Hrm.

I...think...that lynching Miner/blab will not lose us the game and lynching Miner/Regfan will not lose us the game.

I am not sure if we should just do one of those and then reevaluate, do just Miner and then reevaluate, or reevaluate now. I still have everyone else as towny at this point.

 

I have a note that says there was something on p. 3 that I was townreading blab for but hell if I can figure out what it was!

---------- Post automerged at 09:44 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:40 PM ----------

It actually really confuses me that blab was a fairly strong consensus townread early on and now that's evaporated? Scumreads here are mostly PoE/associative, correct?

 

You're saying you don't have the tools to notice an incorrect read but..you've not tried using the tools you have available. Like you've done minimal interaction analysis from flipped scum <-> living players that you scum read and living players that you're not as confident on. You've not really looked through the QT's I provided or anything. Like if you're town here providing kill lists involving yourself and me here instead of discussing them is just..not really playing to your win condition.

 

So everyone thinks miner is a wolf and he has no votes right now.

That probably means something?

 

I don't find those tools particularly useful, and last time I did interaction analysis the result was a hard clear on Cobalt >_>

I will attempt to do something more useful tonight, but I don't expect any of my current townreads to be overturned.

 

I gotta sit down tonight and actually devote some time to this game.
Regfan; I don't know if I'll be around then and if I am I don't know if I'll be in any position to have an actual convo about stuff.

 

Preemptive apology if this has been brought up already, also preemptive apology for spamposting lol.

This is kind of an interesting post? If Reg is scum this is a play for control but if Reg is town this is a play for townreads?

Hmm.

Originally I thought this might be +town Reg but Cobalt strikes me as the kind of person who would pull this with a scumbuddy so I dunno.

...yeah, on second thought I have no idea what this post means.

 

I was gonna do a vote analysis thing but everyone has largely voted with each other the entire game, like wagons have not been close at all.

This is kinda why I don't like the soft/hard lynch system (though I'm not sure it actually changed much in this case?) you can get way more information when you allow wagons to be close and don't have to worry about getting to a certain number just to make a lynch happen.

 

Give me a % chance of you likely being here / able to talk. If it's pretty low I'll probably not rush home and get a few things done before then, if it's pretty high I can do those afterwards or tomorrow after work.

 

Last I checked, Miner had at least one vote

 

I think pretty objectively the night kills make more sense coming from DC this game than anyone else, I also think this is probably a point that's not been discussed enough; the Q kill in particular probably wasn't a result of him saving and probably a direct shot in which case DC has the most motive given Q didn't really get / agree with the town reads on DC. There's also an argument that the other kills (Jan/Acio/Kai) are all on players that have more intimate knowledge of DC's play albeit I think most of those kills make sense from others too.

 

Anyone have Cobalt-insulting-scumbuddies meta or is that too specific?

 

I haven't played with Jan before I don't think? I am also 100% convinced that the Kai shot was a result of knowing Kai's role and nothing else.

 

Sometimes I feel like dC and rolecop things are TMI.

 

(EBWOP: Also my NKs have traditionally been to lock town players into bad reads, see FTL Mafia where I waited to shoot Acio until he said I was probably town)

 

Yeah, I've said this too. It feels like at some point he slipped by referring to a backup rolecop rather than a backup roleblocker which was actually flipped and then just decided to double down on it and try and cover it by pushing it as a 'strong theory'.

 

Why the hell would they kill Kai if they didn't know his role was exactly Babysitter, and why the hell would they know that without having a backup rolecop that took over from the one that flipped early?

Like, if you can convince me Kai was worth killing over confirmed town Vaimes without specifically knowing it'd be a two-for-one, then sure.

 

I don't think it's impossible that they read 1-s doc claim as downplaying a more powerful PR?

 

This. If the scum team is a team of 5 they'd be aware we'd super underpowered and realise the most logical scenario is that someone has either under-claimed or fake claimed VT. The most likely scenario would be the "1-shot doctor" being more then that making him a pretty clear night kill choice; there's also the fact that he was never with Cobalt making him an even clearer kill choice. This doesn't require a "rolecop" for the scum team to work out and you brought up backup rolecop long before Kai's death so...yeah?

 

As far as I can tell, the presence of backup rolecop spec stems from Cobalt getting his PRs mixed up in his claim? Which is kind of maybe interesting.