Good lord, you write too much for some people, accept it or stay mad forever I guess.

 

You know this about my meta, Pie can confirm it too. As scum I consider my partners in two worlds a) Weaker players that I don't think are going to make end-game and someone I'll intentionally treat my posts around to look good once they flip, distancing/bussing etc. or b) Stronger players that I'm planning on taking with me to endgame town since I don't ever play for a 3 way LYLO. Take a look at this game and tell me how my actions with any of the flipped scum fits that? I had a weak town read on Waco early game which I reread and looked into and then pushed to lynch him? That doesn't match my "Weak partner buss", I had Zenzao as a strong town read D1 and then dropped him to null D2, this fits what? I had Cobalt as a strong town read D1, then continuously dropped this read down throughout the game?

Like this pretty clearly isn't my scum play.

 

Yeah, I don't see it.

Highlight it for me, please.

---------- Post automerged at 00:56 ---------- Previous post was at 00:55 ----------

My point is, who would actually believe that he didn't now Adult > Miner if it was in his sig and he had the same avatar, publicly available to all?

I would like to say that I really dislike Miner's name/sig being messed with during a game. I don't actually know when Palindrome changed Miner's sig from "I'm Miner" back to "I'm an Adult."

 

Wouldn't have to write so much if people read my posts in the first place.

Will do when I get home

Everyone did? Other than Jarizok then and myself now it's not been something that anyone has brought up? But look back at it, Cobalt had to have known that was Miner, why's he doing that? It's because he's distancing there.

 

Seriously? She's hard-scumreading you, dude.

---------- Post automerged at 01:00 ---------- Previous post was at 00:59 ----------

I really don't think that was distancing. Cobalt was busy, and I'd buy that he didn't pay much attention to the signup thread where we talked about it + Miner's avatar when he was catching up.

---------- Post automerged at 01:02 ---------- Previous post was at 01:00 ----------

Yeah, Cobalt /in'd in the signup thread before Miner announced his "condition," and I doubt Cobalt looked at that thread again aside from when Newcomb tagged everyone, so.

 

She's also not read my posts properly for some time now? I imagine when she does and actually goes through my ISO and looks at it properly she'll come out with the exact opposite read. She's just been caught up on the "Emotionally manipulative" comment which will be discussed later and not something that needs to be done inside the thread.

Strongly disagree but there's multiple other points we can discuss when I get home.

 

But this is eh.

Posssssible that Cobalt just hard-skimmed and missed this, but eh.

 

I mean uh... ^

---------- Post automerged at 01:01 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:15 AM ----------

Pie/Vaimes, lets run through this here; D1 I stated a strong town read on 9 players inside the game being (DC/Vaimes/Cobalt/Pie/Zenzao/Miner/Jan/Acio/Blab) then going into D2 I dropped 4 of these reads and if you look at what those were (Zenzao, Adult, Cobalt and Pie) it should be beyond obvious that I'm town here. There's no motivation to strongly town reading your partners D1 and then just...stopping and instead maintaining town reads on ~5 players that include possibly no or just one scum inside them, it's not how I play and it's not how anyone plays as mafia; you can also read inside my posts and read the actual progression behind how I determined which of my strong town reads I was confident in and which I dropped and notice a very natural and open thought process, if you want to talk about any of these specifically I'm more than willing.

But for you to call me scum you'd have to be stating that I stuck every partner in my town reads D1 while having a weak town read on Waco...so what? I'm playing a "powerwolf" game and then just deciding "Nah, lets not do that and lets drop those town reads" on D2 instead? Like uhhhhhhh, no? Opposite of how I play as scum, opposite of how anyone plays as scum, it's just not a thing.

---------- Post automerged at 01:02 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:01 AM ----------

I'll grab links and go into this more when I get home.

---------- Post automerged at 01:11 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:02 AM ----------

^

That was the VC when I changed my vote, so my vote changed it from a "4-3 Pie" to a 4-3 "Cobalt" so all of this "You had no choice, Cobalt was getting lynched" shit is dumb as is the "You'd have been crucified lynching Pie" when I could easily pass it off as a 'mechanically optimal move' and 'fits with my reads' as mafia. Not saying that I was confident in the change of vote, nor am I saying it was entirely due to my own reasoning, I was more convinced from Fable and to a lesser degree Kai than anyone else but if you actually look at my several posts throughout the day phase you could see me trying to work out which world is more likely and ending up on Cobalt.

 

No, I'm pretty sure voting pie over Cobalt would have ensured we lynched both of you.

---------- Post automerged at 02:23 ---------- Previous post was at 02:23 ----------

("both of you" being you and Cobalt)

---------- Post automerged at 02:24 ---------- Previous post was at 02:23 ----------

Like, I already felt weird about how you handled Cobalt earlier in the game, of course I wouldn't buy your excuses for siding with him there.

Can't really speak for others.

 

Or as dumb as "point at a votal as concrete evidence"! This is exactly the sort of argument I'd expect if your thought process was "pie is still the majority wagon but I think Cobalt will end up being lynched, so it's not too late to hop on Cobalt but it will be soon". In point of fact, given that pie had just shown up and made good posts and Fable had just made it clear which side he was on, that's around the point I'd start bussing Cobalt as scum too.

Also if you spent the whole day trying to work out who was most likely, what was with that post where you said pie was very likely mafia (#2467)? That doesn't fit with the narrative of "trying to work out which world is more likely", it fits with "very much thinking pie is more likely". Which is where all the weirdness is coming from, because 20 posts later you're posting "very much thinking cobalt is more likely"

---------- Post automerged at 04:31 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:29 PM ----------

Not 100% in agreement about pie, I think Reg COULD have in some worlds stayed on pie and been alright. My argument is more that Reg moved when it became apparent this was not one of those worlds.

Hmm. Okay, maybe it's less "Cobalt's gonna die, better bus" and more "Cobalt's gonna die EVENTUALLY, better bus". Like, Vaimes has a good point in that you have much more incentive to bus than usual, given that Cobalt was guaranteed to die either immediately or the next day. So you'd be guaranteed cred for a bus.

 

Shrug? If you really think I'd try the exact same tactic against you as mafia twice (ie. Treat Cobalt as Nacho) in the early game period you're pretty mistaken. I'd also consider yesterday a situation where as scum I'd be like "Buss and still look bad with an extra town clear and a scum member down" or "Don't buss and look bad with a mslynch gone and the ability to sell it to most people based on it fitting my prior reads" where I'd just night kill you and endgame? i'll respond to DC and look at this properly in ~1 hour when I get home.

 

I am kinda strongly leaning towards 4 scum, because
a) only exactly one info role shot
b) 4 scum powerroles
c) shooting Kai fits with roleblocker having to NK
d) Just my estimate of gamebalance

Cobalt probably just not thinking about the consequences and just parroting your line about 5 scum makes more sense than 13/5 imo.

---------- Post automerged at 02:21 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:19 AM ----------

but assuming 5 scum is probably healthier, it's just that scum!Reg/team-of-4 makes the most sense.

---------- Post automerged at 02:23 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:21 AM ----------

I am at:
Vaimes is town
Fable is town
pienyan is town
dC is town

Also my feelings say Stanari is just town.
Miner has, eh, also some things that look pretty town, and also
in a 4-scum-team Regfan fits just so much better than miner.

Going to read Stanari and miner tomorrow, because if we have 5 lock-town we always win this, regardless of 5 scum or for scum.

---------- Post automerged at 02:23 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:23 AM ----------

regardless of 5 or 4 scum

 

Huh.

Huuuuuhhh.

Huuuuuuuuuuuuuuhhhh.

---------- Post automerged at 02:40 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:36 AM ----------

Kai's role being effectively a mix of a doc and a DOB is a pretty strong role and makes 5 scum without daytalk the most plausible scenario. I'd really like you to explain your even consideration of a scum team of 4 with me as the last scum because I was online when he made his initial claim and instantly asked him to quote where he breadcrumbed / why he handles the role lime did where he had no answer. This is absolutely not something up can think played out in that manner? And it's not a read that matches your prior thoughts or how you handled yesterday?

---------- Post automerged at 02:40 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:40 AM ----------

Like convince me any of those are real thoughts?

 

Disagree. Thanks to how Kai's ability worked, shooting Kai is way better than roleblocking him because it nets an extra kill.

Also blab going for 4scum world as scum!blab feels weird? I dunno. Looking forward to reread here, feels relevant. Still think 5scum is more likely b/c of the symmetry of "rolecop/backup rolecop/roleblocker/backup roleblocker" and the fact that backup roleblocker is weird if it's firing blindly if the only rolecop dies, but that might just be "how I'd do it" and not "how Newcomb does it"

 

Man I just missed my train stop making that post FML.

 

Hmm, I didn't even assume a backup-rolecop when I thought of 5-scum, that's even more powerful. I assumed Kai was shot because scum (like Cobalt) didn't buy the 1-shot-Doctor. A roleblocker+1 could have just blocked Kai and shoot whoever but a sole roleblocker had a significant incentive to shoot Kai. Kind of assuming one action per player, though, might not be true.

 

I guess I figured that they'd be way more likely to leave Kai alive and mislynch him in that scenario. It seems odd to take a shot at a widely scumread player purely because of a weird claim...unless they were afraid he was secretly a cop I guess? But at the same time, if I were scum looking at this I'd assume PR!Kai would have claimed vanilla instead of some weird one-shot doctor thing.

---------- Post automerged at 06:31 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:04 PM ----------

EBWOP: Or, y'know, actually claimed his PR. My probability assessment for what a town PR does during massclaim is something like claim their PR > claim Vanilla >>>>>> claim a similar but less threatening PR >> claim an unrelated PR

Plus an investigative that fakeclaims during a massclaim has a nasty tendency to not be believed (even moreso than a protective, who at least might stop a kill and be able to prove themselves that way). See: What happened to our "friend" Cobalt :v. So no, I don't think I'd be inclined to off Kai based on that claim. Honestly I'd probably buy it just because if it IS false it's stupid gambitting town that will probably implode itself.

 

I mean, in my reads Kai was already unaligned with cobalt and he looked good yesterday so I don't think he was that mislynchable. I wouldn't have, at least.

I maintain think 13-5 is already scumsided and a all-powerrole scumteam vs. a not-that-strong town doesn't fit, but well, let's approach it from the other side:

Vaimes, Fable, pienyan, dC are town (can explain any singular read):

possible scumteams:
miner/Regfan
miner/Stanari
Stanari/Regfan

these all seem less likely than Regfan solo imo. Maybe Stanari/miner, but eh...

The important part of my post was that if we can agree on 5 lock-town we win either way.

---------- Post automerged at 03:44 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:37 AM ----------

I looked at the passage again and why again could that not play out that way?
Cobalt claims town!mechanics!oracle as scum!mechanics!oracle.
Regfan face-palms.
Regfan pushes him.
Others push him harder.
Cobalt comes in with a Tracker claim. That does look like something you would have collaborated with.

 

This shows pretty much zero actual thought from you.

Cobalts claim stating there's 5 mafia inside the game means that if a situation like a F5 or F3 occurs and there's not another flipped scum or two (ie. 5 alive and no scum flips before then or 3 alive and only 1 scum flip before then) then Cobalt becomes confirmed mafia. This means that you thinking it's a world of 4 with it being Cobalt+Me means you think that I set him up a claim where he can't endgame and that I'd be endgaming myself when there's already a lot of people that think that Cobalt+Me is a thing.

This is not a logical thought from you to have.

 

Yeah. I'm inclined to agree with those four, and...I mean, if Vaimes is to be believed then Miner is town so that'd be more or less that. I'm not 100% sold on that, but I AM kind of sold on town!Stanari so shrug.

This content from blab also looks a lot less frantic than I'd be expecting from scum right now, it's just kind of quietly like "here's what town has to do to win, here's how close we are to it". Especially when town is in a good position, I feel like scum!blab is PoEing himself here and so we almost don't need to worry about that.

---------- Post automerged at 06:49 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:48 PM ----------

I'm pretty sure item 2 was "Regfan face-palms"

I'm pretty sure that implies you didn't set Cobalt up with the claim at all, and in fact were quite upset with it.