I think Jarizok is town.

I've been reading his Day 1 from WH8, the previous game where he was mafia. There was big D1 push on Miner, who was town, and Jari actually lightly defended him and called the reads funny, which I think was an expression of Too Much Information. He also had two very easy town reads on Von and Delphine. I think the only thing remotely similar to this game is the way he pursued Jan a bit for softing, but that push fizzled out quickly, whereas he actually put work into his Von and Miner pushes here. He also did a lot of busy work at the end of D1, likely emulating Vira, but hasn't really done that here.

I'd point to the case on Von, especially this bit:

I think if he were trying to break his meta and get townread for a bad tunnel, he wouldn't have been that explicit about it. I also think this is a very likely thing for him to feel as town.

Yeah.

---------- Post automerged at 04:25 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:22 AM ----------

I also think Miner is town, without even getting into his wall.

The way he approaches isn't something I think he would do as scum. Like, there's the "get your shit together" sentiment which scum like to fake (though I'd argue that making it sound this genuine is hard) but there's also this kind of shitting on Plotless' play up to that point in an exasperated manner that I think indicates he wasn't trying to make any friends with the post. I think a good way to put it is that the post was abrasive /because/ he was irritated and paranoid and not really concerned about how other people would perceive it.

 

So why is it scummy that people think he's town?

Like, this seems to contradict others.

@all: when I say, I'm voting him because I'm walking out the door, here are the cliff notes, I don't really expect the response "why didn't you substantiate it with the exact posts that are giving this". Y'all are fortunate it wasn't naked.

I mean, I will give that at some stage. But come on.

 

I don't think we're going to agree on this but one last shot: the way that particular thing is handled I don't think is natural feeling for teammates casually/unattentively bussing each other, it's too focused/meshing/smooth to just improv and I don't think it was planned because that's not a plan I see happening. "I'll fail to attack you based on forum rules I don't know and I'll snap back at you for it"

Both of them managed plenty of more sane reasons they could work a bus out of and this feels over the top to me and far more natural for players that aren't knowingly teamed.

 

I completely agree with Acio on that, for what it's worth.

 

It isn't, and you'd know this if you read what I said. It's simply a point I brought up for why I don't think it's a town tell to town read him, not a point saying it's scummy to town read him.

 

I'd..agree with that meta assessment of Jarizok.

fontisian, so your comment to Miner earlier wasn't serious, or you've rethought it and think he's town again? Which of the two. Also where's the scum / who should be shot & lynched right now and why?

@Acio, I still don't agree? If you take a look at how I interacted with Pozzai and he interacted back in Jurassic Park (My last scum game) I had interactions pretty similar to what you're describing you don't think would occur.

@Q, when you get a chance I'd like you to answer the question about Vaimes I had for you.

 

Somewhere in between.

I am looking at Stanari and Waco, primarily.

 

Here's a link to the game if you want to see what I'm referring to Acio, might also squash your paranoia of me.

@Fonti - There's more than 2 scum in this setup, where's the rest inside of?

---------- Post automerged at 04:00 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:58 AM ----------

I embarrassingly have spent close to 10 minutes attempting to open a bottle of bourbon.

---------- Post automerged at 04:11 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:00 AM ----------

I did it! I got it open!

Okay, time to go reread Q/Stanari/Kai properly.

 

ok, I looked at the progression from where Plotless called Stanari Stan to Stanari's vote and I more inclined to think that was fake scumhunting by Stanari,
a) because it was in response to maybe Plotless's best post, which was a push on Stanari
b) because like basically everything from Stanari it's so self-focused.
c) because it's the biggest push she has done.

---------- Post automerged at 04:15 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:14 AM ----------
Regfan Can you look at ^this specifically?

---------- Post automerged at 04:38 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:15 AM ----------

Blab
Jan
Plotless


Acio
Vaimes
dC


Zenzao
Fable
Regfan


Miner
KaiDASH
pienyan


Jarizok
Quiddity
fontisian


Waco Kid
Cobalt
Stanari

---------- Post automerged at 04:44 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:38 AM ----------

Just afraid Stanari is lynchbait.
But she hasn't done anything, constantly talks about how she isn't doing anything.

---------- Post automerged at 04:46 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:44 AM ----------

Cobalt probably the more informative shot, Waco also, because
Jarizok -/- Cobalt
KaiDASH -/- Cobalt
Waco -/- pieyan

Kind of, sort of annoying that Cobalt can't post until Saturday given Vaimes shot.

 

I think your points about Stanari are pretty accurate. I still continue to dislike how Stanari hopped onto Fontisian in Post #165. The comment about Cobalt in the second paragraph of Post #289 doesn't seem right? Like it feels like a really difficult type of post to make as town. The placement of Pie in Post #396 doesn't really fit her prior comments about her and the answer to the question I proposed to her took a long time to get to with the answer being very lazy in Post #919. I kind of liked the change in her placement list from Post #987 to 5 minutes later in Post #992, feel like it's the sort of change town do more than scum when they instantly think of something that makes them unhappy with the placements after posting it and wanting to get it down.

I think I come out of reading that at the same spot I did going into it in that I could see her as scum but it's not a confident read and it's not particularly where I want to waste the shot since I don't think town or scum Stanari gives me any information and I don't think she's the most likely scum in the room.

---------- Post automerged at 04:54 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:53 AM ----------

I continue to think that people ruling out Waco/Pie being W/W are wrong.

---------- Post automerged at 04:56 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:54 AM ----------

I really like where your head is at outside of that, when I was contemplating shots earlier and was thinking "What gives me the most information regardless of flip" Cobalt was indeed the name that come to my head other than Jarizok then decided it's not worthwhile given I still kind of think he's town and really need a scum flip here to start working with.

Makes me feel pretty comfortable with my town read on you though.

---------- Post automerged at 05:20 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:56 AM ----------

I still dislike Kai's initial vote and reasoning on Cobalt in Post #195. I actually don't hate where he's at inside Post #749, the progression behind his reads notably the Q one there is one I can follow going through his ISO. Still dislike how he entered D2 attempting to mimmick WH8 identically. Eh, I come out of the ISO not hating him as much as I thought I would, don't think I'd advocate his shot anymore.

That said KaiDASH - Need you to elaborate on a few things for me, you had Miner as a fairly strong town read earlier in the game, would like you to discuss that read with me a little more in light of your comment saying you think he's the first place to look if Jarizok flips scum. I'd also like you talk with me a little more about your read on myself.

 

Here's a question: should we press doublevoter to claim? I think narrowing down vaimes' shot with another confirm is probably more useful than them keeping quiet.

 

Q's entire attitude inside the very early game where he was playing like claimed scum still bugs me and I think it's a tactic he'd be more inclined to play as scum, I think as town he's aware that his town game is his weaker element and thus actually be trying to better it which that most certainly does not do. I didn't like his reaction towards Pie's first vote in Post #198 and the reasoning behind all the reads feel very empty. I really don't like the placements inside Post #481, several reads there I'm still struggling with and in particular find the scum read on Vaimes but the complete lack of real elaboration on it pretty scummy, the Pie placement doesn't really mesh with his stated reads before and after that post. I think the whole attitude re; "Slow climb of wagon" in Post #823 and him voting Stanari over Plotless when he scum read Plotless outside of the wagon speed feels like him trying to look good post-flip here and the switch to Kai inside Post #829 is a vote that comes out of literally nowhere, can't find any sort of scum read on Kai prior to that but I can on several other posters making this vote very hard to comprehend.

I think Pie may have pointed this out but there's a bunch of reads of Q's, that just do not fit and do not match any sort of progression. His scum read on Vaimes he's mentioned a few times earlier on, then hasn't said a single world about it until he stated he dislikes Vaimes's current reads, given how different his read on Vaimes is from the thread him never really talking about this one at all is very hard to fathom. His read on Pie goes from scum reading her, moving her to null, stating he still has a scum read on her afterwards, not mentioning her again and then stating he scum reads her today. Like, it doesn't flow naturally at all. The Kai vote similarly doesn't match his reads and his attitude re; the Plotless wagon feels like TMI and standard Q scum play of trying to make himself look good post flip.

I very much can see Q as mafia here.

Don't think it's a bad move at all, that said I'm not sure we have the luxury of time to wait for everyone to chime in and the claim to actually happen before the shot goes off, we ideally need the shot to happen soonish so we have time to assess the alignment and work towards a lynch.

---------- Post automerged at 06:03 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:02 AM ----------
Acionyx, dichotomousCreator and anyone else that might be around, thoughts on this;

Odds of Waco/Q/Pie
0 Scum; 2%
1 Scum; 18%
2 Scum; 75%
3 Scum; 5%

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Feel free to change the %'s to what you think may be the case.

---------- Post automerged at 06:06 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:05 AM ----------

I think I'd be most okay with a shot on Waco or Quiddity at the moment.

 

My Waco/Q/Pie odds:

0 scum; 8%
1 scum; 52%
2 scum; 39%
3 scum; 1%

Specifically, I think there's a quite good chance pie is town so my 2scum odds are "Waco and Q are both scum". That's less than 75% for me.
Acionyx --- Ehh...I'd heartily RECOMMEND they do, but I don't think-

actually yeah we 100% should. Otherwise we run into trouble later when I'm dead we're at LYLO and the doublevote granter claim gets CC'd. May as well collect the townclear while we can. If possible, do so before the shot, but time constraints may make this difficult.

 

OK so I said that I was completely null on Waco because literally nothing about him has pinged me at all, so can one of you explain to me why you think Waco is scum? As in, which posts are scummy, and/or which logic doesn't make sense, and/or which interactions really raise red flags to you?

Conversely, I'd like to hear some reasoning on why most of you have Fable at the top of your walls.

 

I don't see gamesolving or actual reads inside Waco's ISO, he initially has Vaimes as a weak scum read inside Post #233, Pie as a weak scum read too and a weak town read on Q combined with a weak scum read on Plotless inside Post #236. Him popping back into the thread and asking me to expand on one of the few reads we agree on (Plotless) inside Post #543 feels like scum trying to get me to do the grunt work given the flip, the huge over-focus on Pie inside the post doesn't read particularly genuine nor does the thoughts shared in Post #545 where he restates that he still doesn't feel like Vaimes is town and ends the post voting Pie.

He elaborates on his Q town read when Acio states a scum read on Q in Post #574. I dislike just about everything about his Post #750; his response towards me in there doesn't come across as town at all, his comment on Jarizok and his turn around on Pie while not really adding any new reads there really makes much more sense as scum. Him using Pie's #657 as reasoning to vote Plotless in Post #758 feels all sorts of icky given it'd have made much more sense if he's town to just state he's voting Plotless given he scum reads them and we're heading to consolidate time. In Post #958 he states a town read on Jan and then does the whole "Vaimesy got a gun" thing as his entrance post in Post #1009.

Like if you walk through his ISO he's ignored like 70% of the playerlist and the players he has commented on don't really have any real progression towards his reads on them, he stated he doesn't town read Vaimes twice during D1 (early on and late) but never really went more into it which makes his reaction towards Vaimes getting a gun even more awkward. His lack of stance on Jarizok and the way and timing of his vote on Plotless have a great deal of scum motivation towards it regardless of Jarizoks alignment.

There's just a lot there that really makes me feel good about him being mafia.

I'll go into the Fable town read another time, pretty exhausted.

 

Refresh the thread all day: Nothing

I go to sleep: Like 2 pages to read -_-"

I think there's stuff to respond to from Reg, Q, and Acio judging from my skim at the very least so give me a sec to get to it all.

 

Like if you go through Waco's ISO and look for town reads he's stated it's; Acio, Jan & Q. That's pretty much the extent of the town reads he's commented on, given myself and a lot of others inside the game had a problem of "Too many town reads D1" him being at the complete other extent doesn't feel natural? It feels like lots of his reads are him leaving options open to push later and there's not a lot of depth behind any of the reads. The fact that's coupled with him by far having the worst timing / way of shifting onto Plotiness while attempting to alleviate responsibly from the vote and case on him just makes so much sense as scum.

 

Besides stanari (I think I'd switch her for fonti) I like the PoE you have. Fonti I'll explain either tonight or before I go into work today depending on if I still have time before I have to go into work today. I think waco would be my choice for the shot though since he's the most likely of being lynched today anyway I think and I'd rather the shot get done sooner than later so we have more time to discuss and get wagons going.

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Almost everyone on that wagon? Okay that might be hyperbole but I don't think waco even did a case he did a single post where he pointed out what he didn't like about plotless and then never talked about him again but was still fine driving that lynch. Like with that in mind all the stuff with pien looks like filler to just get him to the deadline so he could get back to plotless by EoD.

---------- Post automerged at 08:11 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:08 AM ----------

Only if they're in the PoE otherwise probably better for them to stay quiet I think. If it's someone widely V read it wouldn't actually narrow anything down for vaimes.

 

My biggest gripe is that his timing hopping on the Plotless wagon looks shitty in most worlds (scum!Jarizok it really looks like deflecting from Jari's wagon, town!Jarizok it looks like lazy coasting especially when combined with his general inactivity)

---------- Post automerged at 10:19 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:18 PM ----------

EBWOP:

Not 100% sure I agree on this. If they're V read it doesn't really particularly HELP to keep it concealed, and I think I'd rather defuse possible CC headaches down the line even if they're not super likely.

 

Regfan

Where does this fit into your world where waco/pien are w/w? I feel like if you're correct there Q is probably a villager because it makes no sense to try and save waco over her in this spot. Alternatively I think it might be the other way and it's Waco/Q and Pien is a villager and that's the way I think I'm leaning right now.

---------- Post automerged at 08:30 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:27 AM ----------

I feel like we're basically telling the wolves where to shoot in that case and it's unclear if we have a doctor so that seems kinda bad?