What was Umbridge's idea of how to shut up Harry when she sent the dementors to Privet drive? Did she think he would do magic and be expelled? But if so, how did Umbridge know Harry could do a patronus? Did she hear from Fudge or some other ministry member?

Or was she planning on having the kiss performed on Harry and saying that he finally snapped and cover it up. However, if that occurs what would happen if people did find out it was dementors. A mass hysteria would start as people would believe that the Dementors were out of control of the ministry and Voldemort may be back. The only way for them to fight those rumors would say that someone sent them there accidently or find a scapegoat and start a huge bueacratic nightmare and massive coverup.

 

You have to remember it's the same Umbridge who was a second away from casting the Cruciatus on Harry right in front of several witnesses. I'm not sure she really thought about the consequences.

That being said, it wouldn't have been very difficult for the Ministry to hide the fact that Harry was kissed and pretend he simply died. Stupid arrogant boy was probably still convinced of Sirius Black's innocence and got killed for his effort, or something.

 

Speculation? Speculation:
1. Blame Harry's death on something related to his living among Muggles.
2. Remind people that it's Dumbledore's fault that he was placed there and thus his fault that the Boy-Who-Lived died and make up some story about how the earlier claimed craziness of Harry was Dumbledore's fault too.
3. Have one of the problems removed and other severely limited.
4. ???
5. PROFIT

 

Short answer: since when did Rowling worry about making the bad guy's competent, beyond the odd incidental flash?

Long Answer: Kill Harry, blame Dumbledore. What Sataniel said but tempered with the fact that Umbridge was more enthusiasm and evil than she was patient and capable. She almost used an unforgivable in front of witnesses. She was transparent at the school (not that Harry didn't mouth off anyway), she followed Hermione like a retard.

In other words, a decent strategy but in the hands of someone who was fond of tactics they weren't particularly suited for.

 

I think there were several layers to this plan, and it was all really rather clever:

• Firstly, her knowing Harry could cast a Patronus is not out of the question. She may have already been looking into the Defence professorship at the time, and have looked through Harry's records in D.A.D.A., with Lupin possibly recording Harry's proficiency with the Patronus Charm there.

• Moreover, the fact that Dementors are fought off with a Patronus is not common knowledge, at least not among half-bloods. If a random muggle-raised wizard was faced with a Dementor, he wouldn't go "Dammit, I can't do a Patronus, guess I'll just have to let him suck out my soul". They'd frantically try every duelling spell they knew, hoping something would work. It wouldn't but that's entirely besides the point.

• Then, assuming the Dementors did manage to suck out Harry's soul, Umbridge probably counted on the fact that Dumbledore would have people watching Harry even if she wasn't aware of the Order-related specifics. Had Harry lost his soul that day, who'd have been the one to find him and report the event? Mrs Figg. At this point it's child's play for Umbridge's kangaroo court to say: "You've got to wonder why Dumbledore's undercover minion just happened to get there a minute after the Dementor Kissed poor Harry…" and blame Dumbledore.

• If all else failed, she could easily have ordered the Dementors to clean up behind them by strangling the Kissed Harry to death. That way the only true non-Death-Eater witness of Voldemort's return is history, and as a bonus she may be able to twist it all to paint Dumbledore in a bad light for letting "muggle scum" murder the Boy-Who-Lived.

 

I think it's unlikely that she intended the dements to kill him. I assume it is easy to identify a kiss victim in the magical world, hence it would be quite hard to pass it off as a muggle illness. Even if the Ministry kept mum about it or tried to cover it up, there is no guarantee that they would have gotten to the body first. After all the Order managed to retrieve Harry from Privet Drive before the aurors did when Harry cast the patronus. Honestly I think it was just Umbridge trying to "help" the administration by getting rid of a problem, only that it was Umbridge and ineptly done.

 

The thing is, dementors don't kill, they "eat" the soul. So Harry's body would still be alive, only a soulless zombie. I'd say that's something that's pretty easy for wizards to recognize as what it is. At least it's not something that can be mistaken for a simple illness.

Still, it's not likely that the ministry would take much damage from Harry being kissed given how completely they control everything at that point. Likely they would simply find some random guard and blame the "rogue" dementor on him, and then summarily execute him for "causing the death of our young, heroic champion, Harry Potter". And if Dumbledore tries anything after that, Fudge and Umbridge can blame Dumbledore for trying to make a political spectacle out of a tragic accident...

 

Hey just a reminder on this topic. Harry did use a Patronus in his second year when the Malfoy's dressed up as Dementors, that's a lot of witnesses that saw Harry using the spell.

It's not difficult for her to learn that Harry knew the spell, she could of read it in the news or overheard some co-workers chattering about it after they heard from their children about Harry using it.

From their it's not difficult to figure out her plan, she's not planning an assassination, just discrediting and removing a rebellious part of the population. It's easy for her to learn that Harry can defend himself from Dementors and then create a situtation where he has to and then have his wand snapped for it.

 

You mean "third", right?

If I remember correctly, all Harry did was creating some mist (I'm not sure though, it could have had a shape for seconds). And it was in the air. It is too much to assume that everybody would know about the Patronus spell. Even if some people knew about it, it would be difficult to identify because of the distance and success of the spell. The whole scene was stupid anyway. What was Malfoy thinking, interfering with an ongoing match? It could have cost his position in his house team, amongst other things (I think JKR gives Malfoy the idiot ball more than necessary, but that's another issue and I don't want to rant).

I also don't think Umbridge is the kind of person who follows a very elaborate plan. She has a superiority complex, is willing to do horrible things to prove her point and generally doesn't care about the consequences, as her actions in OotP show us. Also, I always wondered why Umbridge never played up the 'Parseltounge is Evil' card to extreme to discredit Harry, and by association Dumbledore. Was is because there was no press articles about the events in the second book? Or JKR just didn't care about most things, if they didn't fit in the book's general plot?

I mostly agree with this review:

There aren't great plans seen in action: just about one such careful planning in each book. Like Dumbledore foreshadowing the Scarcrux in the second book, and later planning his own death. The struggle between the good guys/bad guys is simpler than similar events are in other book series. And many potential conflicting elements end up not being used.

 

Dementors' prime mode of attack is to eat the soul. However, a Kissed wizard wouldn't put up much of a fight if for some reason (for instance, because Umbridge told them to) the Dementors strangled his mindless body on the way out.

 

Checking if Harry is the real thing and not fake a Boy Who Lived

British representative somewhere: our BWL fry Dark Lords at age 1, getting bitten by a Basliks at 12 and slaying it with a sword afterwords, banish a horde of dementors at age 13, out fly a dragon at age 14 and clawing is way out from a Dementor belly with his bare hands at age 15.
Defy us at your own risk.