Am I the only one that is hoping for a Tom/Koalas/Vira team just for this?!

Just saying ...

---------- Post automerged at 06:32 ---------- Previous post was at 06:31 ----------

Thanks again Vira - I will talk to the wall for a bit and come back with results at a later date.

 

All my confusion about Kalas comes to a single statement:

Even as I was mislynching Rubicon, I wondered how this was possible. I said multiple times in-thread that scum would automatically outbid us. Other people said that someone (probably the lynch target, but as Tom proved, that’s a stupid idea) should bid $499 to make sure scum would outbid. As far as I know, only Kalas and I did this. Maybe Newcomb did too, but he died and is probably face-palming in obs heaven right now.

I need to re-read some posts. There was a unified confidence that we should bid $499 rather than $500. I can’t remember the reason, only that I thought it was stupid. I’d have bid $500 if I hadn’t bid $1 on that stupid Neighbourizer. I also need to see when Kalas said he bid at a specific time, and whether I said my time first.

Why would scum use their auction hiding power if they aren’t going to bid for the most important item in the game? Are they so cheap they wanted to spare two dollars? I understand why they didn’t bid before the midday update. If they bid then it’d make their auction hiding power useless.

If Kalas is town and is telling the truth, what happened? Are the last scums Nacho/Tammy, who’s slots just weren’t around after the midday update on D1?

And if Kalas is scum, why would he lie? What benefit does this bring? I suppose it depends who’s his partner in this world. If it were Waco or Font, Kalas could have been alone in his QT for the entirety of N1. He was the first post of D2 where he said outright he got Hitman x2. As far as I can tell, Rubicon was the only one to comment on this and it was a disbelieving “Uh huh.” I didn’t notice any of this, and Kalas didn’t repeat this important bit of information (AS FAR AS I REMEMBER). I know what it’s like to be the only scum in a QT. I’ve made a lot of irrational decisions that I wouldn’t have done if I had someone to talk to.

I just don’t get it.

Of course, there’s always the third world where Kalas is scum and still didn’t get Hitman x2 because scum were cheap and Newcomb snatched it with a $500 bid. He was very confident on his Tom read and since he would be a huge target N1, there was no point in saving his money.

I’d usually find some posts to make sure my facts are right, but Jan wanted me to make a case first, so here it is before I go to bed. If I have anything wrong here, please tell me. I don’t want a repeat of Rubicon. I should have listened more and made a case of my own, but didn’t, and that’s on me.

 

I have made up my mind about the possibility of a Koalas lynch today and I will talk about it later .. but for now it is :

What Did I Just Read There - Time!!


First :
This is your first post of d3. The koalas post you dislike happened d2.
Why is he your highest townread without questioning it?

Second :

Confusion. If we see a 501$ there we know they only have 1 outbid left going into d2.
This way we don't have any idea. Considering the tom lynch and the other important abilities in the game, scum might have decided to save the money.
If they were set on getting cop and dayvig, there is no chance that they would get the hitman with tom going down.


Third :

This is wrong. I will now post every early d2 post that acknowledges Koalas 2x Hitman claim :

Spoiler

First post of d2 - The hitman claim.

Instant response :

Typhon on the topic 3 minutes later.

You already mentioned Rubicon :

My response when entering the day. Koalas responded to this later on.

The people reacting to the Koalas claim within 1,5 hours were (in chronological order) you, Typhon, Rubicon and myself. Miner was around, but ignored it.

Koalas and I talked about it for a little longer because I pressured him into telling us when he made the bid. I don't think you ever said when you did your bid, which is odd considering you are stating here

After skimming your iso I can say that you did not ever say your time, unless it was hidden within a quoteblock about Rubicon.

Fourth :
Look at the quotes I talked about in my third point. Look again.

Does this fit?
In which world would you have said your time first, if you had not seen any of this (which you did because you were the first person to respond)?
Or are you referring to important information that is not the claim of him getting the 2x hitman? If that is the case, then just let me know what that information was that eluded you at the time.

Bonus Round :

I just stumble over this d3 post :

You made this post right after your d3 entry post, 3 minutes after you called Koalas a member of your "Town Circle of Happiness:".
You knew Koalas claimed to have bought the 2x Hitman.

How are you able to fit a Koalas townread and a scum don't have money left because they bought 2x Hitman and 1x Cop in the same world?
If that was your actual read on the game then Koalas should have been lock!scum.

And yes there is this little conditional If in your sentence, but you would not mention it if you didn't think it to be likely, yes?

This is a good starting point to move on from, I think.

 

Huh. Killing Jarizok was a mistake I think. With the way he faded away he was figuring heavily into my scum teams post Rubcion. He wasn't even that good a dodge, unless the scum team is exactly Nacho/Tammy which.. eh.

Vira it's not complicated. Why outbid on Hitman and play around Doctor when you can just outbid on Doctor and force us to waste money Hitman. ($499 was also so the D1 lynch, if town, could outbid and take it to the grave with them)

Anywho I've got an exam in 4ish hours, I'm going to go review. I'll be around all this evening to get this figured out.

 

I have an extremely busy day today; I most likely won't be around until tomorrow.

 

I didn’t notice what his post meant D2. I just thought he bid and didn’t get it. It was only pointed out to me after that D3 post.

I can’t believe that. There’s no guarantee Cop and Day-Kill would have shown up. You didn’t even choose Day-Kill, it showed up randomly.

Okay, thank you telling me. As I said, I didn’t notice what Kalas was actually saying until D3, where I talked with Rubicon (I think it was Rubicon) about what time I bid for Hitman x2.

At the time, I was very confident that Rubicon was scum and didn’t believe Kalas could be his partner. So I ignored it, though I posted I wasn’t sure what to think about it.

And I don’t believe Kalas is lock!scum. I’m trying to organize my thoughts and figure out what’s going on.

This reminds me of the posts I made as scum where I comment on how weird the night kills were.

… Why not outbid on Hitman and force us to waste money on Doctor? I don’t get what you’re saying.

Okay, the $499 makes a bit more sense then. Still, relying on the lynch target doing this is problematic considering we’re trying to put scum there.

 

Thanks again Vira.

The revision on your work is still out, but judgement will be passed soon.

 

Jesus Vira.

If town have the doctor and scum have hitmen, scum can get out wine'd and a late game save could happen.

If scum have the doctor and town have hitmen, scum don't need to worry about being out wine'd. In fringe worlds they could even fake a doctor save on themselves for confirmation.

All else being equal town would also be less likely to lynch a doctor over a hitmen. Or more likely to lynch a hitmen.

None of this is complicated. It's.. level 1 mechanics.

 

It is not as easy because town do get more saving roles then just the doc, but you are right for the most part.


Did your exam go well? Or at least well enough?

I might need your full fire soon because we need to lighten up this thread.

 

Please don't insult me. I'm trying to understand.

I could understand this scenario better if Doctor was the only protection role in the game. Then scum would be all clear and don't have to play a guessing game. But what about Doctor x1, Commuter x1, and Roleblocker x1?

I'm also weirded out by the possibility that scum could use their Doctor x2 to 'town-clear' someone. At the end of D3, we officially had five information roles in the game, four if Rubicon kicked the Tracker off a cliff. It seems risky to not kill anyone during the night and extend the game another Day. And anyways, that hasn't even happened.

Maybe I'm biased because I was a useless scum doctor in Hannibal Mafia and that torpedoed my game, but I don't like this at all.

You mean a Doctor ability that was bought for $501? What?

 

Technically scum knew that I was about to try and put forward information roles + bulletproof for d2.

And if we get watcher then regardless of them having hitman it still outs a scum if they go for the obvious target.

There are a lot of ifs and maybes to this.

I think if a town dies day 1 then scum might have gone for Hitman instead of doctor.
It is not very likely that scum would bid 501$ two times on day 1 leaving them open for the rest of the game.

Not impossible, but unlikely.

 

But Jan, what about Tom? He was about to die. Are you saying Tom didn't bid on anything?

 

Really dumb exam but well enough I guess? The course was this food-related microbiology/toxicology/parasites mash up. One of my classmates is a veterinarian who has done microbiology, toxicology and parasite courses separately and he found it stupid. Only needed a 30% though so whatever.

Sorry.

None of those three roles have a guarantee of dropping. In fact of those three only Doctor x1 made it into the game.

It hasn't happened no. Using the doctor like that isn't required. But it remains a possibility. Depending on how the game went they could fake Doctor x1 or even Bulletproof.

Essentially one of the other is, at worst, identical choices for scum. At best they can make a play.

 

Tom bid the 501$ on 2x Doctor.

I am confused as to why he didnt put the 300$ into anything like Gravedigger or Neighbor, because they couln't know who was getting that.

But maybe he brainfarted or didn't have enough time to think it through in the end.


Your thought is that scum bought doctor because tom died and had to buy something plus they bought hitman as well, which is strong for scum, but effectively reduces their lategame bidding influence a lot.


I will not say anything more on the matter right now because I really need Nacho and Tammy to play the game now that they caught up for the most part. (as in interact accuse make cases give thoughts, be here.)

I want to solve the game today and if there is town between them, then I need them to show it.

I have thoughts on both you (Vira) and Koalas, which I will talk about later (not all of those thoughts are good), and I am set on Typhon as town.

Plus I have a few anti alignments regarding fluff, which is a good start. (But yes he needs to do more too).

 

Are you talking about me? I've always thought Tom bought Doctor x2 as a last fuck you to town.

 

I mean .. yes and no.

It is the play a dying scum always does. Try to buy the strongest townrole(s) available at the time.

I am saying that your scum!Koalas world only works if scum blew most of their purse d1. And then went all out d2 by buying the cop as well.

 

I don't count Tom because he was going to lose his money anyway.

Roleplay time. Jan, let's say you're scum and not the auction owner. You or your partner bought Hitman x2 D1. Tom died D1 and bought Doctor x2.

A town controls the auction aside from randomness and you can only outbid one more time. Would you buy Cop in that scenario?

 

Three competing wagons (Rubicon, Cobalt and myself) all of which are town. Yes. Scum buys the cop 1000% of the time in that scenario. can you imagine what a Rubicon clear would have done for the game?

 

Depends on who has money left.

If the game is likely to be over because
a. the towncore will be too big with a greencheck or
b. a scummaember will likely get rechecked

then yes. Both of those do apply right now.

A greencheck on Rubicon for example would have made a huge difference going into d3.

A redcheck on a scum would have forced the game down to final 3 + either removed the hitman or remove the scum that has money left (if they don't buy cop d2).


I am not sure if Koalas would out buying the hitman as scum, because we can hold him accountable for it.
There can not be a medicsave on a person that dies in the night.

And we might get Jailkeeper and bulletproof for town today + we don't know if the doc is still alive and has used his shot.

Plus with watcher being in the game, scum have to somewhat hope/meta nightkills anyway, regardless of them having Hitman.

And no town will bid on vigi but me, because I claimed the maxbit already 1 minute into d1.
There would not be a point for town to do it, which emans they can bid on the other roles if they have money left.

Scum have a maximum of 300$ or 301$ left in that world, which means there is a good chance of town outbidding them, because there is not a single reason to hold back today for anyone.

There is way more to this, but as said I don't want to talk about mechanics at the moment.

It is somewhat of a crutch and I have thoughts/information that might influence people and their behavior today and I don't want that yet.
The game has been too slow for 2 days and we need to force people back into it.

 

Is this us lit Jan?