It's kind of not really the reaction I expect anyone to have to a scum dayvig.

More explains later, remind me if still interested.

 

Hmmmmm. On the other hand, there's the whole thing where Zen is more likely to be scum if Jari flips scum as well. (That is a thing, right?)

Actually, Waco/Zen/Jari/Q is starting to look disturbingly coherent.

 

You think Waco townreads a buddy that hard?

 

Keyword being A buddy, yeah. Having ALL your buddies as null or scum is a great way to bring the rest of your team down with you.

---------- Post automerged at 09:47 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:46 AM ----------

(EBWOP: By which I mean generally speaking your buddy reads should be distributed roughly according to what would be statistically expected. Putting all the actual scum in null or scum can look very TMI as the game develops)

 

And you don't think it comes off as TMI?

Like there's townreading a buddy, and then there's saying "really don't get why people are scumreading Q" literally fifteen times.

 

Well...I do see your point, but like I said to font earlier scum will do this if they're either looking to bus (in this case the answer they want is a good case on Q to justify hopping on) or if they genuinely think the case on their buddy is weak (in this case they want a weak case in reply so they can dismiss it and have a good reason to not be on their buddy). What WAS the case on Q at this time? 'cuz I remember moving off Q because it was bad...

That's the other thing. Objectively speaking this WORKED, it got people off Q. So...

 

I kind of think I'd have prefered no extension, would have meant daystart falls on a public holiday for me and I've kind of exhausted myself going hard trying to solve this last night to finally end up feeling comfortable with the sheer majority of my reads. I'll probably just treat this as a ~48 hour night phase here I think when I throw down my vote? Alternatively we can go balls to the wall and hard lynch one of Zenzao/Jarizok.

Mostly agree with Fable in that I'm relatively confident that Zenzao is flipping mafia here and if he does that locks Q in as town, the way that Zenzao slipped onto Q postflip and the way that Q called him out for it and their subsequent interaction doesn't happen between partners in that fashion whatsoever. If Zenzao somehow flips town I'd probably recommend not to entirely rule Q out but Waco-Q interaction feels way too on the nose to be actual partners and makes much more sense as Waco using Q as town as his main read in the thread, plus I've actually found Q's posts in the last ~12? hours to be a massive improvement.

Really like Blabs analysis of how Waco/Zenzao/Jarizok makes sense as a scum team and agree with him in that Zenzao's Jarizok read was pretty forced given the stances he'd already taken inside the thread. He wouldn't have been able to move onto Plotless without being called out for it and given he was strongly town read at the time him bussing and considering end-gaming is a very real possibility. Blabs very correct in that each individual interaction in Waco-Jari, Jari-Waco, Waco-Zen, Zen-Waco, Jari-Zen and Zen-Jari all make plenty of sense as partners here. I also agree with his overall analysis in that if those two flip scum then Cobalt/Q/Fontisian are town and would be looking at a relatively similar team to the one he'd listed in Post #1516 although I'd probably sub Miners name there for Stanari's and swap Pie and Kies placements.

Stanari - I'm not really an 'emotional player' in the thread at all, even outside of it.

Vaimes - I think any kill list that has Cobalt/Kai before Zenzao is a pretty huge mistake. I think any kill list that includes Cobalt at all is a mistake too, similarly think you having Blab as the "Town read that might be wrong" over your Pie & Stanari reads are probably where you need to reassess, either that or really sell me one either being town because I know Pie decently well and I really thought her interaction with Waco is how she handles a partner even before he flipped. I'm also just not seeing the strength of this Stanari town read so, helap?

Some other things that make sense as Zenzao/Jarizok being partners;

Zenzao states a scum read on Jarizok that's largely based around Cobalt inside Post #285 which gives him a reason to always push Cobalt before Jarizok, in Post #352 he emptily states that Jarizok is starting to do something when he votes Fable and then restates that Jarizok is scummy due to association with Cobalt again in Post #534 - it's the type of read scum love to share on a partner.

The way that Jarizok town reads Zenzao purely based on the effort in the wall in Post #716 is the type of lazy read scum give a partner when they can and the read continues to be very empty in Post #1077 with the reasoning feeling even more weird given it was just after Zenzao walled Jarizok and called him mafia, pushed him on this and his answer continued to remain very vague in Post #1079.

Zenzao huge wall on Jarizok in Post #752 not being combined with a vote a time where the wagons looked to be shaping up as Plotless v Jarizok to him not actually throwing a vote down in Post #877 ~16 hours later feels like it's him holding off due to waiting for a discussion inside scum chat about what avenue they're going to take, it doesn't really match town play and if Jarizok is town and it was T/T wagons I think he'd have zero qualms voting there. Zenzao not picking up D2 on Jarizok again and him instead moving on to walling Cobalt and then voting Q while the whole time still maintaining that he's calling Jarizok mafia fits so well as a partner too.

Soooooooooooo yeahh, I think we're looking at Waco/Jari/Zenzao + 2, if I'm correct and they're both scum I imagine the two we're looking at to be something like Pie/Kai/Stanari?

 

I mean...I'm voting for Zenzao.

---------- Post automerged at 20:06 ---------- Previous post was at 20:03 ----------

Dude, I just think Stanari is overwhelmed. Same as pie.

Could be wrong, but I'll be dead by toMorrow so this is what I'm rolling with.

 

Aware you currently are, just ?? at your kill list in your post earlier.

I think the point that Zenzao doesn't vote Jarizok D1 until ~16 hours after he has walled him when it was shaping up to be Plotless v Jarizok wagons is a big one for a) Zenzao being mafia since that's pretty difficult to understand as town doing fullstop and b) Zenzao being mafia with Jarizok since Scum!Zenzao wouldn't have any hesitation voting along with his own reads on Town!Jarizok but the hold off and vote later makes plenty of sense if it's waiting for scum to plan their end of day strategy and moving with that.

 

Like. Why does scum!pie freeze? She was churning out content like a machine, and then suddenly she's like "I'm in over my head, these phases are too short for me to solve this game, I'm sorry." What specifically happened in this game for her to freeze like that as mafia? I think she could easily bullshit some cases.

Stanari is just eh. Mislynch bait, I think. I don't know if she'd purposefully play like this as scum to get an edge.

 

I'd agree they're both overwhelmed, I just don't think that's an alignment indicative tell?

Anyway, that's where I'm at. I think killing we're very likely going Zenzao->Jarizok or Jarizok->Zenzao today and tomorrow and expecting both to end up being scum flips here, not particularly concerned which order we go and also very willing to reach hard lynch and not waste a shit load of time over this. Think? we're closer to lynching Zenzao than Jarizok so;

Unvote, Vote: Zenzao

 

Jarizok has been just as absent as Waco. :/ I can't remember if he claimed V/LA or what.

---------- Post automerged at 20:11 ---------- Previous post was at 20:09 ----------

I think it's overwhelming for pie because she wants to be right. Which would be super convoluted to fake as scum, when she could instead just...not complain about the phase lengths and spin some cases. Like, tell me she couldn't bullshit a case on Kai/Cobalt/Q/Stanari. Being new here means she can even claim ignorance re: meta, so her cases won't come off as scummy for misreading people.

Is my assessment.

---------- Post automerged at 20:14 ---------- Previous post was at 20:11 ----------

Wait, why am I defending Jarizok? I was presenting reads on the assumption he was town.

I don't really care if he dies, and am willing to pursue him if Zenzao flips scum and mafia leave me alone.

Is Jarizok townreading three buddies here, Reg?

---------- Post automerged at 20:24 ---------- Previous post was at 20:14 ----------

Bit more on pie: if she's bussing Waco, then she knows she's right. There's no reason for her to go on that "woe is me I'm in a blitz game" rant, when she could just...keep trying to get Waco lynched for cred.

You could argue "she's AtE'ing to get townread!" which I'd counter with "that's silly, she'd have plenty of towncred from lynching Waco."

 

I'm not fussed here: I'm on Jarizok atm but if we want to hammer zenzao I can do that.

 

I don't know if your teeny tiny hammer is going to do much.

 

My hammer is yuge.

Everyone agrees it's a big hit at parties.

 

For the love of god, _thank you_.

 

RWBY Mafia Votal 2.7.

Zenzao [6]: Quiddity, Font, Fable, Vaimes, Acio, Reg.
Jari [5]: DC, DC, Kai, Miner, Cobalt.
Quiddity [1]: Zenzao.

Not Voting [4]: Blab, Jari, Stanari, Pienyan.

With 16 votes alive, it will be 9 votes to soft lynch and 13 votes to hard lynch.

 

Regfan

If you can coherently and convincingly explain to me why pie's freakout doesn't make her likely town, I'll listen. Given that it happened waaay before Waco started getting serious heat.

Because I don't think you're being very fair to her re: having to get used to the faster pace here. Expecting her to play as normal is ridiculous when her normal phase lengths are significantly reduced. Going from two-week deadlines to 72 is tough, especially for someone on an uninformed team, imo.

---------- Post automerged at 20:45 ---------- Previous post was at 20:44 ----------

And that concludes my defense of pie.

Hopefully she doesn't make me regret it!

 

Vote: Zenzao

 

Hi blab.

Am I zilly for defending pie?