Why couldn't it have been?

I often make those kind of votes at or near the start of day, and occasionally something good falls out!

It's absolutely inside of Cobalts scum range to do what he did if Watchman is a witch role.

Probably closer to garden gnomes for all I care about them at this time.

 

Lets not pull teeth here, you know what I'm asking; why did you specifically vote me when you did, what exactly did you intend to get out of it and what did you actually get out of it? Some thought process, please.

Feel like fake claiming a clearance on a townie that has 4? votes on them D2 after losing a partner D1 is a massively -EV scum move to make, sure it allows him to survive a few more days and go deeper himself but it means throwing his partners to the wolves. Surely the optimal scum move for him there is fake it on a partner that he thinks he can go deep with and endgame the town while maintaining his town read on me D1; that way he looks good regardless of what happens with the wagon on me. There's also the fact that tonally this doesn't feel anything like what I know of his scum game.

 

You're somewhat of a polarizing player, so I wanted to see what would happen. There was a few naked votes which is whatever, and I half suspect that Rubicon voted you because you'd have an entertaining reaction.

There's 0 chance you were getting lynched off that wagon as it was. It was 4 naked votes. Secondly the timing on it is awful as town but very opportunistic as a witch.

Awful as town: It short circuits any further pressure on you and prevents any more commitment from players already on your wagon. If Cobalt is town and knows you're town, allowing the situation to play out is so much better.

Opportunistic as witch: It's possible (probable even) that someone like fonti or Newcomb (or even your own full entry into the thread) would have stopped the wagon cold and gotten the game to refocus attention elsewhere. If that had happened, it could leave a Witch!Watchman role entirely dead as there might not be an opportunity in future to make good use of the role.

Given the situation, what Cobalt did for you is actually very low cost as a Witch: You weren't going to get lynched as it were - you probably weren't going to get lynched at all and now Witches don't have to navigate around your alignment at all, they can just say you're town.

 

Eh, this is fair enough.

I'd like to think I was never getting mslynched here given how much I've put into this game but with 4 votes there and Atum most certainly to join at the time (He did) with Fontisian a possible person to join and Jarizok too the wagon could have got to ~7 votes fairly easily. While your "It was bad to do as town" argument does make some sense I don't read Cobalt as the type of player to consider that or holster information at all.

As for the "Opportunistic as witch" he looks almost as good if he just maintains his town read on me from D1 when it's revealed I'm town here, I think the "Watchermen result" would be overkill as scum, he'd be able to select a partner and have two of them coast based on it. Effectively what I'm saying is he can still claim it on a partner and defend me via his town read getting the best of both worlds if he's mafia, the way he's gone about it would be pretty -EV as scum.

Anyway working on my reads list.

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And I'm very serious about Fluff claiming in his next post.

---------- Post automerged at 06:40 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:09 AM ----------

I'm going to have a turn butchering Eido's reads posting style since everyone and their mother already has, though really it'll probably just end up into one of my normal read walls. I'm town, I've touched on my reasoning behind being pretty sure on Cobalt being town inside #1480. I'm pretty certain Delphine is legitimate, elaborated on my town read on her in #664, #1334 and her recent posting has strengthened that which in turn means Miners town which leaves 4 scum inside the list below, going to go through them via post count;

Atum
Fable
Fontisian
His Fluffiness
Jarizok
KaiDASH
Koalas
Newcomb
Rubicon
The Waco Kid
Vaimes
Vira

Fluff
I've already touched on my Fluff scum read today inside #1478 as well as earlier in the game in #216, I've seen no genuine thought process from him or anything this game that points against him being mafia and his avoidance of Miner/Owner discussion as well as his read flip on myself are all huge scum tells, would prefer we have him claim and lynch here today.

Atum
I still like Atums entrance post inside #281, the suspicion of me, the comment about discussing strategies before scum drop a role and the overall relaxed nature of the post all read town, his thought process about Rubicon in #333 felt very real and genuine. While I think his reads inside #854 are horrific the frustration at being town read so easily here is something I really don't see coming from scum, carries over to #1065 and #1281. I like his reads post inside #1389 a lot more than his prior ones despite him misreading inside it.

So overall most of his posts and thought process come across town. The only concern I have stopping me from ruling him out entirely is that his lurking between his initial spring of posting and his late in the day is something that does have scum motivation behind it and I'm still waiting on a lot more reasoning behind his thoughts now. I'd remove him from the lynch pool for today and probably the foreseeable future and hope I see enough from him today to rule him out completely.

Koalas
Koalas reads and comments on Owner inside #642 feels like 'setting up for town cred' rather early on, the attempt at linking what Miner & Owner had done but not really stating much more about her doesn't sit well particularly given he doesn't vote her there. I dislike his stance and reasoning on Fluff inside #692 and can see it being an attempt to squeeze a partner into his town list there.

I can kind of see what people are saying re; his #930 being a mixture of distancing with a partner while attempting to lead her towards a reasoning behind not having to actually vote her but I could also follow a lot of what he's saying there and don't think it's an implausible post to come from town and I like a lot of the logic presented there? I suppose I just don't see it as a smoking gun like others are. The first paragraph and third one inside his #1287 are a thought process I just don't really follow and doesn't feel like genuine analysis though I don't mind the second paragraph at all. Overall I think there's a decent chance he's scum but not as convinced as others are here, think Fluffs the better lynch.

KaiDASH
I liked all of Kai's early town reads inside #521 with the only scum read I had a huge disagreement with was the Jarizok one where I could at least understand part of his stances on it in #539 and it flows smoothly into his vote on him #804. The strength of the Fable town read he has in #1452 is pretty out of the blue but the reads list in #1468 is much closer to my thoughts.

Recent concern I have of his though is that it feels like he's trying to doubt-cast some players I think are town like his treatment of Atum in #1472 and Cobalt in #1481; his reasoning behind them make sense but I think if they're actually town then scum have a lot of motivation towards attempting to try and keep them in the lynch/suspect pool. I feel like I went into this with no read on him and came out with no read on him. Helap?

Going to take a break and pick back up from there in ~1 hour.

 

You can believe what you like, but you're underestimating his ability if you think this is beyond him.

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I feel like this is some kind of ironic echo after what I said earlier in the game.

 

Regfan Is there anything in particular you didn't follow in 1287? I felt I was pretty straightforward.

 

Does pretty much everyone think fluffy is a witch at this point?

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Because I can confirm he isn't.

 

The Waco Kid
I still like Wacos interaction with Fonti about her Miner read inside #412 although it's possible that it's just him setting himself up to look good post Miner flip so it's a much weaker town tell now, same can be said for #450, it's sort of 'reasonable' posting. I still like his interaction with Newcomb in #488 and him trying to get Newcomb to look into Owner more points towards him being town with the flip and the elaboration behind his Fable thoughts in #499 is decent but the placement of Owner inside #592 makes plenty of sense as a place to stick a partner there and is questionable combined with his #595.

I really liked his response towards Fable inside #757, it was both good advice and the "Think I've nailed scum section D1" inside it felt organic. He was one of the very early voters on Owner and it looks like he cross posted with Delphines claim making his vote in #1021 a decent indication he's town, particularly given the way he went about it doesn't look to grab town cred and I feel like his response inside #1035 reads decent town. Overall I think he's probably town here but it's not a read I'd bank the game on at all since I think his initial stance on Miner and placement of Owner does make some sense as scum.

Your first paragraph there does nothing for me, I interact with players differently and it doesn't always rely on the read I have on them; I think him treating Newcomb differently than others doesn't mean a whole lot at all. As for your third paragraph, I think his "gambit" re; the reads wall was much less serious than you're making it out to be, you be lesser invested in a gambit but still somewhat disappointing it reaped no rewards. I just don't think there's anything hugely alignment indicative there.

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/Headdesk. There's a reason I wanted him to be the person to claim.

---------- Post automerged at 07:28 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:27 AM ----------

Like Fluff needs to get online ASAP and confirm the thoughts I have.

 

This feels inconsistent on your feelings on him that you posted earlier.

 

his fluffiness

Hopefully that speeds it up.

And Fable, we're best to shut up about it until he turns up.

 

Regfan I'm not following you. You think Waco trailing off on the Fable scum ream is a decent or at least not merit less point but disagree with Waco wearing kid gloves with Fable/owner but going bare knuckles with Newcomb? Like yes people interact differently with different players but in context I think that's noteworthy.

I think you missed my point in the third paragraph. The sticking point isn't the minor disappointment expressed to Cobalt later, it's the complete and utter lack of reaction to Rubicon spilling the beans.

 

oh goody, pants party fiesta.

 

Koalas - I think the point re; how he sort of minimised the strength of his Owner read inside his reads list is relevant, mentioned it above in my read on him, it's certainly a concern. That said I don't think the difference between how he interacted with Fable v Newcomb is meaningful here. I understand what you're saying about the third paragraph, I just still don't find it to be a real alignment indicative thing, for something like that someone noticing that it was just stolen from the OP was always going to happen and it's hardly something he can be 'frustrated' about but 'sad' it didn't do more, sure?

Indeed Kai, really wish Fable just kept his mouth shut until Fluff turned up.

 

I find it interesting you're accepting it so readily when I never said in what context I gained that information.

 

Speaking of which he's online now!

his fluffiness you need to claim.

 

Why would I claim when the only person asking me to is scum?

 

You do realise Cobalt has a Watcherman innocent on me here, right?

There's a lot of advantages to you claiming right here. If what I think is the case is true scum are already going to 100% be aware of it meaning you really have no downside to.

 

fable do you think fluff should claim here?

 

No.

/10char

 

You do realise mafia probably know exactly what's going on, if I think I've worked it out with 1/5th of the information they won't have any issue whatsoever and not outing it so we can work based on it here is just going to be hurtful.