Gemma almost certainly saved/or was planning on saving me. Anyone that was in Disney Mafia would get this more.

 

X_files_theme.mp3

 

A small amount of thinking emojis. I mean, not going to rule it out still, but yeah.

 

Have caught up on most of the EOD today at work, got tilted by something that I'd rather not go into but hoping to get over it or at least at least enough to start playing this game properly either tonight after drinks with friends or tomorrow; should be back at home and with laptop access from hereon out though.

 

Hope you feel better, too.

 

@Eidolonic you still owe me an answer lol
It was about what your reaction/thoughts were on my wanting to sheep you stuff when the game first started

 

Mmm, I'll be rereading as well. I'm not really sure how much there is to be gotten out of those two flips, but. Yeah.

 

I'd believe it was a straight medic dodge-y shot, but also that she saved someone.

Guess I can't just default to "Reg shot Gemma." :V
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Also there are...a lot of replacements, so.

Spotlight's on them.
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Meh, you only live once.

Vote Regfan

Maybe I'll read things and end up defaulting to a townread, but I want him to tremble a bit.

 

Eh.

Game isn't as easy as we hoped it was, which is unfortunate.

Also don't think reading into the Gemma death is all that profitable - could be myself, Newcomb or her just straight up getting shot as a dodge. I don't...really think she bothered targeting Reg, because she'd have believed the lack of town reads on him from her/others would keep him alive if town imo.

Newcomb or straight up self-dying seem most plausible to me, even if my ego just assumes I'm always the n1 target.

I even lynched a villager, so I'm obviously not a wolf!

It's late and I need to be up early for reasons, so not gonna dive back into things too much, just wanted to check and see who went splat.

@Citrus, I meant to get to you and m+7, but eod crept up on me a bit, and legacy felt more important. I recall thinking I did answer that in one of my reads posts, at least in passing, if you want to look at those sections again you might find what you're looking for (the ones talking about you, maybe my first reads post?)

@M Plus 7 I still want to have a talk with you about playstyle and where I come from when playing a game, and address the arrogance/ego/smug thing, as well as iron out some differences in reads and see where we end up after the new info.

@Nothing Happens Seems like you get your wish, regardless - game isn't that easy, and the narrative isn't what it seemed to be, which means looking at everything again.

Open ended question for folks - what does Fenwick being a villager mean for the wagons we had at EoD? I kind of don't think it means that much, personally, because of sort of unique circumstances, but opening dialog about it seems ideal.

Like.

Kai did something villagery. Beru had RL things happen, and I don't.... really think she was super scummy to start with, just a Possible Wolf, and I wanted to make her do things. It feels like it just was the wagon that was 'left', but that leaves a weird taste in my mouth in terms of who the scum can even be given that.

I want Kai to Do Things. I pushed the lynch on Fen over him because he actually did some stuff and I could see it coming from him as a villager, but like. The bar is higher to clear now that he's shown he's willing to post relevant content. No memes, no shitposts, find me a wolf with reasoning and dunk it.

I want to see our...three? Subs catch up and maybe breathe fresh insight on the thread. I've made a little bet with myself on who Jarizok's opening vote lands on, so let's see how that goes :v

@Nego Hi, hi. No longer d1. We have flips. What do they tell you? What did the EoD tell you? I can't really get a read on gut reads very well, so I want to see what you make of things you can provide actual analysis for, thanks! <3
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I think realistically I didn't really think all that much to you wanting to sheep me because I didn't....expect it to be a permanent thing or even an all of d1 thing? You're perfectly capable as a player and would find a place of your own for your vote eventually, or have to fake doing so as a wolf, so 'Citrus being Citrus' is mostly where I was at. Sometimes I get a decent villager read off you being Citrus, (see WH14), but I usually just get a Citrus read.

I actually kind of think best way to catch you as scum is PoE/Just Not Being Villagery Enough, rather than you actively doing something showcasing scum mindset, but maybe Fonti disagrees. (lolAmericanGods)

I don't have a super firm read on you. Think you could be a wolf here, especially with Fenwick flipping green (not so much because of any itneractions or alignment based things, but because 'that's one spot in the PoE gone', which is kind of a lazy read, but shrug.

There's stuff you've done that I've liked, and I'll spend some time today focusing on you to firm those up, as well as keeping close eye on where you go from here.

I kind of have a vague idea of the progression I expect you to have as town, and will talk to you about it depending on what shakes out.

(If you're a wolf, have some fun with trying to figure that out <3)
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Hum.

I kind of have trouble believing you believe that to some degree.

She straight up said she didn't think you were town, and had other lock town reads on people that aren't like... a magnitude of difference from you in ability level.

I can believe you thinking she actually town read you and was trying to keep you from getting shot while protecting someone else, but like.

She blatantly said 'I do not town read Regfan' clearly and concisely and eh.

If I'm a betting man it was like 80% Newcomb, 15% she was the kill, 4% me/m+7/fonti, 1% You.

I'll be interested to see how closely that matches her thought process in post-game.

Idk. Even as I type this I almost think it shows a lack of awareness of perception of gamestate that might come from you as a villager more, but it's pretty thin.

Urge to just delete this whole post is high, but whatever. I still don't think you really, really believe she protected you given the gamestate and playerlist and her reads. Just can kinda see you making the post as town anyways maybe.
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Mood, though.

Someone who is already strongly town being one of the (probably few) PR's makes me sad.

But like...at least it wasn't Fenwick :v
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I'm here for like, 10-15 more minutes.

Anyone around?

 

o/

 

Newcomb hi!

I uh.

Didn't really expect to have a second day with you after that EoD1.
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Part of me doesn't want to talk about things before other people have a chance to talk about things because I kind of want some fresh insight, but, the other part of me is kind of sleep deprived, and likes playing mafia far too much.

 

I mean, closed setup, probably lower power, doubt wolves could really say there wasn't much protection floating around. Super don't want to bounce a kill N1. And there are plenty of strong townreads floating around. Can't say I wouldn't have shot to dodge a save. Like I kinda think it's more like 50% Gemma was the straight kill but idk doesn't super matter.

 

You aren't wrong. Doesn't matter, it's all levels, and like. The people she might have saved are all just town anyways so eh.

 

Yo, insomniac!fonti is here. I don't really have anything to contribute, but I'll accept questions.

 

Yeah I don't think we should forget that Gemma was widely townread and also possibly a straight shot.
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What makes you say this?

I'm going to post a huge post I typed up during the Night in a few moments. I just need to edit it to include Gemma's death.

[/QUOTE]

 

Did you ever notice that when you blow in a dog's face, he gets mad at you but when you take him on a car ride, he sticks his head out of the window?

 

I initially thought reg had to be joking about Gemma saving him or mafia, because that cannot be real.
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It's about freedom and control over your own actions.

Also, your breath stinks.

 

What makes this game difficult for me is the soft lynch mechanic because it means the mafia has less incentive for throwing around late votes. I play mostly by analysing EoD votals but the mechanic makes it more difficult.

For an example the only reason I voted fenwicked was to make a lynch happen. The other options I was offered were Beru and Kai, the first of which I'm town reading and the second of which the case was based on bad reasoning imo.

Makes it harder to read the votes when others may have been voting just to get a lynch going too.

I guess I'll have to look less at the late votes and more at the votes where it got to the soft lynch line.

Before fenwicked gained the traction, this is what the vote tally looked like:

KaiDASH was at 6 votes, getting close to soft lynch. Fenwicked was at 1 vote and gained the votes of Nego, fontisian (who switched from KaiDASH).
Vaimes switched to Nego bringing the Kai wagon down to 4 (before voting Eido). Jan unvoted, bringing the Kai wagon down to 3.
Jan jumped on the Eido wagon after Vaimes voted there, bringing the wagon to 3 while KaiDASH and fenwicked both had 3 votes too. Gemma brought it to 4 shortly after.
Vaimes then switched to Fenwicked, bringing it to 4. Jan followed suit, and Beru brought the Fenwicked wagon to 6, bringing Eido down to 1.
Stanari then switch from tsaiah to Fenwicked, bring it to 7. Eido immediately followed suit, bringing the Fenwicked lynch -1 to soft lynch.
Not long after, Gemma jumped on the wagon as well, enabling soft lynch, and bringing KaiDASH down to 2. Gemma quoted Stanari's vote, clearly sheeping her.

Miner brought the wagon to 10, making sure fenwicked was lynched. This happened about an hour before EoD. He then went on to switch back to Regfan due to some time confusion.
Nothing Happens brought the fenwicked wagon back to 10 at 21 minutes to EoD.


Here's the final vote tally for D1 with color coding based on flips:

[10] fenwicked ~ M Plus 7 (#1452), Nego (#1504), fontisian (#1512), Vaimes (#1585), Jan (#1619), Beruru (#1621), Stanari (#1654), Eidolonic (#1655), Gemma (#1659), Nothing Happens (#1770)
[2] Beruru ~ Regfan (#1291), Newcomb (#1311)
[1] KaiDASH ~ Citrus (#1220)
[1] fontisian ~ KaiDASH (#821)
[1] Vaimes ~ fenwicked (#317)
[1] Regfan ~ Miner (#1694)

Due to the soft lynch mechanic, the vote of Nothing Happens isn't really AI here. It could come just as often from a wolf trying to look like helping than a villager making sure a lynch happens.

Gemma was the one to bring fenwicked to a soft lynch but I doubt it comes from a wolf. (EDIT: Her flip proves this.) Instead, I'm going to look into those who voted fenwicked between the time KaiDASH was at 6 and fenwicked got to 9.

Those are Nego, fontisian, Vaimes, Jan, Beru, Stanari, and Eidolonic.

I'm a villager so no need for me to look into myself.

Fontisian - I'm not sure if I'm able to read Fontisian well after the post I called antagonistic. I noticed she didn't respond to it in any way, and if she is a villager I don't really blame her. The post she made was one though that made me unwilling to spend time on this game when I got back online last night. I think I'm going to let others figure out this slot but I really don't see them as a villager.

Vaimes's vote came through a curve, first being on me after a silly reasoning for finding me a wolf (for the record, Vaimes, I don't need to know what someone has posted to read a third person), and then being on Eidolonic for a brief moment of time. Once Jan and Gemma hopped on Eido, Vaimes switched to fenwicked where he stayed for the rest of the phase. Were he trying to soft-bus but got scared of it actually potentially leading to a lynch on Eido? That doesn't really explain why he was so willing to jump off of me so fast though. I don't think Vaimes/Eido are w/w at least. Vaimes on the other hand might have been opportunistic here, though that doesn't explain why he jumped off the Eido wagon. Meh.

Jan/dLGN - Jan, along with Vaimes, was crucial in bringing the KaiDASH wagon to an end but where Vaimes lead the cases, Jan was a sheep. He followed Vaimes not only to Eido but to fenwicked as well. The only one he didn't touch was the Nego vote. Not really feeling good about this. Especially since Jan was swaying me to vote for fenwicked in the first place.

Beru - Beru was on Eido for most of the phase and only switched to fenwicked after the wagon died down with Vaimes' and Jan leaving it. Not going to hold it against them due to [reasons].

Stanari - Stanari was on tsaiah/Empoof for a long time so there's not much to read into their voting pattern at EoD.

Eidolonic - Eido was voting for Beru for the longest time before switching to fenwicked close to EoD.

Out of the people mentioned above, I see fontisian, Jan/dLGN, Stanari, Eido as the likeliest wolves on the wagon. Nothing Happens can be a wolf as well but their vote didn't really contribute to the lynch. Probably only 1-2 wolves in this bunch though and I'm going to be reading their ISOs this day phase.

When it comes to the other wagons, there really wasn't any strong ones at the end of the phase. Beru was the only one with more than one vote, with Regfan and Newcomb voting for them. If this game is as easy as 80% of the playerbase is making out to be the Beru wagon was pure. I want to believe that for now at least.

Other off-wagoners were Citrus, KaiDASH, Gemma, fenwicked, and Miner.

Out of these fenwicked already flipped, and Miner was on fenwicked before he got confused by the EoD time. He was corrected though but never went back to voting fen.

KaiDASH could be scum and that would make me look into those who made the fenwicked wagon a viable one, especially Jan who was advocating for another lynch when I went to sleep.

There isn't really much else to say about the people in this group for now.

I wonder if the wolves were trying not to hit the main wagon during the night.. but alas that's just speculation.


Okay, let's take a look at individual vote progression (in the order the players first appeared in the thread):
Vaimes:
M Plus 7 -> Stanari -> Citrus -> fenwicked -> Citrus -> KaiDASH -> Nego -> Eidolonic -> fenwicked
Citrus:
Newcomb -> Nego -> Beruru -> fenwicked -> tsaiah -> Nothing Happens -> KaiDASH
Stanari:
Nothing Happens -> M Plus 7 -> Unvote -> fenwicked -> tsaiah -> fenwicked
Eidolonic:
Vaimes -> Citrus -> fenwicked -> Beruru -> Unvote -> fenwicked
Jan/dLGN:
Gemma -> No Lynch -> Beruru -> fenwicked -> tsaiah -> Unvote -> Nothing Happens -> fenwicked -> Unvote -> Nothing Happens -> KaiDASH -> Unvote -> Eidolonic -> fenwicked
Miner/Jarizok:
Eidolonic -> Miner -> Regfan -> fenwicked -> Regfan
Gemma:
Stanari -> M Plus 7 -> Citrus -> Eidolonic -> Beruru -> Nego -> Regfan -> fenwicked -> Nothing Happens -> Citrus -> Nothing Happens -> KaiDASH -> Eidolonic -> fenwicked
M Plus 7:
Citrus -> fenwicked
Newcomb:
Nego -> Miner -> Beruru
KaiDASH:
Jan -> fontisian
fontisian:
fenwicked -> Citrus -> Nothing Happens -> Nego -> KaiDASH -> Beruru -> KaiDASH -> fenwicked
Beruru:
Stanari -> tsaiah -> Eidolonic -> fenwicked
tsaiah/Empoof:
Regfan -> Unvote
Nego:
Eidolonic -> Regfan -> fontisian -> fenwicked
Regfan:
Nego -> Tsaiah -> Beruru
Nothing Happens:
Stanari -> KaiDASH -> fenwicked
fenwicked:
Vaimes

People who never voted fenwicked: Newcomb, KaiDASH, tsaiah/empoof, Regfan
People who voted fenwicked only once: Citrus, Miner/Jarizok, M Plus 7, Beruru, Nego, Nothing Happens
People who voted fenwicked more than once: Vaimes, Stanari, Eidolonic, Jan/dLGN, Gemma, fontisian

I'm wary of Jan and Gemma switching their votes so many times, more so Jan than Gemma though.


I'm going to take a better look at this when my mind's more awake. I need to eat breakfast and stuff.

 

Fuck it.

Vote: Nego

Listen, I'm sorry for upsetting you, and I'm sorry if you're town and this tilts you. But your analysis seems way too off to be town. How could you see Gemma and Jan moving their votes around as scummy? It showed how they were changing their thoughts about the game constantly, trying to figure out their reads. The inconsistentcy is towny.

I agree that Gemma's was better, because obviously, but that doesn't make Jan's a scummy thing.

Your place to look for scum on the wagon consists entirely of people who voted more than once, when that seems the townier category to me. If course soneone who susoected fen originally would be more willing to drive the wagon. I don't understand at all why you singled out the four of us.

I don't get why you're choosing to believe that Newcomb and Regfan are town, but not believing the Jan slot is town when he was defended much harder. Was it just him pushing you to vote fen? Why is that so important? Or Eido and Stanari, who have both had less blowback than reg. Like, Eido is basically the only person defending Reg.

Bleh.

Continue with your analysis and ignore this if you need to.

 

Just trying to like, get into your head here.

This is a slot you think is not a villager, but you're not going to try to get it lynched, you're going to let others figure it out, instead of convincing others to vote here?
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I feel like you're taking Vaimes's votes at like... face value. Like you even kind of point to it, obliquely.

How can you expect to generate, like... a read that's forward-thinking and progresses somewhere when you're just looking at like, a tiny slice of game and using that as a starting point without expanding to like, the context of the actual stuff you're talking about?

Not sure I articulated that point that well but it's late.

Just kind of really not getting your process here.
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Can you back that up with quotes? Because that's not at all I how I remember it going down.

Like, I super super don't remember Vaimes pushing a strong "Kai is town" OR "fenwicked is mafia" narrative when the wagons were shifting.
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??????

What about Stanari's voting makes her a likely wolf?

I feel like I'm just missing some massive steps in your thought process here. Like, obviously "not much to read into their voting pattern at EoD" doesn't go at all with putting Stanari on that list, soooo..... explain?
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Gonna say this hard spews Reg town if Nego is a wolf.

Nego, this seems like you're implying that you have a roughly equal read on myself and Regfan, based on a general consensus of what you're read in the thread. Is that accurate? Like, you're saying "80% of the game thinks this so probably they're both town and the wagon is pure". Is that what you're saying here?