Do you seriously believe Atum's scum?

 

Yes, I genuinely think there's a very reasonable chance he's mafia here.

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Like with how the EOD is playing I could see worlds like;

Owner/Koalas/Rubicon/Atum + 1? and
Owner/Koalas/Delphine/Miner/Atum making plenty of sense.

I also really can't comprehend how we're not making the optimal mechanical play re; lynching him and him vesting Fluff if he's town here. Like if we mslynch elsewhere it's devastating if Koalas was scum (Which I think is a pretty fair assumption) since we'd mslynch + have Fluff die.

 

I can't see scum ever making the argument he used against you. Didn't you start off wanting to lynch him only because you wanted his vest on Fluff?

 

I mean, it's not like it's far more likely for Cobalt/Reg to be witches than me/Delphine.

 

What's wrong with it? Other than the Jarizok wagon being ick?

 

IF YOU THINK RUBICON IS A WITCH THEN WHAT'S THE PROBLEM?!

 

I think Atum's about 90% to be town here, and I think lynching him is win/win.

If we're going to mislynch this game, now is the time when it's just as bad for witches.

Plus, that 10%.

 

I don't feel confident enough about anyone else being mafia to lynch them and take that risk and I fiind it's unlikely I'll ever be at a situation where I can rule Atum out entirely given PoE and world-building here is just pointing at him too.

Wanted to lynch BoP before we even had anyone claim the role yet because it was optimal play -> He claimed it and I hesitated because I didn't think mafia would make that claim and liked the way he did it -> Mass-claim finishes and that became a null tell when we found out was removed -> Did lots of worldbuilding and attempting to solve this and it constantly points towards him -> Elaborated on my concerns with him and what I think of his that makes sense as scum.

I think his "argument against me" makes plenty of sense as scum.

 

Vira, given this sequence where you seemed to confuse Jari & Rubi, and I don't see any other reads comments on Jari since your wall which in Jari's case was kinda empty of AI stuff, where are you currently on Jarizok?

Does your confusion between Jari & Rubicon mean that the stuff you didn't like that you thought was from Rubicon make you downgrade Jarizok. Do you think Jarizok and Rubicon make sense together

 

Lol planning to mislynch.

 

I mean, I get that it's the easy way out, yeah.

I just know myself. The same way you think Atum will tintoil Reg in endgame, I know I'll eventually start to tinfoil Atum here.

 

This is just....all kinds of gross.

Delphine holding off and not actually throwing down a vote here is ???, Miner being on Jarizok and his actions throughout this day phase is concerning. I find Rubicon/Atums stances on each other questionable.

I don't have a real read on Rubicon other than "I like his effort and gamesolving attempts" and I'd feel pretty fucking bad mslynching him here in a situation where if we mslynch him Fluff just dies and we lose a lot of the lead we'd gained, that does not happen with Atum, either we hit scum, boom, great, we can solve the game based on that. Or we mslynch and Fluff becomes immune from the kill. I understand you're playing from a "I never ever want to mslynch" perspective, we're different players in that regard. I'm playing from a "I want to play optimally mechanically and increase our chances of winning in general" one.

 

Yeah I don't really think it's a big deal if fluff dies tbh.

 

I keep staring at #1000-#1018 (Delphine's claim like there's something there I'm not seeing.
Regfan: Re our Newcomb discussion: Does #1015 really make sense in a Newcomb/owner world, unless scum has the GD or GD apprentice at least?

 

Hmm.

Mislynching anyone but Atum is terrible. Mislynching Atum is merely meh.

Makes sense, I guess.

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With Haunts, my main value is as a townfirm that scum will eventually have to NK, and that won't be lynched.

 

Best lynch for town right now is Atum by far.

Gives witches a mechanical clusterfuck, and that's a win in my book.

 

Fable - Like before roles were even distributed I was weighing up the overall gain via intentionally mslynching D1 with certain claim strategies enacted to take control of angel chat vs actually trying to lynch scum, overall didn't seem worth it every way I ran through it. That should tell you how different type of players we are.

But this situation here, lynching Atum is 100% the correct move.

It gives Fluff a vest if we mslynch meaning mafia have to waste a night kill there, that means that we gain control of another directed KP via the hunter shot. It means we get at least one more investigation and the argument that haunted etc. decreases the strength of a priest is fair but it doesn't make the report worthless, a guilty will be correct at least 66% of the time tonight.

 

Even given the haunts there's still value in the priest check I think, given that there are so many possibilities you could go for that scum would have to guess.

 

Jari is currently in my ‘to reread’ category. I remember I was scumreading him on D1, but I can’t remember what for. He hasn’t done much since and basically came into the thread to park his vote on Atum then peaced out. I don’t remember any interactions between Jari and Rubicon, but my memory barely exists so I’ll look for them on my reread.