I wouldn't say that I've checked out from the game so much put my trust in other places. I trusted Fonti to be correct on HF, because in my experience she is generally pretty solid in either alignment. When he flipped town and she died in the night, I put that trust in HF's read+my own previous doubts on Waco, and as I said yesterDay, until I saw his flip, I wouldn't have trusted him in a f3 situation. I was hoping he would flip as Vaimes partner. For the moment I have reluctantly put my trust in a gut read to vote you, but you're making decent arguments that feel more town on the surface.

 

That's kind of another thing about your play that is bothering me, though. fonti was very sure about fluff. When fluff flips town, why are you still sheeping all of her reads rather than developing your own? It's felt like deferred responsibility, mostly. Low accountability, sheepish votes, not any actual attempt to solve it on your own accord.

From all of our points of view, we only have 1 mislynch left. If you don't really have a read on anybody, you probably should be trying to get one.

---------- Post automerged at 23:53 ---------- Previous post was at 23:39 ----------

BTW votal analysis generally means nothing to me, personally. I get reads better just through interaction. If it helps you then by all means go for it but I don't really use it.

 

Back on desktop, done with 500 Club entry for today, time to get back into the game.

Fonti was also the only one seriously pushing on Vaimes IIRC, and I doubted her all the way through his flip. So when she was wrong on HF(and she had admitted that she might be before DayEnd that Day), I put more stock in HF's read twice over; because at that point my own reads(owner=wrong, Vaimes=wrong, Fonti=wrong, Waco=maybe, Rubicon=maybe, but no one was addressing anything I pointed out by that point) had failed(and in past games I haven't been afraid to admit I build part of my wall/reads around the consensus going on in addition to what I myself feel is accurate) and because it aligned with my earlier consideration of Waco.

Maybe I just don't remember the sequence correctly, but it should have been Lynch Vaimes> Lyric dies> Lynch HF> Fonti dies> Lynch Waco. I did not think Waco was the correct choice yesterDay at DayStart but Quid's reasoning(about trying to read town/scum mindset from his posts) was enough to sway me off of him and back onto Waco, if only to get flip info and narrow the PoE and eliminate my doubts surrounding him.

And correct me if I'm wrong, but how am I sheeping Fonti's reads other than in looking at tom toDay because both she and HF said he was their next choice if HF/Waco did not flip as scum?

Yes, I put the matter of solving the Gamestate into the hands of the general livelist after striking out on owner/Vaimes/HF/Fonti and getting nothing out of Rubicon, and that was a bad decision on my part, but the time sunk into generating my read D1 on owner, then D2 Waco/Fonti, and N2 Rubicon just about sucked my interest in solving on my own down the drain. Fonti's reasoning on HF did strike the right cords to me that it only further diminished my own confidence when he flipped town afterward, and when she died that Night the lingering doubts I'd had of a her/Vaimes world going up in smoke for good made it harder to trust that a reread would tell me anything meaningful. Now with Waco I'm just over here shaking my head.

tl;dr- I went into this game thinking I could still meta-read some players from past games months or years between. I was wrong. With each account of being wrong, I just lost confidence of being correct on my own.

As for getting a read, yeah. That's what I intend to do over the next few hours w/r/t Quiddity and tom.

Well considering its one of the few avenues that I haven't looked at so far, I figured it should be worth a try by the time I'm done with everything else.

 

Ok thanks Zen I don't have any doubts about you anymore. Keep doing your thing, though.

It's between tom/quid/Rubicon fmpov in roughly that order.

 

Haven't started rereading Quid/tom yet, I was working on a post in one of the other subforums, and also waiting to see if you asked anything else about my last post or play in general etc. Since you haven't I'm going to grab some dinner and get started(and if I don't have something in here by ~4 am, with it being 1 now, the wind rattling the trees outside might be responsible).

I intend to at least give one of them a thorough effort before I get some sleep later.

 

No rush, I'm still curious what you think about the two of them but I don't have any questions about your play/alignment anymore.

 

Vote Rubicon

---------- Post automerged at 02:09 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:01 AM ----------

Sorry for being inactive today. I still haven't reread, but I think it's Rubicon.

And the reason for that is that you all seem so towny. Everyone's been doing a good amount of effort, Rubicon included. This isn't just effort in terms of game time invested, but in terms of looking around and sounding like genuinely searching for scum.

And then it becomes a question of why you're doing this. If scum is in tom/dLGN, you've gotta know you're probably going to lose. Again, scum!tom doesn't clear me, and the work that dLGN's put in today/quoted at me from earlier (sorry man) also just seems off. Plus, dLGN is just very different in terms of presence in thread (part of which is attitudinal, but even from his early watermark).

Whereas Rubicon can win from here. He hasn't ruled me out, but kept me down passively, and that's because I probably go to F3.

Positionally, Zenzao is actually there as well, in terms of effort when could absolutely win as scum. But I'm ride or die on Zenzao at this stage.

---------- Post automerged at 02:11 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:09 AM ----------

Oh and I should mention that tom backing off dLGN as he did is part of what makes me think he's cleared. (At that stage we have Zenzao locked in, me inactive, and Rubicon as the counter lynch.)

---------- Post automerged at 02:13 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:11 AM ----------

Actually, Zenzao dies tonight. So tom could be backing off me because I've had him hard-cleared for a while and he thinks I could be easier to flip in f3. Gah.

Okay Rubicon/tom.

---------- Post automerged at 02:15 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:13 AM ----------
dLGN do you think I should be reconsidering Zenzao? Your read on him sounds shakier than your Rubicon read.

 

Could you explain what you mean about Tom clearing you?

 

I don't like this.

---------- Post automerged at 02:19 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:18 AM ----------

tom took me off the table as a lynch yesterday. I don't think scum!tom does that.

Like, now that Miner and Waco are gone, I'm harder to lynch. But before that happened, it would have been easy for tom to swing a lynch toward me.

---------- Post automerged at 02:21 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:19 AM ----------

Also sorry if some of my stuff is out of whack, I skimmed to get preliminary thoughts out and now I'm reading more detailed.

 

Hello friends.

 

This doesn't seem right. If this is the case, why am I not your primary suspect now? I mean, I get you haven't really committed to one.

 

1587 is a good post.
I kinda want to just sheep it.

---------- Post automerged at 23:31 ---------- Previous post was at 23:30 ----------

Like, I even like the part about me pocketing him for final 3.
I would totally do that.

 

Hello tom.

If it's between me and Rubicon (i.e. dLGN is lynched, Zenzao flips), who do you vote?

---------- Post automerged at 02:36 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:32 AM ----------

Well dLGN is assuaged on Zenzao. Which actually makes me feel worse about everyone, because I didn't like that post, and now the paranoia on each of them (Zenzao poor reasoning, dLGN backing off easily from legitimate points without adequate explanation) is spiking.

@obs:

Spoiler

Remember how I always say I'm way better at scum than town? The bag of paranoia and neuroses and self-centred meta reads is why that's very much not arrogance about my decent-but-not-stellar scum!game.

 

And I think you're scummy*.

(p.s. this is a jab at you for not saying what you don't like. Care to elaborate?)

You're on the backburner pending reread. Did you miss my back-and-forth with dLGN recently where I explain why such is the case?

---------- Post automerged at 02:41 ---------- Previous post was at 02:40 ----------

ninja'd: You did not miss it, and apparently did not like it(yet still do not go into any exacting whys other than one section of a larger post).

 

Hi I'm not lynching you.

 

Zenzao sorry, I thought it was self-manifest.

You give me a pass today till f3, which is tomorrow. At the same time you put scum in tom/dLGN but aren't paying attention to tom. Which is just dLGN by default, and pushes us into f3 without anything.

---------- Post automerged at 02:54 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:52 AM ----------

 

Correction, dear fellow- I was going to give you a pass toDay, because I was not looking forward to more rereading than was necessary and I doubted I'd come up with anything meaningful after prior failures so far. Even when I made that post my intent was to reread dLGN and tom to assess them as Vaimes' partner, and now I'm in the process of rereading you before I get to tom since dLGN has made town-ish feeling posts in his back and forth with tom a page back that has me feeling better about him.

Also, Rubicon

 

Quid -
Literally had no plans to win if scum. Every kill until Miner was terrible for him. The way he treated Vaimes was terrible for him.
Yes he's the one that pointed these things out. But they're just... true.
ScumQuid's overarching strategy would have been "kill people that townread me and help my partner get lynched without actually looking good for it then kill more people that townread me"
That's... not a thing. That didn't happen. Quid is town.
Add in the recent insight on me. And the case on Rubicon I'm about to plagiarize just a little...

Zenzao -
What the fuck is Zenzao doing?

Ok not really but I don't exactly know how to put my Zenzao read in a paragraph.

DLGN -
Ok I like a lot about DLGN's posting. I've talked about it at length at various times. I don't need to do it again.
It's townie.
But he never had to seriously interact with Vaimes. Like, did he even give a read on him?
Cobalt was utterly useless, but OoG whatever blah. And the slot had no part of anything when the important shit went down.
Need to go back look at where they overlapped. End of day 2 I guess.
I also know when he voted me yesterday it was right after I became sure Waco was the lynch no matter what anyone said. Like, I'm reading along and thinking "oh this day is over now" and then bam. It felt weasly. Like he was setting up for the next day already. (I'm super bad at describing gameflow reads)

Rubicon pushed Vaimes early and often. And that's still a bad move in mountainous.
But here he is. Alive. Saying it's solvable, but fading when Quid/DLGN are ramping up.
There's a pattern that bugged me in his earlier posts about thinking more about how likely people are to be lynched than how likely they are to be scum. But we've kind of... all started doing that as this game has gone on.
He's also kept his options open. Even had a pretty solid townread on me at some point and then it just openly disappeared.
And I still sing that fucking Kaiser Chiefs in my head when I reread sometimes.
That last one might not be relevant.

 

Is this supposed to be intimidating?

Like, seriously not sure how to read it.

---------- Post automerged at 03:29 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:25 AM ----------

Why did you ask this, Rubicon?

---------- Post automerged at 03:34 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:29 AM ----------

Rubicon's attitude to Waco is a point in his favor yesterday. Especially as he was up for lynch.

---------- Post automerged at 03:36 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:34 AM ----------
dLGN talk to me about tom. I don't want to conf!bias my way here, as I did with Waco.

---------- Post automerged at 03:37 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:36 AM ----------

This is especially relevant as him and I are almost certainly in f3.

 

Yes, Quid, I was without a doubt intending to intimidate you into town-siding me completely. I'm saying you're misattributing it at this point because I have since progressed from the point that POV was written at, yet you're acting as though it is still the exact same case instead of following the progression afterwards with dLGN.

Despite that up until the search function decided to commit seppuku on page 2 of your posts a minute ago, somewhere around the 440s in-thread, I'm actually leaning town on you more than scum now that I know owner was town and I'm following your progression on her.