Oh. Lmao. /10

 

Then what will you think if Delphine flips town?

Sorry, Delphine.

I understand what you’re saying. It sucks, you’ve tried so hard and I love the effort you’ve put in. I don’t think you’re scum, but we’re at the point we need to narrow down worlds to win the game. If you're lynched toDay, your role won’t be over. You’ll go to Angelchat and help Jan and the rest protect us down here.

That’s not much of a good side, but we're going to win the game together.

 

I mean

Honestly I don't know why you're so frustrated Delphine?

I get the situation but you're not out of the game forever, and if narrowing down the worlds now means that you aren't mislynched in a tragic lategame play that gives us a loss then wouldn't you rather it happen sooner?

I don't want to lynch you either but I feel like we have to at this point.

 

That world involves Kalas, Rubicon and Owner literally all telling us why we shouldn't townread their buddy Regfan all game.

I'm hot garbage at understanding Owner but the only time I've seen scum!Owner treat someone like she treated Regfan in this game it was a town!Nacho+Tammy hydra.

Regarding Kalas, then their team intentionally didn't +life in {Cobalt, Reg} despite Fable having suggested it with the eventual goal of ... this exact scenario in which town is being set up to go through all of our lives, lynches Jarizok, and has no room to reassess. Kalas had a weaker-than-to-fonti "have you said anything about Owner yet Reg?" and spent a long time telling me my logic for Reg being town was dumb but never actually going anywhere with his Reg read at all. And the entire scumteam ends up on Atum because Atum suspects them with the ~let's get the priest an extra life~ thing as an excuse.

Rubicon has had an incredibly nuanced progression on Regfan of both pushing on him and soft-defending him D1-D2; his reasons for scumreading Reg EOD3 seemed very, very bullshitted, so hat tip for that if that's how he is expressing a read on a buddy. Reg...townread, then scumread, then wanted the dude shot instead of lynched for the vast majority of D3.

I'll work on an exact number. I've been operating as if it's minuscule but I want to make sure I haven't self-sabotaged there.

---------- Post automerged at 01:06 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:05 PM ----------

I'm scared because I don't know what's going on well enough to know that it's going to be okay if I get lynched.

Obviously I would rather it was today than any other day.

---------- Post automerged at 01:08 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:06 PM ----------

Maybe I shouldn't be scared because 3+ mafia have died basically without me.

 

I don't think you have anything to be scared of honestly

The chances of us losing with at least 3 maybe 4 witches dead when we still have LC and DoB in play are slim to none.

And we still get flips until they inevitably decide to lynch Jarizok which I kind of don't want to happen.

 

I feel like Koalas always vests Kai inside that world and Kai takes it down to 7;2 where Fonti would back her and Rubicon to have a decent chance of winning that, Koalas not vesting Kai there and the game playing out in this manner if that's the scum team just...never feels right. Also Rubicon was pushing both Fontisian/Kai being partners D2 so yeah, this being the entire team doesn't feel right due to that too.

---------- Post automerged at 04:57 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:55 PM ----------

Yeah, I really think she's just town here too but it's something I'd like to rule out.

Will do this in the next few hours.

---------- Post automerged at 04:59 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:57 PM ----------

Probably not untrue and I'll sure I'd cop it much more than you would but I just don't see a team of two that works anywhere near the level I think this one does and if we're dealing with a world of 1 lynching them and finding out their alignment should win us the game.

---------- Post automerged at 05:05 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:59 PM ----------
Delphine - If you're town here, this is not on you for "Not being able to find the mafia" at all, heck it's not even your fault re; your play because I've actually liked a large portion of your posts and analysis. It's very much a me problem if you're town here because I literally can't find a team more likely than you guys and I've been scum reading Miner throughout the entirety of the game here and find the game playing out this way makes a lot of sense with two scum being outside of the pool.

If you're town I want you to focus on 1 thing in particular right now and that's telling me if there's any teams at all you can find of 2 that involve Jarizok here because I've ruled all of them out. Pretty much if Jarizok claims you're mafia tomorrow I'm lynching him and if the game doesn't end I'm lynching Miner twice, if he claims you're town I'm going to have to hope it ends on him and do ??? afterwards. But the only way that more than 1 lynch is ever wasted on you two and we lose due to it is if it's Jarizok + 1, so tell me who that is or might be.

---------- Post automerged at 05:09 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:05 PM ----------

Um, why does it say "The Dresden Files" at the top of my post?

---------- Post automerged at 05:10 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:09 PM ----------

It's gone now, that was really weird.

Agree with this entirely, we should be able to solve and win this with Delphines flip.

 

Let me run down a few scenarios here just to get my head on straight, sort of thinking out loud.

Townclears
To Be Determined (with Delphine's flip)
PoE
Alignment Unimportant (always dying before endgame)

Cobalt
Regfan
Fable
----
Delphine
Miner
----
Vira
Jarizok
Fontisian
Vaimes
----
KaiDASH
Newcomb

AT MAXIMUM there are two below blue that are scum, because of mechanical confirmation when Fluff died of witches being at least at parity with angels. So we're facing a 9:2 worst case scenario.

If Delphine flips scum, we know Miner is scum and that's game over, victory.

If Delphine flips town, assuming Fable is killed because surviving holy, it becomes 7:2, but with a 1 for 1 traded townclear in Miner.

Cobalt
Regfan
Miner
----
Vira
Jarizok
Fontisian
Vaimes
----
KaiDASH
Newcomb

At this point, we have Kai blow up on our consensus lynch target. Given that blowing up anywhere else is a scumclaim, he'd have to cooperate during this phase hypothetically if he were scum. Either way, he's dying, so that knocks him off the PoE as well as our target. Which I feel like most people will push for Jarizok but given that he's been 100% mechanically truthful so far I feel like going down the rest of the PoE will win us the game, so I'd prefer if it were Vaimes or Fonti, though I'd say Vaimes before Fonti because of the analysis done in-thread so far about how it would just be WEIRD for Fonti to be w/w with the witches that have flipped so far.

So worst case scenario, let's say Kai and that person is town, with night kill it brings us to 4:2 which is potentially MYLO. That's when things are going to get hairy. However, I VERY MUCH DOUBT it ever gets that far without us hitting a witch in the aforementioned PoE.

So let's say Kai is town and the blowup target is a witch, because at that point we'll most likely be down a witch. We're 5:1 and last stand is in play, a mislynch brings us to 2:1 LYLO at which point Newcomb is lynched, if he's town he has a 50/50 chance of killing the last witch and if he's scum it's game over, which means holistically there's a 66% chance of hitting a witch in LYLO, and that's just pure probability without factoring in flips and behavior analysis which would make it easier to determine which of the final 3 is a witch.

This is all assuming that Waco was a villager and that Last Stand isn't in play yet. If there are two night kills, we'll re-evaluate.

Factoring in the fact that if Delphine is town we'll have more angels than demons and thus angel protections are also very much in play, lynching Delphine does the most for the PoE while still affording us enough wiggle room to go down the rest of the PoE safely. I really don't see us losing here.

Lynch: Delphine

Regfan does this look decent?

---------- Post automerged at 06:56 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:51 PM ----------

Also, I realize that from an outside perspective the rest of town doesn't know I'm town so I'm not blue for you but for the sake of my own PoE that's what it looks like.

 

Cobalt - It's a little but more complicated then what you've got it listed as but overall the theory is pretty spot on, by lynching Delphine we either clear Miner or find out there's 1 scum inside [Jarizok/Delphine] which is very much a Win/Win situation here and if there's 1 scum inside [Jarizok/Delphine] then Jarizok has to have a partner alive to make that move which I don't see, alternatively it's just Miner as the second. Pretty much we'll find out pretty definitively what we're looking at. I'm also contemplating having Kai save his leeroy for once we hit F4, have him use it on Newcomb and Newcomb takes out a remaining target for 3/4 of the players in F4 dying but we can talk more about this later, I know I'm confident enough that Kai+Newcomb aren't the team to do it but others may not be and numbers may dictate that we're better off having him leeroy earlier. I think I'm also more confident that Vaimes is town right now than you are.

Did want to comment on this, Jarizok has been forced to be truthful regardless of his alignment this game so far pretty much. There being a haunt guilty on me means he had to claim that Owner was mafia, if he claims that Owner was town he's up against a 2 v 1 here with the possibility of roles like Spiritualist/PT etc condemning him. He was peeped N2 when stating Koalas & Atums alignment so he couldn't lie about them without Fontisian calling him out on it and given Fluff died Rubicon was confirmed mafia meaning again he couldn't lie about that flip. Pretty much while this isn't a reason to be ruling Jarizok out, only a reason to have it point against being Jarizok/Fontisian.

---------- Post automerged at 07:29 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:14 PM ----------

Think Waco leaving this read behind on Vira when he knows he's getting shot at night and we're never actually getting his flip points against it being Owner/Koalas/Rubicon/Waco/Vira since he'd be relying entirely on Vira to end game this and to throw doubt on her being town when we're not going to know he's scum would be a really weird move to make if that's the team.

---------- Post automerged at 07:30 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:29 PM ----------

I think I'm pretty much just down to Delphine/Miner, Jarizok alone, Fontisian alone (Very unlikely) or Fontisian + Vira.

---------- Post automerged at 08:06 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:30 PM ----------
Newcomb, only part way through the thread but so far below are some of the Delphine/Koalas and Delphine/Rubcion interactions/comments I've found so far. I can see them plausibly being scum attempting to divide themselves into two sections like [Miner/Delphine] and [Rubicon/Koalas] so that whenever someone from one side gets lynched and Jari states the flip the other side instantly looks much better, admittedly typing this out and it being something that scum started that early inside the game feels isn't as likely but it's something I think would cross my mind with that sort of team and role division and think it's not impossible for someone on that team to have done so. The interaction specifically in regards to Delphine/Koalas wasn't created 'organically' or anything, Delphine prompted the entire interaction by asking him a series of questions that I haven't really seen her doing as much with anyone else.

Spoiler

Spoiler

---------- Post automerged at 09:03 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:06 PM ----------
KaiDASH, Newcomb - Your reasoning behind why Jarizok W & Rubicon W don't work together is flawed; there's two worlds here;

1) Mafia dropped Spiritualist - In this world your logic of Rubicon!Apprentice has no reason to grab backup to Gravediggger is reasonable, your reasoning behind Rubicon!Apprentice grabbing Judge as backup wouldn't shoot Judge!Jan N1 is also reasonable.

But there's an alternative world

2) Mafia dropped Judge; Rubicon!Apprentice grabbed backup to Judge which is the exact same thing as the judge role but gives him more options in terms of what he can claim ie. Judge/Gravedigger moving forward, in this world mafia just shot Jan!Spiritualist N1 thinking he may have been priest which isn't implausible.

 

Right, but that's not the issue.

If they know Judge is dead AND/OR Rubicon is mechanically the Judge AND Jari the GD is buddies with Rubicon then there is no reason for Rubicon not to claim Judge in that spot because there is no way for them to be found out.

World 1: Jan is Spiritualist. Scum roles are Judge / Apprentice / Fanatic / Nurse / X / X. That means Rubicon is Apprentice to GD or Judge (or actually the Judge).

World 2: Jan is Judge. Scum roles are Spiritualist / Apprentice / Fanatic / Nurse / X / X. That means Rubicon is Apprentice to GD or Judge.

In either world, if Jarizok is buddies with Rubicon, then scum know FOR SURE that Judge is not in play and a Judge claim by Rubicon cannot be contradicted by town because they control the GD info (ignoring using Spiritualist on the n1 kill, which would never actually happen). Making it a very safe claim that /looks real/.

The claim he actually made (GD Apprentice), given what we know of the role distribution, only makes sense if he's not buddies with Jarizok.

I don't think this makes Jarizok town for sure, but I think he's at least as unlikely as any other person right now.

If I had the ability to kill every player in the game bar 2, right now I'd have Vira and Newcomb endgame.

---------- Post automerged at 12:38 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:29 PM ----------

The reason to take out Miner's life before lynching Jarizok (if you're set on that route) is because it's the best thing to do in most worlds:

A. Jarizok is last witch.
B. Miner is last witch.
C. Jarizok + 1 is the team.
D. An unknown player is the last witch.
E. Two unknown players are witches.

A & B are irrelevant. We win 100% in those worlds.

C & D reduces the amount of time that the last witch can use last stand by 1 night, increasing our chances of finding them.

E we probably lose and the lynch order is irrelevant anyway.

 

Oh, don't get me wrong. I understand what you're saying, I just don't understand why he'd look better if he flat out claimed judge instead of Apprentice to GD; by claiming apprentice to GD he's able to take over the narrative of the games flips if Jarizok ever got lynched, by claiming judge he isn't able to do that. I just don't think it's a strong point. But meh, as long as we're lynching Delphine here and there's no world of 2 involving Jarizok I'm pretty comfortable with the position we're in and think we should win based on the reveal tomorrow.

---------- Post automerged at 09:39 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:38 PM ----------

Your reasoning behind taking out a vest of Miner does make some sense. I'm happy to discuss this more tomorrow, think it's pointless to overly focus on it right now.

 

In D & E, Jarizok tells us that Miner is town, so we never lynch Miner there anyway.

So it's the better play specifically against Jarizok + 1 configurations, and irrelevant either way or we don't need to do it in other worlds.

---------- Post automerged at 12:44 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:40 PM ----------

Yeah, it's just...

It looks like a lie if they're aligned, and if they aren't aligned then. Well obviously.

 

Wut. Kai, you don't think they'd think we'd be sketched out by a judge and gravedigger claim, with no subsequent apprentice claim during the massclaim and think one of them was the apprentice, killed the role, and pretended to be it?

---------- Post automerged at 11:02 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:02 PM ----------

If there's no apprentice claim and two sketchy people claimed judge and gravedigger, I'm probably going to kill them both. Rubicon knows that.

 

What Fonti said.

If there's no apprentice claim when we mass-claim with only 1 dead townie at the time, there's only three possibilities a) Apprentice was shot N1, b) Mafia shot judge/gravedigger as apprentice and claimed the role or c) Mafia decided not to keep Apprentice which implies they already had GD; both b) and c) are bad looks for Jarizok so if it's a Rubicon/Jarizok scum team they claim it like how it played out, just don't see this as a strong thing against them being W/W.

I'll probably be able to squeeze in one more post in ~10 hours but other then that unlikely to be on again this day phase, if anyone badly needs me @'me and I'll try and sneak on my phone when I can.

---------- Post automerged at 10:24 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:10 PM ----------

Would like anyones thoughts on these;

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

I'd believe it was random chance :<

 

Unvote.

More to come tonight.

 

i went to a wedding and stayed longer than I thought and had more champagne than I thought so i'm' going to pick this up tomorrow.

 

Day ends in like...19 hours. Timer is in day start post. I'd go get the link but lolmobile.

 

Day Four Votecount

[Vote history]

Spoiler

Vira -> Jarizok
Vaimes -> Jarizok
KaiDASH -> Vira
Vaimes -> Vira
Regfan - Delphine
Fable -> Jarikzok
Miner -> Jarizok
Delphine -> Fontisian
KaiDASH -> Delphine
Jarizok -> Delphine
Cobalt -> Delphine
Delphine unvotes

[Votecount]
Delphine [4] - Regfan, KaiDASH, Jarizok, Cobalt
Jari [3] - Vira, Fable, Miner
Vira [1] - Vaimes

Abstanining [3] - Delphine, Fontisian, Newcomb

With 11 alive, it requires 6 votes to lynch someone at end of day.


Day Four will last 72 hours: Timer

I think/hope that this is the up to date votecount. I included the history just in case I made a mistake and missed something.

 

Waco's last words

Spoiler

So, this post could have come from town. Particularly the first paragraph about Newcomb, the Kai read given Rubicon's the apprentice, and the unalign list (in which I think I can even follow chronologically where those reads came from ...actually except for the Vira/Rubi one actually, but the 3 before that were from D1 imo, and the Fonti/Rubi one was clearly later).

:facepalm at the Newcomb #2609 read tho.

If it came from mafia:
- Buddying up to my pair while shoveling on Cobalt/Reg paranoia while saying things that generally make sense is probably his best hope for not getting shot there
-> Slight counterpoint: Lolwat was that Atum/Jari/me/miner theory right before this post then.
- Putting Vira/Rubi unaligned without a question mark in light of his really bland Vira read earlier in the post is super confusing and I'm honestly not sure if it would makes them more or less unaligned
- Vaimes/Waco makes a certain amount of sense other than that I don't honestly think Vaimes is scum

---------- Post automerged at 01:16 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:46 AM ----------

Jarizok/KaiDASH
-> Uhhh, for Kalas<->Kai blowing everybody up funtimes to happen that leaves, like, Rubicon as endgame scum since it's prob p hard for Jari to be the last scum left. ... I don't really have one reason why I don't think this is a thing, but I don't think it's a thing even tho I guess we "don't lose to it" anyways.

Jarizok/Newcomb
-> Uhhh...... I feel like my mind wouldn't just go utterly blank in response to this if it were a real thing.

Jarizok/Vira
-> His semi recent behavior makes sense if she's his partner (feel like she has the least reason to be in his neverlynch pool from last phase + his read on her today is fairly bad + it would explain how he's potentially in an anti-spew mode as of late) although I don't know that the rest of the game fits with that - Vira not knowing how GD works, Vira literally putting 3 buddies+Fable as her eod1-start of D2 lynch list, the Vira/Owner/Jari thing you mentioned.

Jarizok/Vaimes
-> Ummmmm, Vaimes argued Jari's unaligned with owner? But has wanted to kill him anyway? Vaimes being mafia is kinda like a whole separate issue from Jari being mafia anyway in this world???

Jarizok/fontisian
-> Uhhhhhhh. Are they actually with Atum then??? My brain kind of shortcircuits at the thought of this so I hope it's not a thing. Omg imagine if fonti actually gets her way with the PT plan since she'd be with both Jari and Rubi there. She does like instantly talk herself out of it but still.

Jarizok/Cobalt
-> Cobalt looked like he legitimately wanted to kill Jarizok D1 but has somehow gone from (url=https://forums.darklordpotter.net/showpost.php?p=987543&postcount=1554]this stance[/url] to defending the shit out of Jari for giving real checks this phase. He kinda tied fonti to Jarizok with fonti-fakeclaim-gate but has wanted to kill fonti before Jari since then.

This...actually probably is what happened lmao.

---------- Post automerged at 01:32 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:16 AM ----------

Newcomb - 0.5%. As the only reference point for this scale, I thought Atum was 98% town on N2.

Frankly I've never really seriously thought Reg was mafia at any point during this game; I've had mini-freakouts maybe 3-4 times that I can remember over the course of a couple of weks, but I think for all the anchoring I've done around him this game I would actually see it if it were there. After he started casing miner on liiike.........Day 3? it just made me get Colors of the Wind stuck in my head ("you think the only people who are people, are the people who look and think like you") whereas last game I definitely felt uncomfortable with his approach to me more than I ever could articulate.

I probably should think it's more likely than that because I can't really wrap my brain around what team haunts him but I, like, don't.

Solo Cobalt has a higher % though.

---------- Post automerged at 01:38 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:32 AM ----------

In which Solo Cobalt is defined as Cobalt not with Reg.

---------- Post automerged at 01:50 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:38 AM ----------

Newcomb: What did you think of Kalas calling every single one of Delphine's posts bad at this one point when that scumteam's plan would be to bank the whole game on Delphine towncred?
Regfan: In these completely separate interactions that happened afterward Delphine started it with deep and meaningful questions so they're inorganic.
Me: ?????

---------- Post automerged at 01:56 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:50 AM ----------

The actual physical timeline of pregame+D1 in terms of what I did and how I was read doesn't actually mesh with the scumplans I'm being accused of having.

And no, I don't even think Reg's mafia.

I'm just whining.

---------- Post automerged at 02:03 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:56 AM ----------

vote: Cobalt

 

I wanted to see some Drunk!Newcomb posts, damn.

Jarizok not understanding how Kai's role worked inside Post #2718 and thinking we could have Kai blow someone up and still have a lynch and wanting to do that only to realise we can't inside Post #2720 and him still wanting Kai to go off inside Post #2722 while attacking the reasoning behind Kai being town in Post #2726 pretty much hard rules this out.

I just never see this being a thing with how Newcombs played this game, I don't see him giving himself an avenue to win the game with it and well frankly I'm that confident that Newcombs just town and that we beat this world that I'm not going to waste much effort on it.

Yeah, see this is where I was at with it in a "Thinking about it recently it seemed a scum team that wasn't implausible" but I think looking back at a few things you've mentioned re; what she'd have to be faking as mafia with Rubicon/Jarizok/Her and their interactions earlier on with Owner it's just not the team.

I'm...........kind of at the same space here? I don't have much that points against them being partners but I just don't see Vaimes being mafia here so it's not something I've been overly concerned about.

I don't think Atum!Scum vests Fluff like that and I don't think Koalas!Town goes down like that, I think if Jarizok/Fontisian are mafia it's probably still with Kolas but...I just don't see this being a world, there's lots of interactions between them that don't really feel like W/W and I don't see what she's doing here to win the game if that's the case.

This feels ridiculously tin-foily to me, like if Jarizok is mafia and mafia have control of GD then there's no reason for Cobalt to link himself to me, they already have control of the narrative of the game, like he can link himself to a partner and if one of them ever get lynched Jarizok calls that person town.

---------- Post automerged at 04:44 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:42 AM ----------

I'm not following your progression towards voting Cobalt here even remotely, Rubicon makes a post that calls attacks Fontisian and you think Cobalt!Scum instantly and correctly calls him out for posting something that was in scum chat inside the thread why? You're going to need to run it through with me a little more and answer a question that Newcomb didn't; who does Cobalt realistically work with as scum here? Because I strongly disagree that he works with Jarizok.