I thought about this already actually, heh.

I think Jan was Judge and possibly Rubicon is the promoted Apprentice Judge as scum. Judge as a fake claiming Witch or the dumped witch role is dumb but could happen.

The major issue is that you're not trusted enough for this to go though.

The potential outcomes are:
1. You're town (or scum), Judge is dead and Rubicon isn't acting Judge. You lynch Kalas (or someone realistic).
2. You're town, Judge is alive and Rubicon is town. Judge lynches you. Rubicon gets blamed probably.
3. You're town, and Witch!Rubicon is acting as Judge or one of his buddies is Judge, they'll kill Fluff and insist they're the role that they claimed.
2. You're scum and Judge is dead. You lynch Fluff and blame Rubicon.

1 is whatever, 2 is bad, 3 & 4 are notably worse than the status quo since we're already essentially in a 50/50 between you and Rubicon (or whoever) but fluff is alive.

---------- Post automerged at 07:57 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:56 PM ----------

the last 2 is meant to be a 4, obviously.

 

I'm not really for the Peeping Judge plan at all.

Still advocating plan #VaimesshootsKoalasandwelynchAtumwithhimvestingFluff.

Newcomb - RE; World where Vaimes is scum

Spoiler

It'd be Owner + Koalas + Vaimes + 2. I've removed the 'clears' and Jarizok, leaves the following players;

Atum
Fontisian
KaiDASH?
Rubicon
The Waco Kid
Vira

I agree with you that Vaimes/Fonti early game interaction and conversation about Miner not reading like partners as well as Vaimes's entire "Vaimes 1, Fonti 0" also points in that manner. Happy to say probably not W/W.

I find it unlikely that Vaimes/Rubicon are partners too given Rubicons whole "Your meta is so easy to read" "Which posts" and Rubicon pulling up posts, that just feels so out there and unlikely for them to do in front of a bunch of people that generally read Vaimes well. I'm pretty happy to call them not W/W.

Vaimes's scum read on Kai and him attacking Fonti for that read, then Kai attacking Vaimes for "TMI" and Vaimes's whole "I'd say welcome back to the POE but you never really left" thing feels like it probably doesn't happen in that way between partners? It's weaker but probably not W/W?

I don't really have anything that points him as not W/W with Atum/Waco/Vira so technically 2 of those could be it? But that doesn't even feel right either. This hasn't really got me anywhere I don't think but welcome to my head I guess?

---------- Post automerged at 05:07 AM ---------- Previous post was at 05:03 AM ----------

Can we lynch Fontisian for waking up to steal #2000? Only partially joking here.

---------- Post automerged at 05:19 AM ---------- Previous post was at 05:07 AM ----------

6AM where Vaimes is? He might be up for Koalas.

fontisian & KaiDASH, where's your heads at re; Vaimes pew pewing Koalas when he wakes up? I think the odds of Koalas being mafia here are extraordinarily high, he's effectively had no actual content posts inside the last ~24 hours and his avoidance of activating his power so far doesn't come across as town-y at all. Then we can still lynch Atum and vest Fluff.

 

I wish I had an answer to this that I really felt good about beyond Owner/Kalas/probably Rubicon/X/X feeling like the right world. When I start putting chains of names together it mostly gives me the feeling that I don't have the right assumptions about the game cohesively enough to be able to get my brain to compute that? Like, I see you feel somewhat similarly to me in that regard. I'm trying to anchor off of you/Newcomb's stuff from a few hours ago. I'm trying to stop worrying so much about being wrong to the point that I can't form complete sentences. I, uh, yeah.

 

That seems fine.

 

So you're saying scum were like; "nah, let's not aim for priest N1, we can kill the judge!"?

 

Delphine - It's reassuring that I'm not the only one in that boat but is there any stances you feel reasonably comfortable taking town reads wise? Like who do you think is probably town and can be mostly ruled out here?

This isn't what he's saying at all. We know for a fact that Jan was Judge or Spiritualist, scum were obviously aiming for neither of those roles, they probably thought he was the priest and was wrong. His "Jan was probably the judge" stance is based around him thinking scum wouldn't drop that role...which I don't really agree with but isn't something worth spending much time on.

 

But he's saying Rubi is scum apprentice. He would have known Judge was the judge before killing him...

---------- Post automerged at 13:11 ---------- Previous post was at 13:10 ----------

Jan was*

Oh nevermind, Rubi claimed apprentice to me. Geez, I need to think these things through

 

It's plausible but doesn't actually matter.

 

I'm heading to bed, I should be back before deadline but can't make any promises. Looks like we currently have 11 on Koalas while only needing 9 so safe for me to move to Atum in case we do go through with the plan on killing both today and having Fluff receive a vest that way. If you badly need me @me, it normally sends me an email which I have on SMS notifications due to work anyway so there's a good chance I'll instantly see it when I check my phone.

Unvote, Vote: Atum

 

Killing atum before fonti and/or rubicon seems like insanity to me.

 

It's less that it's Atum and it's more that he provides Fluff with a vest whereas they do not; plus I touched on why I think he's plausible to be scum inside #1999 so it feels like a win/win type lynch.

 

It feels like you only think he's a witch because you don't wanna be wrong on anyone else.

That's not a good reason.

 

Huh, I feel like you've missed 90% of that post. Peoples reactions towards his claim overall feel like it makes more sense if we're living in a world where he's scum here. His massive drop off in content and game solving from pregame -> to being town read from it -> afterwards is a rather huge scum tell right here in that there's a lots of scum motivation towards it and very little reason for him as town to not even bother trying to piece this together. We also have a significant gain if he's town and we lynch him here in that it gives Fluff a vest, that means mafia are going to be in a much tougher position moving forward in determining night kills rather than just y'know shooting Fluff tonight and him dying.

---------- Post automerged at 07:15 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:14 AM ----------

Anyway I should stop checking this and just go to bed.

 

The point is that Atum's in the POE, he has a useful role to lynch if he's town and if he's scum then obviously he's scum.

Atum's exact alignment is relatively unimportant for this play.

 

My Rubicon post was here:

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but it appeared to me that atum being as active as he was in the beginning was actually a surprise to some people indicating that he usually is rather low effort so the fact that he's fallen back to that doesn't really do anything for me. As for "well it'll be fine even if he is a villager cuz he can protect fluff" that's the kind of logic I hate, you should always be trying to lynch the most likely witch not do a hail mary and go "meh it's fine" if it doesn't work out.

Now I'm not saying atum can't be a witch and I think if nothing changes atum always gets lynched later on because you can't keep dead weight you're unsure about around late game but at this moment I can think of 3/4 better lynches that are more likely to hit a witch.

 

Stupid question regarding the PT test we were talking about earlier, if the peeping tom visits someone, does it say you were visited by xxx or visted bby the PT?

 

I don't know Atums meta very well (Never played with him) so I can't comment on that much but I thought I remembered them saying that high activity wasn't his scum game and well since his initial burst he's not been high activity? But ignore "activity" and look at "scumhunting" since my iggest qualm I have with him by far is that I just don't see scumhunting from him since, well his first few posts. Like what's he done bar that period that looks town other than complained about how easily he was town read? Nothing substantial.

But Kai puts it better than I can, Atum right now is just the mechanically optimal lynch to make, unless you're outright willing to state that you're able to rule him out of being mafia entirely (Which you're not) there's absolutely no reason not to consider voting him today since we'll never get a chance where mslynching = having the priest get protection again.

 

@Reg, Atum in general is a fairly low activity player. He had a couple of spammy/high activity surges on D1 as town once or twice. His scum meta referenced is from WH5(?) where he kinda flaked as scum!assasin

---------- Post automerged at 08:41 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:40 AM ----------

Not sure when else he's actually drawn mafia that I remember

 

I'm doneeeeee with secondary education forever