On that, we are in agreement.

 

Forgot about Cobalt, but I didn't see Von/Jan as particularly serious bids. I did see Jari's as such.

Also, the point is to make scum shoot someone they'd rather take to endgame and leave alive someone else they'd rather shoot. You're forgetting that in addition to clearing the mislynch we also get a doublevote for town which is not inconsiderable.

Like, I feel like aiming the Priest check manually and giving lump to someone else is strictly better if we're just going to toss it? If you scumread someone you shouldn't lump them, you should just lynch them.

 

We're never going come to a consensus of three different people to lynch, check and lump in a Day. Attempting to do so would increase the chance of the priest going rogue as well. And, there's a chance we be wrong on townreading the lump, which is a problem because it's most potent in scum's hands.

Trying to use the lump to hit scum is the best we can do because it either a.outs scum, and allows us to look at their interactions or b.clears someone we were probably going yo mislynch and forces scum to shoot them before lylo (as opposed to someone like me or newcomb).
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To be clear, I'm going to try to lynch my strongest scumread, but if I can't get them lynched or if they're one of two strong scumreads, I'm going to lump them. And that's what everyone should be doing.
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@Gemma, come do things.

 

Hmmm.

Wouldn't we more or less achieve the same thing by just always voting to lump the lynch target (i.e. pretend lump doesn't exist) and directing the check, though? And I feel like that's got to be suboptimal, surely, or why is lump even in the game?

Oh yeah, also, back on topic: Why didn't you want to explain the Jari TMI when you initially cast the vote?

 

It's been tried before without success. It's much easier to let people use thier votes as they want to.

It was late at night, I was tired, and my laptop had just died.

 

...ugh, I think this is town!font. Mostly the fact that the Jari switch checks out and scum who want to do that sort of thing but have OOG reasons hindering them usually just don't post at all (and wait until they can vote and justify at the same time) rather than posting the vote and fleeing. Newcomb's point about lynching font D1 being a larger potential waste pushes it over the line.

Unvote

Which of course means I have no fucking idea what I want to do. Again. >_>.

I mean I could lynch Jari but I kinda think this is town!Jari too and as a result I'd rather lump him (since a bunch of other people are scumreading him, so it's kind of a compromise thing where I acknowledge people want him verified but don't agree to him being killed)

oh wait, duh, I wanted to see where this went:

Lynch: Delphine

 

I feel like you're both half right and that a happy medium is the answer here. I think fonti's right insofar as the lump is most dangerous in wolf hands, disproportionate to how powerful it is in town hands, but dC's correct that directing the Lump at someone you're pretty heavily scumreading is a waste.

I see the Lump as like, night kill confusion / deterrence. Depending on if we mislynch or not, witches are looking at either 9 or 10 NK targets. They need to hit the Priest, they need to SPK people who are dangerous to them, and they need to kill villagers who are not mislyncahble. That's already a crowded room, and if the Lump is on town and soft cleared, that adds another person who's got to die. Additionally if we miss today they've got to worry about the angel save.

The idea is to saddle wolves with so much they need to do with their NK that no option is "optimal" / ideal.

That's why I look at the Lump as ideally not going to someone who's going to be SPK'd, like, for example, fonti if she's a villager, or someone who's capable of just making themselves unlynchable as a villager, like Vaimes if he's town.

Like, you don't want to aim at town necessarily, because if you're pretty sure you're giving it to town, then that's someone wolves are going to have to NK and you're not spreading them too thin by stacking reasons to NK someone.

That's why I like tom for Lump here: he's not a free villager, like I don't think he's really ever gonna self-clear, and he's probably not a SPK as a villager (no offense tom). If he's a wolf, cool, one down. If he's a villager, cool, a clear in the late-game PoE and another person scum have to worry about shooting.

If tom's feeling too villagery overall I would be down with a Mal lump, for similar reasons.

 

tbh I think tom IS too villagery for lump this game (although I would have trouble articulating precisely why, it's something along the lines of his inquiries being actually inquire-y). I'm on Jari for lump because I townread him but I don't think he is towny in the general sense. So I get to either disprove my townread (which is based on factors I think I will be hard pressed to reverse due to how Jari plays) or clear up the otherwise difficult-to-clear scummy townie.

Like, if the aim is to direct the Priest check, surely we should vote for someone who we ourselves would check? And cop strategy is a bit deeper than just "check your strongest scumread"

 

Can you give me a quick-hits town!Jari pitch?

Like what posts should I be looking at and going, "yeah, I can see him genuinely trying to solve the game here", or what things has he said that I should be thinking, "yeah ok I think if he were a wolf it would sound like [difference]"?
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The problem with separating the Lump from the Priest check can most accurately be seen in the TinyHunt where I was lumped as a witch and not Priest checked and then won.

 

Oh, I don't think separating lump from check is a good idea. I'm saying if we're using lump as a check we can apply "who would I check as Priest tonight" logic to who we vote for lump.

As for Jari, it's a weak-ish metaread which is exactly why I want to lump him. It's not reliable (so I'm never going to take him out of contention for it) and I don't think he will clear himself later, but I also don't want to let scum use him as mislynch bait if he's town (which they will probably get away with b/c no flips).

 

Put it another way: trust me, you do /not/ want to be on Day 4 with an unchecked Lump running around. People start getting nervous, because like fonti said, it's really bad if it's on a witch. It can end a game a day early, and can break ties village could have won. If the unchecked Lump is a villager, wolves /will/ use the paranoia to score a free mislynch, and if it's a wolf, if that person summons up even a shred of town energy, people are not going to want to kill them because it feels like admitting you were wrong, and that's a tough pill to swallow.
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I kind of agree with you here, except to be frank I don't Jarizok to be a softconfirmed doublevoter. No disrespect to him as a player, I just see that going either really well or really badly and it's a coin flip either way, and it feels like too much of a risk in the world where he's town.
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*don't want

 

I mean, this is partly why I told Jari to sheep me if he wants lump :V

The thing is though, if Jari is liable to be a mislynch ANYWAY then that mitigates the whole "lynching lump if unchecked" thing, right? Like, in the sense that we probably would have mislynched him with or without lump and so him having lump isn't exactly making things worse. That just makes me view him as a better hedge for it in the sense that it might save town!Jari from mislynching and it's not really going to get him mislynched if he wasn't going to be otherwise.

Plus I'm reeeeeally sick of mislynching players like him and it's going to make it harder for me to catch if he actually IS scum, which I guess is kinda selfish but shrug?
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I mean, what do you think he'll do with lump as town that would be bad?

 

Deathtunnel a bunch of villagers and not listen to anyone else while doing so?

That a trick question or something?

 

No, I'm just not familiar with this behaviour from him. He was fine in Portal 2 and that one WH I played with him, and I think the other games I was in with him he was scum.

 

Don't know who Sepple is, but yeah, frustrated with that response from Jari

Looks like I didn't quote it, but pretty much agree with your calling Jan town D1 post, albeit the ghosts of last game are screaming at me for it.

I mean I get it, but as I see it that's not what you said at the time, and it feels like you're trying to get out of it. Regardless, we've beat this into the ground, unless you just want to claim Demon or something.

So just to confirm, you're back to LT on Mal again?

Given that he only has 3 posts since you voted him, and none of those were heavily ground breaking, I'm curious why you seem to have abandoned the scum read.

Hey Shadow!

Any chance you post your thoughts from the catch-up? Even if it's only up to the 440 point.

 

It's D1 and if you're not wildly ping-ponging around the playerlist on a whim then u doin it wrong

Serious answer: I ISO'd him and changed my mind. Like most of the other things you're saying are scummy from me, this should not be particularly groundbreaking.

Related: I'd probably scumread you for this if I wasn't there in Princess when you got yourself run over D1 by attempting to deathtunnel Gemma :v

 

Reads should adjust, not look like this



I'm not surprised your iso came to that conclusion based on what you've posted in analysis on Mal before, but am still bewildered why you were so willing to give up that read the minute someone started a Mal wagon. Felt then and now like it was opportunistic.

Related: As Vaimes can attest, my tunnel of Gemma really wasn't that bad by my standards, and frankly

 

Meh. I had nothing better to do.

Also the thing about early game when people have few posts is that a rereading/reinterpreting of one or two posts can completely swing a read. There's no weight of history. That plus reads being weaker in general due to low evidence means that yeah spinning_skunk.gif is fine for the first couple real-time days.

If it helps, "read" is probably a strong word for anything I stated prior to the triple ISO. It's been more like following impulses to see if they go anywhere good.

 

I gave a couple of quick things, but yeah, couple things from my notes:
Delphine struck me as town for post 194, found myself nodding right along (though I’ve since realized that her general thoughts about Lump use aren’t uncommon), and I especially think Delphine and Newcomb are not scum/scum cause of the way Delphine handled her Newcomb read (if you want I’ll find and quote it in the morning, gonna sleep after this post).

I think I already touched on Newcomb, but his use of copy/paste again makes me roll my eyes. I kind of think it suits him better as scum, just from a meta perspective, unless he’s actually used that trick in multiple games before as either alignment?

I don’t particularly like your approach to the Lump, it feels fake enthusiastic; why do you think you should get it? If you had final say in who did it get that wasn’t you, who do you choose?

I’m actually really psyched for the possibility of conf!town or outed!scum Tom, I think anyone not on board for this plan needs to explain to me why not.

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Fonti, whatcha wanna know?

Going to sleep now.

 

Your not familiar with my play, which is part of the reason it makes less sense I think. Since I switched to a lower activity style a while (RL being what it is), I've frequently become early mislynch bait. On the other side, prior to this I've been pretty good at coming up with accurate reads D2 or D3, see Naruto mafia, my sub into Hannibal mafia, or the mid game of Mountainous more recently.

As such, I want the lump take the mislynch away from the witches and force them to consider using a NK on me, get myself cleared, and by being cleared have the time really get my reads down pat, and have the double vote to act on those reads.

Yeah some the gifs and whatnot are a little corny, but it's entertaining for me, and is mainly an attempt to catch attention given that I haven't been able to get lump in previous TH games.

If not me, tom isn't a bad choice, or otherwise maybe Delphine, Vaimes or Mal if enough people aren't sure about him being town at EoD
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Cool, I got post #600!
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Hey Gemma, hope you're doing better.

If you don't mind, can you give me an idea of how you're seeing the game right now, and perhaps specific reads on a couple of people. I'm just kinda here with a lot of nothing for you so far.
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@mallorean_thug: You mind taking a look at dC at some point? Looking for some fresh eyes on this
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This is the automerge that doesn't end. It just goes on and on my friend. Some person, starting auto merging it, not knowing what he'd done. And he'll continue auto merging it forever just because...
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