No more posting!

---------- Post automerged at 09:03 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:00 PM ----------

Welcome to the End of Day One Auction

The winning prices for each bid are below, items will be handed out to the winners shortly;

Doctor x 2 - $501
Gravedigger x 2 - $51
Hitman x 2 - $?
Neighbourizer x 1 - $200

Just to be clear when an item is being hidden it'll have a ? replacing the price.

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End of Day Lynch Vote Count

Tom (7): Jarizok, Newcomb, Typhon, His Fluffiness, Rubicon, Jan, Vira
His Fluffiness (2): Miner, Tom
Jarizok (1): Fontisian
Rubicon (1): The Waco Kid
Fontisian (1): Koalas

Not Voting (1): Cobalt

Player Currently to be Lynched at Deadline: Tom

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End of Day Elect Vote Count

Jan (8): Jan, Vira, Miner, Newcomb, Koalas, Typhon, Jarizok, His Fluffiness
The Waco Kid (3): The Waco Kid, Rubicon, Tom
Fontisian (1): Fontisian

Not Voting (1): Cobalt

Player Currently to be Elected at Deadline: Jan

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***DISCLAIMER: THERE ARE NO CLUES IN MOD SCENES, ONLY FLAVOR TO MAKE THE GAME AMUSING***

The first day was drawing to a close and not much had been gained, people had thought the best way to determine who the killers of Eidolonic were was to first off find out who they weren't and narrow the suspect pool down. This involved them asking each player "Was it you, did you kill him" in which everyone had responded with "No, it wasn't me, was it you"" so far. People were growing impatient but finally Tom pipped up, "It was my idea, I really couldn't stand how he was always around here like a bad smell and I decided to get some friends to help me out with it". "Why are you telling us this" someone yelled out from the back "I was planning on...." started Tom before he was obliterated with a gavel from behind. Maybe they should have asked him who his friends were but this wasn't the smartest group of Auctioneers and they really just wanted to find out if they'd won a prize at the Auction instead.

Tom was lynched, he was a Vanilla Mafia.

Oh and you have elected Jan as the Marketplace Owner.

It is now Night One which will end in ~24 hours.
Night actions are due 1 hour before deadline.

---------- Post automerged at 09:12 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:03 PM ----------

Auction abilities have now been handed out. PM me if you have any questions.

 

-filler-

Also tilted.

 

***DISCLAIMER: THERE ARE NO CLUES IN MOD SCENES, ONLY FLAVOR TO MAKE THE GAME AMUSING***

The first auction had finally ended and everyone split up into their own rooms to admire their winnings and discuss how they wished to handle catching the remaining killers the following day. Sir Newcomb had wondered into the wrong room, "Kill him first and then go have tea and biscuits" he heard an anonymous voice say. Brave Sir Newcomb tried to run away "No!" "I didn't!" you heard him proclaim but when danger reared it's ugly head, he bravely turned his tail and fled "I never!" he screeched, that was the last we heard of Sir Newcomb.

Newcomb, the Vanilla Townie died attempting to flee during night one.


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The Day Two Auction abilities rolled to be up for auction today include:

Auction Detective x 1
Auction Detective x 2
Cop x 1
Doctor x 1

Please submit your bids inside your QT in bold. Mid day auction update will be posted in ~48 Hours and winners of the auction will be notified upon day end, please remember bidding is no longer allowed within the last 10 minutes of the day phase.

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Lynch Vote Count 2.0

Not Voting (11): Cobalt, Fontisian, His Fluffiness, Jan, Jarizok, Koalas, Miner, Rubicon, The Waco Kid, Typhon, Vira

Day ends in ~96 hours of this post when that countdown link expires.


Day Two has now started, you may now post!

 

Ooooh. Good items. Ok!

Got some spicy Koalas only info.

After the mid day auction went up I threw 499 on Hitmen just to be safe. Needless to say tom didn't bid on it. Surprisingly his team members didn't either. Meaning with the two scum we have left one has 299 and the other 600-800. Assuming they're saving 501 for the daykill this means 300 is now the safe town bid for items and roles that hitmen interfere with can fire with impunity.

 

Well, that's unfortunate, albeit pretty much always inevitable. Thanks for the carry wrt tom Newcomb, that's not a read I could ever make.

---------- Post automerged at 09:03 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:01 PM ----------

Anybody interested in the game solving I did in the night? I've gone at this fairly obsessively since the flip, fairly sure I've got it (at the very least, I have one scum).

 

Haha, I bid $499 on Hitman x2 too.

 

Go for it Typhon. Looking over tom I've been leaning Jari/Rubicon.

 

It's exceedingly unlikely that tom wasn't the one who bid 501 on doctorx2 (meaning mafia can almost certainly outbid us twice still), but that's excellent work if you're town nonetheless.

 

Tom's flip points strongly to Cobalt.

Uh huh.

 

Oh, you're going to eat part of this up then.

The scum I think I caught first. Just fixing the formatting now.

 

Quietly fixing my table...

 

The shade begins.

 

Big hunks of this are spoilered; I heartily encourage you to read it all.

But yeah, I'm pretty sure I've solved the game. (I guess more accurately Newcomb with some splashes of Jan were blended together into some unholy abomination to solve the game, and I just so happened to be the one to stumble on it, but nevermind that).

Yeah, sure, I get that I've said that before (SVM), and I have been been wrong (SVM), but I've got a good feeling here. That's why I'm pretty sure (as in I won't try and strongarm you if you disagree although you really shouldn't disagree). At the very least, though, I'm nigh positive I've caught one - Rubicon.

Let's go through it.

Setting the scene:

Spoiler

Newcomb talked in 444 about how Jarizok and Rubicon essentially opened the game with some partnery interactions. I agreed with that on the first look (I think I even said as much ITT). But I gave everyone a quick reread whenever I when I was making my wall, then did a little votal analysis after we got the tom flip, then went back to the game again because I'm a fucking addict, and I have a different view on that that I think is more tailored to who they actually are as players and less general mafia theory:

1. Jarizok does that sort of shit all of the time - it's not just this time with Rubicon. It's one of those things I meant in that post I responded to him with where he has these aggressively scummy things baked into his play and it makes me constantly uneasy with him even if I might otherwise want to townread him. I can cite examples of this for you guys if you're interested, but I think if you consider it for a moment you can come up with your own. I can easily see this coming from both aligned and unaligned Jarizok.

Tiny note to Jarizok:

Spoiler

This is not discounting you actually casing tom like we asked you to, that's instrumental in my VA because with that and in combination with some other things I can grant you a sort of probabilistic clear, if that makes sense? Not hard and fast, but it's workable and allows for this read.

2. Rubicon is different. Rubicon has a more structured, typical approach to the game - it's been a while since we've played together, but I can see that in how we could actually talk to one another and be understood, if that makes sense.

So okay, then, maybe the interactions become meaningless, or maybe they just become something that means more for Rubicon than Jarizok. I don't think they're meaningless, because I agree they read as something that should never happen between conventional players with any interest in solving the game. So let me finish the setup with another Newcomb point, and then we can get into it.

Read 574 up to the automerge. With me again? I think that's vital, because it sort of vocalizes a niggling thought that I had been having - that is, that Rubicon's play had a very careful, noncontroversial character to it that seemed to supersede any sort of actual solving character. It also gives us a different insight into the interactions of 444. They are not uncharacteristic of Jarizok; they are uncharacteristic of more typical structured/serious town. They could be partner interactions, but I don't really think Jarizok is scum here (Jarizok/Rubicon/tom is pretty unlikely). So, then, we have to consider what remains - that is, this is just an example of Rubicon's noncontroversial, careful, exceedingly reasonable play.

I hope you actually read that bit, but the point is that I claim Rubicon's play has been characterized by noncontroversial, reasonable, careful play - in a way exceedingly unlikely to come from town. Here are some pieces of evidence to that point:

1. The "partner interactions":
Jarizok just floated by as is his wont, prodded Rubicon, they punched each other in the face, and then he floated on. Rubicon, for his part, responded with pressure when he received it, but just sort of shrugged and dropped it when Jarizok didn't stick around. He claimed to have a gut scumread on Jarizok later when prompted, but certainly didn't pursue it.

2. Me v. Rubicon in the TWTBAW thing (this set of interactions honestly points at multiple things, but staying focused here. See the incidental interactions if you're curious):
Look at how Rubicon responds to me in these interactions

Spoiler

And have a bonus from later in the game, but still talking about the same thing:

Right then. Look at how he approaches me. There's a little bit of a light and breezy "we're all friends here and this isn't a serious thing" thing in 82 (the second quote), but for the most part there's a distinct tone of "Look, you're seeing things. Or maybe we just use different definitions. What I'm doing isn't the same as TWTBAW, can't you see that? Our heads are in the same place!" mixed with hints of



And that's it. When I stop pushing, he stops talking about it, just like with Jarizok. It's become a pattern. Rubicon is only pushing back as much as he has to to make the problem go away when the problem is one that might drag him into the spotlight, and even then he's not pushing aggressively.

In the bonus from later, it's more of the same - a sort of "look, I'm reasonable and believe you are too. You wanted to drop this, and now I see where you're coming from, so let's just move on. You were wrong, but I can totally see why you were." Again, that'd be fine if I didn't get that vibe from all of his posts, but in context it looks bad.

One more, just to really cement this as a thing.
3. Newcomb and Rubicon

Spoiler

Newcomb mentioned this ITT, obviously, but this is another illustrative exchange. Rubicon makes a very cautious wording poke, Newcomb answers it naturally, and Rubicon sort of slinks away again. There's no way to push on that line any further. Newcomb turns it around on him, and he responds, but without venturing anything that could possibly be controversial at all. When Newcomb backs off, Rubicon drops it.

These are the best examples I could remember off the top of my head from the game/skimming through Rubicon's iso, but I contend this character is a part of every post he's made. An experienced town player does not play this way, imo, full stop.

If you're curious, there's some incidental stuff that pointed me in this direction spoilered here, but that's sort of the main thrust of my argument.

Spoiler

-If you'll look at the last quote in the me v. Rubicon, you can see some elements of "right for the wrong reasons" frustration leaking into Rubicon's post. I believe that he believes that what he's saying isn't the same as TWTBAW, but I also think he'd have pushed back against me more if it was genuine town frustration. That he was clearly frustrated but kept up the careful, reasonable persona seems to point at scum who has been caught, but for something they see as being invalid.

-On a VA sort of note, Rubicon is in an awful spot on tom's wagon. I think it is exceedingly unlikely that there were no scum on there, and between the fact that I didn't think Jarizok was particularly scum anyway+the fact that scum are unlikely to lead a wagon on their partner in a 13 player game I don't think Jari is the scum. So that just leaves Fluff at 4, Rubicon at 5, and Vira at 7. It could be either Fluff or Vira from a purely VA perspective, but I think Rubicon is playing closer to his scum game than either of them are to what I'd expect of their scum game - especially Vira, who is kinda spewed clear straight up I think? There's more detail to this, but I'm not spamming my full thought process on everyone unless someone actually care, so this is the sort of the fast (heh) version.

-I think the tom post where he quotes Vira voting me, says it's jarring in a way that seem(s/ed) to me to be indicative of something negative at the time, then decides it was pleasantly jarring and votes me after I've zeroed in on Rubicon for TWTBAW seems like exactly the sort of thing tom would have done in this game to defend a partner? He was open to either sheep Vira or bury her, and decided to sheep her to try and chainsaw me off of his partner.

On the same note, him bringing the TWTBAW thing back up and slapping me in the face with it to try and make the point that I did nothing with it as a sort of absurdity defense/unconsciously making me recoil from it by dragging me over it in a time it seemed to have come to naught is kinda exactly how I'd expect tom to handle something that a player sort of seemingly stumbled into a good read on his partner by accident?

-Look at how Rubicon starts townreading Vira and slowly transitions to townreading me and scumreading Vira after she fades from relevance and I stay kinda in everyone's face in the thread. This sort of ties back into my main argument, but I don't really know how to articulate it as one of my three examples so it can go here. It's easier that way. I overlook people who don't really interact with me and agree-ish with me when they do. It's a hole in my game, honestly.

In conclusion,

Lynch Vote: Rubicon

 

Why?

Also.

Vote: Rubicon.

---------- Post automerged at 09:14 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:10 PM ----------

I'm glad I'm not the only one who noticed Rubicon's last minute "I don't want vote my teammate, but I have to" vote.

 

While you're letting that sink in, I'm going to automerge in a second bit so this can just be Typhon's fuckoff big solve post and we don't have to keep up with multiples.

Rubicon's partner, in order of likelihood (discounting Cobalt and fonti, who I think are /probably/ town from gamestate and Rubicon's shade right there, but who absolutely get slotted in the mix if they don't show up in a towny fucking way), is Waco>>>>Koalas>Miner>Fluff.

Dollars to donuts it's just Waco unless something interesting happens, though.

 

Put better then I could have.

Vote: Rubicon

1-10 how comfortable are you with this Jarizok probabilistic clear?

 

Oh, rip, defeated by a ninja.

 

In which Tom tries to distance and Cobalt over-does things a bit.

In which Cobalt disappears and Tom starts backing away from the scumread.

In which he attempts to buddy me, while suggesting Cobalt might be town.

In which he says Cobalt is scummy and also town at the same time.

This post is entirely about the mention of Cobalt. The Typhon part makes sense, but nothing in his ISO suggests his "heart really wanted" a Cobalt lynch.

In which Cobalt is suddenly his #1 scumread.

But we really shouldn't lynch him yet.

Etc.

---------- Post automerged at 07:17 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:16 PM ----------

vote: Cobalt

Typhon, I'll read your case in a bit, still pulling together some thoughts from overnight.

 

I know the feeling haha.

 

Typhon, I can agree with your Rubicon case, but I disagree that you can treat fonti or cobalt as probable town here. Mind explaining that one to me?