^ Also, I thought we weren't going to consider worlds until Jari comes back with the results.

 

We're not, or at least shouldn't be. I've got a worlds post where I've narrowed it down to very few possibilities that I'm waiting on Jari to actually post, I'll be responding to Rubicon then too.

 

Did Rubicon copy/paste this from witch chat?

 

So if jar doesn't show up for a day or two we just do nothing all day?

 

There's plenty "Outside of posting" things to do right now. And if he doesn't show up that long he's just scum conceeding and he gets instantly lynched; not a huge concern. I'd bet on him showing up in ~12 hours regardless of his alignment here though.

 

I see no particular gain in waiting for Jarizok before talking about worlds.

In any case, that's a weak ass jab at me. I hope the whole day isn't going to be me saying stuff and people being all "neener neener, you're just sayiing that because you're a WITCH HAHAHA."

/headdesk

 

If he doesn't show up for that long it's pretty telling in another way I expect.

He's on Euro time, so hopefully we'll see him in a few hours

 

Vote: Waco

---------- Post automerged at 10:22 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:10 PM ----------

I'm kind of regretting that we changed the rules to prevent Angels from blocking the Hunter shot

---------- Post automerged at 10:24 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:22 PM ----------

Who does Jarizok even think is mafia right now?

---------- Post automerged at 10:26 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:24 PM ----------

I read Vaimes' ISO in the MU 9:2:2 and it made me kinda hesitate on my read on him this game, but not enough to do anything about it I think.

Also GH was impressed with your wolf game, Vaimes.

---------- Post automerged at 10:27 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:26 PM ----------

Do you think it's okay if we just lose to a Reg/fonti/Cobalt world here? I don't really see that ever being a win.

 

Um. Slight spoiler of one of where I'm at but you telling me I can't just do this;

2. Owner/Koalas/Newcomb/Vaimes + 1
I'm playing as Vaimes can't be scum unless Newcomb is from hereon out, if it's somehow a case of Vaimes!Scum & Newcomb!Town I'm washing my hands of the loss; willing to just take the stance that if he's scum and both Fonti & Newcomb are mafia it's not on me.

 

Is Cobalt town or does he just sound town?

Like throw out every single claim, who do I believe is behaviorally town?

Vaimes.

Vira... ish. The obsession with VC makes more sense after Owner's Market.

That's... it, I think?

I can't use the "Reg wouldn't tryhard so long as a wolf," I know that's wrong.

Cobalt reminds me more of his "hahahha you're wrong" town persona than his "hmm interesting let me consider that' witch persoan but there are enough elements of the second one that, ehhh.

Fluff's whatever, not trying so >rand town.

Fable is... lack of agenda sums it up pretty well? Well, not lack of agenda exactly but. Lack of sliminess maybe.

fontisian lacks a certain something. I had her as my queued target last night. I don't think she's really.... incisive enough, if that makes sense.

Kai isn't being enough of a shitgoblin to be town, IMO.

Waco and Jarizok are behaviorally not town.

Rubicon kind of is behaviorally town w/r/t effort. He's mafia for fence-sitting, idk he's taking stances on fonti/Kai but not super /pushing/ them? Does Rubicon push any differently as town/wolf?

Rubicon's like, it almost doesn't even matter how I read him, every single person in this game wants him dead. Do I think he's strongly town enough to defend him? No, not really. So /shrug

Waco's just town. I don't care how stubborn this is, his read on me is not real. It just isn't.

Kai's read list felt crafted, kinda.

Delphine is solving the game about as much as she did in JPM.

Miner's hella lurky and eh carefree-ish.

So like. What are we even doing?

Either actually push Miner/Delphine or Cobalt/Reg, or just shrug chaingun the PoE.

Still. Like, after all that.

---------- Post automerged at 10:37 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:36 PM ----------

I mean, I'll eat that one, sure.

Kinda like how I'm basically leaning on Jan's Delphine read.

I'll state for the record that this isn't the hardest I've ever townread Vaimes. I just think he's town.

 

Koalas is a dead witch.

Atum is also dead, but not a witch.

Expect more things soon.

 

That's what I was kind of expecting to see / waiting on.

Here we go;

Fluff & Fable are mechanically cleared.

I'm willing to lose if Cobalts mafia here, I just don't see him making the play of knowing that I'm likely haunt-guilted and then claiming watcherman to me after losing a partner D1 already. It's a play that makes no sense for him to do as scum for several reasons that I've already gone into. I can go into these again if people need but he's not someone I'll ever consider as mafia here.

I'm pretty much willing to lose to Vira regardless of Koalas's alignment, if she's scum here the odds of me ever lynching her are like 0.000001%. If anyone at all thinks there's a possibility of this read being wrong they're going to need to let me know combined with a serious of strong reasons because there's a lot of posts from her I just don't see coming from scum.

I'm pretty confident in Fontisian being town regardless of Koalas's alignment, there's a lot of things of hers here I struggle to see coming from mafia and I don't think EOD1 plays out that manner with Owner/Fontisian together and given Owners confirmed mafia that's a very good look for Fontisian. If Koalas is mafia like I think he is she's just lock town based on the interactions I've posted of them not being W/W and with the investigation although I have noted Rubicons point re; the "Likelihood of being investigated/haunted" I'm just willing to outright state that I'm losing to her if she's scum here.

That leaves me looking inside Rubicon/Jari/Waco/Newcomb/Kai/Vaimes/Delphine/Miner for the remaining scum here.

I'm playing it as if Koalas is scum we're in the following worlds;

1. Owner/Koalas/Miner/Delphine +1
This is a world I'm growing increasingly worried about and very much intend on spending a large portion of this day phase looking at. With the early pressure on Miner in the day phase I can see scum coming up with the plan of "Soft oracle and clear him at EOD", it's a plan that pulls two scum out of the PoE, when doing this having someone that's town read be the person to make the claim like Delphine would be logical too. This world is far less tin-foily as I'd considered earlier and there's a few uh, things that I'll go into later pending some reading.

2. Owner/Koalas/Newcomb/Vaimes + 1
I'm playing as Vaimes can't be scum unless Newcomb is from hereon out, if it's somehow a case of Vaimes!Scum & Newcomb!Town I'm washing my hands of the loss; willing to just take the stance that if he's scum and both Fonti & Newcomb are mafia it's not on me.

3. Owner/Koalas/Newcomb/Kai + 1
I don't think Koalas doesn't vest Kai unlss Newcomb the DOB is his partner and him making that move creates autoloss if their partner gets lynched. I also have Kai fitting zero other worlds where Koalas is scum, I'm willing to remove Kai from the list outside of this that invovle Koalas.

So that means I'm at the above 3 worlds and the 1 below;

4. Owner/Koalas + 3 of Rubicon/Jarizok/Waco/Newcomb
I look at that and think huh in that very few if any scum teams makes sense in there too but I want to be a little more cautious in calling worlds in here impossible moving forward.

There's also the world where Jari is lying about Koalas's flip.

5. Owner/Jarizok + 3 of Rubicon/Jarizok/Waco/Newcomb/Kai
Find this highly unlikely in that I'm just very confident that Koalas is mafia here.

 

Reg how am I looking on our pregame witch team call?

We both had owner/Koalas and Jan as a miss, right? I forget the other tow.

 

You've already won unless Vaimes is mafia and Waco isn't I think? Which is probably not the case. You had Koalas, I did not (though I'd probably have taken him if you didn't). We both had Miner, that's still possible, we both had Jan which was wrong and we both had Owner which was right.

I had Fluff which was wrong and you had Waco which is probably right.

 

Oh we both had Miner.

And only I had Koalas. Yoink.

I'll admit, if you're town and Vaimes if mafia here, I'll be kind of embarrassed. Don't think that's super likely though. Like, if I had to shoot one of you and the game ended if I hit town, I'd shoot you.

---------- Post automerged at 11:17 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:14 PM ----------

Like, straight-up I think if you're town here you'd be ride-or-die with me and the times you've felt like you're doubting me have felt really off. Like that "really need to see some stances from you today" still bugs me.

Waco's progression on me is worse and that's why I'm voting him, but like.

Idk, just base-level I feel like the game has felt not clear enough to be that it has to be either Delphine/Miner or you/Cobalt. If this were an easy game, it would have felt easier. It could be I'm just having an off game and there is /probably/ some of that going on given me coming into this game after the Reunion and trying to keep up with the MU champs as a juror, but like. That's how I feel.

---------- Post automerged at 11:18 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:17 PM ----------

Speaking of which: I'm going to be drastically less around during the beginning of the week. Work + this game + trying to intelligently follow 3 games at MU at once is just. A lot.

 

I kind of think Delphine may have read a WJ post about me and be attempting to fake a few things excessively that she knows I've got a weak spot for town reaidng. Know that sounds pretty tin-foil but uhh, I think the Miner/Delphine world is very worth considering right here in that if they are scum we're going to need to require an extra lynch to get through the team and they have control of an extra kill.

If you're willing to own the blame if Vaimes is mafia I'm 100% ruling him out of any worlds that don't involve you. I expect you to do the same with my Vira read, she's absolutely never scum here.

 

I want one more game Day trying to read Vaimes before I take it to that level. I've always said "by the end of D3 I'll be 100% on Vaimes's alignment," I'll put my money where my mouth is there.

The Vira read I'm fine with; I think I have less qualms about Vira than you do with Vaimes. Like, worlds where she's mafia require me to be snowed not just by her but to a degree that I'm just never getting it, I think.

 

The Jan kill just felt wrong in a way that made sense if you're mafia especially since I thought you were almost certainly going to be night killed there and thus I wanted to confirm my read on you before progressing. Like if you're asking me gun to my head what your alignment it - it's town, like it's not even a hard choice. It's just looking at this it doesn't feel easy and I have to consider every avenue. I'm trying to make as few "Strong assumptions" as possible here, just on reads I'd bet the game on.

Like it's pretty obvious I'm trying to some this almost like a puzzle, finding pieces that fit, ruling out ones that don't here and that does require me to consider worlds that involve you here. Like You/Kai is a logical world I can't rule out and the only world where I have Kai inside of.

---------- Post automerged at 01:28 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:28 AM ----------

Happy to give you the day on Vaimes, my attention is mostly going to be on Delphine/Miner & probably Jari/Rubicon/Waco.

 

lynch waco

 

I'm probably not explaining myself properly here Newcomb, but look at it from where I'm sitting right now.

I'd bet on Fluff/Fable/Cobalt/Fonti/Vira containing zero scum.

If you're town then Kai's also town.

That means if you're town we're looking at either;

Jari being scum and lying about Koalas - Find this unlikely, Koaslas was just..scum here.

Jari/Rubicon/Waco - Which isn't impossible but doesn't feel right.

Delphine/Miner + 1 of Rubicon/Waco (They're never with Jari)

So like, if you're town here the most likely thing we're looking at is Delphine/Miner scum, no?

---------- Post automerged at 01:44 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:42 AM ----------

Delphine/Miner/Rubicon probably not a thing with how yesterday played out too?

---------- Post automerged at 01:44 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:44 AM ----------

Like Owner/Koalas/Miner/Delphine/Waco

How does that team feel? To me it feels very very realistic.