Citrus (2): his fluffiness, Prophylaxis
miner11121 (1): mallorean_thug

Abstaining (1): Citrus

With 8 alive, it's 5 to Soft Lynch and 6 to Hard Lynch!

Day 4 will end Friday, November 25th at 2100 EST (extended by 24 hours due to the holidays) or immediately following a Hard Lynch. A timer is available here.

Previous Votals: 1.01 | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.04 | 1.05 | 1.06 | 1.07 | 1.08 [Final] ||| 2.01 | 2.02 | 2.03 | 2.04 | 2.05 | 2.06 | 2.07 | 2.08 [Final] ||| 3.01 ||| 4.01

 

If you're not sold on him being scum (why use the word mislynch here unless you know something we don't), then voting for him is a terrible idea.

 

Hey does miner sound like someone who has no idea how to get the lynch off his dead weight buddy?

---------- Post automerged at 04:41 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:40 PM ----------

(lock him up.gif)