All the guys Zen leapfrogged were also lightgreen...

Fonti was a townread on solviness and tone independent of reads, but rereading Miner it stuck out to me that I can't find Fonti/Miner from last game, so it's definitely something to look into. Guess Fonti was an example of a read independent of my scumreads before I mentioned this ^.^

---------- Post automerged at 11:11 ---------- Previous post was at 11:09 ----------

I have to leave it at that for the next 10 hours or so. Going out to visit relatives and friends I left behind when I moved to Malta.

 

@Jari - So the scum read on Fontisian is entirely based around Miner being mafia? If Miner was to be shot right now and flip town would you have a strong town read on Fontisian in that case? Like surely you can see this (and several other reads of yours) and realise you're too tunneled into a 'world' already and need to start re-assessing.

Kai, this is the majority of your progression towards voting me here today, it's feeling a lot more like you attempting to force it to match last game rather than a natural read. Should have been pretty clear I was playing D1 hugely different to WH in that I even set a post-limit restriction upon myself D1 because I didn't want to be 'too close to thread' (and then broke the limit by ~14 posts) while playing mostly to get a solid town core that I could elaborate my reasoning on. Playing today pretty differently though, really need to start actually working out where the scum actually are. So time for you to actually start elaborating on some reads more.

---------- Post automerged at 04:18 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:16 AM ----------

Stopping at #835.

This thread is way too dead though.

 

Regfan --- See below. At the time of questioning I probably would have said (Jari/you), and some combination of Q, Waco, Stanari...Cobalt??. I'm hoping my D1 reread will be more instructive on this front. (As an aside, I'm largely separating the worlds in to "Jarizok is town" and "Jarizok is scum" at this point)

Okay, so reread notes. (In advance: I'm looking out for people who started Plotless wagon, moved onto it from other places, and had attention distracted from them by the Plotless lynch)

Stanari picking up a bunch of meh aggro that fades out several times is...notable. Reads like either people going after him failing to push a lynch, or scumbuddies refusing to get on board and it losing momentum.

Regfan/Jarizok are at each other very early, and way too persistently for it to feel like a bus. Not ruling out that it's v/v though.

The votal in #161 gives me the impression there's scum somewhere in Vaimes/Stanari/Font? Wouldn't be Vaimes and it's POSSIBLE they're all town, but it looks kind of like one of the wagons is on scum and the others are there to obfuscate.

Hmm. I reread Pie's #184 and the attack on Cobalt feels like the sort of thing that will be bad if Cobalt is town. Like, it's an overkill attack on an easy target? At this stage in the game? Ehhh....

#198 makes me feel better about Q than I did, but I still can't shake the feeling he's not really invested in finding the scum. I dunno what it is exactly. Definitely Jarizok/Q feels like it could be w/w given how he specifically refuses to hop onto Jari later in the day (if Jari is scum, this reads like challenging a case on a buddy to help discredit further attacks on that buddy in advance)

#222 --- First post by Plotless. Little to no reaction. This makes me think later negative reactions to Plotless might be born from convenience. Only reaction seems to be #236 Waco "lol plotless is scum", which is brazen if Waco is scum but not out of the question.

#248 is Regfan jumping on Plotless early. No reason given, doesn't move later. This makes me think Reg/Waco are probably NOT w/w, and makes me not like Reg. People with more than one vote at this point are (Vaimes/fontisian/Stanari/Cobalt). I don't think this is where the Plotless wagon gets used as a diversion though.

#293 --- Quiddity votes Plotless. Following it up with questioning is positive, but the fact this comes after the Stanari wagon goes to 3 is >_>. If anyone has Q/Stanari anti-align evidence, I'd be interested to hear it. This probably still isn't the point where it distracts from other things, though.

#379 is Reg trying to get Plotless moving. I'm torn on this: On the one hand it's ew, on the other hand it seems kind of...blatant. Fable pushing back on it in #380 is good.

#395 for Vaimes is good sensible talk on Plotless. Vaimes is town. Whoopee.

#396 Stanari low-reads Plotless. Doing this and not casting a vote when Plotless later picks up a train and flips town is...not great.

#424 Plotless votes Stanari. Iiiiiinterestin'

#450 Blab naked votes Stanari. Notable because Stanari feels like a world pivot in the same way Jarizok is.

(Refreshed thread at this point, and Jari/Regfan interactions don't feel w/w. So that is still a thing)

#470 makes me like blab for the Plotless comment (easily catchable as scum needs to post moar). #473 Fable agrees with this.

Votal at #570: Stanari has been top wagon for long enough that I don't think scum are trying to bring it down.

#594 and associated paraphernalia makes me think Jarizok/Cobalt aren't w/w. That's not a good place for Cobalt to bus or votepark, as in a parallel universe that could have been the vote that killed Jarizok off.

#641 is a bad Plotless vote by Stanari. Quote: "I was going to wait for Plotless's response, but eh.". This gives off a strong "I want to run up Plotless for reasons unrelated to their scumminess" vibe, and comes as Stanari herself is a top wagon and dayend is creeping closer.

#658/660 sees Regfan resetting his position on the Plotless wagon via a joke. This is probably nothing but could be considered kind of >_>

As of #687, the Jarizok wagon has picked up to "Jan, Cobalt, DC, Fable". Plotless sits with Stanari and Reg. Stanari and Q are counterwagons to Jarizok at this stage. This votal is interesting for reasons I will explain in my next post.

#688 Jarizok rightly says NAI on Plotless here. This and the reluctance to hop over to his obvious counterwagon are points in his favour (...I may have been overzealous D1, although I think having the counterwagon was good)

#696 is...font naked voting Plotless, bringing the wagon up into contest range. I do not like this. If any of Jarizok, Stanari, and/or Q are scum I especially do not like this.

#738 font justifies this in a way that feels like it's putting Plotless in a position he knows he'll respond badly to given how he's been so far. This is kinda reaching but I'm not getting a good vibe.

#739 brings up an interesting point. Acio votes Plotless because the game is not moving. The obvious reason for this is that the current wagons favoured by town players are on scum.

#753 font vaguely tells people to go for plotless. This continues to be bad.

#758 Waco votes Plotless. Do not like. Justified entirely using someone else's reasoning. This is the kind of vote scum make to try and derail a wagon by bigging up another wagon.

#772 - This votal reveals that Jarizok and Plotless are the only two real wagons going at this point. So if Plotless IS a diversion that Waco/font contributed to, it's probably from Jarizok.

#811 - Pie votes Plotless. This is evidence for Pie/Jarizok w/w I think.

#823 - Q moves of Plotless citing distrust of the way the lynch is building! This alone makes me like Q a lot more.

#839 - Blab naked votes Plotless. Goddamit people.

#853 - Blab naked votes Jarizok. Previous comment rescinded.

#877 - Zenzao attempts to push the balance towards Jarizok. Notable due to Jarizok's nature as a world pivot.

#889 - font continues canvassing for Plotless.

#891 - Q...walks back the Plotless comment with no commentary? This is gross. Especially since it is the turning point at which Plotless becomes the more or less inevitable lynch for the day.

#893 blab bounces back to Plotless, but I think this was actually thought through and just a townie making a mistake.

#908 --- This post is Cobalt calling for Jarizok to be murdered big time if Plotless flips town. This is very good for Cobalt if Jarizok is scum, and bad if Jarizok is town.

#917 is Q specifically telling me the case on Jarizok is bad. This is very very ew in Jarizok scumworld.

Notable: font spends a bunch of time standing around arguing plotless is scum around this point. In fact most of font's activity seems to be pushing the plotless lynch. Low activity itself I can accept is a result of font's current condition, but that activity being specifically focused on putting a shady lynch that ended up being on a townie? >____>

#941 Fable hops on Jarizok and tries to balance that up. Notable due to Jarizok being a world pivot.

And that's more or less everything interesting I spotted. I will condense this nonsense down into reads/worlds/whatever in my next post. This may take some time.

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Okay. So broadly speaking we have three worlds:

- Jarizok is town, Plotless lynch started with misguided townies. In this case the scum largely got a free ride through D1, and it's "not thinky" people that stand out as suspicious. That's anyone with badly considered votes on Plotless OR Jarizok, and anyone who was relatively scarce. I think I might not like Cobalt here, who now feels like coasting scum. Stanari kind of feels this way as well, while I'm on the fence about Q. Waco's laziness reads like coasting in this world as well.

- Jarizok is town, Plotless lynch was kicked off by scum. This lends itself to Regfan being aggressive scum and Q/Stanari being town that buy into it? Maybe? I'm not sure how likely this world is, really. It's probably the one I have the least read on.

- Jarizok is scum, Plotless lynch was a diversion from lynching him. This implicates font, pie, and/or Waco. Their votes are well spaced out and pretty pivotal factors in that lynch going ahead instead of Jarizok's lynch. Q is also in a bad spot here. Townreads in this world include Fable, Zenzao, Blab (weak), Cobalt, and interestingly Regfan (whose Plotless case was hijacked by scum to save their buddy)

Lynch: The Waco Kid feels icky in most of these scenarios. While font and others mostly only look bad if Jarizok is scum, Waco's actions around Plotless feel not great in either case (lazy unconsidered vote that distracts from another wagon? >_>). In addition, Jarizok being scum feels like kind of a slam dunk at this point so I'm wondering if we should go after other people first.

 

There's some parts of your analysis I agree with, and some parts I pretty strongly don't.

I think if we're looking at Plotless!Town & Jarizok!Town then there's a good chance scum were some of the lazier votes on either wagon and they probably were lesser active around that period given there was no real threat or risk for them; people I'd look at in this situation is indeed people like Waco/Pie/Stanari/Q/Cobalt for instance fit that mould. That said I think you're slightly missing some of Wacos progression on his Plotless read, he had him as scum earlier on ie. here making his vote fairly understandable. That said I think his real lack of thoughts and analysis in the mid-latter section of D1 and how he drops the Pie read due to her large post but doesn't really come out with any new reads at the time to make sense as scum in that situation.

If we're looking at Plotless!Town & Jarizok!Scum I think there's probably a mixture of scum on both wagons, I don't think it's implausible for some of the scum to voted him / remained on him to look better come later in the game, I also think it's less likely they'd have 'hard pushed' on Plotless to save him when they know that Jarizok would probably be lynched D2 anyway in that case.

---------- Post automerged at 05:27 AM ---------- Previous post was at 05:23 AM ----------

Tried to get as much out of Jarizok as I can, when I finish rereading the thread going to spend quite a large amount of time just going over his ISO, really think determining his alignment is going to be key here; argument can made that using the shot on him and knowing it as a fact is a solid move but if he's town here not entirely sure we can be throwing away mis-shot like that.

 

There's probably at least one scum on Jarizok in Jariscum world, yeah. I would think though that the lion's share would be on Plotless not JUST because that wagon pulls off Jari, but also because the WAY it did so feels artificial. Although you may be right in that they wouldn't be OBVIOUS about it, in which case font and Q are less likely to be scum in Jariscum world (as they pushed pretty hard for the Plotless lynch). In that case I'd be scrutinizing pie and Waco.

Also the linked post by Waco reads to me like setting up a mislynch if Waco is indeed coasting or diversionary scum. It's immediately flagging an apparently low activity person for later lynching should it become necessary or desirable.

 

blab - Can you explain both of these comments for me please (The town read on Pie & why there's a 'ceiling' on town reading me v other players.

---------- Post automerged at 05:51 AM ---------- Previous post was at 05:48 AM ----------

As of #877 the vote count was;

Think if Jari's scum this will be pretty important to revisit. It was actually Jan that moved there changing it to 8-7 in Plotless's favour, was followed by Fontisan restating that Plotless is the lynch, Q moving from Kai->Plotless making it 9-7 with Blab and Jarizok following that up moving it to 11->6 making the lynch pretty decided at that point in Post #900

---------- Post automerged at 05:55 AM ---------- Previous post was at 05:51 AM ----------

Stanari, why didn't you include Fontisian over say Kai in Post #919 when she's been your scum read throughout pretty much the entire game?

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Finished going through D1; think my "lock town" circle at the moment is just DC/Acio/Vaimes/Fable. Everyone else I need to do some ISO'ing on, going to be spending more time on Jarizok/Pie then the rest I think though.

 

Hi I just had graduation and now I'm finally awake again.

This post is just gross. This is not how town pushes reads.

Also, fontisian you've got pretty much toDay to prove to me that you're town. You know how .

 

Um. Regfan, wtf are you doing?

I'm going to sit down and try to accomplish a lot of the stuff I need to tomorrow, it's 4 AM and I have no energy.

 

Okay no, I didn't have a light V read on him I said I understood how other people could maybe have a V read on him. If Zen is selectively reading my posts and making things up just to justify his read on me as a villager then that's just insanely terrible and yeah you were probably right yesterday when you said I was biased but I think we're way past the point where I could ever see Zen's play coming from a villager.

That being said even if Zen is a wolf there are other wolves so I'm just gonna focus on finding those people because if I keep pushing Zen I'm just gonna get tilted again and that's not helpful to anyone.

 

Truth; I think you're scum. Below is why, if you're town you need to step it up and convince me I'm wrong;

1) The progression behind your Jarizok read inside the thread is non-existent and given how large a focus Jarizok was inside the thread (Counterwagon to Plotless and even before then a main topic of conversation) this is something very difficult to understand. Even early on inside Post #197 etc you comment on not reading his posts as 100% serious but don't really take any sort of alignment stance on him. You even acknowledged that you should have a read there in Post #508 but do nothing to actually move towards that there or in your future posts, your first actual comment on his alignment isn't really an actual read in Post #875 and feels like one of your TMI type posts where you're setting yourself up to look post-flip of his. Like if I'm looking at your play around him I don't see any game solvey attempt or opinion and that not existing is a pretty large scum tell for you.

2) The progression of the Waco read doesn't particularly read genuine, this is going to kind of ruin what I wanted Acio to do but when I look at that read of yours I can't help but think "This is Pie distancing from a partner" rather than you actually thinking he's mafia. The reasoning stated inside Post #282 isn't bad at all but the phrasing feels very door-to-door salesman-y (And I'm aware this is a horrid description, I just can't think of a better way to phrase it), the fact that it's not attached with a vote at that stage and then you list your reads list with no real comments attached to him in Post #508 where I think if you're town you'd most certainly be focusing on that is a concern. I think the way the vote gets placed down timing wise in Post #655 and how you comment on his play in Post #657 fits more how you handle scum reads as scum and the fact that this read isn't restated or mentioned again after this post is something I really struggle to see from you as town.

3) Your interaction (Or lack therefore) with me after I stated a town read on you in mid-late D1 is something that I reallllllllllly think comes from Scum!You way more than than town, understand that you had time constraints and things at the time but your posts inside the thread afterwards didn't feel like you were concerned with the state of the game at all and it's very much in line with your scum meta where when scum are in a good position and you're being town read you're pretty comfortable to let town just tear themselves apart while you float on by. I also don't really buy your read on me inside Post #875 at all and if I'm looking through your ISO for "Reads she really believes in" I'm not seeing it in majority of your posts.

---------- Post automerged at 07:05 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:03 AM ----------
Fable - That's fair. What do you make of my Pie read ^.

 

Stanari

Thoughts on cobalt now that plotless has flipped V?

 

An, my Adult friend, you going for OMGUS rather than seeing this is not a serious post made my check in.

 

I don't want to go into this too much because there are still things I'm looking to see out of pein and that'll sure up my read one direction or the other and it seems like it involves a bit of meta knowledge so I'm lost there but it does reinforce my opinion that it seemed like she wasn't really getting involved d1. Still not sure I see 657 coming from a wolf (though you seem to think she's capable of posting like that as a wolf) and that's really the biggest thing in her favor right now. I do wanna revisit this read with you towards midday though because I should be more sure of my own read of her by then.

---------- Post automerged at 08:46 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:39 AM ----------

Also I take it this means you think waco is also a wolf? Is that still true independent of your pien read?

---------- Post automerged at 08:54 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:46 AM ----------

Also one good thing I will say for jar is that he seems to be sticking around, by this time in WH8 he was already dropping off heavily.

 

Sure, I'm happy to talk more about this later on when you've got a firmer opinion. And yeah, this is partially meta-based (Here's one of her more recent town completed games, probably not the best game to read through but a skim of the ISO might give you an idea what I'm referring to), as town Pie is normally very immersed into the game, her reads are very easily identifiable and it's very easy to tell when she actually believes in them whereas when she's mafia it's more about being town-read and then letting town lose themselves the game while making key night kills that give her game-control. Going over her ISO here there's a detailed read on Cobalt/Acio very early on, after that it's just the DC & Waco reads that she's touched on, nothing else is really explained at all, real life commitments etc obvious playing a part in when she can get to the thread but I don't see her trying to gamesolve like I'd expect when she is here. Since I forgot in my prior post;

Vote: Pienyan

I think Pie can be mafia independently without Waco, I think Waco can be scum without Pie, I just merely think it's possible that they're together based on how the interaction played out and what I know of her scum game.

 

Regfan

Was I lied to?

 

Not at all, take a look at that game, Pie doesn't post till #378 in it. She likes to disconnect herself from the very early game so she has some un-biased reads when she enters, she did that here too which isn't an issue, it's just there was no follow up afterwards.

 

Alright just wanted to make sure, also reading through waco now and his progression on plotless seems little bizarre to me. I'll explain what I mean in a bit when I'm all the way through.

---------- Post automerged at 09:17 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:16 AM ----------

Bizarre as in there kind of isn't one.

---------- Post automerged at 09:26 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:17 AM ----------

So this is the entirety of waco on plotless. As you can see it's kind of really fucking empty. There's the original accusation which when plotless asks him to explain waco just deflects. He then gives reasoning later which okay it's not terrible but this doesn't look like enough to lynch someone on and it's the only time he talks about plotless cuz after he spends most of his time arguing with pien and then she makes a wall post and he shifts onto plotless and that's literally it. It just seems really weak.

 

Can't really be OMGUS if I "shaded" you first.

 

Yeah Fable, the point about the emptiness of Waco's read there is decent.

Miner - I'd be cool to hear some reads / thoughts from you if you've got any.

 

Expect them sometime today.