Jarizok, did you give results and I just missed it?

Also if we go with Delphine I am totally okay with Kai being the one to blow her up.

 

3324, Rubi is dead witch apprentice.

 

Ah thank you.

 

I kinda wanna say rubicon forgetting to put newcomb on his reads list makes newcomb more likely to be a villager because rubicon wouldn't forget about someone on his team but that's probably a dumb read.

 

Actually, I kind of dig it.

---------- Post automerged at 01:40 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:39 PM ----------

Okay, Reg's walls are fucking awesome. Doing work big time, yo.

I have to say that no, I don't think lynching Jarizok ends the game. According to parity he's truthful again, and when he's been exactly truthful all game long I don't think we have a reason to lynch him right off the bat here.

It's much better to go down the PoE or break up the Delphine scenario first, to get definitive flips from Jarizok. If, down the line, y'all feel he still might be scum - then lynch him, but I don't think he should ever be the lynch toDay.

 

Lynch: Jarizok

 

Reg, is there a reason to not have kai leeroy today?

---------- Post automerged at 03:23 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:22 PM ----------

(Leeroying Delphine, obviously. I'd prefer to lynch von over them and not deal with this shit, bit whatever, apparently we're doing it.)

 

Stop voting Jarizok, for fuck's sake.

 

I go into it in #3338 but effectively by lynching Delphine two worlds are created tomorrow, a) Jarizok states a guilty on Delphine in which case Kai can only ever be mafia with Jarizok so having Kai leeroy today rather than later is pointless and b) Jarizok stating an innocent on Delphine means that Kai having leeroyed her today just changes angels from 5-3 to 6-3 which doesn't do anything extra for us.

Unless you think Kais mafia here and need his reveal it's never the right move. And with it now confirmed Kai can only be mafia in worlds with Koalas it's pretty much a fact he's town; Kais always getting vested, sac'ing on Fluff, preventing a report from coming out; killing a bunch of townies and then going down putting his partners (Rubicon + 1) in a 7:2 situation.

---------- Post automerged at 02:51 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:37 PM ----------

The interaction below between Newcomb/Rubicon imo is way too weird to happen between partners, especially with how it plays out.
That combined with town reading Newcomb pretty strongly and not seeing any scum motivation behind his play if he's in a Owner/Koalas/Rubicon+1 world makes me pretty happy to hard-town read him and remove the Newcomb/Jarizok world entirely; as mafia he'd have bussed Owner D1/Helped lynch Koalas/Rubicon knowing that Jarizok won't even end game as GD and that he can't end game himself. Yeah no, Newcombs just always town here.

 

Um. Why is Kai leeroying bad there in either case? Like, yes he's probably town. But if he's mafia with Jarizok, then having him leeroy today gets him out of the way and saves us some time. If he and Delphine are town, then killing him means he can lead the angels and we're more likely to get a save.

Also, your reasons are just that it doesn't do anything extra when we can just kill him later, but I asked for reasons against him doing it, which you didn't give. :/.

 

We don't have to worry about Jarizok/Kai at all, neither are endgaming; we shouldn't be making a decision today that beats that world when it never wins, the "time" it saves us is pretty minimal. We don't need Kai to "Lead the angels" we've got Jan in there that'll be most certainly competent enough to. The reason why we don't have him do it today is that we're at 11, if he leeroys we'll be at 8 tomorrow; if Jarizok states an innocent we're now at LYLO against Vira + 1 whereas we wouldn't be if we don't have Kai go off; pretty much lynching Delphine -> Jarizok states result narrows down the worlds and gives us information that'll be helpful before making a decision on how to best use Kai.

 

idk I'm in a weird spot right now where I still really don't think it's delphine/miner but at the same time not really sure if I have any reason to fight that lynch so I'm not sure what to do with myself at the moment.

 

Kai is better with the witchhunt setup and angel saves specifically than Jan.

Your plan has us losing against Vira + 1 outside of Kai and Jari anyway.

 

Vote Count.

Jari [3] - Vira, Fable, Miner.
Vira [2] - Kai, Vaimes.
Delphine [1] - Reg.

Not Voting [5]: Cobalt, Delphine, Font, Jari, Newcomb.

I’d prefer Jari, but I’m okay with lynching Delphine toDay. At least three witches are dead, making us 9/2 or 10/1. We can afford to mislynch if Delphine is town, and getting her flip means we can put some theories to rest and focus somewhere else.

Also, what Fable said.

Reg, what will you think if Delphine flips town?

 

Can you find a team of 2 that works here outside of Miner+Delphine? Like you're pretty sure Vaimes/Vira are town here, yeah? And Newcomb/Kai have huge logical points towards being town and die if they're mafia anyway, Fontisian is also pretty likely town so that leaves what world of 2? If you find a different world that you think may work I'll reconsider but everything right now is screaming to lynch Delphine.

First part may be true but not "better" to the extent where I'd want him dead here as town. The second part isn't entirely true, plan II. involved Cobalt/Me getting lynched inside it which I'm pretty obviously not going to allow to actually happen. If my choices here though are a) Jarizok being lynched or b) Kai leeroying onto Delphine I'm picking b) every day of the week, I just think c) Flat out lynching Delphine is the more optimal route.

I think we could even contemplate saving Kai/Newcomb for F4 where we have Kai leeroy onto Newcomb and Newcomb shoot someone remaining killing 3/4 of the people left, I'm that confident that we're not dealing with Newcomb/Kai here and that's optimal usage of both of their roles giving us a 75% base win chance if it goes that deep.

We're pretty much lynching Jarizok tomorrow regardless of what alignment he states Delphine is, if he states she's town I'd have to hope that lynching him ends the game and we're in a world of 1? Not much else makes sense and I really don't think it'll play out like that.

 

If Delphine flips town Reg gets to apologize to me. >__>

 

If anyone at all can provide some strong reasoning behind Delphine/Miner being town I'm all ears but right now all I've heard is a) "Delphine feels town", b) "I don't think she'd make that claim as mafia" c) "Part of her interaction with Koalas didn't read as partners".

a) Is pretty weak in comparison to the reasoning behind several other people being town, b) Ignores the fact the world would be exactly Koalas/Owner/Miner/Delphine/Rubicon and the only person there that was town read D1 was Delphine meaning the only person that could plausibly claim oracle and survive was Delphine so she's kind of..forced into making that play there as mafia and for c) I actually find the way the Koalas-Delphine interaction started off as awkward, I've got links somewhere; I'll find them when I wake up and go over it then.

---------- Post automerged at 03:48 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:47 PM ----------

Works for me.

 

You are more confident that we're not dealing with Newcomb/Kai than in every other world because ?

---------- Post automerged at 04:49 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:49 PM ----------

I feel like you're steam rolling over the reasons Delphine is town.

 

Regfan

https://forums.darklordpotter.net/showpost.php?p=990502&postcount=3227

Did you ever address the bottom part of that post?