Derpclear also kinda accepted :/

 

The coaching argument doesn't do much for me then.

There's arguably some scum motivation for being lynched today in that it gives demons numbers and a free kill on Fluff but I don't think they trade a scum player that's widely town read for that which is why I lean towards it increasing the odds of Atum being town.

 

I missed the Dame lynch idea.

Why aren't we doing that?

 

I feel like you going with the derpclear rather town from interactions with Owner which you said you'll get around to or cleared by Cobalt as watcherman is uh, problematic here Newcomb because it wasn't solely a 'mechanics' thing that ignoring it sue to that would have fitted with. But finish catching up and answer my prior question.

 

My stances on the Vaimes, Vira, Atum, Cobalt quartet haven't changed meaningfully since yesterDay. I think all four are moderately likely to be out of their scumrange.

If I'm getting fooled by one of them, I'd rate it Cobalt > Vira > Atum > Vaimes.

Your last two posts to me have kind of ticked me off, in a NAI way, more in a "back off and let me do my thing" way. We're lynching Koalas here in almost all worlds, I'm dipping my toes back into D1 picking at things that interest me.

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Like, jfc, Reg, if I can get over the fact that you shaded Fluff from here to next Wednesday D1 and are fucking RED CHECKED right now, you can get over the fact that it's not actually wolfy of me to just want to chaingun into the PoE and not be all super alpha thread captain right now.

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Tail end of this conversation.

It's... yeah it would definitely surprise me if Rubicon/Waco were w/w here.

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Tripling down on fonti/Vaimes never w/w here.

 

Rubicon - Plan originated here;

The idea was to hopefully lynch someone in the null/scum pool with a Win/Win type result from it. Atum can be scum via PoE but I don't think anyone in the game has an actual scum read on him while majority of the game are pretty confident he's town. I guess I'm just questioning whether it's still a worthwhile move to make instead of lynching what is very likely scum in Koalas and I'm leaning it's not right now.

Newcomb - Sorry, didn't mean to irritate you at all, just want to hear some fully formed reads and stances from you because while I've liked a lot of your analysis this game outside of Jan/Fonti/Myself I've felt a lot of your reads elsehwere have been uh, in the process of being finalised. And while that's very understandable in a game this size D1 with the clearancess we now have I think if you can nail down reads inside those names I listed this game becomes easy peasy. So when you're done catching up, see if you can run me through the Vamies read a little more, crossing him off the list is a huge gain right now and sure after that we can start mauling some scum starting with Koalas.

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I'm probably not explaining myself well enough. Pretty much I want to be able to remove people like You/Vaimes from the PoE with a decent amount of confidence, since if I can do that the scum team becomes like 4 people in a list of ~6. Right now I lean towards you both being town but they're not reads I'd heavily commit to and I think some thought process from you on him would him in both regards.

To speed things up though; Koalas, you may as well claim in your next post.

 

Eh, I'm half irritated with myself, too.

It's like. Either game is easy, or game is hard. If it's easy, all the claims are real and it's just like Owner/Koalas/Rubicon/Jarizok/fontisian or something. Waco could maybe go in there for Rubicon. Maybe Kai in some worlds, idk. But like, the PoE is generally right and has 3+ witches.

If it's easy, it's easy, and we're just spinning our wheels.

If it's hard, how is it hard?

It could be hard in a couple ways.

1) One or more of the chain of claims could be a gambit. Like, maybe this is Owner/Delphine/Miner/Cobalt/Reg just styling on people. I don't think that's at all likely, though.

Fable/Fluff are almost certainly real with no CC on either worlds where they're lying are kinda not super there. And I checked Fable's crumb, he turns around his Fluff read like 22 minutes after pregame ends, that's kinda next level if fake. So yeah, no.

Delphine could be lying about Miner. I mean, I'd still kinda buy Miner being a witch here; absent Delphine's claim Miner does not look town to me, at all. Like, he got cleared and then peaced out, pretty much. Delphine was moderately townread to majorly townread before the claim. To make that play D1 as scum saving your partner implies, what. Like... she'd have had to have been setting it up, she had things in her ISO that showed she was going there, if it was fake. Miner, of all 4 of her potential partners, just doesn't seem like a gamewinning play at all. So that's also still just not really ever a world.

Cobalt clearing you, eh. At least that one is maaaaaaaybe possibly not a hard w/w if he's a w. Like, that's at least within the ballpark of reasonable that Cobalt could do that as a wolf to you as town. That early vote pileup on you, it's strictly -EV to save you there if you're town, so it would have to be another Concussion Mafia Special where Cobalt's just kind of freewheeling it with the bonus of not having to pretend to read you anymore. So nah. I think if Cobalt's a witch here he's way more likely to be with you. It's kind of the opposite of the Miner thing, where I could actually see you being a witch worth saving. It still doesn't seem super likely to me; Cobalt's indignation / vindication about his read on you just kinda... fit his town meta. It's part of my read on him, tbh. At some point I might go back and look at Concussion Mafia to remind me of his tonal range, but.

Of those three you/Cobalt is probably one that's most potentially not v/v but like. I don't really have any huge reason to think it's not, so.

2) It could be hard in the way where there's 1 or more in Vaimes/Vira/Atum/Cobalt. Cobalt I talked about. Vaimes... you could make the case that he's dropping off, but he's still making tonally town!Vaimes posts when he does post. If he's a wolf here he's playing a fantastic game.

Vira... actually had a couple posts early toDay that I squinted at. I only have the one wolf game that of hers that I know, and that's maybe a read I shouldn't be so comfortable with? A lot of my conviction on her comes from reading her and her QT in Owner's Market. I felt like I kind of had a grip on how she thinks about the game in a way that would pretty hard to fake as town, and she hit a ton of those markers D1. So I don't really feel like revisiting that.

Atum is whatever; he's posting wildly differently than the game where I was scum with him, and everyone says he's town. Getting a read beyond that would require a level of thought about him that I'm not super interested in at the moment. Hopefully one of us will be dead by the time that would become a matter of necessity.

3) Jarizok could be lying about owner here and we're basing a ton of worlds of owner being scum. Pretty unlikely, as owner's play around EoD was borderline gamethrowing if town.

So, yeah.

Game could be hard in a few ways. It could even be hard in all those ways. I just don't have any strong feelings that any of the bricks making up this chain of claims / metatownreads on The Quartet are really super wrong. So like...

PoE, pew pew pew pew, keep picking at things.

That's where I'm at.

 

I actually had a thought about the Delphine-Miner w/w world, but it can wait until tomorrow. Koalas is probably just still a wolf there.

 

That's the post I've been wanting to see from you and I have to say I agree with a lot of what you're saying here.

Like I've spent a lot of time thinking about this game in the last 24 hours and thinking "This should be easy, lots of clears, lots of people I town read, plenty of people I think aren't W/W together; I should be able to piece the exact scum team together" and then just....not, like at all. The only thing I'm getting around ever way I look at the game is that I just really struggle to find worlds where Koalas isn't scum here.

There's actually no world where Fable/Fluff are not legitimate here outside of Fable guessing Fluff as Priest instantly as mafia or Owner dying as a Holy which is not the case. So I think it's safe to drop any sort of paranoia here.

I find your analysis of Delphine/Miner pretty spot on with where I am there, I don't read anything that Miners done in this game town but I have a strong town read on Delphine, her snowing me and them being scum together isn't impossible but what I keep getting around to when I consider this world is that Delphine/Miner had to have this fake claim prepped at game start. And if Miners hoping that Delphines fake claim is going to get them deep into the game surely he does something, literally anything to contribute to the game himself before she claims or even afterwards. I also find the way that Delphine actually went about the crumbing and dropping the information very genuine. It's just ugh, hard to believe as a real world and I'm pretty sure this world isn't the case.

The world for Cobalt to be scum involves scum haunting me, seeing a bunch of votes drop on me knowing there's a decent chance that I've been guiltied and then stating a watcherman innocent on me, it just doesn't feel right. Like it's them intentionally blocking a mslynch they need right now after losing a member D1 and Cobalts tone throughout the entire catch up intiailly and catch up at the start of D2 reads very pure. I really don't think it's likely he's mafia here and if he him making this move just condems his partners and we'll probably catch him later in the game so I'm pretty happy to just assume he's town for now.

So all up I think your "Maybe it's a hard world re; fake claims" to be unlikely, I'm pretty content not going down that rabbit hole anytime soon. I also think Jari lying about Owners alignment is like, never a thing here, the way she went down, the roles we still have inside the game and the type of person he is I don't see it happening. I can see scum maybe letting Jari claim the role with honest results, I don't think they give it to him and say "Lie about Owners alignment" becasue yeah, that never ends well for him.

The hard world where there's scum inside Vaimes/Vira/Atum is where I'm concerned about right now.

I've gone through Vira recently and think there's a lot that points towards her being town so I'm willing to give her a pass for at least a day or two but I'm nowhere near the "Locktown" read that I had on her initially or that I thought I'd have after just watching her in Marketplace. My concern is that it seems like she's posting reads when people bring up that she hasn't done them, I don't see a lot of assertiveness with anything from her here.

I've also gone through Atum and had a decentish town read on him and think him claiming BoD increases the odds he's town here but it just feels like bar his entrance to the game there's nearly no game solving from him or attempts to whatsoever and the fall of there is something that makes sense from scum that's been hard town read. It's something I've been hoping he'd address himself for a while but it's not happened yet.

Vaimes, uh, Vaimes. This is my biggest ????? read still inside the game, Owners comment to Vaimes points towards him being town, Vaimes's vote switch to Owner looks good but I just don't see what you're saying in regards to "He's making tonally Town!Vaimes posts", his "I would claim scum right now and not get lynched for it" was him repeating what he said in Jurrassic Park almost verbatim and it felt like him attempting to "replicate" what he was town read for there here despite a huge difference in the context about it. I still have trouble with his "Could see this as distancing" comment re; Me/Rubicon from earlier, I find a lot of his lack of game solving and "I don't need to do anything here" type attitude as him just coasting in a way that makes plenty of sense for him as scum. Like I have no intention of voting him anytime soon but the strong town reads on him outside of interaction reasons here just leave me baffled right now. I'm..not seeing it at all and I feel like a lot of my issues with 'piecing together the game' can be resolved if he's mafia here.

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And hmm, shows how quiet a day today it as work if I can type a post that long.

---------- Post automerged at 03:19 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:55 AM ----------

TLDR; I'm pretty comfortable just calling Fluff/Fable/Delphine/Miner/Cobalt town for now, I think getting too paranoid re; unlikely worlds involving them are just not worth it at the moment and Owners just always mafia here. I'm happy to give Atum/Vira some room to breathe here with hope they do something that really 100% locks them in as town so I don't have to worry too much there since they're very probably just town but I'm not feeling the same way about Vaimes that you or most others are.

 

regfan thoughts? https://forums.darklordpotter.net/showpost.php?p=987895&postcount=1760

 

I'm biased in that I think Wacos town here and actually find his personal stance on your actions to be one of the more reasonable ones in that he acknowledges that you're not directly counter claiming him from the get go and that your "claim" doesn't make you mafia. I also just went through the ~250 posts again and I think it's a case of Cobalt / Vaimes just "Having you in their scum pool" rather than just "TMI'ing, the weirdest stance on the whole thing probably comes from Rubicon and even that doesn't come across as him having too much information, plus I've got Rubicon/Waco as pretty unaligned so I don't think that ever becomes a thing.

I mean I get where you're coming from in a "This could lead towards fruitful information" type thing, I just don't think it does in this specific case.

 

Nurse Koalas reporting in. I hate all of you.

Waco has yet to respond to 1217. Unless its his next post I'm going to assume he's been instructed not to.

I'll be breaking down what a terrible, and telling, post 1677 is when I get home this evening. Stay tuned.

 

Not quite sure how to best direct the nurse-usage.

Also still thinking a mass-claim might be useful.

 

On Waco: He still thinks I'm a witch here though and he has me strongly linked to kalas, because kalas has made low quality posts all game and some of those posts were about me.

He laughably ignores the greater context behind this post and frames it as Kalas trying to get me into the town-circle (ignoring entirely that it's on a false premise he would know to be false if we were scumbuddies). Think about the implication on that and get back to me.

Kalas is making it hard on us right now if he is actually town.

On the other 3: Yes, all 3 had me in their scum pool to start with (as far as I can tell) and not one of them moved me one iota in response to something that had essentially the entire rest of the thread reading me as town. It's hard to believe lightning would strike 3 times in the same spot.

 

Sorry my existence is making you put in slightly more effort Kai /s

 

I liked Wacos point about Koalas's Jan read inside #1677, it's not the strongest thing but it makes sense. I'd agree that his assessment of Koalas's read on you is very weak though everyone's on you is and I don't necessarily think it's one that makes it likely that you're actually linked. Overall I'm fairly meh on the post but have liked several others of his enough that I'm not interested in lynching there today.

I don't find Cobalts read on you suspicious at all, he's not wrong in that it looked like you attempting to pull him back into the PoE pool and lets be honest, that's what you were doing and it being due to you thinking he's genuinely scum is fine and all but from his POV it's pretty understandable why he'd scum read you. Rubicons read was weird and I can see it being a scummy one but I don't think it's anything to do with "TMI", I'd throw Vaimes's read on you in a similar boat.

I'm pretty much in a situation where if I had the ability to lynch two people and be relatively certain I hit at least 1, very possibly 2 scum I'd burn Koalas and Rubicon. In fact it's quite plausible that logically there's more things that point towards Rubicon being scum than anyone else.

 

The point isn't that they're all (and are) scumreading me. The point is that not one of them moved their read on me at all in-response to events - it's possible that they all independently came to that view, but I think it's more likely that one or more of them already knew that I wasn't the inquisitor.

Look at these reactions from people without additional knowledge and compare/contrast.

Reactions from Vaimes

Reaction from Cobalt

Reaction from Rubicon

 

Yeah, have spent most of my time in the thread tonight looking into that {Owner, Jarizok, Waco} interaction burst early D1 (and man is the difference there stark, seems slightly unaligned indicative for both of them) + Waco vs. Kalas stuff recently. The fact that his "favorite" part of the Kalas case is the Kai stuff is strange to me. His initial Kai read lacked depth, but I thought the "I talked about Kai as much as I deserved to" thing was actually pretty genuine & that the read in general is just as plausibly TMI / that if he's gonna go out of his way to give on a buddy as opposed to just asking them a question he'd be able to put more words to it.

 

I will note that having gone over it again I think Cobalt is the most genuine.

 

Vaimes's read on Waco/Owner not being knowingly aligned bc of Waco fluffing with Owner right after she's getting pressured for fluffing is p clever IMO. I don't know that I agree that his level of suspicion of her throughout the day is, though (I think it'd stick out for him to put her above FoS level in his initial reads).