D4 ends in 2 days and 19 hours

Timer

 

Going to dump the notes I've managed to eek out at work since there's a realistic chance I might not make it home tonight at all. I've made it through Waco's ISO and about half of Zenzaos thus far. Still want to also get around to ~5-6 living players too.

Not sure if Waco's commenting on Miners read on Zenzao occurs in the manner it did if that's W/W/W in Post #545 feels like a really weird play to make? One partner states concern with another being town and the other trying to ease his concerns? Would like others to comment a little on this interaction.

Find it pretty unlikely that Zenzao didn't try and sneak at least one scum into his top 10 reads in Post #252, given Jan/Acio/Q have flipped town, I have Vaimes/Fable/Fonti as pretty strong town that points very heavily towards killing inside Blab/Kai/Pie. Zenzao's reasoning behind his town read on Kai inside Post #298 is significantly weaker than the put forward for Q and would make sense being about a partner. Him maintaining them inside the same grouping and providing weak reasoning beind not wanting to focus on either of them inside Post #534 similarly points towards there most certainly being scum in there.

Zenzao's push and scum read on Cobalt from very early on (ie. Post #285) doesn't really read like a bussing and the way he linked Cobalt/Jarizko today while the argument of "Scum linking S-T for a mslynch" makes sense it doesn't particularly read as that? This feels like weak reasoning though.

The interaction that Fontisian initiated and Zenzao continued inside Post #298 points against her being mafia here. I don't think Zenzao puts such an elaborate answer behind why he wouldn't want a partner (Fonti) to be gunned like he did inside Post #534 which points pretty heavily towards her being town.

I can see the interaction between Kai-Zenzao about his read on him inside Post #537 -> Post #538, can also see the way he questioned Kai over his Jarizok vote fitting as distancing in Post #762

Waco's interaction with myself in Post #543 should make it pretty clear I'm town; he was trying to get me to do the grunt work there to push through the mslynch. Similarly the fact that I was the person that blew up Zenzao's gambit and his reaction towards me in Post #259 ie. Post #262 and that which folllowed it really shouldn't be hard to tell I'm town here even ignoring the fact that I'm in a different universe to my scum play at the moment; similarly wouldn't have treated the Zenzao/Fable where I spent a shitload of time finding Fable quotes in WH8 to try and convince him that Fable wasn't mafia even remotely similarly.

Pretty sure I asked you a question.

---------- Post automerged at 02:50 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:40 AM ----------

Can you talk to me about this read a little more because he's been a pretty huge blind spot for me this game particularly given I had him/jarizok as unaligned and was certain that Jarizok was mafia. Locking down a read on him would be pretty huge here.

---------- Post automerged at 02:54 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:50 AM ----------

Fontisians reaction towards Kai's comment is pretty similar to what I was thinking, it's a world apart from him moving to Pie yesterday to then moving to "Would lynch inside Reg/Miner/Blab" pool and it's a change that doesn't read as natural at all and actually very opportunistic.

---------- Post automerged at 02:55 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:54 AM ----------

The fact that I came into today with ~5 main people that I think could be mafia and 3 of them are currently voting me should be preeeeeetty telling as well particularly given how slimy both Miner & Kai's votes were.

 

I mean, you just mentioned that that Zenzao's pushing of Cobalt doesn't feel like scum linking S-T this way around yourself, so ???

Basically I was pretty sure that Zenzao was mafia with Jarizok and tied Cobalt to Jarizok to pursue Cobalt after Jarizok's flip. Then Jarizok flipped town, and I was like "oh, if Zenzao knew Jarizok was town, than he was mafia with Cobalt, tied his scumread of Cobalt to Jarizok because Jarizok's townflip would give him reason to disengage.
But it doesn't feel like Zenzao is "weakening his readwall" to disengage later and Cobalt's reaction feels unfake (that's coming from somebody that thinks Cobalt has overemphasized his lmao-speak) even considering that Fable got townread for his reaction, even considering the -towncred Cobalt gets for pointing out how he shouldn't be pushed because of Zenzao's bad readwall.

 

blab, are you actually town???

townreading everyone in the game is too next level for me.

 

yes but i've only made it through half of Zenzaos ISO yet which doesn't involve his bigger push on Cobalt and haven't got through Cobalts ISO yet so wanted to read your thoughts there to compare when I get to it. So thanks.

 

Hmm, ok, Regfan.

Kai
I mean, having a townread on everyone is basically the same thing as null-reading everyone.
After Jarizok's flip I felt like that Cobalt was probably scum, and maybe one scum each in Regfan/pienyan(probably pienyan,tbh); miner/kai.
It's just, I didn't feel that way after actually reading Cobalt and the Regfan/pienyan mess.

I'm really busy today so I had to get out something this morning, even if it's waffling waffle but I'll probably have more defintive stances later toDay. Probably won't be able to play til after midnight today, though.

And yes, I'm town.

 

Kiiiiiinda don't like Reg pointing to interactions with scum that aren't unfakeable as hard evidence he's town. I could believe everything he said was staged, or at least arose from competent scumplay where the scum's town facades intersect realistically.

 

it's a difference of degrees, sure.

 

Can anyone tell me if blab is the type to powerwolf?

 

Finished going through Stanari's / Kai's / Zenzaos / Waco's ISO's and think Kai's very probably just scum here; going over his reads and progressions throughout the game I still find his initial scum read and reasoning on Cobalt inside Post #195 really bad and if Cobalts actually town here that makes all 3 scum reads of his [Cobalt/Q/Jarizok] in Post #325 town players, he adds a weird comment about his read on me in Post #418 and then adds Plotless to his scum reads in Post #749.

His comment about Q and myself in Post #755 has a lot of scum motivation behind it in that he allows him an easy transition between players and reasoning to vote on two mslynches and his reasoning behind his read on me in Post #833 combined with instantly voting me D2 doesn't feel like a natural read at all.

In Post #1154 he's advocating a shot on Jarizok when there was a few people suggesting Waco which has a lot of scum motivation towards it, particularly given Waco was a rolecop and his stance about Jarizok!Flip alignments in Post #1162 where he lists Miner alongside Jarizok with his explanation in Post #1223 being arguably his largest explanation for any read inside the game feels a lot like what Pozzai did with X=Y inside Jurassic Park where he was comfortable talking about a scenario he knew never to be a real thing anyway.

He states he prefers a Jarizok lynch post-Waco flip in Post #1506 while stating he's okay with Zenzao too in Post #1553 when the wagon really started picking up on him despite a) Never saying anything about Zenzao previously and b) Being pretty insistent earlier in the day phase that the Jarizok flip is something he thought was needed. This makes plenty of sense as him not wanting to tie himself being on the CW to a scum lynch.

Him voting Pie inside Post #1846 yesterday and then transitioning towards voting me today in Post #2006 where he tries to bring up "scum having a mechanical advantage" when a) We already know one of scums remaining roles and b) This was described as a very basic game meaning that nothing like 'Scum with an extra kill / life' is going to exist here feels very disingenuous. Him suggesting it's optimal to lynch myself over Blab/Miner in Post #2019 is him buddying up to DC here and sneaking onto the wagon here.

Pretty much;

1) His reasoning behind his Cobalt read has been consistently scummy and Cobalt read vanishing entirely is him adjusting his reads to match the thread as scum, it's the sort of thing that when people start scum reading Cobalt again I imagine him instantly chiming up.

2) His Pie vote and progression towards voting me here while not really commenting on it at all even when I've asked him about it reads as very opportunistic. This isn't him genuinely attempting to solve the situation at all.

3) Every player that Kai's pushed throughout the game has been confirmed/flipped town other than Cobalt who is probably town; it's not implausible that he's just been very wrong thus far but if you look specifically at the player he's scum read it's most largely the weaker/easier mslynchable players as town.

4) His reasoning behind Q/Myself had a lot of scum motivation behind it is the typical way of scum leaving themselves openings to push multiple town players "Q was mslynched and flipped town, now I have a reason to push Regfan".

5) His stance on Zenzao/Jari has plenty of scum motivation behind it and doesn't read like a genuine read of the situation from him at all and there's nearly no interaction between himself and the flipped scum either direction.

Vote: Kai

Still want to try and get through everyone else but unlikely to get a lot of time this day phase.

Stanari joins my lock town group of [Fable, DC, Vaimes with Fontisian slightly behind those three, well four now]. I'll go into that read later if I can but it's primarily based around Zenzaos interactions with her as well as her response towards how it played out as well as her attempts at piecing it together and gamesolve after that. There's a chance I may be playing the rest of the game from my phone outside of work.

 

Bah, I still feel like Reg's shit is scummy but at the same time he's really snookering himself with that town block unless Stanari is also scum.

I guess that means we're in Reg/Stanari or Kai/??? world, with Miner/blab bad in both of these?

I...guess that also probably means we're not in Reg/Stanari world.

Hmm.
pienyan --- Assuming Reg is scum and we follow his plan to lynch outside of {Reg, Fable, dC, Vaimes, fontisian, Stanari}, how do you think he is planning to win?

 

Read through blab and I'm okay with him, his progression on Zen specifically (1516 for example ) seemed genuine and I think there are things that he could have jumped on that he hasn't that looks good for him. Like unless that's w/w which I doubt cuz I'm village reading cobalt still too (for now at least we'll see if that holds on reread) I would have expected blab to pursue cobalt more by now not come out with a stronger V read on him. Same with him defending fonti, he's just not giving himself many avenues to win here. Also personally don't think he'd put two of his wolf partners in the town section so early.

 

Because it's not like there isn't the possibility that one of those 6 are scum. I can think of 3 names in there that, if we lynch through Kai, pie, blab, etc. I would one hundred percent look at and be like that could definitely be scum.

 

I missed this before.

feelsbadman

 

So to start, I'm pretty sure we're in a game with 5 witches.

My current view of the game is something like this:
Stanari, Fable, DC, Vaimes
Pienyan, Blab

Regfan, Cobalt, Font, Miner

I don't want to lynch the top row this game. Middle row I'm reasonably sure they aren't witches but whatever. So overall, I feel confident in saying there's 0-1 scum in this group.

To be specific, I'm sure Vaimes and Fable are never scum here while DC and Stanari just don't make much sense as scum, given how things played out and seem to be going.

The entire pienyan situation I find extremely problematic, but she's probably town or ???

blab I'm a bit more on the fence about and do need to reread him and think on it, but gut instinct says if he was scum he'd make at least a token effort at finding someone to scumread alongside me.

As for the bottom four, it's ranked in rough order of likelyhood in my view.

I'd be surprised if we're not lynching into one of them today really, but any expansion from me won't be until tomorrow.

 

So, good people of the thread, riddle me this: If Regfan isn't trying very hard to leave enough mislynches open to win, who IS?

Oh, wait, I know!

Lynch: Miner

 

Cobalt

Can let me know where you fall on Reg/Pien when you get the chance?

 

I still think [blab, Cobalt, dichotomousCreator, Fable, fontisian, Stanari and Vaimes] contains at maximum one scum (DC/Fable/Stanari/Vaimes are just always town and I don't really see Fonti-Blab, Fonti-Cobalt or Cobalt-Blab as that likely at all) which means if we're dealing with a team of five then there's two inside of [Adult, KaiDASH, pienyan] and if we're dealing with four then there's still one-two inside that second grouping; that's where we should be lynching inside. And in there there's a lot of problems with Kai's play throughout this game though I still need to get through a Miner re-read at some point during this day phase.

Wouldn't mind hearing some people talk about my read on my elaborated read on Kai, particularly the issue with his Cobalt read given his post recent post is him picking up again but it being absent for the last ~10 RL days inside his posting is a huge red flag.

Miners "I can think of three names in there" being super vague is awful too.

---------- Post automerged at 07:48 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:43 AM ----------

Kai having Fontisian as the third most likely scum player in the game here with the above being his only comments on her in the game is pretty strong proof that his stances and reads are scum trying to find mslynches; placement of Miner after her and the re-appearance of the Cobalt read point to the same too.

---------- Post automerged at 07:50 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:48 AM ----------

Okay, with that I'm out. I'll be back in ~24 hours probably.

Will try and follow along on my phone but not really enthused to do a lot of phone posting.

 

Yeah so quite sure regfan and font are just scum here.

This is pretty much exactly how one of the old mini's went down, where jan and font were scum. Complete with the constant fonti bamboozle plays and me jumping in her pocket.

 

Lol.

You do you bud.