Lets see

fluff jarizok and waco are witches maybe? My manly instincts are telling me so, so it's probably correct.

I already said fonti's likely town, I feel good about newcomb and delphine too.

I should have waited a bit for regfan to post since I kind of wanted to see if he'd poke me about it

I'm not sure what's going on with atum but his posts are really different.

Regfan people told me you're kind of like Caphriel but you've actually much to learn. Caph was posting about optimal claim strategy in the signup threads by the end of FS.com

---------- Post automerged at 07:38 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:37 PM ----------

rubicon scum too? Just he's always scum in games with me

 

Regfan

I came around on the Vira townread yesterday. At the time we were first crossposting, I felt like she was gettin to much credit for her entrance, but she's been consistently involved and natural since.

I liked Newcomb's last couple of posts, but I'm nowhere near as comfortable with my read on him as you are. His first post was massively noncommital, which is scary for him. It's also strange that the only Koalas posts I can recall are interactions with Newcomb. That may say more about Koalas than Newcomb, but it's a thing.

The only bad thing I can say about Atum is that his entrance felt a bit like the gambit Citrus pulled when he came into the thread in HPmafia. That's tinfoil though, I'm confident Atum is town.

---------- Post automerged at 11:48 ---------- Previous post was at 11:43 ----------

1 in 3 or 2 in 4 is not too bad a score Kai.

Can you elaborate on your Fonti townread?

 

@Kai - Did consider posting it inside the sign up thread but was worried Eido might consider it "Against the spirit of the game" and didn't envision a whole lot of issues with it just being brought up at game start, was obviously wrong in that regard. What's the Jari & Waco scum reads based around? Real manly man can elaborate on that and I sure hope you're a real manly man.

@Jari - Fair, find your stance on Vira pretty reasonable, I actually have no real concerns with Newcombs initial post here and seem to be the in the minority here about that; there's been several comments of his here that feel very genuine, they're not unfakeable alone but in combination I think it points pretty heavily towards Town!Newcomb, the fact that a lot of his reads and thoughts mirror mine so closely strengthens that.

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I make very little of Wacos early posting, about the only thing I get from his interaction with Fable is that they're very unlikely to be partners from it. I did like his exchange with Jari inside Post #383 and found the discussion re; reads elsehwere slightly towny; I also think his stance on Fonti/Miner inside Post #412 means if Miners actually scum Wacos probably town since I don't think he considers the most likely scenario be Fontisians scum read on a partner to be a "fake" one.

I actually like his question directed towards Newcomb inside Post #488 since it feels like him thinking about the game on a deeper level. Got a weak townish read on him overall and would like to see him talk about Non-Fable players a bit more.

 

I'm going to use one of my lifelines and ask the audience on this one.

I have previously.

 

Mentioned this a few times now but my largest issue with Miners early game is that the tone and manner of his interaction with Fonti doesn't read anywhere near as genuine as I've seen in the past and feels like him trying to "copy it" and failing; similarly disliked his reaction towards Newcombs read on him in Post #77.

With that said the biggest problem I've got with him so far is that he's got ~30 posts in the thread but zero real game related/content posts, he's not stated a singular read and wouldn't be surprised if he was advised to minimise reads that'll give town information if the lynch looks like it'll still be on him early D1. The fact that he was still somehow able to be around and respond to Fables question about Fontis scum meta within ~4 minutes of it being posted inside Post #268 points heavily towards him actively keeping up with the thread but not stating any reads whatsoever which given the situation he's in is a pretty strong indication that he's mafia here.

On a meta level I think his play here resembles his mafia play inside TH7 than any of the town games I've seen him in too. Still got a few players to go through but fairly sure I'll be voting Miner at the end of this, pretty confident he's mafia here.

 

So your elaborate Fonti read is that's she's being in the way town!Fonti is mean? I don't think we quite agree on what constitutes elaborate. I'll give you that you've posted more words on Fonti's alignment than anyone else's this game.

 

It's cheating to use different definitions of the same word.

 

Going to have to pop out for a bit, will get back to the rest of the players when I get back in ~2 hours. Here's where I'm currently at re; players I've gone through in detail;

Town (S->W): Atum, Vira, Newcomb, [Big Gap], Waco
Null: Cobalt, Koalas, KaiDASH
Scum (S->W): Miner, Fluff

@Kai - Willing to let you hold of on the Waco explanation until later but I do really want you to give explaining the Jari one a go.

 

Part of it is that he's using a lot of words to say little.

 

Not more than one I don't think? But not really the point, I've played more games than that with some people gone on similar streaks and still read them wrong on occasion, so no I don't really think that guarantees miner to be a witch at all.

---------- Post automerged at 07:03 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:49 AM ----------

The reason I said before I might be wrong on fluffy is that he was responding to a prod from hours before after trying to respond to it once before. I don't think a witch would usually care enough to remember, and I wasn't V reading fluffy on it but it was enough to get me to reconsider my read.

---------- Post automerged at 07:08 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:03 AM ----------

LolJarizok, is this level of insane gun jumping normal for him?

 

Still find Rubicons scum read and reasoning on me inside Post #137 coupled with his Post #154 fairly understandable and something slightly more likely to come from town there. That said there's a few things about his play that I've had issues with thus far though and would like him/others to comment on;

1) His elaboration on Jans meta and statement about him this game inside Post #424 doesn't sit right given I think out of everyones scum reads on me Jans is the most problematic one and it's something I'm actually finding difficult to see being a genuine read from Jan. The fact he went from saying there's a large difference playstyle wise to not commenting much more on Jan after is a problem.

2) His statement that he thinks Fluff hasn't really done anything alignment indicative towards Newcomb inside Post #487 contradicts him agreeing with my reasoning behind Fluff being mafia inside Post #225 is something I'm having trouble following.

3) A few of his reads feel like him intentionally weakening them to give himself some room to move, examples being the way he phrased his read on Vira inside Post #214, the way he phrased his read on Atum inside Post #302 and the way he treated Miner inside Post #218, being unsure on reads is one thing but the fact that he seems to differ from complete confidence in reads like Vaimes to huge uncertainty elsewhere with no real middle ground is concerning.

All up think I've got a weakish scum read on him? Would really like to hear others, particularly Newcombs thoughts on this read.

I don't think I agree with that assessment of his play at all?

 

Oh also to a dress waco's point on me on the whole fonti/miner thing I don't have a strong read on miner but that's how I play. I will heavily scrutinize things to test to see if people's ideas hold up, if they don't I don't pay them much attention but if they do thenot that person may have something. Right now fonti just seems to have "I never read miner wrong" which doesn't do a lot for me and seeing as how fonti came in pushing on miner and just seemed to decide he was based on not much or anything from what I can see I'm unlikely to take something like that seriously.

 

fontisian - Would like you posting where your head is at re; majority of the playerlist with some reasoning attached if possible, if you're town here you walking me through some more thought process would really help and would be greatly appreciated.

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I liked Fontisians early push and read on Miner, matched my read there quite well and similarly liked her early town read on Vira inside Post #163, her reasoning behind the Miner read inside Post #176 makes plenty of sense too, that said there's not a lot there that I think is particularly unfakeable whatsoever and outside of her Miner push I don't really have any sort of read on her play.

---------- Post automerged at 06:48 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:39 AM ----------

I think Jaris response towards the early push on Miner inside Post #224 is highly unlikely to come from scum given there's no real world where the post makes sense if he's mafia; if he's partners with Miner I don't think he attempts to defend him in that sort of manner knowing it doesn't increase the odds of Miner living but makes him look worse upon the flip, if Miners town and Fontis town I think he just lets the push go along naturally knowing that post will likely draw negative attention his way and I don't think he makes that post if Fontis scum with him and Miners town.

I also didn't mind his initial response towards my reads inside Post #226 and Post #230; can see him genuinely attempting to assess the game inside the posts. I similarly have found a lot of his reads/thoughts/questions as the games progressed like inside Post #514 and his scum team theories like inside Post #516 and Post #518 read super genuine transparent scumhunting.

While I disagree with his "plan" I think him putting it forth about the priest checking the gravedigger inside Post #228 and again in Post #235 has a lot of town motivation behind it; I don't foresee Jari bringing forth a plan he thinks is suboptimal as mafia here and I struggle to see him putting forth a plan he thinks will hurt the scum team knowing he's likely to get little town cred from it.

I similarly think him not considering witches claiming a role they've dropped inside Post #237 and Post #240 comes across very genuine and think if he's mafia it's something that would have likely been brought up somewhere inside the scum QT by that point.

Would honestly bet the game on Jarizok being town right now.

---------- Post automerged at 06:51 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:48 AM ----------

Pretty much caught up entirely, just Delphine/Fable/Jan/Owner/Vaimes to go.

Hopefully Newcomb wakes up soon too.

Updated Reads List:

Town (S->W): Jarizok, Atum, Vira, Newcomb, [Big Gap], Waco
Null: Cobalt, Koalas, KaiDASH, Fontisian
Scum (S->W): Miner, Fluff, [Gap], Rubicon

 

People give too much credit to the incredible planning of witch chat.

 

What is this in response to?

---------- Post automerged at 08:09 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:02 AM ----------
Jarizok


"One met the dark with learning. But in the end, learned his knowledge was wanting.
The world began without knowledge, and without knowledge will it end.
Dost not this ring clear and true?
Fear not, the dark, my friend.
And let the feast begin." (Locust 3:3)

http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/threads/5955-Copless-15er

 

Commentary like this. It's irrelevant since we don't know the composition of the witches. Even if the type of player to do this is a witch, we don't know that it actually happened.

Basing any play off of 'things that could have happened in witch chat if certain players are witches and they had a particular conversation' is no way to play.

 

@Kai - It's less a case of "Mafia discussing it inside the mafia chat" and more a case of thought process, I'd expect mafia to reach the conclusion that they can claim the role they're not using fairly easily; if you put any real thought into the game as mafia that's an option you'd always consider and effort/planning/strategising is something that Jarizok was talking about wanting to do in sign ups if he drew mafia here, him genuinely not realising it fits a lot more with him just being town here and not having a chance/needing to do such.

It's only part of the reason I'm confident he's town, would be interested in hearing your thoughts on the rest of my read on him given you have him as scum here.

---------- Post automerged at 07:49 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:29 AM ----------

So been thinking about the mechanics aspect of this a bit during the last few hours, I still think gravedigger claiming D1 is the optimal way to proceed, I think it's very vital to lock scum into that claim if they have the role here and given that it'll be a large part of providing information for us to proceed with I think having maximum time to assess their legitimacy is very vital and not a lot of downsides to them claiming.

I think overall I agree with Jans mechanics post inside Post #244 with Oracle claiming to save themselves or their "clear" near the end of the day otherwise Watcherman/Oracle claim as one of the duo at the start of D2 with their clears and we work from there, it leads towards a risk of mafia claiming the Oracle to save themselves or a partner near EOD today and them having more information to decide how to claim it tomorrow if they have it but the upsides for this plan seem decent enough that I'm willing to advocate for that avenue.

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I'm willing to believe that the lack of actual reads and proper questioning from Jan inside the pre-game here isn't alignment indicative given his reasons of a) Wanting less potential to jeopardise the game when meeting with Fonti and b) Thinking limiting information during pregame is optimal both seeming to be fairly reasonable.

That said I still take a large issue with his early scum read on me inside Post #49 and his reasoning behind it in Post #241 given he's well aware from both TH7 and my posts during the postgame of Owners Marketplace that my posts are generally always "Blocks of text" and never really "Pretty" so him using that to attempt to differentiate between me having typed the post pregame feels very much like a fabricated read.

I don't think it's hugely alignment indicative for him but I really like his mechanics post inside Post #244. I mostly like his reads given inside Post #373 and think the Delphine town read explanation and way he's gone about "Thinking about it -> Posting it" inside Post #388 feels genuineish.

Overall still have a very weak scum read on him but I think with D1 officially having started now and him likely actually producing a lot more content I should be able to get a much better grip on him soon.

 

Since it's been picked apart pretty thoroughly, that "wall" was me taking a page from Citrus/Zen for the purposes of a reaction test. Sadly it didn't really give me as much as I'd hoped.

I'm working towards it, but have a fairly large group in he middle I'm still sorting through. I think most of the reads I have so far are at least mentioned in the thread.

Haven't had a chance to catch up with the posts since I signed off last night, but excited to see some larger explanations coming in. Heading out now, will catch up fully later

 

Ok so numbering your paragraphs 1 to 4,

1: Pretty irrelevant, fonti gloating that she's already got a witch running for the hills is rather obviously over the top.

2: I actually didn't like #226, it reads more like he's trying to prevent a bunch of 'little' townreads from snowballing out of control. I'm not as enthused as you about the other posts but they're less obviously objectionable.

3: GD stuff gets repeated every game, there's nothing new under the sun.

4: We talked about this already.

The problem is mostly whether or not they're a witch (and lying) - our mechanical tools to assess that are the same whether or not the GD claims today.

Outside of the priest checking them, of course, but mandating a check on the day 1 claim GD is a poor use of resources.

 

I like that Delphine had her own reasoning behind scum reading Fluff initially and still disagreed with Rubicons reason for Fluff being mafia while maintaining the read inside Post #248. I like her response towards Atum about myself inside Post #297 and Post #310 and her assessment that the very early game is when I find the biggest playstyle clashes and have difficult playing it is pretty spot on.

Her elaboration about her town read on me inside Post #508 particularly the first paragraph of it to come across as a very genuine thought process and think the meta analysis of me is very accurate with the analysis of timestamps between phone posting being something I don't think she'd consider bringing up as mafia here. I think there's a very good chance she's town, the only slight niggle I have here is that the lack of paranoia (to state a better word?) given our last encounter together isn't something I was expecting from her.

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@Kai; I don't think 1) Is irrelevant at all, I don't see a world where as scum he enters the thread with that post, none of the worlds I've run through really make sense with it and sure while I'd agree that Fontis confidence level initially could be argued as over-the-top it's not something I expect Scum!Jari to point out instantly.

As for 2) I think the fact he commented on my reads and then proceeded to state his own with the reasoning attached to it all being pretty understandable is a very good sign, there's not been a post of his I've been troubled by. Willing to concede that 3) probably isn't as strong a point as I thought initially but very much would bet on him being town here.

It's not about the 'mechanical tools' to assess whether they're lying or not, it's about giving us time to get a better read on that player, with 18 players inside the game I might be able to keep up reading and analysing everyone during the weekend but once the work week starts again good chance I'll have a few players I look slightly less at, imagine others are the same.

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Going to have to call it a night here, Fable/Owner/Vaimes will have to wait until tomorrow.

Town (S->W):Jarizok, Atum, Vira, Newcomb, [Big Gap], Delphine, [Gap], Waco
Null: Cobalt, Koalas, KaiDASH, Fontisian
Scum (S->W): Miner, Fluff, [Gap], Rubicon, Jan

For now;

Vote: Miner