I think I have to add waco in as the fourth. The fifth I would put as either jari, newcomb or kai.

The Newcomb world is irrelevant, because we always lynch him in final 4 or 3.

I don't think Vira can be with kalas. I think Atum and von are always town. And I believe in cobalt and delphine.

---------- Post automerged at 11:33 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:32 PM ----------

Woop woop, now we're talking! If you think Rubicon is scum either way, join me on him.

---------- Post automerged at 11:34 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:33 PM ----------

Though I do not ever want to lynch atum, if he is going to be lynched this game, it is important that he is lynched Today, when his death will mean the most. If anyone thinks they /may/ vote for Atum at a later Day, vote for him now.

 

You don't see worlds where fontisian is a witch on her own? I didn't get the impression that your fontisian case depended on my alignment.

 

Okay listen, I know townreading Atum is the popular thing to do but the fact that he went after Regfan with my existing claim and completely failed to consider that it would HAVE to mean we're w/w if Reg is a witch, just seems like a blatantly crappy error of omission to make as town. It just looks more like flailing for no good reason.

---------- Post automerged at 11:35 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:34 PM ----------

You're late to the Rubicon scumread party, just in time for it to be convenient for you. Hmm.

I'm gonna make you work for it.

 

I'm heading out for a few hours, hoping Newcombs come back and addressed 2138 (I think that was the post number) when I get back because I really think that best summarises where my head is at right now and want his input on it.

Cobalt - I don't think Fontisian is the move today at all, I'm pretty confident that Koalas is scum and I don't think Fontisian/Koalas was W/W based on like 5 different interactions they had together and the way they handled each other. I also town read several things that Fontisian has done this game, I can go into detail on this if you're really insistent on her being mafia but if you're tossing up between Fontisian/Rubicon I think Rubicon is the better vote. That said I'm still pretty much on board for the #LynchAtumVestFluff plan here. Wouldn't mind hearing your confidence level on Delphine/Miner being town because uh, yeah. Just wouldn't mind hearing your thoughts.

 

Then you should vote for him and Atum should try to defend himself to your satisfaction.

 

I probably will wind up doing this for the sheer +EV purposes of the extra life.

 

I think my biggest shift in reads at the moment is that I'm currently more willing to consider Delphine/Miner as w/w than Cobalt/Reg.

I'm pushing around names on the table and I just have a hard time making this game quite work.

Owner/Koalas/Waco/[1 of fonti, Kai, Rubicon]/Jarizok?

Let's say I trust Reg/Fable on the Owner/Jarizok not w/w thing.

So take him out. Can't put in Vaimes, he can't be with fonti OR Kai OR Rubicon.

Vira? Atum?

I kinda think Atum's Reg thing was a town thing.

Vira? She'd have to be posting out of her mind, IMO. The combination of... vulnerability/aggression she has over the course of the game is pretty great if so.

Ehhh. This isn't actually going anywhere.

Think I just need to step back and clear my head for a bit.

---------- Post automerged at 08:37 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:36 PM ----------

I didn't quite make it to that post Reg, let me look at it now.

 

I...just don't see Koalas/Rubicon/Waco being a trio this game, I can bring up quotes and interactions that just doesn't seem right for this if you want. Also I don't think we're ever seeing a world where Kai/Waco are a scum team and Jari continues to be someone I just really don't think is mafia here, same goes for Newcomb.

QFT.

 

Okay, cool. I almost keep forgetting that I have you as a definitive sounding board because I can feel safe with you.

I'll trust your assessment on Fonti for now, and I think Atum should be the lynch today for mechanical reasons.

It's funny that you bring up Delphine / Miner confidence, because, did I start a post about that? Or did I say something about that in one of my catchup posts? I think I started to type something about it and then I saw something else and made a post on that instead

See where I'm at is this. I want the game to be easy enough for us not to have to reconsider Delphine/Miner. To that end, I say we play the game as though they're solid until we have a reason to believe otherwise. Namely, Fluff investigating one or the other tonight, although that may not do much good and he'd probably get a more accurate result elsewhere.

The problem is, I don't see Delphine being a witch, and if she is, it's definitely Delphine / Miner on the team in which case a witch is buffed, we have no Judge and all the other clears we have mean jack shit.

I simply do not want to tinfoil that far for now, I've liked how Miner's been posting recently, so I'm gonna just say we shelf this and stay confident for now.

I really think it's just as easy as worldbuilding from the PoE.

---------- Post automerged at 11:40 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:39 PM ----------

Unvote

Lynch: Atum

 

Vote:Rubicon

 

Those quotes would be appreciated.

 

Hmm, actually.......

Now that you mention it and I think about it a little harder, I think scum is more likely to push a Regfan / Cobalt world than just taking on Reg. It could be that failing to consider Reg being a witch means that I'm also a witch is simply a dumbtell.

 

Fable, by voting for anyone other than Atum, you are saying that you never want to lynch him and are certain he is town. Are you agreeing to that?

---------- Post automerged at 11:43 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:42 PM ----------

Yes. I believe it is.

---------- Post automerged at 11:44 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:43 PM ----------

Um, I actually have felt that Miner has seemed more town when he's posted Today. I think he just reacted poorly to the pressure Day 1. I feel very confident in him and Dephine being town.

 

Sure.

/10char

 

Just gonna go through this point by point.

Fluff/Fable, yeah obv. Cobalt... I think he's town. I've been fooled by him before going on tone, but I think I'm seeing a difference here.

Delphine/Miner I think honestly is more than 5% right now. Like not super likely or anything, but I'm actively thinking about it.

" I do not see more than two names inside Fontisian/KaiDASH/Koalas/Rubicon/The Waco Kid that can work together as scum. That said I do not think there's less than two mafia inside this pool. Pretty much I think there's /exactly/ two mafia inside those five names."

Tend to agree with this. I buy Kai/Rubicon not w/w. I have a more shaky not w/w on fonti/Kai. You're gonna have to run me through fonti/Koalas not w/w.

Fonti/Waco is possible, yeah.

Rubicon/Waco I have to take another look at, I think.

Waco/Kai would be.... odd, yeah. It's not 100% crazy, but it's not something I'd actively push.

Your 2 scum in 5 names...

Like, I'm town. I think Vaimes is town. I'm not as convinced on Jarizok as you.

Jarizok/Vira? Jarizok/Atum? Vira/Atum? I mean that last one... I really don't think I'm /that/ wrong.

What I'm getting out of this is that I need to run through my Vaimes read.

 

Fable

Do you recognize the potential benefits that lynching a town Atum has for us?

 

Sorry to be insistent, but this really isn't something to joke around with. I do not want to save Atum now only to see him get lynched three Days down the line. Are you certain?

 

I don't see how anyone can look at Atum's attempted Reg lynch and think scum.

 

Cobalt - I'm a player that normally hates exploring tin-foil worlds too much and going down the rabbit hole in regards to claimed players being mafia so I understand your stance on Miner/Delphine a lot. That said I'm just...not finding my world building is getting me anywhere that solid when removing them from the equation and that points me back towards reassessing them.

Like I know that you've said you town read some of what Miners done recently but I don't, at all and I thought that when I questioned Delphine earlier about her reads and stances on the game she just agreed with me that she's having difficulty piecing it together (I mean it's reassuring if she's town) could make sense as mafia, wasn't anything really original from her in it. It's still like a 5% world, not something we should consider a lot right now but I don't think it's something to be entirely discounted anymore.

I think there's absolutely 1-2 scum inside the 'town read players' (Not necessarily the claimed ones) and I'm having difficulty identifying which it is which is why I'm so for the Atum lynch plan, if you have a strong read on Vaimes/Vira/Newcomb etc. I'd be interested in hearing them.

 

I vote for people I think are witches.

It's that simple, if you wanna do some trick play based on mechanics that's fine but you don't need me for that and I won't be a part of it.