Vira's assumption that it was between tom and fluff means that Vira and Fluff are probably not aligned (doubt that she would take the townie at 2 votes out of the running like that).

I agree that the tom read is weird (in particular having him as high town and then "there's nothing to find wrong with him" which I think I remember but could possibly just be crazy).

---------- Post automerged at 10:10 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:08 AM ----------

I can understand feeling inclined to townread someone because they're townreading you and supporting you and that feels nice, but did she bring it up at the time? Tom also didn't really support her arguments all that much (I figured Rubicon defended her harder than he did from memory), but I can see how his defense would be less flattering.

 

Have not read/caught up. Will catch up as soon as I can, but I've got a good bit going on.

Just a point of order, in case anyone isn't aware - this is LYLO. If we fuck this up, that's gg.

I'm very aware of the hypocrisy, but would super like everyone to post where their head is with the included reasoning in the next day or so, so I can get a fresh sense of where everyone is.

 

Tom is definitely the type of player to put a partner on the top of his reads list or put his scumteam in the "meh" pile. Doesn't mean he did it, but he loves doing weird shit like that (hence unlimited scum range).

(Vira talking about Tom supporting her on Typhon looks better).

---------- Post automerged at 10:14 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:13 AM ----------

It's the day before LyLo.

 

Ahh, you're right, it's MYLO. My bad.

Even still.

---------- Post automerged at 10:21 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:15 AM ----------

Mmm. Is no lynching a terrible move here?

Not actually sure, haven't thought about it, but it is an option, I guess.

---------- Post automerged at 10:22 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:21 AM ----------

Now I'm out. Hopefully back before too long.

 

THe anwser to no lynching is yes it is almost always a bad move right now.

 

Using the Auction Hiding Power on something other than the doc makes sense even if they aren't bidding on anything else because ~WIFOM~ (you don't know if scum outbid it and are just lying about getting it for less than $501).

Waco was around because he bid $1 on gravedigger after the midday update, guessing he probably posted too.

Something else that stands out is Newcomb not putting down money on it - he earlier said that he and fontsian were the two likely nightkills and should sincerely consider bidding for hitman, he had a scumread he felt pretty confident about, fontsian was lurking hard... don't you think he expected to die?

If he was scum, lying means that his money is accounted for.
There's almost certainly not a chance that Koalas is scum who got Hitman x2 and has saved it up until now because that's just weird as hell.

---------- Post automerged at 10:29 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:25 AM ----------

No. It's always a bad move because we're not in MyLo we're on the Day before LyLo. It's extremely important that we hit scum today because JK + Tracker become insanely strong when there's only one scum left and a Daykill in the pocket means that no kill gambits completely fuck over scum.

 

Unsure.
He would not have to use it n1, because tom took doc out of the game.

N2 onwards there was a watcher in the game, which means scum are medic dodging anyway, right?

They could use the hitman power regardless, but they might not feel pressured to do so at the time.

 

Ah, Newcomb wouldn't bid $500 on hitman just in case tom was town.
Hmmm.

---------- Post automerged at 10:35 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:34 AM ----------

Watcher power popped up Night 3.

---------- Post automerged at 10:36 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:35 AM ----------

But Koalas probably wouldn't make a kill against an obvious target Night 2 because it would make him look more suspicious since HITMAN POWER.

---------- Post automerged at 10:37 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:36 AM ----------

In other words, apologies, talked myself in a circle.

 

Oh yeah n2 it was just 1x doc and night 3 the watcher got added. My mistake.

Anyways he would have to somewhat dodge n2 because there is a doc and a save claimed on someone who got nightkill would out him indeed.

 

That makes sense.

---------- Post automerged at 10:45 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:41 AM ----------

The argument that they wouldn't be willing to leave themselves open by outbidding twice is meh. Hitman is the strongest role for scum in the game; counters Bulletproof, Jailkeeper, Roleblocker, the other Doctor, Commuter. Cop is the strongest role for town, Daykill is obviously a juicy scum get but there's no guarantee they get it. Ideally, they outbid for all three but if they can only choose two out of those three then choosing Hitman makes plenty of sense.

---------- Post automerged at 10:47 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:45 AM ----------

What does this mean?
Reference to an old game?

---------- Post automerged at 10:49 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:47 AM ----------

And I'm caught up with Day 4, which has been fairly boring so far.

Jan, I don't think that Koalas has actually done any work yet.

 

I was hoping for people to be around last evening and to revive the thread (that is what he is refering to).

It is ok-ish active, but half of the people haven't done work.

---------- Post automerged at 17:51 ---------- Previous post was at 17:50 ----------

But Vira has.

What do you think about her case on Koalas?

w/w? w/v ? v/v not indicative at all?

 

Were you scum there or something?

---------- Post automerged at 10:53 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:51 AM ----------

I don't think she posted a case on Koalas as much as she posted some Koalas-centric thoughts and questions, which I don't think are particularly alignment indicative. I'm more interested in the product that comes when she's reread the posts that she needs to and is ready to roll.

 

Where?

It is not a reference to an old game.

It ereferenced this post of mine :

 

Ah.

I'll be posting again soon, having lunch first.

 

Partially there Jan. Just finished my second exam. Two to go.

As for Hitman I think people are REALLY overslestimating it's power (and ignoring that by claiming it it's forever useless except for the game ending kill)

 

Just leaving this without further comment except this which is only here because I had to write at least 10 chars.

 

Kalas’s Wagons and Vote Counts, D4 Not Included.


D1 - D2 Total: 114.
D1: 59.
D2: 33.
D3: 22.


D1, 25th, #174: Lynch Vote for Typhon. Reason: over-explanation in various posts; comes after my vote, though that doesn’t necessarily mean anything. Third on the Typhon wagon after me and Tom.

D1, 28th, #522: Elect Vote for Jan. Reason: more comfortable about Jan than Waco. Fifth on the Mayor Jan wagon after Jan, me, Miner, and Newcomb.

D1, 28th, #622: Lynch Vote for Font. Reason: to get her to do something on an off-chance. Second on the Font wagon after Jan.

D2, 29th, #796: Lynch Vote for Rubicon. Reason: Typhon’s case. Third on Rubicon lynch wagon after Typhon and I.

D3, 7th, #1255: Lynch Vote for Rubicon. Reason: same as yesterday; only voted when Typhon told everyone to stop sitting on their votes. Fourth on the Rubicon wagon after me, Typhon, and Jari.


Summary: Once Kalas is on a lynch, he rarely changes his mind. As of D3, he has only lynch voted four times. Doesn’t start wagons and doesn’t get on last (unless those wagons go nowhere). Posts tapered off after D1 and were nearly cut in half on D2. I would bug the fuck out of Kalas for not voting for someone who’d have a chance of dying on D1, but he doesn’t seem to have been around at EOD, and after his last post, the vote tally looked like this:

Jarizok (2): Fontisian, Vira.
Fontisian (2): Jan, Koalas.
Tom (2): Jarizok, Newcomb.
Typhon (1): Tom.
Cobalt (1): Miner.
Rubicon (1): The Waco Kid.
Jan (1): His Fluffiness.
Koalas (1): Typhon.
Vira (1): Rubicon.

Not Voting (1): Cobalt.


Questions Raised.

1. I need people who have played with Kalas recently. Is this sort of voting (sticking to one person) consistient with him in his town games? Even if not, it's probably not alignment indicative since Typhon and I also only* stayed on Rubicon for D2 and D3.

*As far as I remember.

Otherwise, I don't think the above tells me much of anything. Mechanics, why you fail me?

 

Ok _ I cannot wait longer with this (obvious) part just to get reactions and reads from people.

We will not lynch Koalas today unless there is a rock solid case on him.

Why?
Because any team with Koalas on it can not win today, but every world in which Koalas is town only needs one more misslynch to win.

Explanation :
2 scum alive.
Koalas bought the hitman thing for 4994+ regardless of his alignment.
We know scum have bought the cop for 501$.

If Koalas is scum then his team does not have the money to buy the dayvig.
That means they can't get to parity tomorrow.

If Koalas is town, then scum are very likely to have a bid of 501$ left, which means they can get the dayvig and they can end the game with just a single misslynch (and no medicsave).


Because of this Koalas is not the lynch today unless we are dead certain he is scum.
Feel free to look at him and make cases, but keep this in mind.

---------- Post automerged at 23:27 ---------- Previous post was at 23:25 ----------

On another note.

Vira is lock!town. Will lose to her or Typhon at this point.

No reason to keep holding those things back if people are not playing anyway.

---------- Post automerged at 23:31 ---------- Previous post was at 23:27 ----------

I am personally unsure about Koalas at the moment, I thought he was likely town going into the day, but I don't think that is set in stone anymore.


The fonti post I quoted earlier makes it unlikely for Fonti/Tammy + Koalas to be a world.

 

Makes sense.

---------- Post automerged at 05:34 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:34 PM ----------

Why the Vira clear though?

 

I had her as townlean most of the time, but today made a big difference.

I called her out for the early Koalas vote, mostly for reactions and I wanted to see who would join a possible push on her etc.
Funny enough I was able to make a good case on her when I looked back at her d1, nothing sure but still a good push and questions.

Anyways her case on Koalas was the important part.

Rubicon went hard against Koalas at the end of yesterday and it would have been very very easy to build a somewhat solid case just with what happened there, but she didn't.

She made a case on the spot that was somewhat faulty and was made only of memory and had several mistakes in it.

Her case is almost never from scum, I think. Scum are way more self-conscious and somewhat know what happened.
She had several pretty huge gaps and mistakes in her memory and I could pick apart her case within minutes.

If she was scum then she would have not published a case like that at the time.


I was hoping that some people would react to our interactions and maybe see someone jump on Vira, but nothing really happened and I need to move on at one point.

---------- Post automerged at 23:48 ---------- Previous post was at 23:43 ----------

In addition to that are the following people Vira is not on a scumteam with :

Not with fluff because of the EoD 1 vote stuff. Doesn't put both of her partners in her PoE-Vote while having a reason to vote Fluff the next day regardless of the Tom flip (called fluffs vote "random ass motivations").

Not with Fonti/Tammy because of the whole hitman/hitmen thing. That is a stupid and honest mistake that I don't think is w/w.

Not with Koalas for the 499$ comment early d2?!
+ Going for Koalas right now after having him as top town d1 AND d2.

Not with Typhon because Typhon was her first scumread and she only came around on him after a long reread d1. All of that does not feel w/w.


The only Scumteam Vira can be on is one with Nacho/Waco.