Fontisian

Interestingly, I decided that the best option for in-depth analysis is you font, if only to help me solidify my read on you.

Post #48: First post of real substance to analyse. Argues against the Rubicon bandwagon, somewhat justifiably. Names Wetnurse specifically and then draws attention to the random lynch thing, explaining why that's a bad idea. Goes on to call Typhon out on apparently uncharacteristic indecisiveness and ask Rubicon about Kalas, establishing a link between the two. Moves her vote to Typhon. Finally, she posts the voting record, something she has used in previous games to provide the illusion of useful content. As a whole, the post is noncommittal, putting minor pressure on Wetnurse and Typhon without really advancing the discussion.

Post #74: Begins by echoing Moridin in calling Aek out on his rather noncommittal post re: Wetnurse's random lynch idea. Interesting, considering she'd done much the same thing. Increases the pressure on Wetnurse by noting the fact that he only votes for those already under pressure and calls on Sesc to post more. Her little back-and-forth with Typhon is noteworthy and should be reexamined if/when Typhon's allegiance is revealed. It allows them both to appear reasonable and towny. In tandem with the previous post it distances her from Wetnurse and provides a tentative link with Typhon.

At this point, font's posts read town on the surface but a closer look reveals repetition and a lack of actual useful content. Scum side of null.

Post #112: This is intriguing. Understandably eases up on Aek after he starts contributing his reads. Continues to exhibit a soft touch with Typhon. Notes Smile's confusing and somewhat scummy behaviour but doesn't follow up with a vote. Calls Fen out on his passive play. Goes on to reveal that she's noting potential scum-buddies for Rubicon despite professing to think he's town. Acknowledges that her vote list looks potentially scummy. Calls Schro out on his derpiness. Further increases pressure on Wetnurse by outright calling him scum but doesn't follow up with a vote. Instead, she votes for Menace, ostensibly because he's merely parroting the opinions of other players. Situation is similar to her previous pressure on Aek. Finally, responds to Stojil's request to make a case against herself. Does a pretty good job but fails to acknowledge the content-lite nature of some of her posts.

Post #148: This is better. She makes a solid, sensible case against Bill Door and follows it up with a vote. Makes some good points about Bill's passive and reactionary play style.

Post #150 and Post #159: Encourages Schro to defend himself by contributing to discussion and revealing his scum suspects. Taken in combination with #148 moves her a few notches towards the town end of the scale.

Post #179: Urges players to jump on a bandwagon. Could be an attempt to rush day end and cut discussion time.

Post #238: Calls Schro a derp and asks him to elaborate on his comments re Sesc and Moridin. Also (sensibly) says that any theorising re Stojil's cryptic message be confined to QTs. Somewhat townish.

Post #278 on: Expresses surprise at the reveal that Rubicon is non-town. Consistent with previous opinions but still feels vaguely suspect, given his implosion at the end of Day 1. Goes on to list those she feels are potential scum buddies for Rubicon.

She then proceeds to lay out cases against Kalas and Schro, with the stated intent of doing so for all of those she listed earlier. Puts pressure on Schro re: his nonsensical scum reads. Has not yet posted a scum team, ostensibly due to not having one. Goes on to call Moridin out on posting "information without analysis." Situation is similar to her earlier pressure on Aek and Menace. Finally, she asks that I offer more in-depth analysis and attempts to create a tentative link between Typhon and myself.

TL;DR: Font's being very cagey and non-committal, which is usually a sign of scum. Early game in particular suggested someone trying to appear town rather than someone being town. Has improved since then and made efforts to encourage discussion. Still reads on the scummy side of null to me though.

I'm going to have a look at Schro next and then finish with either Menace or Rents.

 

Smile:

Actually got worse today, somehow. Somewhat scummy description of Sesc's ability, trollposts, some major fishing in regards to Stojil's message, lightly suggesting it could be a scumploy. Basically doubtcasting Stojil.

The best thing he's done was saying he believed Rubicon was scum before Aekiel's check. He did so without voting however, so that could very well be distancing. Posr 293 was just..

This is horrible. Like the implication alone, that he knew a Day cop was in the game.. Urgh. And now he disappears for 36+ hours.

Typhon/Wetnurse/Rubicon/Smile looking very likely.

Schro analysis in a bit.

 

That was just me being an idiot. I was tired and wasn't thinking straight. I hadn't managed to figure out the whole Aekiel/day cop thing with Stojil. Sorry. Aekiel isn't on my list any more, as noted above.

 

Looking back, font did post a scum team. My bad.

 

So, you're saying "Rents, Rubicon, Menace, but wait, not Menace". That about right?



---------- Post automerged at 01:48 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:41 AM ----------

Also, Schrodinger,

1) Explain that scumteam, please? Also a four man scumteam would be nice.

2) Stojil's #265.

 

That was before I re-looked over the stuff: Aekiel isn't scum unless Rubicon somehow flips townie. Honestly? Rents and Rubicon are my only solid reads. Everyone else is pretty much either neutral or town in my book so far. Maybe smile for the third, if I have to push it? Considering we have two players who were MIA all of the first 96 hours, I don't think that's too outrageous.

As for Stojil's questions: I obviously wasn't addressing Fen or Bill off the list, since they were already dead. Rubicon and smile seemed like solid bets, but it was Moridin and Sesc's agreement on Rubicon that I felt was what was most solid. (this was before the daycop flip, IIRC.)

 

Schrodinger

Post #5 and #9: Opens the game by talking about alternative win conditions and third parties. Strange, if not outright suspicious.

He then spends his next few posts essentially trolling the game and thinking that quantity of posts is more important than the content thereof. Irksome and anti-town in its lack of useful discussion or reads.

Post #89: Here is where things start to get scummy rather than derp-town. Schro proposes we lynch Stojil because he's good at Mafia. Yeah. Oh, and despite that, Rubicon is still his number one suspect. Schro then proceeds to go quiet for a while.

Post #149, #158 and #161 : Schro returns with two somewhat defensive "oh woe is me" posts. Once again, there is no useful content. Post #161 promises useful analysis after a re-read of the thread. Its value is entirely dependent on the forthcoming analysis.

Post #197: The promised analysis arrives. In keeping with the general theme of Schro's posting it's not terribly helpful and contains a strong element of "no, you!" especially with regards to Stojil. Stil,l it's not as bad as that provided by others and apparently he hasn't tried this before. Moves him back towards derp-town.

Post #228: A justified request for more content from myself and bob99. A solidly neutral post.

Post #231: More scumminess, with his decision to throw a lynch vote on Stojil after the cryptic message.

Post #237: A rather pointless post, calling Fen an idiot and postulating that Sesc's death proves we're on the right track with our suspected scum teams.

Post #291: Another effectively contentless post. Schro claims Rubicon was his number one suspect and then votes for him. As it's post day-cop reveal it's meaningless.

Post #296: Names Rents, Aekiel and Menace as his scum team, presumably in addition to Rubicon. Asks for someone to make a case against Wetnurse for him. This seems strange, as Aek is all but townfirmed and even scum probably wouldn't list him.

Post #301: Attacks Rents and lists a three-man scum team of Rubicon, Aek and Rents. Offers no explanation as to how a scum team containing Aek and Rubicon makes sense.

Post #305: Says he may have mixed up Rents and Menace. This notably has no bearing on the Rubicon and Aek issue.

Post #309: Posts a post counter for the thread. This bears some similarity to font's "information without analysis." Also calls out bob99 for not posting. Looks town rather than feeling town.

Post #321: Promises to answer the questions levied at him after he looks at his evidence and gets some sleep.

Post #348: Continues to go after Rents and lists a three-man scum team of Rubicon, Rents and Menace. Finds it hard to imagine a scum team that contains Menace but not Aek. Expresses confusion regarding replacements.

Post #363: Explains that his scum read on Aek was due to confusion regarding the day cop thing and says that he is no longer a suspect.

Post #366: Rows back on his Menace accusation. Tentatively suggests Smile as a third member of the scum team.


TL;DR: His attempts to lynch Stojil and his scum team reads are somewhat suspicious. He derped a lot on Day 1. His confusion with regards to Aek is strange but might just be honest confusion.There are tentative links to Rubicon and Rents. On the whole, he reads as somewhat scummy to me, though I do feel that there are better suspects. Would be willing to lynch, however.

---------- Post automerged at 23:41 ---------- Previous post was at 23:10 ----------

Hey Prophylaxis. Got anything to say?

 

Good analysis, thank you. Aside from this:

He was. Check my posted analysis: I had him at -8 with him as my number one suspect. It's a bit ironic that my initial 'joke' suspect became my actual suspect, but I don't think it's suspicious.

 

I was mainly talking about the vote. At that point no one was going to vote for anyone other than Rubicon. It's a safe option.

 

Yep, was just reading the thread.

Sesc
Fenraellis

Prophylaxis

Aekiel
Uncle Stojil
Menace
Moridin
Caesar
bob99
Kalas
fontisian
Schrodinger
SmileoftheKill
Typhon
Wetnurse
Rubicon

I'm town.

Aekiel and Uncle are pretty much townfirmed, given the daycop buisness w/Rubicon. I hope this doesn't bite me hard like last game, though.

I'm looking forward to bob posting some content.

I really can't get much from Caesar at the moment; he needs to post more.

Smile + Typhon, and to a lesser extent Wetnurse are all on there for interaction analysis with Rubicon. You have a couple of Rubicon votes Smile/Typhon that don't really go anywhere which raises alarm bells, considering that's how I got hoodwinked in Random.

Wetnurse has made some fairly scummy posts + IIoA Day 1 and his/her later posts haven't really been giving me other town tells. Unaligned pair w/Typhon, though. If Typhon flips scum then he/she's confirmed town in my book.

I'm going to sit on the fence on fontisian, as scummy as that is. She's made a couple of reasonable posts but really, I'm paranoid of how well she played during Randomness. I'll try to get into some more analysis of her soon.

At first I didn't really like Menace's posts - his town/scum list was bad and he didn't really do much except list everything that everyone else was stating. But, assuming Rubicon isn't some anti-town neutral, I really like his first vote on Rubicon, before the daycop thing happened. It's enough to bump him up to a leaning town.

Moridin is still doing posts that take me through the grinder and back, eh. I like how he immediately went through a Rubicon analysis, and his scumteam mirrors mine. He's slight leaning town for me now. A

Cool, Kalas is an unaligned pair with Smile. I think... that's all I have? I really can't get much out of his posts, like last game. Uhh, let's see if the voting analysis sheds any light.

I agree that Schrodinger is scummy, but I want to lynch Smile/Typhon/Wetnurse first - they have poorer interactions with Rubicon, and I want to clear things up with regards to those two.

Well, that was quite time-consuming to post. I'm going to dissect the votes soon, but I need to put in some more work in other ongoing games.

 

You missed Rents, by the way.

 

Nice post, Prophylaxis. Mirrors my thinking quite a bit actually. I should have another post analysing Menace out before I head to bed.

 

Is there a way that we can replace in for people like Rents and bob? Seriously, if one of them is scum we're gonna get killed on it.

I'm going to drop by with a voting analysis if nobody else does a really good one before the day is out, but this one has been a wash. I just hope the scum hasn't had time to come up with a solid strategy for the game moving forward.

---------- Post automerged at 09:16 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:15 AM ----------

This day has been a wash, I meant.

 

Day Ends in 8 hours.

It's not a hard lynch yet. Don't have time at the moment to do a Vote Tally, but will in a few hours.

 

Argh. I had this ready last night but then DLP ate it and I decided that it was too late to type it up again. Anyway.

Menace:

First few posts aren't really relevant, unless you think that Menace calling Schro out on his confusion re: Kalas is noteworthy. Personally I don't. As the day progresses he is called out on lack of activity by several players, notably Rubicon and Stojil. At this point he's playing in an anti-town manner but so is damn near everyone else.

Post #108: This is interesting. He opens with some analysis on the interactions between Rubicon, Kalas and Smile. Goes on to attack Wetnurse, Smile and Schrodinger. Puts pressure on Riley to firm up his reads and calls Fen out on his fixation on Rubicon. Gives Rubicon as a town read but that's understandable at that point. Ends post by voting Schro. Like font, however, it's mostly a rephrasing of opinions expressed elsewhere in the thread. This is somewhat mitigated by calling on Riley and Fen to contribute more but the post still looks town rather than feels town.

Post #126: Continues to put pressure on Wetnurse and Fen, emphasizing that their current actions are, at best, not helping the town and, at worst, are actively detrimental. Also gives a soft defense of his previous post, presenting it as him merely sharing the opinions of others in the thread. This post does feel town, particularly the sense of frustration with Fen, an impression furthered by post #130.

Post #144: Soft defense against Typhon's accusation of glibness and caution.

Post #181: Admits he hadn't noticed the uncharacteristic behaviour of Bill Door himself but agrees with many of the points made against him by others. Declines to change his vote until Schro posts his promised analysis/reads. This is indicative of commitment to his scum suspects, usually a sign of town.

Post #211/#215/#223: States that he went after Schro for derpiness, not lurking. Argues against Rubicon's suggested switch of lynch wagon and moves his vote to Bill Door to ensure the lynch goes through. Ends the day by expressing worry over Rubicon's actions. At this point, is reading as probably town.

Post #234: Shouts down Schro's attempt to lynch Stojil.

Post #245: Pretty good post. Says that he now feels Schro is more likely derp-town than scum and that Rubicon is now one of his suspects, due to the "implosion" at the end of Day 1. Advocates keeping an eye on Stojil and his cryptic message rather than immediately lynching. Calls Rents out on his non-helpful reaction to Rubicon's attempt to have him lynched. Ends post with a vote on Rubicon.

Post #247: Puts pressure on Smile to contribute to the discussion, asking for his top three scum and town reads, preferably along with a lynch vote.

Post #250: Continues to put Rubicon on the spot re: the end of Day 1 and promises to post his revised reads soon. At this point, reads as solidly town.

Post #258: More pressure on Rubicon to explain the attempted Rents wagon but notes that he may be leaning towards a derp town read.

Menace hasn't posted much of note since then but not a lot of people have.


TL;DR: After a shaky start Menace has exhibited a number of towny traits and a willingness to participate in discussion. My read at the moment is that he's solidly town.

Again, sorry for the delay on this.

 

SmileOfTheKill

As already stated, this was kind of weird, though honestly I also looked at the PM recipients before realizing that they were in alphabetical order. Not particularly scummy, IMO.

Possible scum excitement, possible power role excitement, possible mafia game in general excitement. Again, not particularly scummy.

Rubicon shoots a weak accusation at Smile, without a vote. Part of me feels like if he were actually trying to distance himself from Smile, he would have voted.

Fundamental misunderstanding of the last game, which adds to Smile’s derpy persona.

The follow up by Rubicon is suspicious, as he probably realizes that this early attack is unlikely to go anywhere. Then we have the weird Kalas-Rubicon confrontation.

Smile calls for less aggression, which is scummy. The confusing about Rubicon’s use of the phrase “chainsaw defending” argues against a Smile/Rubicon team. And Smile’s thoughts on last game still don’t make sense.

Rubicon backs off on Smile, citing a vague okay reaction.

The Fen thing could be considered a defense of Rubicon, without Smile actually putting his neck on the line for Rubicon’s sake. Scummy.

Accuses others of lurking, without contributing any analysis. Yay.

Smile repeats this, again soft defending Rubicon.

Very defensive post, without any analysis to help it out.

“Considering that everything about it felt fake however, I'm more inclined to think they are not on the same team, but one of them being scum is entirely possible,” as already stated, makes no sense. The rest of these aren’t scum reads, they’re just summary at best. The part about Bill Door being hyper aggressive is just wrong. The best part was the bit about Fen playing it safe, but even that isn’t that helpful as Smile doesn’t even guess at Fen’s alignment.

This is suspicious is Kalas turns out to be scum as well.

Rubicon uses my “Smile is really confusing me” line to defend Smile.

Smile is the last to jump on the Schro bandwagon, as the 7th voter, which could make this bussing.

Interesting that Smile thinks about this from a killing point of view. I know the first thing I thought of when reading about Sesc’s power was how it would affect my role.

Out-of-the-box thinking in regards to Stojil’s post, which is fairly towny.

Smile calls Rubicon scum after Menace calls him scum and Moridin suggests that both Smile and Rubicon are scummy, so the timing is suspicious. Smile does not suggest a full scum team, as Aekiel requested.

This was weird. Perhaps Smile was worried about being checked, or perhaps he expected a day kill (which is honestly what I expected).

Calls for pressure on Rents without actually pressuring him or asking him a question. Scummy.

Tl:dr Smile isn’t very helpful as a player. He has some poor connections with Rubicon, and likes to talk about how bad he is at mafia to avoid doing anything. The best argument in his favor is that he’s a derp, and I still say that a team with Kalas is unlikely. I think I want to lynch him, though after Schro (and Rubicon, obviously).

---------- Post automerged at 12:09 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:16 AM ----------

Caesar: Thank you for the reads. To address the one about me:

See, the difference between my comment of Wetnurse's random lynch idea and Aekiel's is that I did it while it was still a topic of discussion, while Aekiel did it after the matter had been resolved.

I actually do this for everyone, in pretty much every game, with an excel spreadsheet. And really, last game proved that just because someone is leaning town or "townfirmed" doesn't mean that they should be excempt from all pressure and analysis.

Could you explain this?

I like to have everyone take a side on a bandwagon, so that they are forced to share their thoughts on the bandwagon while leaving a voting record that can be examined at a later date.

 

The Rubicon thing was actually a point in favour of you being town. Sorry I didn't make that clear. As to the Menace and Aek thing, it was similar in that you were calling players out for bland, content-lite posting when you were somewhat guilty of that yourself.

 

Bob99, Smile and Menace have yet to post a scumteam, if I've checked this correctly.

Smile has been absent for almost all of today - last posted almost, what, 60 hours ago? Might be some RL issue, in which case I suppose he would get a pass, but I'm hoping to see much more from him when he returns.

Bob99 seems to be gone for a while too, though not as long. I don't like his #347 - the way it referenced particular points in the early game smacks of someone who's gone over the thread carefully, yet his reads don't match that. Both the reads he gave are very 'safe', indicating that he has no strong opinion, and outside of a 'soft scum' read on Rents he didn't really expand on anything outside of what Fontisian directly asked him.

Menace has been in the thread, so his lack of response is a bit odd. He last posted almost a day ago. His last four posts are just random filler as far as content goes, and he has yet to weigh in on Rubicon's flip in any meaningful way, let alone post a potential team for him. He gets bumped up my scumlist a couple of notches.

I think we're still at six - there hasn't been a vote for Rubicon that I saw since I last said that, so we should be on soft lynch.

 

Just checking in to say that I have absolutely no idea what's happening this day phase, due to excessive travelling and not having the right kind of power adaptors for the US. >_>

I'll catch up tomorrow, promise.

 

Vote: Rubicon

?