Fuck it. Go for all of them

I've been clear from D1 I don't like to assume scum are stupid and aren't aware of the gameplays they can make. I would rather be fully informed and be able to discuss how I think scum might act...leave no path un explored type of thing. Jari questioning Mendel who I read as town at that point fit into that mindset of be aware of what could be happening and going on in the scum teams head.

This one's self explanatory I think? CA's reads at the time were inconsistent to me in how he applied the ratios of scumfeel to townfeel.

Like I said...he wasn't posting a lot but he seemed to be building up to town and scum reads and following up on them in a logical manner.

This is all in the first 200 posts I believe because the town read in question was early in the game. If I'm being honest after I nixed him from the running of Sloth partner I didn't drill down on him much because I felt team 1 was the more important lynch and the one we would be focusing on.

 

Jarizok's. You gave him a town lean for talking about scum mechanics from what I can tell, the other observation I saw from you being him talking about how people's natural state is town. I'm just trying to get a handle on what made you lean townie on these statements since they seem rather nothingburger to me.

 

hi @Mendel

Which do you think it more likely. 2 people targeted super town Tom as empoof says or shenanigans of bulletproof variety?

 

Nice you responded right afterward, thanks.
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@Keldeo Let me know your evaluation for toDay after the Jarizok flip happened. You didn't want to lynch Vaimes yesterday, curious who you think Sloth's partner could be now.

I'm going to be busy the rest of the day/night but I'll try to pop in here and there.

 

Honestly, I have no idea. For the "2 shots on Tom" idea, you'd have to assume Team 2 doesn't want to shoot Vaimes, and then both teams would need to have tried to shoot on a watcher dodge, aka avoiding Tammy and myself? And they wouldn't shoot someone they could lynch, so Tom, Keldeo, or Empoof, for a 33% chance of hitting the same guy. It's just a lot of speculation.

For my gut feel, the "did not submit/did not shoot" option seems more straightforward and likeable, possibly because the explanation does not rely on chance so much as on human foible.

Eidolonic knows, we guess.

 

I'm going to do my damnedest to at least catch up with today and give thoughts. I can't promise coherence. I got no sleep last night
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Happy late birthday Terraine!

 

Thank yee kindly

 

Okay so what I was looking at in your qualifiers was how you dealt with the thread and abrasive personalities as well as how you made your reads. I was trying to make sense of your reaction to Vaimes because while his posts did have some bite and were a bit abrasive, I didn't think they crossed any lines or were over the top. Replacing into a game, regardless of your alignment, being the de facto lynch of the day is stressful. I've been there, and I've brought a very frenzied somewhat abrasive energy at times as I've tried to save myself and figure out who else is scum.

Nobody town read Vaimes yesterday due to thread presence like you suggested earlier. I, for instance, had a scumread on Jarizok which I'd had since day one, and have a real problem lynching people when they replace in late in the day.

So it felt with Vaimes that some of the reason you were scum reading him was because you didn't like his play style rather than because he was actually scummy. And to be honest there were some bits of your scum read on Sloth that felt personality based rather than what he was putting in the thread. And I'm not in any way trying to take away from your correct read there at all. I've gotten irritated with people and it's influenced my reads sometimes too.

So what I was looking for was that if that was a general part of your scum hunting, and I figured the qualifiers probably had some abrasive types in there. If you dealt with them diplomatically and didn't scum read them for it, then maybe there was something up in this game here. I only got to page two of the iso, but I do think I saw some glimmers of that with Apoc and trina? I think though I think you did try to temper that a bit. So I dunno, but I wanted to know if it was a typical game for your approach before I started looking too much in behavioral similarities or differences.

The thing that I wondered about was at the end of day one when there was still some uncertainty how the lynch was going to go, I had made a post that said I preferred Jarizok over Sloth and there was some discussion. While I was trying to decide whether or not I wanted to vote Jarizok, and was struggling with voting him while he wasn't there, you were here very strongly pushing Sloth who had been your strong scum read all day long and was right. Then at the day two lynch when it was definitely between Jarizok and Vaimes, you were strongly pushing Vaimes and made a similar type of certainty post at the end.

So when I think about how those end of days went, I wonder if it's just coincidence and you're town with strong scum reads on Vaimes/Sloth or were you partnered with Jarizok and maneuvering both days to get your strong scum reads lynched and save your partner. And I don't know what to do with Jarizok's posts either. He entered the game asking if anyone had played with you, but there were other new players here too he didn't ask about. He asked fluffy for his reads on the new people. And he interacted with you in an odd way that didn't really match up with how he interacted with other people. I would like to believe that Jarizok wouldn't make a sloppy move like asking people if they'd played with his partner before, but I've seen people do it.

I was hoping if I saw how you approach reads in general, I'd be able to answer some of this.
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Okay I am tired and my brain is mush. I was gonna make a post to/about Vaimes, but my brain is a goner.
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Okay I am tired and my brain is mush. I was gonna make a post to/about Vaimes, but my brain is a gon

I feel so called out right now >>>>>>>

 

Well that's a lot to think about, Tammy. Frick. I knew I didn't have a FIRM handhold on anything but I thought I was KINDA steady.

 

Keldeo I summon thee!

 

Actually, I don't remember strong language being used in my qualifier? And tartina is pretty much the opposite of abrasive? But Apoc, yeah. He pushed me hard on day 4, so much that I was perpetually behind that day trying to answer him and catch up, and during a break I mentally "came up for air", reflected, I turned it on him (link), and eventually we lynched him on D6. If you search for the word "bullying", you'll also find some reaction posts of mine, including a bit of an apology and perspective.

Because this was such a high-profile mislynch, of course that is a kind of situation I try to be aware of now. Like I said, I'm never 100% confident in my reads, though Sloth's post that I reacted so emotionally to near the end of D1 solidified my read to way more certainty than I ever had with Apoc (and, to be fair, the D6 Apoc lynch wouldn't have happened if we hadn't run out of POE, due to a mechanical problem with a player calling their night result wrong).

So, no, the abrasiveness is not generally part of my scum hunting, though I feel that any in-game action that makes it hard for town to co-operate is inherently wolf-sided, take for example Evenstar's strategy in the first wild cards game. I think what struck Tom and me the most at first was how he scumread us just for voting him; he didn't use any additional reasoning, just that, and I felt that was consciously manipulative. The unannounced switch from Sloth partner hunting to general scum hunting when his POE got down to just Cerber and Jarizok.

Thread presence isn't something that you usually reason with, but subconsciously, it builds authority and trust. I have seen this outside of mafia, and it's one of the principles of advertising psychology. Conversely, it is very easy to mislynch someone who isn't there. One of my firm rules to not lynch a player who hasn't had an opportunity for defense (and also a reason why I tend to not announce absences, it allows wolves to schedule attacks). It didn't factor here as much, on D1 I just wanted to avoid the inevitable LHF (mis)lynch, and D2 Jarizok had been suspected for long enough that he could've defended, but he didn't. It's not a push that came from nowhere. I saw Jarizok downgrading me in his reads, but he never answered why he did that. Unfortunately, I can't explain Jarizok's posts either, I don't know him well enough, and he didn't engage a lot. And, to be honest, I *was* certain that he wasn't going to be Sloth's partner, and therefore, even if he turned out to be scum, he wasn't what we were aiming for yesterday. And Vaimes was the player who redefined this target.

My general hunting style, as seen in the qualifiers, is a bit big-brained and world-building type. I look at the thread state, see which side it is favoring, and who is controlling it, and early in the game, there is a fair amount of tinfoil in that. But sometimes it works out perfectly, like it did here, and as it did in Color Wheel, a team game where Pizza and I found 3 mafia from the first 300 posts, pizza looking at the thread state and me getting pinged by players controlling it in a wolfy way. If you don't want to get scumread by me, co-operate with others, don't sow discord!

And obviously being discordant was a large part of what Vaimes did on D2. He changed the thread atmosphere from something of a game-solving tea party to something that moves fast and threatens anyone who suspects him, including the use of insulting language. He changed this game into being unpleasant for me, just the atmosphere, and I have seen Evenstar employ this as a wolf strategy, and it definitely works against town, with the result that Sloth's partner wasn't lynched that day, though we were all set on it at the start of the day. I explicitly put that decision up for debate, and we had consensus on it. It's clear that Sloth's actual partner must break this consensus, or they won't survive the day, and Vaimes did that!

So, just from the overall shape of how our day 2 went, I have a very confident read on Vaimes. It's especially apparent when you see him switching from team-1 hunting to general scum hunt, and his reaction to being called out about it. For a more particular read, his constant scum-reading of Tom just for voting him is something I expect a town player of Vaimes's caliber to know to be unjustified, so why did he do that?

I do rely on other players to do other types of scum hunting. I am fairly tone deaf, which is why I was sheeping you on tone reads of Tom. Empoof and Keldeo don't have clearly defined roles in the shapes of the days, which is why I have trouble sorting them. That's when I have to rely on co-operation, making other voices heard, and talk to people about how they are solving, to find them. Which I haven't been doing today, because I'm still fixated on Vaimes. Hmmm.

This is a bit longer and more rambling than I'd hoped, I apologize.
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See here: https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forum...2020-or-bust?p=3622899&viewfull=1#post3622899

 

I appreciate you, Mendel. I want to hear from Keldeo this day phase.

If you have some questions about how I'm viewing things feel free to ask them, I'll get to them sometime tomorrow. I think I've laid out my general thoughts for this phase well enough and kind of just want to let the thread breathe.

 

Votal

Vaimes (3): Mendel, TerRaine, Fluffiness
Fluffiness (1): Vaimes

Not Voting (4): Empoof, Tammy, CerberAsta, Keldeo

 

Hi sorry for not being here! My time for this game is getting eaten by other commitments. If all goes well I'll be around tonight (~20 hours from now), and then around EOD.

 

I’m working pretty much sunrise to sunset all week, and I don’t have much more to say. Kinda just waiting for non-posting people to catch up.

 

We're about halfway through Day3 and no other obvious subjects have come up. It's really important to get scum, now more than ever, seeing as they still get two Night Kills, last night's fluke nonwithstanding. This could change if there is a genuinely better reason to lynch elsewhere, but for now...

VOTE VAIMES

 

Just for FYI purposes 1 more puts us at soft lynch...3 at hard. Since hard lynch is everyone but one person voting I doubt that will be an issue but just a reminder in case

 

-sips tea-
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I have a question. Who do you think is scum, and why?
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Hi, you have done very little scumhunting toDay. Even if you believe me to be one, there is another one, and there is no excuse for parking your vote on me and patting yourself on the back like the game is over.
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In fact, I’ll go a step further and argue that nobody has really scumhunted toDay. There’s a fair amount of words and posts, but which of them are pushing the game forward, and which are actively lurking?

 

k.

 

This doesn’t really include the people who are busy, even if a large busy population makes it easier for mafia to lurk.
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Thanks.
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Like, if this is supposed to be your village play, it’s disappointing to say the least.