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"This is probably NAI for Reg, but I think he's town for it, also I know absolutely nothing about his scum meta but this is what he'd do if he were scum."

I'm gonna be so mad if I lose to this.

---------- Post automerged at 20:56 ---------- Previous post was at 20:55 ----------

Putting more than half of your team in the same tier for wine (which, in this case, is the light townreads tear, so they're not even null) isn't something scumbalt would think to do.

 

Stanari

There is a chance we're dealing with 5 wolves and not 4, who do you think is with miner?

 

And no, it's more common for scum to spread their partners out. The null tiers are the only exception, because it's easier to avoid having a read than committing to one on a partner.

But we're not talking about a nullread here.

 

...okay, now THIS is interesting. Because this opinion locks out "lynch scum!Miner, then dC" which causes scum!Reg to lose if scum!Miner is lynched today (since it suggests I'm not scum and thereby suggests blab's not scum either)

I'm not sure WHAT to think about that. "Reg is faking it" seems lazy, and risky since even if he is other people buying his fake reasoning carries the same risk. It might mean we're in Miner/blab world, but then blab's proposed lynch plan probably leads to that world losing as well. I could buy that his plan was to lynch scum!Miner and then reassess in a way that doesn't cause him to lose, but...

alright, out of blab/Miner/Reg here are possible team combinations (assuming 5scum; I think all three are possible solos in 4scum worlds and are much easier to sort out there)
- blab/Miner: Discussed above
- blab/Reg: Loses to blab's proposed lynch plan
- Miner/Reg: Requires me to be lynched before Miner in order to win, thanks to Reg's not w/w comment

One option is to lynch Miner. The other premier option is to test blab's townbloc by running me over first (when I flip this will demonstrate that it was correct and thus that blab is town since otherwise he was advocating for his own loss). So basically:
- If we lynch Miner first, we can run over blab/Reg
- If we lynch me first, we can infer blab is town and run over Miner/Reg

These mostly lead to similar outcomes, but the former loses to me failing to be sufficiently town and getting mislynched instead of the last scum, and the latter loses to blab successfully gambling that his lynch plan won't be followed.

If I'm advocating the former, it's because empirical evidence suggests I am not good at avoiding being mislynched :v

---------- Post automerged at 10:59 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:59 AM ----------

(EBWOP: Oh yeah and those all lose to scum!Stanari but whatever at this point. I think I'm not going to be able to beat scum!Stanari regardless)

 

Vaimes - I don't consider putting them in light-town all that different from putting them in null. I don't think that's the reasoning I want to decide the game on, we can talk more once you've done your reading though. I'm at work and promised myself I'd cut down posting here.

---------- Post automerged at 08:17 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:10 PM ----------

Man, all this discussion about plans that involve yourself dying continues to be ????

---------- Post automerged at 08:22 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:17 PM ----------

Fable, helap? What world are we actually likely looking at here (and saying a world of 4 isn't the answer)?

 

Me dying is the worst outcome from my perspective and therefore the one that should receive the most planning? This isn't complicated. Besides, plans built around me not dying essentially boil down to "great let's lynch Miner/blab/Regfan and win gg games over guys". If I was gonna go that route there wouldn't even be much point to posting any more. Hence, a plan that still works even IF I fail to not get lynched is preferable (especially since otherwise it's very obviously my fault town lost if I get done in)

 

dC/Miner is my guess for now.

Beyond that? I think the rest of you all look good in way or another, like would stanari really go on about how cobalt is trying to pocket her if she's on his team? And I don't want to think you're a wolf because if I spent all this time trying to keep you and pein from fighting and even doing the gladiator thing just for you to be a wolf that would actually crush me. So I just really REALLY need dC/miner to be correct cuz otherwise I'm lost as shit.

 

DC - But wouldn't uh, re-reading Blab/Miner/Me, looking at our interactions with the flipped scum, the flipped scums interaction with us and things like that be a better use of time then "Lets do this plan because Reg said that Blab/Miner aren't a thing and I also think that Blab/Reg aren't because he said that!" Like you're focusing far too little on what's happened throughout the entire game here.

---------- Post automerged at 08:32 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:31 PM ----------

And your "I'm not beating Scum!Stanari" but not...looking even into the possibility is just ?? Like, if you're town you're not trying to actually solve the game here, you're just trying to create a kill list that beats what the consensus thinks is happening.

 

I'm pretty sure I'm at

Vaimes
pie

Fable

Stanari

dC
blab
Reg

I think that I'd be willing to lose to pie.

If Vaimes is scum here, he has seriously improved his scumgame within the last 2-3 months. I mean, just go look at Mountainous and you'll see the differences. So yeah, basically willing to lose to him too.

Fable is slightly below them in the "I'd be okay to lose to him, but I'd regret not taking him more seriously in lylo." I think he's town, the way he's gone about this game is reminiscent of WH8, and his paranoia today actually makes me feel better about him? I think? But fuck endgames, pretty much everyone starts to look sketchy. Except Vaimes. Because this ain't scum!Vaimes.

Stanari is someone that I'd really like to participate more. Like based on spew and interactions, she's town, but if we just base everything on individual play alone she'd probably be one of the names on the chopping block today. I really can't figure out where she's at at all. Definitely think that, if I'm wrong about Reg, she should be reconsidered within the lynch pool.

dC- Kind of not buying the whole "I'm going to get mislynched so let's lynch me first to disprove possible worlds." His proposed lynch path is... uh... pretty bad. I'd be pretty meh about lynching here today.

blab- Needs to talk more? Like, he's been very quiet these past few days, and the few times he's popped in with walls or whatever I'm just like... okay anyone can probably make that wall. I'd be willing to lynch here today.

Reg- He's recovered a little from daystart, but I still think this is scum. I don't think any amount of "reevluation" or "Reconsideration" or whatever to try and project towniness is going to make me believe that his D3 onwards does not come from scum in light of pie and Cobalt's alignments. I'd be happy to lynch here today.

 

/tencharacters

---------- Post automerged at 21:42 ---------- Previous post was at 21:38 ----------

Yeah, the scumteam is not Cobalt/Waco/Zenzao/Miner/dC.

 

Are you fucking with me vaimes?

 

Cobalt probably would have worried about looking good and needed to have at least ONE buddy in his scumreads. Which would have to be blab.

blab is a good scumplayer when he has the time for it, and last time I ISO'd him there wasn't anything ruling him out as being partners with any of the flipped mafia. blab gambling with his life is whatever.

---------- Post automerged at 21:44 ---------- Previous post was at 21:44 ----------

Not even a little bit.

 

Then can you give me a reason for anybody being a wolf with reasoning deeper than cobalt didn't put them next to each other on reads list?

 

I'm kinda burnt out on this game, honestly. I've built reads, I'm largely standing by what those reads are, I don't focus on the entire game because for MOST of the game scum are successfully hiding. I'm only interested in the bits where I think they aren't, and I've already mostly talked about those.

Also, uh. Your opening post contained a big thing saying why you wouldn't consider Stanari as scum and boiled the possible scum down to three candidates. That's not trying to solve the game either, that's DECLARING it solved.

What I'm doing is similar, it's essentially declaring that either it's solved or I can't solve it and that given my flip clears someone else me getting lynched is actually not a huge negative for town. Like sure we lose me, but we probably would have lost blab otherwise so it's more or less an even trade.

(although this new hard anti-align between myself and Miner potentially means the same result can be obtained by lynching Miner instead)

Like. Your readstyle is big picture, and mine is focusing on a few pivotal items. I don't think I'm necessarily wrong for that.

---------- Post automerged at 11:51 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:50 AM ----------

(EBWOP: Disagree blab gambling with his life is whatever. Or moreover, maybe if it was just HIS life but he's kind of gambling with the entire game there for...what benefit as scum, exactly? That only makes sense to me if his buddy is in a secure position, so not Reg/Miner)

 

-points to posts talking about Reg-

---------- Post automerged at 21:53 ---------- Previous post was at 21:52 ----------

The serious answer is I dunno man.

Cobalt/Reg stuff at the beginning of the game was super fishy, and maybe I've been letting that cloud my Regfan read all game, plus him tunneling on pie and then claiming he wasn't is ??? I flat-out don't get it.

 

So your wolf team is Reg and who exactly?

 

Looked at a couple of blab readslists.

Spoiler

Townreading two flipped scum. Potentially three, if blab and dC are buddies. Probbbably rules out dC/blab? Top-townreading more than half your team is pretty bold.

Spoiler

Can't really take away anything from this. Minor distancing, if I quint really really hard, but it feels like a stretch.

Spoiler

Decent reads, good shot suggestions. And his anti-alignments are correct.

---

Man, that did not help at all.

 

Neat. Sticking with dC/Miner then.

 

I guess that depends on whether or not we have four or five mafia.

---------- Post automerged at 22:03 ---------- Previous post was at 22:00 ----------

Who's even alive.

Vaimes
pie
Fable
dC
Stanari
blab
Reg
Miner

Reg can only really work with Fable, Stanari, or blab. Fable's been kinda towny but mostly had a lot of slapfights with the scumteam, Stanari isn't really playing to any sort of wincon and with scum likely not having Daychat, I just ??? she doesn't seem to be taking any Nightchat suggestions, unless her team is telling her to keep doing what she's doing.

And then blab kinda fits on every team under the sun, so.

---------- Post automerged at 22:04 ---------- Previous post was at 22:03 ----------

dC
blab
Reg
Miner

Why can't we lynch all of these.

 

Oi, promise me you're still lynching Miner after I flip :v

---------- Post automerged at 12:06 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:05 PM ----------

Welcome to the conversation! Now use the anti-aligns you've espoused to build a lynch plan that lynches most of these and clears the remainder through anti-alignment.