Un-break my heart
Say you'll love me again
Undo this hurt you caused
When you walked out the door
And walked out of my life
Un-cry these tears
I cried so many nights
Un-break my heart
My heart

 

Okay, so.

Is it safe to say we're lynching between Rubicon and Cobalt? Can everyone get a vote down on whoever they're leaning towards so I know who I need to try and convince? Pls?

---------- Post automerged at 02:27 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:25 PM ----------

Current (Unofficial) Votal:
Rubicon (3): Typhon, Vira, Koalas
Cobalt (3): Nachomamma8, Rubicon, Jarizok
Nachomamma8 (2): Jarizok, His Fluffiness
Koalas (1): Miner

Not Voting (3): Cobalt, Tammy, Jan

---------- Post automerged at 02:27 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:27 PM ----------

Fuck. Nacho only has one vote, I forgot to remove the Jarizok vote.

 

Oh they are. It's just my turn to pull teeth.

So of the remaining players we have Tammisian, HF and The Nacho Kid.

Nacho you were town leaning in 805. Tammisian you've stated multiple times is NOT in a team with Cobalt. HF is null by 858.

So would I be correct in saying the third member of your proposed team is HF>Nacho>Tammisian.

 

I wasn't asking you to dial up the condescension, lol.

My reasons for not expecting a Cobalt and fonti team are disproved now. She replaced out and he asked to replace out.

That’s my current PoE so if regfan blesses us with a Mafia flip today those are certainly people I'd want to sort. I'm hoping they inject some new life into the game which will make it easier to figure out what's going on.

 

This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.

 

Boingggggg

lynch: Cobalt

 

I have about two hours to catch up right now, will put in whatever time I have to catch up now but when 6:30 hits I have to go immediately (was really hoping we'd get the extension considering we still aren't at a full playerlist, but whatever).

 

But y tho

---------- Post automerged at 04:28 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:26 PM ----------

Wait, I already used that one. Here, have another.


---------- Post automerged at 04:32 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:28 PM ----------
Miner on a serious note, then, you think Rubicon is town?

 

I'm more convinced of it than Cobalt tbh.

 

Okay, talk to me about that. Why do you think that?

 

The argument that you're making here is lynching Cobalt and having him flip town throws the game because you're scumreading Rubicon; I understand that you've been putting work into the game and I respect that (you're my only townread right now for a reason), but if you can't reassess after one mislynch, then the problem falls on you and not the rest of the town and if you're saying that you're not going to attempt to read Rubicon if Cobalt flips town is an obvious tunnel that I'm more than happy to snap you out of if I have to unless you have something wildly compelling that damns Rubicon with a Cobalt townflip that I simply haven't read yet.

Your information with a Rubicon townflip doesn't seem to be all that compelling (in fact, it looks like the information gained from a Cobalt townflip minus the Rubicon suspicion).

Cobalt isn't resolving himself unless Regfan finds a replacement in 4 hours and that replacement manages to town themselves in 4 hours. Rubicon has a stronger chance of resolving himself because he's one of the few people contributing to the game right now, and lynching someone who is around and contributing and actually trying to solve is several degrees worse than lynching someone whose sole contribution to this Day has been to claim that he's lurking because he didn't get to use his neighborizer shot and then to say that nevermind, he just has a really busy schedule and he's outta here.

---------- Post automerged at 04:44 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:40 PM ----------

This argument doesn't make sense - as town, he should still be voting the counterwagon (he knows he's town, voting the counterwagon increases chances of a scum lynch). So, if he had any attachment to this game whatsoever, then he should be voting the counterwagon but he's not and here we are.

---------- Post automerged at 04:55 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:44 PM ----------

I don't have a particularly compelling reason for Cobalt as Mafia. I don't like him blaming inactivity on failing his role; I don't really have faith that he would be ~super active~ or even passably active if he had a QT with Newcomb to talk in and I think the assertion otherwise is pretty solidly silly, but I don't really have reasons otherwise.

My reason for wanting to lynch him right this second is because the current alternative is one out of two people who I've seen post anything even vaguely useful since I've started playing (and normally this is the part where I exaggerate for rhetoric purposes, but not an exaggeration) and I'm pretty strongly against lynching one of the only people contributing to a game that is completely and utterly dead.

I think this activity is beyond ridiculous, especially especially especially for a game that just had a scum lynch (and thus people should be energized, like Typhon, to hunt the other two down), and I'm not willing to take the leap and kill Rubicon unless I'm sufficiently convinced and I'm not anywhere close to there yet.

---------- Post automerged at 04:59 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:55 PM ----------

Vote makes sense to me. Why didn't it make sense to you?

---------- Post automerged at 05:00 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:59 PM ----------

Then why aren't you pushing for anything?

---------- Post automerged at 05:05 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:00 PM ----------

And you bring up why Rubicon makes a pretty bad option if you're wrong, and yet you still think Cobalt flipping town hurts us more than if Rubicon does? Could you flesh out this line of thought a little deeper?

---------- Post automerged at 05:08 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:05 PM ----------

I didn't have time to read the game quite until today. I'm not sure how you expected me to handle that situation differently.

I don't think fucking up reading the rules is particularly alignment indicative - feel free to make a different argument, though.

 

I don't think scum comes in here after the weird shit that was April Fools and simultaneously starting conversation and getting the thread to move.

Like, I understand that he was under a fair bit of pressure but I was never on him and there were a couple others that weren't (plus, of course, the fact that like half the thread didn't have a vote on anyone).

And like, honestly, with the way that Cobalt has played this dayphase and the lack of a suitable replacement, he's always going to be a mislynch (because he's probably not getting replaced until d3 at best, and even then it's difficult to go through 50 pages worth of stuff).

Basically, Cobalt has done nothing this entire game to convince me that he can be town. And Cobalt has done this sort of "peace out guys" post that he had (see AYAW), and he was scum then, so it isn't out of his range so to speak.

Basically, he's a better lynch than Rubicon. You might believe that Rubicon has been the scummier player wrt tom, and you could very well be right about that, but I can't justify not lynching Cobalt today given what Rubicon's done.

Rubicon flipping town, also, would basically mean thread goes ape shit trying to find the next lynch and being like ??? because you've got people on Vira, Jari, Koalas, and Cobalt.

 

Mrrrgl. Fake edit: in order now - there are new bits to respond to every time I refresh:

1. The argument I'm making is that there's no reason for me to reassess, particularly, because I called Rubicon out in a massive post for playing in a certain way D1. There were changes that occurred in his play and he's become an active player (the other active player, in fact), but it's impossible to ignore that they occurred after my post. That would be fine if the original issues had been little pings. I've been wrong, shit happens. They were not little pings - his overall play struck me as super scummy.

That it was less so after a wall from me on that play isn't surprising.

So then if I feel like Rubicon is pushing the Cobalt lynch because it's the lynch that he can get/the lynch that saves his neck, and Cobalt flips town like I kinda think he's going to, then there's no reason for me to reassess that I can see. The chain there is: I saw a player I thought was scummy > town lynched who he wanted instead > that person townflipped. Presumably either I'll die in the night to finish killing activity, and tomorrow town will murder him in my honor, or I'll live and they'll listen to me when I say "hey, let's lynch this guy now that we let him murder one of us first".

So if that happens, we've wasted a mislynch on Cobalt. Rubicon is absolutely my best guess - I'm probably 85-90% on him. But like, if I fuck that up and he's just wrong town, we're in a bit of trouble, and in the malaise of this game I'm not confident. Maybe you and Tammy are town and carry us to victory, but I think it's more likely that one of you are scum than Cobalt and that does not comfort me.

My point there was that Rubicon townflip is better than Cobalt townflip because the Cobalt townflip essentially necessitates a Rubicon lynch. I don't care for being tied into chain lynches, but there's no way I can say "lol, that went just like I thought I would, but let's not lynch Rubicon now". Basically, the reward for Rubicon scumflip and Cobalt scumflip is roughly the same, but the risk of the Cobalt townflip is greater for me than the Rubicon townflip.

That is selfish, I do acknowledge that. But, given the game, that's where I was and kinda still am. Hyped to have you engaging and I'm not salty at you, but it's a frustrating experience overall.

I said Cobalt might resolve himself not today, but eventually. Really, more maybe "the slot might be resolved". Don't want to annoy Reg by discussing more of this stuff in the thread, but yeah. Rubicon is what he is - Cobalt is a void of nothingness.

~~~~~

2. The second point has to do with the way I view Cobalt - as best I can tell, the guy is super emotionally driven. Like, not just here but in general; he's gotten pretty salty in a couple more games we've been in, and I think it fits as a general playstyle sort of thing.

So, with that frame of reference, I have an easier time thinking Cobalt got hyped to neighborize Newcomb, failed, got bummed about it, and then said "fuck it, peace, someone else will solve maybe" as a town player than someone who strategically lurked as scum coming back to make that post and not voting to potentially save himself.

That doesn't preclude him from being someone who gave up on his scum team, though. He did something similar in a different game. However in that game he straight disappeared. I don't think he shows up and actively throws for the scum team if he's scum. I just don't.

~~~~~

3. I get where you're at here. I'm not sure why people don't find the Rubicon argument compelling to be perfectly honest, but yeah, sure, at least Rubicon is trying.

I just feel like his point on Cobalt boils down to bad and scum are equivalent, because I feel like Cobalt has been bad but not necessarily scummy. And I feel like that and lol!tom spew probably isn't sufficient to be someone's only scum read. And, in that light he's active but not really doing anything. But of course I think that because how could I not given how I see the game, so shrug.

~~~~~

4. The vote came on the heels of trying to start a Koalas wagon. I get that Rubicon started on Cobalt before going back, but it felt an awful lot like someone just feeling out support for potential mislynches. Scum!Rubicon has to mislynch Koalas and Cobalt eventually, so it's kinda shrug.

I asked for thoughts for a reason here; I could see this being potentially jumping at shadows. I don't think it is, but yeah.

~~~~~

5. Think I covered this in 1.. Hit me up if you still want to talk about it.

 

I'm working on reading the game, but certainly won't finish.
The most important part to talk about right now is your Rubicon case - could you link it for me?

 

Ehh. I see what you're saying, sorta, but I think it's impossible to ignore the context.

In a vacuum, under no pressure, I'd agree that him moving and shaking in the thread is probably a good sign. But it's either him or somebody else today, which changes the perspective there. In this case, being the first one to start up again is just prudent - it's possible that you pick up a townread or two that way, and impossible to hurt yourself assuming basic competence.

The first bolded bit, in particular, is maddening, because if I understand you correctly you've already accepted there's a fair chance he's a mislynch and you're shrug lynching him anyway. Which is why he's a bad lynch. Because it tells us nothing about you because you policy lynched.

Moving on, though, I mentioned this in my response to Nacho, but I contend that AYAW and this are different situations (assuming he's scum here). He threw there by disappearing, but he did, like, basic scum competence things like vote for someone else. That seems hairsplit-y, but I think it's pertinent.

In response to the second bolded bit, what happens if Cobalt flips town?

---------- Post automerged at 05:49 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:48 PM ----------

Sure sure. Here it is.

 

I have the worst reason to lynch cobalt.
Cobalt payed for the neighbor thing already.

If he is town then he only has like half the money left and is always a lynch at the moment.

If he is scum then he has less money to fuck with town for the bids.


If Rubicon is town then we will lose 500$. If he is scum then he has more money to take away the good things from town today.


It is the worst reason, but right now I see Rubicon actually working the thread and somewhat trying to solve the game.
I am very unsure about him, but I am not willing to lynch Nacho/Tammy today, since they more or less just subbed in and I am confident that we get enough out of them to actually get good reads.

That being said, I have what feels like 10 towns right now.

---------- Post automerged at 00:59 ---------- Previous post was at 00:56 ----------

paid* - look it is 1 am and I need to sleep.

 

Lynch Vote Count 2.5

Cobalt (4): Nachomamma8, Rubicon, Jarizok, Miner
Rubicon (3): Typhon, Vira, Koalas
Nachomamma8 (1): His Fluffiness

Not Voting (3): Cobalt, Tammy, Jan

Player Currently to be Lynched at Deadline: Cobalt

Day ends in ~3 hours of this post when that countdown link expires. Please remember bids are not accepted in the last 10 minutes of the day. Flip may be delayed 10-15 minutes. Please do not post when countdown expires.

 

I'm pretty indifferent to that. We absolutely shouldn't nail out specifics (Cobalt should have never said anything), but town has a lot more money than scum, especially after we removed 800 of theirs D1.

Saving a couple hundred dollars of money should not be a deciding factor.

---------- Post automerged at 06:06 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:04 PM ----------

If Rubicon is scum removing another 800 is good? Not sure that I follow your point there.

 

Nacho, how good are you at reading Tammy?

 

From your postion as a person that is convinced on Rubicons alignment, yes.

I am not at all. Both of them can go either way. I have a towncircle and they are not in it.

In case of town then we lose more money with Rubicon.
In case of scum Rubicon can do us more harm by using his money before he dies, but it is also more money lost for scum.

I have no strong feelings on either of them as of right now + I think as long as I am right on my towncircle we win (almost) always anyway.

I will take nap for like 2-2.5 hours. Will be around for the last bit of EoD if needed.

Voting Cobalt>Rubicon as it stand right now, might make up my mind after the nap, who know.s