We need to make a decision today.

With the missed kill we can afford to do the following;
Lynch Miner (7 Alive) -> Mafia Night Kill if game doesn't end (6 Alive) -> Lynch Jarizok (5 Alive) -> Mafia Night Kill x 2 if the game doesn't end (3 Alive) -> Have Kai leeroy into Vaimes or Cobalt.

By doing this we only lose to Jarizok/Vira and 1 of Jarizok/Vaimes or Jarizok/Cobalt.

 

I mean, Vira, your logic about my play is correct. The Delphine play banks on the fact that I'm going to endgame.

There's no way in hell I'd be more confident in endgaming over owner. Especially if fonti AND Newcomb are both town.

So like... no.

And I mean, I think that since Reg/Cobalt are always clear here, we really should consider everyone else (Kai notwithstanding because he's leeroying today.)

 

With Vira being a survivalist the only way we ever beat Jari/Vira is lynching her twice and doing so means we can't afford to Lynch Miner as well. And frankly I think the odds of her being mafia and with Jarizok are low enough that I'm willing to just accept I lose to that one scum team.

---------- Post automerged at 05:07 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:06 PM ----------

Kai is not leeroying today; it'd have been optimal if someone dies last night for him to but with us still at 8 it's not.

---------- Post automerged at 05:11 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:07 PM ----------

Mathematically with Kai leeroying today we get 3 kills, with him not we get 4.

 

Okay then Reg.

Lock her in as town. I can see that.

Lynch me, lynch Jarizok, and then if the game doesn't end (which I'm pretty sure it won't), look in Vaimes, Fable, and Cobalt I guess.

But I really doubt Cobalt's scum here, doesn't really feel like his scumgame at all.

 

What are your reasons for doubting Fable? Waco confirmed he was holy, unless you believe Waco was scum as well.

 

Fable is hard clear.

For Fable to be mafia Waco would have to as well and Owner/Koalas/Rubicon/Jarizok/Waco/Fable would be a scum team of 6, impossible

---------- Post automerged at 05:46 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:18 PM ----------

If we are ever lynching Miner this game it's today, it's never mechanically optimal to Lynch Jarizok and come back and lynch Miner afterwards since doing so means that mafia use last stand tonight regardless of the world with no consequences.

 

There was definitely scum in Jarizok/Delphine.

I don't think lone Miner forgoes the last stand there. So let's lynch Jari and it's +1 probably so that's what I'm concerned about.

Come through though angels, yasss.

 

Agree.

I don't think Miner's scum and lynching him is a waste of time.

 

Cobalt - Miner can't use last stand last night as mafia; if he does the it becomes confirmed we're dealing with a world of 1 in which case we lynch Jarizok/Miner regardless of the order and win the game. As mafia he has to make a singular night kill there.

That said there is some logic towards him being town in that if Delphine was mafia then last night was the first night during the game angels could save anyone in which case shooting Fable is...pretty ballsy there whereas the night kill makes sense if Delphine is town and mafia thought that Fable was already haunt-saved and an easy night kill. But I'm not sure how much I should be attributing to logic like this given well Miner as mafia has to do something to try and save himself and him shooting Fable and then including him inside his scum reads afterwards feels like a possible forced dumbtell.

 

Oh right, nvm I'm dumb.

---------- Post automerged at 07:17 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:15 PM ----------

I mean, I would like to point out that I would rather be lynched today than paranoia lynched in F4/F3.

 

lynch miner

Last stand is both optional and fakeable (once)

thanks.

 

So Fable, Regfan are lock clear.

I should be lock clear if y'all realize there are no world in which one scum in Jarizok/Delphine is ever my partner. I never clear Regfan there when he's a D2 mislynch.

I'm... obscenely worried about a Jari/Vira team.

 

Only Worlds Possible
1. Miner is the last mafia.
2. Jarizok is the last mafia.
3. Jarizok + Vira are mafia.
3. Jarizok + Vaimes are mafia.
4. Jarizok + Kai are mafia.
5. Jarizok + Cobalt are mafia.

8 Alive

Lynch Miner: 7 Alive
Mafia Night Kill (1): 6 Alive
Lynch Jarizok: 5 Alive
Mafia Night Kill (2): 3 Alive
Have Kai Leeroy into Vaimes (Interchangeable with Cobalt)

Worlds we beat with this plan
1. Miner is the last mafia.
2. Jarizok is the last mafia.
3. Jarizok + Vira are mafia.
3. Jarizok + Vaimes are mafia.
4. Jarizok + Kai are mafia.
5. Jarizok + Cobalt are mafia. (Interchangeable with Vaimes)

So if we can rule out Jarizok/Vira we pretty much always win via going with this plan, today is pretty much about focusing on that and gun to head is that they're not a scum team.

 

I have 99% confidence it's not vira.

 

Reg stop worldbuilding with me ffs lmao

---------- Post automerged at 07:50 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:49 PM ----------

We lose if we go to f3 with me Kai and Vira if it's Vira because he will blow me up.

---------- Post automerged at 07:51 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:50 PM ----------

And we couldn't kill her anyway.

I think we have to write off Vira because if it's her we lose.

 

I mean, I'd rather not be talking at all about who it is we're going to lynch if miner/jarizok doesn't end the game, but since it's already happened...

 

Haha, I'm trying to remain as objective as possible to notm iss something completely. If you're asking for my flat out reads I still think we're probably just dealing with 1 of Jarizok / Miner with them refusing to concede and wasting time.

Preeeeeety much. We have to either commit to a world involving her being mafia today or admit that we're not beating her given she has a vest and frankly I don't think I can lynch her before Miner this game so, yeah.

Probably should just commit;

Vote: Miner

---------- Post automerged at 07:30 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:05 PM ----------
Miner - If you're town here and think it's Jarizok +1 it's about you telling us who the +1 is and why - need to actually start putting into the game now because if we don't win via lynching you then you become confirmed town and your thoughts are actually useful.

 

It could be Jarizok/Vaimes. Blech.

 

Vira, walk me with you're at exactly.

You currently think Miner is town which means Jarizok is scum.

So who is his partner? If he's alone going Miner->Jarizok wins us the game so you shouldn't not want to lynch Miner if that's the world you're envisioning. Is it Jarizok/Kai, Jarizok/Vaimes or Jarizok/Cobalt?

 

Heh. That's the thing, is that I really don't know who that +1 is.

Because, look, Vira is apparently consensus "if we lose to her then w/e". Fable and you are lock clears. Cobalt is a ??? in terms of mechanics, but tbh he's right in that it doesn't make sense for him to save town!Reg d2 after witch!owner dies n1 and it looks like witch!Rubicon and witch!Koalas are both drawing heat. Like, he'd be better off saving Kalas there, and maybe even pushing for Kalas to... you know... not Nurse me.

Which really just leaves Kai and Vaimes. And Kai's going to die regardless, so it's really just Vaimes.

I mean, Vaimes did assassinate Kalas, and apparently Newcomb thought he was town, so that's something. Like it doesn't really make sense, but *Shrug* I guess he'd be my best bet if it really gets down to F4.

That being said, if angel saves come in clutch, does Vira really still win if it's scum!Vira? Let's say angels get another save sometime between now and F3/F4. Does that mean we can actually have Vira down to 1 life by F3/F4?