So first off this is reasoned behind the assumption that Rubicon is scum yet to be flipped.

tom was scum. Rubicon is scum. You can see tom start neutral towards Rubicon, while defending him, then gradually moves him up the town ladder. When pressure builds on tom towards the lynch he never talks about Rubicon again until the potential alternative lynch list where he places Rubicon under Jarizok under me.

From this we can see that tom has no compunctions about going against popular opinion in a town read or townreading his scumbuddies.

So we get to the tom and Jarizok interactions. One of the initial things that stuck out was tom's entry. As scum everything is calculated so why choose to enter the thread on a joke post that had already been, fairly extensively, discussed? It just reads oddly outside of establishing early interaction.

You also have things like the tail end of 326 where tom is defending Jarizok for a bad post which is honestly kind of big. tom townread several people that weren't universally but players he actually went out of his way to defend? That's a short list.

Then we get to the end of day with the imminent tom lynch. Their interaction changes starting at 640 onto days end. Now some people obviously disagree with me but that entire thing reads like Distancing 101 to me.

Finally we have, as Newcomb pointed out in 444, Rubicon and Jarizok's interactions. Weird interaction that they both walked away from and is most likely w/w. Which just ties this all together in one neat scum bow from tom to Rubicon to Jarizok.

 

Why are you scumreading him?

 

Always a risk, but I don't think I am doing that with Jari.

Mafia tend to be hyperaware of their partners. They might not want to be but it's like trying not to think of an elephant. When see your partner make a great post, what do you think? Fuck yeah, we're winning this shit. You sit back and hope town eats it up.

What Tom did is to try to make himself look good at Jari's expense. That makes Jari town.

But it's not even the most important part of that post imo. I actually think what Jari said about Tom townreading you for cred is more interesting.

---------- Post automerged at 07:22 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:24 PM ----------

Here is a quick analysis of Tom's interactions in the first 500 posts of the game, by the numbers:

Code:

(18) Rubicon        ++++++++++++++++++
(18) Typhon         ++++++++++++++++++
(17) Jan            +++++++++++++++++
(17) Vira           +++++++++++++++++
(15) Jarizok        +++++++++++++++
(10) Koalas         ++++++++++
(9) Newcomb         +++++++++
(9) Miner           +++++++++
(6) Cobalt          ++++++
(5) Waco            +++++
(5) His Fluffiness  +++++
(3) Fontisian       +++

 

Tammy replaces Fontisian effective immediately!

Once her account gets activated, that is.

 

You bring some good replacements.

---------- Post automerged at 08:04 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:36 PM ----------

Koalas, I would have felt better if you just said "nvm I guess it's mainly Rubicon-Jarizok interactions." That post is a massive reach, probably because you want to seem consistent or something.

Tom's opening was a series of replies in 3 minutes:

- one elect-voting Jarizok as a joke, which he moved away from
- one joking with Waco about neighborizer
- one saying that Vira's post is jarring -- before then calling it "pleasantly jarring."

These could all be an attempt at early interaction, or they could be just Tom trying to look like he's breezy and joking around.

This looks like you starting with the conclusion you want to reach (Tom spewing Jarizok mafia) and looking for posts to fit that conclusion while ignoring counterevidence.

This interaction leads directly into Jarizok calling Tom out in a major way. How do you miss something like that?

IIRC town-Koalas has a habit of looking for mafia white-knighting town, so this sets off some alarm bells for me. Maybe it's because I have high expectations for your scumhunting abilities, but this is a really shit argument.

How?

Let's bring this into the light with quotes:

Spoiler

This led into Jarizok making the following case on Tom:

https://forums.darklordpotter.net/showpost.php?p=979043&postcount=670

I see him calling Tom mafia and Tom flailing a lot. What do you see?

 

A scumteam that knew they were boned when Necomb announced spicy tom reads then had a full day to discuss how best to throw him under the bus?

 

Lynch Vote Count 2.4

Rubicon (3): Typhon, Vira, Koalas
Nachomamma8 (2): Jarizok, His Fluffiness
Cobalt (2): Nachomamma8, Rubicon
Koalas (1): Miner

Not Voting (3): Cobalt, Tammy, Jan

Player Currently to be Lynched at Deadline: Rubicon

Day ends in ~22 hours of this post when that countdown link expires.

Please remember bids are not accepted in the last 10 minutes of the day.

 

Either Tom was hard-defending both his partners, or he knew he was going to die and his partners were bussing him. Pick one.

 

Yay Tammy!

 

Hmm. It's almost like one was happening, he was outed, then the other happened. But hey don't let me srand in the way of your false dichotomies and narrative you've been building.

 

Are we going to get an extension so that Tammy can catch up before night and maybe something mildly interesting can happen before the day ends?

I'm headed home now, eating breakfast and then falling asleep but then I will be catching up with this game in full!

 

Unlikely. I am willing to give her a daypass because she subbed in so late unless someone has a compeling case on fonti.

But like .. the only one even questioning her this game was me anyway.

 

I'm more interested in her input; she's an excellent town player and her reads here will undoubtedly help where we end up.

 

Would rather not extend the deadline given this day has already gone past the 4 day mark, day ends in ~13 hours of this post when that countdown link expires.

Please remember bids are not accepted in the last 10 minutes of the day.

 

I am hoping for both of you to have an impact on the game, but with her sub in being on short notice, I don't expect that much from her on this gameday.

 

Cobalt

Can we do this guys?

Save Reg a third replacement, and he's scum in my book.

---------- Post automerged at 15:28 ---------- Previous post was at 15:28 ----------

Vote: Cobalt

---------- Post automerged at 15:31 ---------- Previous post was at 15:28 ----------

It'll give Nacho and Tammy time to plead their cases tomorrow, we can save a decision between Koalas and Rubi until tomorrow if you guys are dead set on it. When Cobalt flips scum we'll have some more interactions to look at.

Of course, I still think Nacho is scum and Koalas and Rubi are both town, but we can leave that for now anyway.

 

Yeah, I'd love to hear from Tammy, I've heard good things. That said 13 hours to read and make an impact is a tall order - if she could just be ready to jump into things D3 that's honestly enough for me at this point.

In a couple hours I'll be around again to lay out where my head is again and argue against the other options - maybe that's the spark we need.

---------- Post automerged at 08:33 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:33 AM ----------

I an not voting for Cobalt.

 

I'd much prefer Rubicon but I wouldn't be mad about a Cobalt lynch.

 

Here's the thing about Cobalt:

1. It's a lynch essentially predicated on tom spew, as far as I can tell (Cobalt was pretty much just himself in those early posts, and his absence has now moved from null to scummy and back to null). We all know tom - a lynch built on tom spew is a questionable lynch. Unlimited scum range, etc.

2. Rubicon led the Cobalt wagon. So, if you're voting Cobalt then implicitly you think Rubicon is at least null, or that the best idea that Rubicon had in the aftermath of me dropping walls to implicate 2 scum in Rubicon/Wacomomma/Koalas was to start railing on his partner that I missed. I do not believe those things.

3. There is an argument that's sort of floating around on Cobalt that lynching him is worth removing the distraction. That would make sense if nobody felt strongly about anything - it's sort of the equivalent to no lynching in mylo in that won't hurt you, and can give gamestate clarity. I think in this case it's a lazy argument, because we're not closing on endgame and a decision that's vital, but rather in D2. A shrug lynch here is terrible.

---------- Post automerged at 09:56 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:30 AM ----------

In case I was unclear about what I thought, that's another reason I prefer Rubicon - Cobalt could potentially be lynched for a multitude of things that ultimately point more at annoyance than scuminess.

And sure, policy lynches happen or whatever, but it's a lot harder to extract useable info from the lynch of someone not genuinely even in the game with people voting him in ways that may or may not be alignment indicative than it is to extract information from someone who has people taking firm stances on him for his play. You can hold people to the latter in a way you can't necessarily do with the former.

 

Could you explain your second point some more Typhon?

Because I think there's a third option there; Rubi is town leading a lynch on scum Cobalt?

---------- Post automerged at 17:03 ---------- Previous post was at 16:56 ----------

Eyyy, post 1000 and I didn't even notice.