7-8 range?

I mean, work through my reasoning if you think something seems skeevy and let me know, but I don't think Jarizok plays like he did D1 if he's scum, and his positioning on some wagons is preeettttyyyy towny. I have a couple more QT posts I'll toss you guys' way whenever everyone has had time to digest my big Rubicon post that give some broader thoughts on him and pretty much everyone not inactive, but I feel pretty good about it.

 

Hey. Sorry for disappear, but spent most of Tuesday in & out bed & nauseous with a stomach virus. I'll try to be back up to speed by the middle of the Day

 

You're reasoning stands on first read. I'm coming from a more tom interaction angle, there was just a significant level of back and forth there that was actually consistent and built on itself. Just seems like an odd choice for a townie tom would spend his focus on.

 

Mmm. I don't mean probable in the way that means I'm comfortable with them, just slightly >rand town.

It's a vote analysis + the way tom and now Rubicon have approached Cobalt for him. fontisian... I have this sort of soul read on her that she'd have bailed before just straight up missing a 96 hour D1 and letting her scum team down? And like tom/fonti/Rubicon is a good scum team - she might have some cause to stick in if she thought it was sort of a "shrug, I'm the best chance we have to win anyway, let's see how it shakes out" team, but she'd have definitely been a burden to this group by straight up disappearing.

Those (and the fonti read especially) are absolutely not reads that are something that I'd set in stone. If they come into the thread scummy, and Waco or even Rubicon is convincingly not scum, I'm not saying to ignore them.

---------- Post automerged at 09:29 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:28 PM ----------

Sorry to hear you've been down, man. Feel better!

---------- Post automerged at 09:31 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:29 PM ----------

Actually, we're all big boys and girls, there's no real reason for me to ration my thoughts out.

Let me format some more stuff up for you guys.

 

some thoughts on Waco:

There's a clear mindset progression throughout his posts and his reasoning is pretty transparent. One thing I like in particular:

This points to town-Waco in that the question was kind of crappy, but he responded by explaining his thought process chronologically, which is harder for scum to fake. (especially in response to a partner?)

This is another (weaker) example of the same thing.

 

I think I'm gonna go digging through Newcomb's posts to see if he cased anyone else bc him being the nk over jan means he was likely more correct in his reads.

That, or fontis scum.

 

Why did you kill my apprentice!

It took ages to get him to learn calculus.

I mean .. it was always one of us and If I die he was always the safest person to give it to.


Onl 2/4 picks got in. kind of sad bulletproof and watcher did not make it.

Will talk about what to go for next later.


Newcomb was way more commited to his reads and had tom dead to rights in a game where losing a scum d1 can be fatal (because you lose a lot of money).

I was waffling all over the place at EoD, had too many towns some of them for bad reasons and all that.
Will revisit that later, but I still think my core team of Jari/Typhon is just town.

Miner - Why do you think scumtisian would kill Newcomb > me? I was coming for her left right and center Eod1.
Koalas Can you give me the extact moment you were bidding for the item they call 2x Hitman?
Because I was sure I was dying and with no one going for it half way through d1 I put 499 down as well .. pretty quick I might want to add.
Just you know - checking out your story.

The good thing is we can always hold Koalas accountable for that bid anyways, which means unless Hitman comes up again this doc and every saving role afterwards should go through!

I have glanced over the early cases, but need to reread them later when it is not 5 am.
No judgement just now.

Oh yeah about the Jarizok alignment question.
Check exactly when he started talking about tom being possible scum. Was it before or after mentioned his scumread on tom the first time?
If it was before then Jari is almost always lock town for that (because you don't want to harbus d1 in this setup, that is just mental).
I think he is town anyway, but maybe that is why I am alive and Newcomb is not.

---------- Post automerged at 05:33 ---------- Previous post was at 05:23 ----------

Sorry for being suspicios Mr Koalas, but you can't be too careful these days.

You were part of the PoE going into EoD1 and only survived because the case on a(nother) scum was stronger.
This claim might give you room to breath, if you are scum and the only way you would lose if money got tracked back to you or a doc save is not going through.

And If you are town, then your story will hold up anyway. You can never be cautious enough these days.

 

D1 Lynch Vote Final

Tom (7): Jarizok, Newcomb, Typhon, His Fluffiness, Rubicon, Jan, Vira
His Fluffiness (2): Miner, Tom
Jarizok (1): Fontisian
Rubicon (1): The Waco Kid
Fontisian (1): Koalas

Not Voting (1): Cobalt

~~~~~~

D1 Elect Vote Final

Jan (8): Jan, Vira, Miner, Newcomb, Koalas, Typhon, Jarizok, His Fluffiness
The Waco Kid (3): The Waco Kid, Rubicon, Tom
Fontisian (1): Fontisian

Not Voting (1): Cobalt

~~~~~

Right then. Here's the wall, right? Lets talk about relevant things and people, alphabetically because I roll like that. (Not talking Cobalt or fonti here because there's nothing to talk about besides what I just said here.)

Fluff - Lol!Fluff. This is the read of mine that I'm the least sure of having substance, but. Look at his last two games here, those being the most recent TH and SVM. Look at his interactions and input. Look at the way he interacted with his partners especially in SVM. Now, look at how he lol!voted tom. Do you believe that comes from the same person? I kinda don't. This is a pretty gutty read. Actually, maybe reverse or equate Miner and Fluff in my order from before (s.t. I think it's Waco>>>Koalas>[Fluff>Miner or Fluff=Miner].

But SVM Fluff had some nuance. He felt purposeful. This Fluff literally didn't vote anyone till he snapvoted Jan overe something Jan had already called himself out on, and didn't move till he lol!voted tom. I don't think they're the same.

Jarizok - This can almost be C/P'd from my readwall yesterday. Going to spoiler that here and then add a bit.

Spoiler

Alright, back with me?

So yeah, I had him on the LT side of null before the flip. Here's where my head is - post-flip, I honestly don't believe Jarizok led the lynch on tom. Sure Newcomb let the scum know in advance he was coming, but I don't feel like the scum team was like "okay Jari, we don't know what the fuck this read will be, exactly, but go out there and bus. But don't be awkward or we're going to be obviously tied together and also don't push the lynch through because there's a lot of interest in Newcomb's case, but not much preemptive support for lynching tom". That's just... not something I honestly think happened. Between where I was yesterday and rereading his tom case/the flip, I think he's town. Slightly less than I think Vira is town, but more than everyone else that isn't named Jan or Typhon.

Koalas -he is still someone I'm not at all sold on. Waco hops him, but that's a function of Waco decreasing in my estimation, not Koalas increasing. My fast and loose read on him currently from the QT is something like this:

-Koalas pinged me hard earlier, but I'm not sure what to do with him to be perfectly honest. Like. I'm having a hard time deciding if he'd actually just park his vote on me for paranoia and tone and not investigate further as town or not. My gut says no, but for more on Typhon's gut see SVM -_-. I think that's about all there is to say about him. His votal is ~useless, because he wasted the day on me and voted fontisian at then end. There's obvious scum motivation in that, but at the same time he did it when Jan was losing his shit that the rest of us weren't voting fontisian, so... ugh. A non-Waco possibility. An order of business for D2 for me is to read his interactions with tom/Rubicon. More likely to be scum than Miner, I think.

Which is a great segue, because it is now time for Miner.

Miner - Miner is still ehh as well, but less than Koalas. He never came under pressure, and never really made me feel things D1. His eagerness to vote Fluff/start a wagon on him for shitty Fluff things probably doesn't come from scum (that's an easy late game mislynch), but that's reaching a bit. Idk that Miner would approach things like that,

I don't like how he pulled a Waco and parked his vote on one person that was never happening for most of the day. It's also one of my orders of business for today to see how the interactions between him and tom/Rubicon read. OTOH, it would be pretty fucking on the nose if he gimmicked in a game he rolled scum with tom, but, again, idk if he'd consider the game that way? This is a non-Waco possibility. He was a Jan elect early adopter, though, which is in his favor?

Vira - She's only lime and on this list because I don't think /she's/ been particularly towny, but I think her situation is towny as fuck.

She's pretty much spewed clear by tom straight up (if it was anyone besides tom she would be spewed clear straight up, but I think he's the person in the game most likely to defend a partner this way). If Rubicon is scum, she is town, full stop (see the incidental section of my Rubicon wall for details on that, but it's his treatment of her).

Her treatment of me doesn't come from scum, I think? Like, that was awkward as hell. I don't honestly believe she tries to warp my arguments on things, posts that, realizes how it sounds, wanders off, and then comes back to retract her scum read on me later and then straight up sheeps onto her partner unnecessarily to end the day. She was the first non-Jan person who voted to elect Jan, which feels pretty good at this point. I'm pretty okay with writing her off unless something changes.

Waco - This read is based on two main things - fucking awful positioning (conf!scum and likely scum voting him for Marketplace Owner? check. parking his vote on likely scum from the opening of D1 over something he never even worked to articulate or particularly pursued? distancing check), and something Newcomb made me realize, which was that I was townreading him for a stupid reason (we had similar reads).

Him being sick makes this less of a slam dunk, because him not being around at EOD when the tom stuff was going down was another significant mark against him, but I don't think it changes the fact that he's the most like third scum. I'd honestly consider lynching him for that final VC alone.

---------- Post automerged at 10:40 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:35 PM ----------

I think that's the full meat of my N1 thoughts/where I'm at on everything. Ask if there are details you don't understand or that seem left out (probably just neglected to express them, I've been looking at this for a while), let me know if you have quibbles so we can talk it over, but yeah.

 

On Vira (because Typhon mentioned her just now):

I think Vira is unaligned with
Rubicon
Jarizok
Fontisian
Cobalt

Jarizok being the weakest of the 3, but I personally think he is town anyway.

I will read up on her interactions with Waco and Miner as well, but just because of that she is fairly likely cleared for "there is no partner for her".

I have a weird reason to think Cobalt is maybe town, but I won't talk about for a while, because that guy promissed to reign down hell in this joint.
And I am freezing.

---------- Post automerged at 05:48 ---------- Previous post was at 05:41 ----------

It looked like Waco might get the ownership for a while.

We might want to check how that evolved and what the real roder of vote was and not just what the endresult is.

Just something minor, but still something to look at in regards to him.

I had the worst thought, that was that waco going hard for the neighbor stuff early on makes him slightly more town, because it is basically "wasted" money. Utility and fun yes, but not on of the main scum roles they want.
And with the bid being only 200 at day end .. town!waco has that bid. There is no way he would not have gone 201 after going hard on it.

He did not go for the doc after saying that early on. No way he used his money on that.

I don't mind using a potential neighbor with this because Waco is in the PoE at the moment and if someone else got the 1xNeighbor Waco might be outted scum. (This is not 100% ... but considering the way he talked about it - ? come on!)

 

Yo, Jan, you reading my walls or nah?

Like, I mean that not in a salty wtf sort of way, but you're sorta rehashing some of my points, and if you feel the same way we should talk about it and do town circle consensus finding things instead of talking past each other.

 

When did I repeat you?

Like sure maybe part of your very first post which I said I only had a short look at for now and will come back to later when I have spare time. (or feel like I have enough time, whatever the difference is).

Your other wall and my last post have very little in common they only talk about the same people for different reaosns, no?

---------- Post automerged at 06:01 ---------- Previous post was at 05:59 ----------

I read a lot of your initial rubi stuff and stopped when you got to waco .. read your waco stuff in the end here and it did not talk about the stuff I talked about.

---------- Post automerged at 06:02 ---------- Previous post was at 06:01 ----------

We can talk to each other, but not now.

I feel dead inside and expected to just be dead in the game.

Now I'm not. Work Work Work ...

 

I actually apologize, I misread your Waco post. I thought you were saying that we should look into the people that voted for Waco for marketplace owner, and I kinda skimmed the bottom half because I thought it was sort of a tangential point to your main point of that.

Rereading your post, I should have paid more attention the first time. The bottom half appears to be the point you feel more strongly about. That's not an argument that does it for me personally, but if you want to talk about how the elect votes came in on Waco and how they ended up (who they ended up), I'm game.

 

Typhon, I'm working on the world's most reasonable reply to your case. Prepare to be triggered.

In the meanwhile:

I haven't played much with Jarizok, so this would be helpful.

 

Yeah, I'll dig some up - I don't actually have specifics in mind, it's more of how I perceive him. Pretty much certain I can find some, however. Not tonight, though, I'm probably going to bed pretty soon. Tomorrow sometime!

 

This is +town.

Vira/Koalas worlds: This conversation never happens.

Vira-scum/Koalas-town worlds: Is there any reason for this post to happen? Doesn't seem like it.

---------- Post automerged at 10:11 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:06 PM ----------

Jan, what should I think of this?

Or all your Tom interactions. For all your interaction with him -- quite a lot -- there is zero meat. Were you trying to sort him?

 

omfg I spent fucking $200 to neighborize Newcomb and he fucking DIED

 

I'll still respond, but can you go read Mountainous Mafia when you have time? This case of yours is very similar to the ones made against me then as far as I can tell.

---------- Post automerged at 10:14 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:13 PM ----------

I mean obviously.

What did you do that for?

 

I'm scum and I wanted to pocket him.

---------- Post automerged at 01:15 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:14 AM ----------

jk I was gonna plug my thoughts into the QT while I did my re-read so he could see my thought process and I could make good on my promise :/

 

I know this is meant to make you sound town but it really doesn't.

Well, look on the bright side. Now you can plug your thoughts into the game thread and convince the whole town.

---------- Post automerged at 10:24 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:17 PM ----------

Did you explain the Tom part of this somewhere?

I have the complete opposite read of Tom-Cobalt interactions.

 

the fact that I can't even keep my stock is lol