Newcomb yesterday: Hmm if we lynch mafia today that kills fluff. <Spends day voteparked on his #1 stated scumread>
Newcomb yesterday: <Votes Rubicon in direct response to thinking Rubi is outting as mafia>
Newcomb today: Yo now I think I really wanna lynch (town) Delphine man Reg you're so amazing.

>_>??

---------- Post automerged at 12:27 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:24 AM ----------

I mean ofc the other context is that he thought I was townier for thinking Waco was mafia.

I don't even know if I find that progression necessarily intentionally mafia-sided.

 

#Delphine - If you're town here give me scum teams that fit in Koalas/Owner/Rubicon+2 or Koalas/Owner/Rubicon/Waco that you think are possible fypov. Want to see some actual stances from you here, I plan on doing a big reread of the game with Rubicons flip when I get home.

---------- Post automerged at 02:31 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:30 AM ----------

If you're heading to bed tomorrow will do.

 

i'm not convinced that it has to be miner/delphine in this spot, I think cobalt/regfan is viable as well but like. I don't think that's happening unless I make the call myself, and I'm not that confident in it.

 

Just a quick check in to confirm Rubi was a witch and the Apprentice.

I also think Waco was town and you'll all be glad to know that Fable is now town in my eyes. Explanation to follow in a bit when I have some time.

---------- Post automerged at 10:35 ---------- Previous post was at 10:11 ----------

With Rubi confirmed Scum, we're at

Owner/Koalas/Rubi/x/x

My Fable world had to have Waco in it because he confirmed him Holy, so that would be

Owner/Koalas/Rubi/Waco/Fable

But that doesn't play out like this. Without Kai on the scumteam with him, Waco would have pushed him more on softing Inquisitor. As town, Waco playing it like he did is fine. It's Kai after all. As scum, seeing a townie soft your role is the perfect opportunity to pressure him for it, but Waco never really did that. The start of D2 developed perfectly with Kai scum, but that doesn't fit anymore so I'll abandon this world.

 

Lets look at this logically and from a pretty objective point of view.

There's 3 scum minimum inside Jan/Owner/Koalas/Atum/Rubicon/Waco, it's highly unlikely that it's anything other than Owner/Koalas/Rubicon + 2 or Owner/Koalas/Rubicon/Waco + 1, so lets focus on those two worlds right now.

1. Owner/Koalas/Rubcion/Waco + 1

Objectively there's 8 possibilities only (Since the 1 can't ever be Miner/Me) and Fable is clear.

1a) Owner/Koalas/Rubcion/Waco/Cobalt
1b) Owner/Koalas/Rubcion/Waco/Delphine
1c) Owner/Koalas/Rubcion/Waco/Fontisian
1d) Owner/Koalas/Rubcion/Waco/Jarizok
1e) Owner/Koalas/Rubcion/Waco/KaiDASH
1f) Owner/Koalas/Rubcion/Waco/Newcomb
1g) Owner/Koalas/Rubcion/Waco/Vaimes
1h) Owner/Koalas/Rubcion/Waco/Vira

1e) and 1f) are mechanically irrelevant and effectively impossible since both players cannot win from that position and would have conceded by now, there's also the fact that Waco/Kai are just not aligned, same goes with Kai/Rubicon and Newcomb happily pushing for them to both die yesterday as mafia just isn't how he'd play the situation at all there. 1a) and 1b) are pretty much never the case because Delphine bread crumbing and claiming an innocent on Miner in Scum!Her, Town!Him worlds is just..something that makes no sense as the play, similarly Cobalt!Scum claiming to have a watcherman clear on me after he knows I've been haunt-guiltied is just not a move that makes sense to do as scum there. So removing those worlds is easy leaving it as;

1c) Owner/Koalas/Rubcion/Waco/Fontisian
1d) Owner/Koalas/Rubcion/Waco/Jarizok
1g) Owner/Koalas/Rubcion/Waco/Vaimes
1h) Owner/Koalas/Rubcion/Waco/Vira

1c) is highly unlikely based on how the games played out, Fontisian setting up a "Burn everyone including myself" there just..loses her the game as mafia there and Rubicon spending so much time trying to explain how she'd be haunt-cleared as mafia if they're partners just isn't a thing. Similarly given she was a large proponent of Waco/Rubicon being scum and has been adamantly defending Miner/Delphine there's just no scum motivation from her in this world. Remove that it leaves;

1d) Owner/Koalas/Rubcion/Waco/Jarizok
1g) Owner/Koalas/Rubcion/Waco/Vaimes
1h) Owner/Koalas/Rubcion/Waco/Vira

I have Rubicon/Vaimes as hard unaligned based on the "I have you as meta town" "how, which posts so I can learn" "these posts" interaction so 1g) is never an issue, there's several other interactions between Rubicon/Vaimes I think make them unaligned too and I just really struggle seeing a few posts from Vaimes yesterday when interacting with me coming from mafia anyway so this is something I have no issue ruling out.

1d) Owner/Koalas/Rubcion/Waco/Jarizok
1h) Owner/Koalas/Rubcion/Waco/Vira

We're beating 1d) here everytime since Jarizok isn't endgaming so this isn't a concern for now at all, if this is the scum team we've won and might as well spend today elsewhere making sure we have this game safely in the bag. 1h) isn't technically impossible but I have a strong town read on Vira and don't think Vira/Owner or Vira/Koalas is ever a thing, when I go over the game again I'll keep this in mind to see if I can find anything that hard points against/towards it though.

Taking a break then going to go into world 2 as well as my overall plan.

 

Missed this earlier, that's kind of the problem.

If hes w/w with Jarizok, then there's no reason not to claim Judge because the rest of town has no way of contesting that without spiritualist or GD.

He didn't claim judge which I think strongly suggests that Jarizok isn't scum.

 

So, realistically I think the only real plausible worlds of 1 that might exist are Jarizok or Vira, Jarizok isn't beating us and I town read Vira enough for this not to be a real concern.

Waco was probably town? Based on his last post though and how this is looking.

---------- Post automerged at 03:46 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:45 AM ----------

I really think we're probably inside the Koalas/Owner/Rubicon world right now.

So going to spend a lot of time on that post.

Would be nice if someone was around to talk with me about it when I finish.

 

I'll be around working on my own posts, checking in frequently.

 

So if you play with the assumption that Delphine isn't mafia without Miner and that Cobalts not mafia unless I am (I think the odds of either of them fake claiming to save town is just....pretty much zero) and that Fables clear this is all teams of two that can exist;

2a) Miner + Delphine
2b) Regfan + Cobalt
2c) Fontisian + Jarizok
2d) Fontisian + KaiDASH
2e) Fontisian + Newcomb
2f) Fontisian + Vaimes
2g) Fontisian + Vira
2h) Jarizok + KaiDASH
2j) Jarizok + Newcomb
2i) Jarizok + Vaimes
2k) Jarizok + Vira
2l) KaiDASH + Newcomb
2m) KaiDASH + Vaimes
2n) KaiDASH + Vira
2o) Newcomb + Vaimes
2p) Newcomb + Vira
2q) Vaimes + Vira

I'm happy to remove 2l) since mechanically we're beating that world always, they'd have conceded as it by now and they'd most certainly not have let Rubicon get lynched yesterday if that's the scum team. Similarly happy to remove 2c) and 2d) since that'd involve Fontisian suggesting a plan that put her into auto-loss and then attempting to push it through, I similarly think the world where Fontisian/Jarizok have told us the truth about all the flips and the world where Fontisian thought Kai was the Inquisitor when they were the scum team and he threatened to leeroy and she asked him to pick her just are never a team.

I'm also happy to remove just all teams that involve Vaimes here given I really do have him/Rubicon as hard unaligned here and I really can't see yesterday playing out like it did if he's mafia which removes 2f), 2i), 2m), 2o) and 2q). Taking those out it leaves;

2a) Miner + Delphine
2b) Regfan + Cobalt
2e) Fontisian + Newcomb
2g) Fontisian + Vira
2h) Jarizok + KaiDASH
2j) Jarizok + Newcomb
2k) Jarizok + Vira
2n) KaiDASH + Vira
2p) Newcomb + Vira

Kai looking at and bringing Vira back into the fray today is a move that makes no sense if he's mafia; he's relying on her to endgame and letting her continue to ride of the town read she's garnered so far is the way to do so so 2n) can be removed pretty safely, similarly Fontisians plan to have herself killed means that 2e) makes no sense, if she dies she leaves Newcomb alive in a position that he has to concede in so that's just not a thing.

2a) Miner + Delphine
2b) Regfan + Cobalt
2g) Fontisian + Vira
2h) Jarizok + KaiDASH
2j) Jarizok + Newcomb
2k) Jarizok + Vira
2p) Newcomb + Vira

I think a) is probably the world we're in, I don't have anything specifically that rules out g) though since Fontisians plan wins her the game if Viras her partner here and interaction wise this isn't impossible? But this would rely them both hard bussing Koalas very early on which doesn't feel likely. I'll keep an eye out for this one though. I don't think 2h) is the case, Jarizok attempting to get Leeroy yesterday just feels like a losing case for him, similarly neither of them are really doing a whole lot that wins them the game if this is the case. I don't think I have enough to hard remove this but I think it's pretty unlikely, same goes for 2j) nothing hard points against Jarizok-Newcomb being unaligned but they're attempting to win this how? I feel like I think 2k) is unlikely given the amount that Viras attempted to push Jarizok, it's not impossible it's her playing to last stand with as much town cred as possible though so I can't entirely rule it out. I don't think 2p) makes much sense but I've not given it much thought?

So if people disagree with anything I've ruled out yet me know which/why but I think everyone should be down to thinking one of the below are the worlds;

2a) Miner + Delphine - Consider this the most likely by far.
2b) Regfan + Cobalt - Know this to be untrue but keeping it here for the plan.
2g) Fontisian + Vira - Not impossible? Something to look at.
2h) Jarizok + KaiDASH - Pretty unlikely based on interactions. Never winning.
2j) Jarizok + Newcomb - Pretty unlikely based on interactions. Never winning.
2k) Jarizok + Vira - Not impossible? Something to look at.
2p) Newcomb + Vira - Not impossible? Something to look at.

In terms of 'teams possible' that's where I'm at.

 

I don't think it's correct to eliminate vaimes here and scum choices this game are really weird (almost impossibly so) if fonti or jarizok are scum.

 

If we make the plan of "Lynch Delphine -> Have Jarizok state the result tomorrow" you can drop those remaining worlds into two sections;


I. 9 alive tomorrow; Jarizok states Delphine is mafia:

2a) Miner + Delphine
2h) Jarizok + KaiDASH
2j) Jarizok + Newcomb
2k) Jarizok + Vira

We can have Kai Leeroy Jarizok beating world 2h), this would mean it's down to one mafia and last stand is activated, so 5 alive the following day;

2a) Miner + Delphine
2j) Jarizok + Newcomb
2k) Jarizok + Vira

Lynch Miner (Vest), 2 players get shot bringing it down to 3 left;

Lynch Newcomb, he shoots Miner beating both 2a) and 2j)

So by following this plan the only remaining team we lose to is Jarizok/Vira.


---------- Post automerged at 04:30 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:26 AM ----------
KaiDASH - I just don't see this happening between Scum!Rubicon &
Scum!Vaimes, attempting to call Vaimes 'clear via meta' when they're partners with both Fontisian and Newcomb in the game right out the bat and the way the interaction happened...just is never from partners.

 

Your list looks pretty definite to me. We're never in a world not mentioned that I can think of.

 

A Vaimes Rubicon Owner Kalas + 1 team is in so much trouble just from the roll that it's hard to rule anything out.

 

II. 9 alive tomorrow; Jarizok states Delphine is town;

2b) Regfan + Cobalt
2g) Fontisian + Vira
2h) Jarizok + KaiDASH
2j) Jarizok + Newcomb
2k) Jarizok + Vira
2p) Newcomb + Vira

We can just lynch Jarizok here; mafia can't activate last stand even if Jarizok is mafia without ruling out 2b), 2g) and 2p), so if last stand does get activated we're down to 6 with;

2h) Jarizok + KaiDASH
2j) Jarizok + Newcomb
2k) Jarizok + Vira

We have Kai suicide onto Vira blowing up her vest, beats 2h) and mafia make two night kills going down to 3 where we lynch Newcomb and have him kill Vira beating all worlds. So the above proves mafia can't use two night kills even if Jarizok is mafia, so 7 alive the following day with the below still possible;

2b) Regfan + Cobalt
2g) Fontisian + Vira
2h) Jarizok + KaiDASH
2j) Jarizok + Newcomb
2k) Jarizok + Vira
2p) Newcomb + Vira

This is where it gets messy, since we'd have to have Kai leeroy onto someone and if we missed we'd lose, but for arguments sake say people think that Regfan/Cobalt is actually mafia and Kai lerroys onto Cobalt, mafia night kill two people and win the game if it's 2g) or 2p) otherwise 4 alive where we can lynch Newcomb and have him shoot the remainder of Cobalt/Me for theories state meaning we only lose to the following teams with this plan;

2g) Fontisian + Vira
2k) Jarizok + Vira
2p) Newcomb + Vira

So it all comes down to, if we think that Vira is town and think I haven't ruled out the scum team then we always win the game by lynching Delphine here. So, people need to a) State a scum read on Vira and explain it, b) State a reason that you think I've ruled out the scum team or c) Join me on Delphine since it's a winning play.

Vote: Delphine

---------- Post automerged at 04:45 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:43 AM ----------

So their solution is to what....prep Vaimes to win this late game against Town!Newcomb & Town!Fonti? or are you arguing one of them is partners with him? Pretty much, name a scum team you think he makes sense with here with how this games played out please.

---------- Post automerged at 04:47 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:45 AM ----------

I mean regardless of how I assess this game;

- Attempting to just do pure scumhunting / reads
- Attempting to narrow down potential scum teams
- Attempting to find a scum team that are playing to win

It just keeps leading back to Delphine/Miner?

---------- Post automerged at 04:47 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:47 AM ----------

I'm heading out for a few drinks, then going to respond to Newcombs post and start a reread.

 

I was going to with desperately hope for a miracle.

 

Probably the best way I can put the entire posts I have above is this;

If we just lynch Jarizok today and the game doesn't end we'll never be getting information again, nothing will be confirmed and we'll be hunting in several different worlds, by lynching Delphine instead of him today we're still winning if he's mafia here so that's not a concern. But we're also giving ourselves solid information to narrow down the potential worlds to look inside if that doesn't end the game, most importantly his response regardless of what it is provides key information about Delphine/Miner & Cobalt/Me; if he claims a guilty on them then Cobalt/Me become clear, if he claims an innocent on them Miner becomes a clear with a vest and we can do plenty with that information.

---------- Post automerged at 05:25 AM ---------- Previous post was at 05:22 AM ----------

So unless you're absolutely certain that Delphine/Miner are never mafia here (And if you are then you need to explain this read in great detail) we should always be lynching there today, and if you're that certain they're never mafia then presenting a scum team that you strongly believe in shouldn't be particularly difficult since it should be easy to narrow down the worlds via PoE based on that information.

I don't think I can be more clear then that.

---------- Post automerged at 05:30 AM ---------- Previous post was at 05:25 AM ----------

I was also going to hold of going into this point but I'll touch on it now since I'd like others thoughts on it too; every time I brought up the possibility of Delphine/Miner being scum Rubicon was pretty strongly against it and kept instead suggesting that Cobalt/Myself were scum if there was scum inside the duo's; given he's effectively confirmed mafia and likely in huge danger of losing this game if we're dealing with worlds that involve both Delphine/Miner & Cobalt/Myself being town he'd have plenty of scum motivation to either weakly or strongly agree with me about them leaving that avenue to lynch, his treatment of them actually makes plenty of sense if they're scum together. I'll grab quotes about this later.

---------- Post automerged at 05:33 AM ---------- Previous post was at 05:30 AM ----------

On that topic as well, the fact that I've had no one at all have my back outside of sort of Newcomb today in regards to Delphine/Miner being mafia is an indicator that they're actually scum here; if they're town scum are doing...what to attempt to win the game? If it's a case of town/town duo's then surely my scum read on them is a lifeline for scum to get back into the game but they instead constantly attacked me over the read? Makes little sense in the world where Delphine/Miner are town unless it really is just Jarizok as last or it's someone like Vira who has won regardless.

 

State of the game

About the plan today, if all of Jan/Atum/Fluff/Waco are town, which I think is very likely, wouldn't it be better for Kai to LC Delphine rather than lynching her? That way angels can save. If Delphine is a witch it would go to 4-4 if we lynch her. Do we need Kai tomorrow? What are the benefits to having Kai go off tomorrow rather than today?

 

You're not incorrect that lynching Delphine!Mafia puts it 4-4 and means we can't get an angel save but that's not something we should be worrying about at all? If it's Delphine!Mafia you get a guilty on her Miner becomes the confirmed last mafia in the game -- I've gone into the plan above re; beating pretty much every team in the game other than You/Vira if you get a guilty on Miner. If Delphines town then her lynch takes it to 5-3 meaning we'd have control of the angel save and you'd get an innocent clearing Miner with a vest, in this case having Kai use his ability would just take it to 6-3 which is overkill there.

The only reason to ever have Kai use his ability today is if people think there's a genuine chance he's mafia and also want to get his flip reveal claimed by you but there's very strong long towards Kai being town at the moment ie.

The only way Koalas wasn't mafia is if we're looking at Rubicon/Owner/Atum/You/Jarizok, this means the only situation Kai can ever be mafia is with Koalas, I see pretty much no world where Koalas doesn't vest Kai and have Kai Leeroy Fluff there if they're scum together that doesn't involve the final two scum being Kai+Newcomb and if that's the scum team they'd have conceded and Newcomb wouldn't be try-harding in a game he's lost, plus Newcombs just town here.

---------- Post automerged at 06:47 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:45 AM ----------

"You" is obviously meant to be Fontisian.

You said you were working on a post / your thoughts, wouldn't mind hearing them.

 

You kinda took the wind out of my sails with the possible worlds post.

At this point it's obvious that I'm townreading scum somewhere. It could very well be Delphine, but if it's not I'm not sure where to look. It could be any combination of Newcomb/Vaimes/Vira/Font. I'm still pretty secure you and Cobalt are town and I've been convinced Kai/Koalas doesn't play out like it did.

Of those 4, Font scum makes the least sense contentwise. I'm reading the other 3 town on tone as much as anything else. Should Delphine flip town, that's probably where the scum is then.

 

Lettuce end the game.

Vote:Jarizok