There's something about this post that just feels pure.

I'm trying like hell to stay awake to at least get through day one, but I'm fading fast. It's already quite well past when I'm already asleep; I'm a party animal RAWR! If you don't see a these are my thoughts from day one relatively soon, then I passed out and will continue in the morning. I've been holding off on talking about rubicon because everyone seems to think he's scum and I'm waiting for where that becomes apparent but as of yet I'm not seeing it.

 

Sorry, Rubicon.

If Fluff is scum, who do you think his partner is? I know you posted some worlds, but who do you think now?

It doesn't happen until Day Two.

 

I'm gonna make a tom post and preemptively clear myself if I'm wrong on Rubicon and leave this here; Rubicon wasn't trapped into this vote at all, I'm pretty sure the Waco wagon wasn't anyone but Waco/tom at this point and Jan votes had already begun to pick up steam.

---------- Post automerged at 02:03 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:01 AM ----------

Nope, tired, take that back.

 

I was asked qhat my thought process was, not to make a fool proof case on you.

I only skimmed through your rebutal towards Typhon at the time, because I was dead tired and slept for the last couple of hours before Eod (EoD being at 4 am does not really help me a lot).

My reaction and thoughts towards you were directed towards your behavior at End Of Day, not the part before.

 

You've posted 6 potential teams, said you won't vote for the majority of people on them then.. Nothing. Last 24 hours and you don't even have your vote on someone.

---------- Post automerged at 11:02 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:54 AM ----------

Aaaand I got called into work so I won't be able to be here for days end

 

Everything is coming together ..

Vote Koalas

Come on folks! Let's lynch him, while he can't defend himself!

 

The cobwebs are real >_>

 

I tried! I have to reread the catch-up stuff and comment on it, only read it around 5 am on my phone (in my bed) .. which was not the best time and place to do so.

 

Does that change your read on him?

---------- Post automerged at 10:04 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:50 AM ----------

The worlds I'm looking at put him with Koalas or Nacho.

It should be someone close-ish to his activity level to explain his lack of motivation.

Purely by gut, I would say Koalas - since he is the one who has pinged me throughout the game, while Waco looked okay to me.

 

Does scum being my favorite thing to play change that at all?

And on a less snarky note what's the mindset behind scum me spending 499 on hitman?

 

Not really.

If you can prove that you spent $499 on hitman, that would make you much more likely town (and the game a lot easier). Can you do that?

 

Doctor went for 501 to tom in.. 95% of cases.

I bought Hitman.

Either I gave up one of the two remaining scum outbids for an ability that had just lost a LOT of usability (while cops and daykill is still up) or I'm town.

 

Doctor could have gone to any of the 3 mafia, especially if bids were placed earlier in the day before they realized Tom was going to be lynched. The mid-day update that hitman was at $0 was posted a full 24 hours before Newcomb started to push Tom.

We have no insight into what bids were made and making assumptions without evidence is a good way to lose.

It is also possible you bid on Hitman. People don't always do the optimal thing.

Ultimately, if this is the strongest argument for you being town, that is not a good sign. Your play should speak for itself. It doesn't.

---------- Post automerged at 10:36 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:35 AM ----------

There is a more fundamental issue here, though - you appear to be trying to convince me I shouldn't scumread you.

Why are you concerned about my read on you?

If I'm about to flip mafia, you should be happy to sit back and let me spew you town.

 

But mafia have the guaranteed outbid, so why would they need to bid before they see who will be pushed?

 

Doctor was also at 500 at mid day. I bid 20 minutes after Mid Day. I'm not arguing for optimal, just a reasonable amount of thought. You're arguing for literally the worst possible play. Bit of a difference. Also New said he had a case on tom long before he pushed it.

I'm not concerned. You're not even trying to save yourself. I'm bored and getting some potentially useful thoughts out of you is something to do.

---------- Post automerged at 03:16 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:15 PM ----------

Also what fluff said.

 

Okay so as far as day one goes, I didn't find a whole lot to clear people from the Tom scum flip. I think Tom has interacted with his partners in a different way every time I've seen him as scum so that's not a good indicator either. I do think that Typhon looks more town from Tom's flip, which also doesn't help since I was already town reading Typhon. Tom's semi-tunnel on Typhon reminds me of the way he tunneled on a town player in the most recent game I played with him. He tunneled that guy much harder, but he was also a little more active and engaged in that game too.

Jari looks good from that flip as well, especially if his vote on Tom came before Newcomb said that he was 75% sure that Tom was flipping wolf here. I tossed around the idea of that being an early bus, and I suppose if his vote came after Newcomb giving that read then it could theoretically be early damage control, but his case and interaction with Tom just doesn't read that way, so I think he's just more likely to be town.

I still feel good about Jan, and I think that the thing that Jan pointed out about the way Tom read him not adding up looks good for him. It looked like a town read Tom always knew he was going to have but tried to make it look like a natural read and not town reading someone too fast and getting called out for a perspective slip. If that makes sense.

Jan I read your case on Fonti and well sometimes I'm able to explain my predecessor's action or thoughts, but this one is based mostly on mechanics, and she did somewhat answer herself. Mechanics isn't always my strongest suit so it's harder that way. But I will say that sometimes people just don't see the mechanics of a game the same way. There's a player who I highly respect for his ability to understand the mechanics of a game and break it for town, but in two games he's either come up with proposals for something or dismissed my plans to argue for something that I thought would help scum win in the end, suspected him in part for it and both times he was town just viewing this differently than me. I think that's what's happening here.

Still don't see where rubicon is such a lock scum for everyone. Vira says it becomes apparent day two, so I guess I'll see where that case is soon, but I don't think his behavior around the lynched suggests he'll flip scum either.

 

Correct, Newcomb first mentioned his plan to drop a spicy case on someone Monday, March 27, 2017 at 9:47 PM PST. He first mentioned Tom a few hours later.

Regfan posted the mid-day bids update Sunday, March 26, 2017 10:00 PM PST.

I am fully willing to believe that the hitman bid was placed 20 minutes after the update, when no one knew Tom was going to die. That is not "optimal" scum play, they didn't "need" to do it - but it's very believable.

Expressing dramatic incredulity that anyone would accuse you of doing [insert dumb thing which you totally did do and wish you hadn't] is a standard tactic from the mafia playbook.

There hasn't been a single point in this game when I thought, "Koalas really cares about finding scum."

Your play in the game thread needs to speak for itself. It doesn't.
his fluffiness, do you have a read on Koalas' play in the game thread?

 

Deadline is in ~8 Hours. Bids will not be accepted in the last 10 minutes.

Flip may be ~10-20 minutes late or so given I've had a fairly big night out.

 

I don't think us talking about mechanics actually helps.
You are not her and maybe she would have been able to explain things, but I know she rarely writes anything in her QT that might help you.

I just disagree with putting Jailkeeper and Dayvig in as high priority going into n1.
There is no good reason for it.

I am not even sure if I should get Dayvig for tomorrow. Will do some math over the night (it also depends a lot on the flip).

 

The number of town leans on me says differently. You're clearly pushing but afraid/unwilling to commit. And you wonder why no one's paying attention to you. Looking forward to the flip.