Also, I'm fairly happy with townlean on Jan. I'd rather lump Koalas or Kai if we're goona lump a nullread

---------- Post automerged at 12:06 ---------- Previous post was at 12:05 ----------

Whoops, ninja'd.

---------- Post automerged at 12:08 ---------- Previous post was at 12:06 ----------

When Jan asked me to think about why he was weakballin the way he was if neither town nor scum should play like that, I came up with something. Jan's town in that scenario. Don't want to share just yet.

 

Miner is scum here. He'll get his own post where I'll go through why we're lynching him today in an hour or so, have some phone calls I'm expecting for early birthday wishes shortly so it an happen when they're done, I'll also go through my read on Math then too.

SCUM (S->W): Miner, (Gap), Waco, Fluff

I don't see what Fonti did re; Wacos early game, his early scum read on her in #45 and #51 don't come across as a genuine suspicion. I find a lot of his initial catch up (When he was going through pages 10/14 ect.) to be very underwhelming with the only real content from it being his case on Math in #478 and while I don't entirely disagree with his resoning I think it's a very easy push to make as scum. His next content is his case on Miner in #513 which a significantly stronger case than the one on Math but he maintains keeping his vote on Math, I think that particular act and stance in #707 makes a lot of sense if the scum team involves Miner+Waco+1. The larger issues I have with him is I don't see a real progression in reads from him or an attempt to gamesolve, about the only town read I could tell you he has outright stated after having just gone through his ISO is on Von, the fact that his only two real elaborated reads are his scum reads on Math and Miner and that his vote has been on Math since post 50 this day phase, I often see scum treat their vote that stagnantly.

I found Fluffs entrance post in #10 to match with an awkward scum entrance and disliked his response to Typhon in #30. I find the timing of his vote on Math in #373 to be really opportunistic and didn't find the other reads inside the post to be genuine. Don't agree with Snows reasoning of "He'd have contributed more as scum", that's touching the "Too scummy to be scum" fallacy which is wrong more than it's right. Outside of those I think Fluffs been actively lurking / not providing much content throughout the day, think there's a reasonable chance that Fluffs scum here. The only hesitation I have in this read being slightly higher in placement is that there was a particular comment about Miner suggesting to policy lynch the slot that makes me question whether they're partners and I'm currently significantly more sure that Miner is mafia.

---------- Post automerged at 06:34 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:28 AM ----------

Eh, it's probably not something worth elaborating on from your end in that case. I will point out that Jan has been campaigning to be self-lumped and self-lump voted for a large portion of the day though and if your town read on him is based on potentially iffy mechanical reasons lumping him still helps. I'm willing to compromise on lumping Koalas if this isn't possible though. I'll ditto what someone (I think it may have been Jan himself and potentially Fonti too) said in that while lumping Kai solves his alignment if he's town I don't think him having the double vote is particularly helpful.

Would like your thoughts on my Waco scum read especially since you foresaw it coming.

 

I mentioned looking forward to your Waco read mainly because it's where you build a case from the ground up for the first time. All of your other reads basically fall in line with thread consensus. The safe and boring thing to do would've been throwing Waco in with your nullreads.

As to your case, it's not the strongest case but it feels genuine and I can see where you're coming from, so it's doing good things for your alignment even if it's not particularly convincing.

---------- Post automerged at 12:48 ---------- Previous post was at 12:45 ----------

And yes, pushing Math would be easy for scum!Waco, but I'm pretty convinced of scum!Math myself atm so Waco's got that going for him.

Also, Waco's awesome and totes my top townread.

 

Good morning!

Asking me 3 days and a night of drinking later about the two reasons for a typhon lump is unfair!
I think it was just
1. reaction check to see if someone is interested, wants to talk.
2. trying to create content out of hot air
3. thinking that in most games typhon is alive for a long while and stays a questionmark and stays in the poe for long. -> good lump.


The fonti thing was just me reading her mindset.

She rolled scum last game. She rolled scum in most of her recent games.

The way she interacted early d1 was more likely fonti being hyped about rolling town.
One of those things was giving proactive early reads (even without reasons).

I said that i needed to monitor her for a while, because it is not hard to fake it for a little while. The result is that she is still very likely town in the end.
Her game presence got a little bit weaker, but that is mostly due to the general spam and some out of game reasons that I happen to know of.
Not a top town, because it is still fonti and respect her enough to not ride or die a game with this read, but I would be suprised if she is scum.

---------- Post automerged at 12:52 ---------- Previous post was at 12:48 ----------

Oh yeah - some reality check for me.

Would Scum!Mathblade puish all game on Town!Snowvon, when everyone in this community should know that he is one of the people who will be cleared by behavior if town.
And keep that tunnel active when no one cares.

I don't know them well enough to have anything close to a good answer.

 

Jan do you like Reg so far? I like Reg so far.

 

@Jari - That's fair I guess. I thought you may have inferred that I had a scum read on him based on my reasoning / analysis in my reads on other players rather than just a "Of the players remaining players the least commented on one". Really for me the larger parts of my scum read on Waco are effectively a) His treatment of his vote / lump in regards to Math v Miner don't entirely mesh the strength of his reasoning behind the two of them and make a lot of sense coming from a scum team involving him and Miner and b) That there's a lack of actual scumhunting and gamesolving from him after his catch ups and throughout the game, Von being the only stated town read doesn't make sense given the amount of content produced in the thread.

Jan - I'd have asked you earlier about it if I could! Don't mind your explanation at all particularly the third point. Cheers for the elaboration on the Fonti read, makes a lot of sense and the point about her lack of presence lately being based around some RL stuff is something I'll keep in mind.

---------- Post automerged at 07:00 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:55 AM ----------

I'm not so convinced of Math!Scum, I'll go into it when I'm not on the phone at the same time because it'll require trawling through their ISO to try and even work out where my heads at with them (I have a very hard time remaining objective when reading Math & Titus since I find their playstyle to be very frustrating and anti-town regardless of their alignment) but there's only a few points put forward about Math that I actually agree with being scum-tells, there's a lot of push that I think is based on playstyle instead.

I hope the bolded is a poor attempt at trolling.

 

Waco's got a laidbackness going this game that actually makes me want to townread him. If his reads are really Math and Miner then he can afford to sit back and relax, the thread is going where he wants it to go. He could and maybe should give us some townreads, but he'll probably give Von/Q Typhon/Fonti/me cos that's what everyone's been doing.

---------- Post automerged at 13:06 ---------- Previous post was at 13:03 ----------

I'll concede that I wasn't 100% serious.

---------- Post automerged at 13:10 ---------- Previous post was at 13:06 ----------

"Early birthday wishes"

Early as in morning, or early as in your birthday is tomorrow? Because your birthday isn't mentioned on the homepage. I would've congratulated you otherwise.

 

I think town that's scumhunting naturally state their town reads and read progressions when they get them, they don't hold back reads & thoughts because "the thread is going in a direction they like with their scum reads" so that attitude from him fits scum much more than town. Glad to hear you weren't serious about that read at least.

And thanks, it technically starts in just under an hour.

 

Well then, happy birthday!

On topic, I wouldn't personally feel the need to say "atm I'm townreading A B and D" if their towniness had already been established quite firmly. Of course, I love myself some rainbow walls so I'd have that out there at least.

 

There's a lot of reasons I think Miner is scum but I'll focus on the few that I consider to be the stronger ones for now;

1) I find there's a significant different in both his activity in the early part of the day phase here and tonally throughout the game in comparison to last game.

2) His reasoning behind his scum read on Turtle/Typhon and the progression of that read doesn't make much sense as town but it makes a hell of a lot as scum that's painted themselves in a corner. He initially has Turtle/Typhon both as scum for their attitude in terms of the lump vote in #151 and then attempts to link them together based on a singular post of Typhon asking Turtle to sell him why he should consider lumping her. He then attempts to push on the duo by stating that Typhon is only talking about Turtle which isn't even remotely true in #388. His attempted comparison on how he has to spend multiple days pushing this world like he did with Tom doesn't make a lick of sense given that a) Tom flipped town last game and b) If he's town in his head the correct comparison would have been Cobalt. The length that his scum read on Typhon remains for fit's scum that's attempting to match a tunnely-meta more than town that's trying to actually gamesolve. Him going as far as suggesting that Typhon being town increases the likelihood of this slot being town shows there's no attempt at objectively solving this; Turtle & Tyhons alignment are entirely unrelated. Nearly none of his reasons to attack Typhon in #568 are true, him arguing that Typhons not stated any individual reads and that he's waiting for others to do the leg work for him is a stance I cannot see town actually believing reading through the thread. Him questioning his stronger town reads on the alignment of Typhon, them telling him town and him retraining his vote on the slot doesn't make much sense especially given it's alongside with him having minimal mentions of Math outside of #683.

3) His attack on Turtle in #452 where he attempts to link an action that she did with an action he was planning on doing as town and then attempts to state that it makes her mafia shows he's attempting to fabricate reasoning rather than discerning alignment.

4) There's a lot of motivation for scum that's currently suspected to be pushing themselves to be the lump vote, if they don't there's a realistic chance they get lynched D1 whereas if they get lumped they A) Take the power away from town, B) Dodge the D1 lynch via getting it and C) Force the priest to out themselves to kill an already suspected wolf. The timing and manner that Miner was pushing himself to be lumped over his scum reads fits this huge amount of scum motivation. Slightly shitty reason but I can see his "I won't be here until a few hours before the deadline" being due to him being coached to try and minimise interactions now that he's likely to be lumped/red checked.

In short I think his case and push on Typhon/Turtle pairing is him attempting to find something to tunnel to match his meta from last game rather than him actually believing it; have real difficulty seeing him actually buy his own reasoning here. Think the way he pushed to be lumped has a lot of scum motivation and find his tone this game in comparison to last game to be polar opposites.

Vote: Miner

---------- Post automerged at 08:09 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:05 AM ----------

Not expecting a list from everyone or even multiple named in an individual post but I think if you go through a town players ISO you're able to assess their stances on most players, who they think is town confidently, who they think is scum ect. outside of the three players I listed of his I couldn't tell you where he's at with most other people, that's a rather huge issue. Anyway not interested in lynching Waco today, Miner needs rope, you should read the above and join me on him. In the meantime I'll try and get through Maths posts.

 

This is a fair point. I haven't looked at Waco's posts in isolation like that.

I'm going to let Miner defend himself tonight before I do/do not switch my vote to him.

 

I'm just popping in here for a min. before work to say that I do have opinions on every single player in the game, and that I wrote a large post talking about those players.

Yeah, I didn't get to every single player, but that was because I was dead beat and I wasn't going to write more unless people specifically asked about my opinion on a certain player. Which I didn't have.

I'll discuss my push again later, but like, Reg.

I already talked about why I did pretty much everything with that push. I think it makes sense, even if nobody else does. That's usually what winds up happening with me. I don't think town has ever understood what I'm doing. Ironically, the one game where town could somewhat see where I was coming from was HP mafia where I was scum.

I also love that you point out my activity, because my activity should be the reason you lump me instead of lynching me.

I'll get back to this later. Have to run now.

 

I actually liked Maths point about Von asking for lump while stating he can self-clear as a player being questionable in #121, the consideration of Von+Typon planning to both make campaign posts comes across as the type of town-tin foil things I see from players like Titus a lot. I liked her questioning of Jan in #125 and her dislike of Typhons recent post in #127 is understandble given at the time I was in a position where I liked the logic that Typhon was presenting but not actually town reading him for it as something wasn't sitting right. I disagree with her read on Fonti in #202 being scummy, I personally have never agreed with 'buddying' being a scum tell and am also of the opinion that the overusage of the word "horrible" is more playstyle than alignment indicative here. Will agree that I think their read on Von progresses in a manner where I think they are just looking for reasons to scum read him rather than objectively assess them but again I think that's a playstyle thing and gives me nightmares of game with Titus!Town that I've seen.

The first actual post of Math's ISO that I have a real problem with is #548, the read on Q inside the post isn't something that makes sense, she starts of the post by stating a town read on Q and then later in the same posts asks how anyone can be town reading Q. Also dislike the vague stance on Fonti v Koalas in #723 but admittedly that's a weak tell. I actually really like her vote & reasoning on Fluff in #727 as opportunistic scum was my first impression of that post too. The point about Math mostly only focusing on the activity element of the case against them in #786 and #797 is indeed something I see scum do more often.

So yeah, I actually had a town read on Math for their early game posts and like their vote on Fluff, the only things I really agree with making them more likely scum is A) Their read on Q doesn't flow well at all and B) Their reaction in regards to the wagon/case against them is to pass it all off as activity based.

 

Hot damn, Reg is in the house.

 

...what are the odds we give him lump? Like, bear with me here - he's now commented on every player in the game (I think). He's shown up here, is visibly trying to get us to change things from how they were (lump and lynch). We have his opinions down and reasoning for them right here in a series of long ass posts. And like, I don't agree with everything, but at least I can follow his thoughts.

If he's town, he appears that he'll be a good, strong voice.

If he's scum, there's a fair chance we can solve the game from his spew+what we have in reads on the others so far.

I prefer to lump in Reg/Koalas, and lynch in math/miner.

I'm perfectly happy for the lynch to stay on math, because she never felt towny to me and yesterday was one long, gigantic AtE, but I equally feel that miner is scum for the 10,000 reasons I posted upthread and don't really want to throw the panda away on a read that I feel I already have right. And I agree using the lump and ensuing check on someone that is scummy is worthwhile (confirmed scum in a game like this is huge), I feel like that isn't the only consideration to keep in mind.

---------- Post automerged at 08:08 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:07 AM ----------

Ahh, him is Regfan, got ninja'd there,

---------- Post automerged at 08:09 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:08 AM ----------

Alright, I'll cast an eye over them. Give me a minute.

 

Giving me the lump is just giving me a death sentence & I've had enough of replacing into games to instantly eat the night kill; last 5 games I've replaced into as town I've died that very night but at least at MS I'd have two weeks to solve and win the game before dying, here I'll have near nothing and aren't even remotely close to having this solved.

I don't understand your willingness to lynch Math here; for me they're pretty much entirely null overall and think that a lot of the reasons presented for lynching them are based on their playstyle, I think the fact that most players that scum read the duo of them are voting Math over Miner is rather concerning given the strength of the case on Miner is much stronger.

The "With Miner getting lump we get a result via check so we get a reveal" does nothing for me since A) It means we're outing the priest to lynch a scum read that was universally agreed on anyway and scum knowing that he'll be getting lumped means they'd have prepped for it interaction wise, B) It's not implausible that scum hit the priest today with the amount of tells that have been given off and in that world we'd have to have enough role out just to out that information and in that instance we can learn the priest died tomorrow sure but not their report which means we'll have a scum read alive with the double vote power still.

All up it makes no sense to lump a strong scum read.

 

Q voted me for no reason so I did the same. Pretty happy overall with that.

Someone asked who I'd kill if I had (effectively) free reign to kill anyone. At that time it was Waco. That's a different question to who I want to lynch, since with lynch choices I'm limited to what's plausible given I'm me.

I like you, Jan and snowvon. I think I like fonti but I'm not too committed to that.

Dislike fluff, mathblade and miner.

I haven't really thought about the other guys in the game much.

Double votes are largely irrelevant outside of lategame corner cases, but ok.

 

KaiDASH - Thanks for the answers. What did you scum read Waco for at the time and why do you no longer scum read him or at least why is he now in your null pile? And the double voter has the potential to be a 4 vote swing (Changing from one wagon to another) which is rather significant. I'd like it to be with someone I'd consider as active and willing to discuss reads logically.

Typhon - I'm heading to bed in 10 minutes so if you're able to actually discuss those reads now is the best chance for me otherwise I expect I'll wake up to find 10+ new pages to wade through amid birthday celebrations with the deadline approaching during it.

 

If y'all are going to mislynch me while I haven't finished the thread at least have the considerationto use the proper pronoun they.

Back to reading.

---------- Post automerged at 06:50 ---------- Previous post was at 06:49 ----------

Oh and Regfan in case I get hammered Happy Borthday!