Fable is never mafia here - he doesn't make that crumb combined with his like 20 others D1 unless he's sure that Fluff is the priest and if he's sure Fluff is the priest he just shoots him N1. The odds of him working out both the Acolyte and the Priest D1 and making a play with the intent of fake claiming Acolyte just isn't a thing.

I shouldn't even need to spend words to explain this.

---------- Post automerged at 04:50 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:49 AM ----------

And I think Kai's very probably town in that there's only 1 world he's mafia inside of and that world I'm pretty doubtful about so I don't think I want him using his Leeroy here.

 

I still want Kai to kill Delphine. 2 flips is better than 1 and ruling out or confirming Delphine/Miner worlds is a priority.

 

Like I'm with you here, just add Fable and the caveat that Vaimes is only scum if with Newcomb and you're at where I am overall. I even like the consideration of killing Delphine today because I'm pretty much only voting inside Her/You/Rubicon/Waco (There's no point to voting Miner). I just don't think we need Kai to suicide into her for it.

Like talk with me here, what worlds does Kai make sense with you for?

Kai's point about if Koalas was mafia (Which he most certainly was and should be confirmed to you) with him he just gets himself vested and double leeroys so that it take mafia are trading 4 town & the assassin shot for Koalas/Kais deaths rather than mafia getting 0 town & the assassins shot for Koalas's death is a very very logical one.

Kai doesn't consider himself worth more than 4 townies as mafia here as a Leeroy, he knows he's not going to endgame himself, it's a move they make unless he thinks his two partners are going to lose the game for him. I think he makes the move with Miner/Delphine since he only needs them to dodge like 3 lynches, he makes it with Vaimes being mafia since he thinks Vaimes endgames, he only doesn't make it with Newcomb since Newcomb can't endgame.

 

The turnaround on Fluff is indeed noticeable, but the scumteam could have had anyone claim aco. It definately makes sense to make it Fable because of his read turnaround on Fluff.

Making that post just im case could have very well been a team decision if they had a possible priest read on Fluff because there's no downside to it.

 

I think you're getting too tin-foily here Jarizok.

So you're saying they shot Jan & Inquisitor checked him rather than checking a living target? Or they shot him thinking he was the Acolyte to Fluff without just shooting Fluff. And that Fable just somehow managed to constantly crumb to Acolyte the priest D1 starting from right after pregame rather than being the priest, it's pretty uh, moon logic stuff.

Like can you at least play this day phase under the assumption that Fable is just legitimate for me. Please?

 

Kai spelling all of that out himself is my problem. Everyone agreed so it's almost as good as a townfirm. I'd have felt better if someone else brought that up.

I agree that the theory and his individual play make Kai pretty towny, but he fits with Fable/Waco looking at the start of D2.

---------- Post automerged at 12:07 ---------- Previous post was at 12:03 ----------

I'm advocating Kai leeroy Delphine for today, Fable doesn't factor into that. If the flips rule out Delphine/Miner though, we're looking at either my first or my last world. I just don't buy that the complete PoE is scum here. The game never plays out the way it did with that scumteam.

 

Like I guess you could break down where I am exactly in three worlds.

1) Newcombs town; Fluff/Fable/Cobalt/Vira/Fonti are always town. Kai/Vaimes become town due to Newcomb being town. Miner/Delphine are legitimate; Leaves the scum team to be exactly; Jari+Rubicon+Waco

2) Newcombs town; Fluff/Fable/Cobalt/Vira/Fonti are always town. Kai/Vaimes become town due to Newcomb being town. Miner/Delphine are not legitimate; Leaves the scum team to be Miner/Delphine + 1 of Jari/Rubcion/Waco

3) Newcombs mafia; Fluff/Fable/Cobalt/Vira/Fonti are always town. Miner/Delphine are legitimate. Leaves the scum team to be Newcomb + 2 of Jari/Rubicon/Waco/Vaimes/Kai.

---------- Post automerged at 05:12 AM ---------- Previous post was at 05:09 AM ----------

If it's 1) I think we win regardless of how the game plays out from here, they're always dying at some point of time, it's not a world I'm even remotely worried about nor do I think it's super likely that's the exact scum team.

I think 2) is very possible, like very possible here. Also remove Jari from that, it's never ever Miner/Delphine/Jari, like ever. Miner/Delphine/Waco & Miner/Delphine/Rubicon possible though.

I don't think it's 3) since I'm reading Newcomb town here but it's a world where things get pretty messy and I think I lose a lot of the time here, particularly if it is something like Newcomb/Kai or Newcomb/Vaimes. I think I almost have to just accept that I'm not beating some of those scum teams though.

---------- Post automerged at 05:13 AM ---------- Previous post was at 05:12 AM ----------

@Jari - Please, pretty please drop this Fable world. I'm begging you.

It's never a thing.

 

Maybe I'm more willing to accept the tinfoil world because it fits my reads independent of claims, I'll give you that, but I'm just more sure that some kind of claim shenanigans have gone on then ever. Delphine today has made me shift from focusing on one to the other, and you and Cobalt are just town. If you have been pocketing me all along and faked that interaction with Owner and made Cobalt protect you from the priest check... That just didn't happen in my book.

---------- Post automerged at 12:17 ---------- Previous post was at 12:14 ----------

I'll postpone talking about it until tomorrow for you, that's the best I can do.

 

I'm probably going to go over Delphines recent posts & her and Miners ISO's a few more times before bed, maybe will dump my thoughts but I think there's a few key players where I think getting a read on wins the game and I'm probably going to drop back today with the limited time I have and focus on reading rather than posting.

Delphine, I'll take links to your recently completed town and scum games if you got em on hand.

---------- Post automerged at 05:18 AM ---------- Previous post was at 05:18 AM ----------

I'll take it!

---------- Post automerged at 05:22 AM ---------- Previous post was at 05:18 AM ----------

Also I'm probably never lynching Jarizok today unless we think the "Lynch him Fontisian PT's him" is actually a mechanically optimal play here which I don't think is the case, if I'm playing with Newcomb being town and only these 3 worlds exist;

Owner/Koalas/Rubicon/Waco/Jarizok
Owner/Koalas/Rubicon/Miner/Delphine
Owner/Koalas/Waco/Miner/Delphine

Then I'm better of lynching Rubicon or Waco then Jari in every world.

---------- Post automerged at 05:23 AM ---------- Previous post was at 05:22 AM ----------
Newcomb, ftr that's exactly where I'm at if you want to start talking worlds.

 

jarizok what's your explaination for waco counterclaim of my inquisitor soft.

---------- Post automerged at 08:30 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:28 PM ----------

I'm reading jarizok's post and it isn't even internally consistent, like he wrote things then jumped around editing and adding like mad.

 

Vote:Jarizok

I mean if you just wanna claim witch that's fine with me.

 

Your both scum in my most likely world, so it would be an attempt to un-align yourselves. Scum!Waco could have used it to make you town!you gambitting look bad as well, which he did a little bit but he never really pushed it too much. Obviously town!Waco would counter your claim as well.

---------- Post automerged at 12:37 ---------- Previous post was at 12:36 ----------

I did indeed add and edit whenever I had time, I'm posting from work.

 

Like d1 you tunnel me

d2 you do nothing.

d3 you're deciding to tunnel me despite a literal planet's worth of evidence that's a villager.

What are you actually doing to solve the game?

 

I tunneled you? I scumread you and voted to lynch someone else in the end.

D2 with all the claims it made no sense to push you anymore, there were more pressing things to figure out.

Now that the dust is settling I see unlikely world next to unlikely world, so I'm going back to basics, and get OMGUSed for it. No worries though, I promised Reg to not go into it today.

 

I mean most of your posts on d1 were focused on me and you only stopped after delphine claimed and it was obvious there was nothing wrong with me defending miner.

I mean you're acting like there was only the one crumb I left for being acolyte when I left many more than that and they were pointed out a couple times so maybe you should reread the game.

---------- Post automerged at 07:06 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:57 AM ----------

Like jfc it should be obvious jan wasn't the acolyte.

 

Lynch Delphine. Have Miner Hunter Shoot Waco if town; a shot anywhere else confirms him as mafia.

Have Jari's results tomorrow; if he claims scum on Delphine
-> Have Fontisian Spiritualistic the flip;
---> If she gets scum on Delphine Jarizok becomes clear and Miners confirmed scum. Easy win.
---> If she gets town on Delphine Jarizok becomes confirmed mafia and Miner clear. We lynch Rubicon after and win.

Have Jari's results tomorrow; if he claims town on Delphine she's always town since Jari/Delphine are not W/W, this means we can safely lynch Rubicon then and followed up with a Jarizok lynch the day after is a pretty clean victory in most worlds.

This pretty win crushes majority of realistic worlds here.

Vote: Delphine

Spoiler

---------- Post automerged at 06:15 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:13 AM ----------

Like this plan still has more than enough leeway that we still win in majority of worlds that aren't Delphine/Miner or Rubcion/Waco/Jarizok. I'm not seeing how this backfires unless we're getting snowed by like Vira here which I really do not see as a possibility here.

 

Vote:Rubicon

 

It's a better vote than your Jari one but you should totally jump on board here.

 

About as likely to jump on that wagon as a I was to jump on atum (meaning it's never happening unless delphine says something really stupid).

 

Talk with me here then Fable; What worlds do you still think exist? If it's as small as Rubicon/Waco/Jarizok we're beating that world every day of the week with lynches galore, lots of clears and a hunter shot. That's not the world we should be worried about at the moment or spending this lynch on.

If you've got like a dozen possible worlds post them, we can go over them.

I'm literally down to 3 working of Newcomb being town.