Ping me if you hace questions. And please dont explode the thread. If i wake up tp twenty new pages im going to go hug every person i see until i get corona.

 

As in how do you go straight from expressing confusion over my embarrassment post to having me at the bottom of your reads. Confusion and strong reads don't usually go hand in hand.

 

I don't buy it.
10 qiestion marks for 10chars.
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Not confusion, by the way.

 

Damn not even considering me with the fairly obviously intentional redirectional conversation starter.
Woulda been a baller move as w/w with fire.
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I really want to just based on word to thought ratio
But it feels like a posting style thing a little.
Might look at meta

Obsequious promdate
Bad ratios
Possible bits of carson daly syndrome?
Umami partner?
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My dude if youre town ima need you to start from scratch and not do that.
Im plenty self absorbed enough for everyone find your own perspective
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Its completely clear yes.
I quite like his point and it confirms my confirmation bias
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What sloth said is among the most common responses when i say that sort of thing.
Out of the blue, sure. Would probably be a scummy post. But nai in response to me telling him why were w/w
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Miner can still get lynched.

 

@GeneralHankerchief My town read on Tom came about directly after I suspected he was stirring up trouble between Fontisian and Gemma. He explained his reasoning in this post.

I'd just link his post number but I'm on mobile and it doesn't show up. Anyway he gave me his reasoning and to me it feels genuine. Like, I'm still pretty sure Gemma was dodgy so her slot is still my best mafia read and if that is true then what would Tom gain from going in on her?

 

Reads based on the first 100 posts (I'll look at more later):

Fontisian is probably town for how they addressed the Gun-Merlin situation. I also like how they are addressing people. Fontisian and Gemma appear to be unaligned.

Grapefruit21 came into the thread not quite sounding like himself, so I'm a little wary there. His vote on Tom looks quite bad. Post #47 is meh, and his explanation in #68 doesn't make me much happier with it. I think it has potential, but overall, I'm mostly just ignoring Grapefruit for the time being. Grapefruit and Tom appear to be unaligned. I don't know. Maybe Grapefruit actually believes his read on Tom. I don't agree with it, but I can sorta see from where he's getting it.

Tom is playing around. I don't see much clarity to his alignment early on in this game. Clearly tom needs a sexier avatar to make people think that he is always town. I like tom's poke at aggressive responses, though. Unfortunately, Tom has thrown his vote around in the first 60 posts more than a whelk in a tornado. I get slight town pings from how interactions are going between Tom and others.

I don't know what to think about Gemma. Gemma appears very neutral and low effort in the early game. Gemma is not at all proactive. I have a scumlean overall.

The Waco Kid's entrance is either VERY scummy or VERY townie. I guess that makes it NAI for the time being. I think they're pretending to be useful in a lot of posts. Scum could be here.

Keldeo's entry feels a bit LAMIST in tone. #77 isn't much better, in my personal opinion. Keldeo is very forgiving very quickly in #86.

I like Sloth's conviction about the aggressive definition. I also like that he also notes that Grapefruit and Tom appear to be unaligned. Sloth is probably town.

Umami's interaction with Keldeo in #72 feels like it's genuinely relatively new town, and based on this being their 3rd game, that makes sense.

Cuthalion exists. I don't like Cuthalion's approach to the Tom/Grape situation. Scum?

I don't have an opinion on Fire.

%%%
%%%

Tiers (Unsorted within tiers):

Probably Town:

Fonti Hankerchief
Sloth
Umami

Maybe Town:

Tom

Null:

Grapefruit21

No Info:

Fire
M Plus 7
Seratin

Maybe Scum:

Cuthalion
The Waco Kid

Probably Scum:

Gemma Miner
Keldeo

%%%
%%%

I'll probably just do the same with the last roughly 100 posts and see if I can sort people based on that.

For now...

VOTE: Miner

 

Sorry if hard to understand, I'm tired and have been struggling with the words.

Well, I wouldn't be unwilling to lynch there either, I think.

But completely separately from any of that slot's posts, this is the VC right now (I think):
Miner (6): tom, GeneralHankerchief, Seratin, Keldeo, fire, Osieorb18
tom (1): Miner
The Waco Kid (1): Umami
Umami (1): Grapefruit21
Cuthalion (1): M Plus 7
Sloth (1): Fluffiness
Abstaining (3): Cuthalion, Sloth, The Waco Kid

I think almost everyone, even the people not voting him right now, has expressed suspicion of Miner's slot. I realize this type of read is silly and not often accurate, but the fact that the whole game seems on board with killing Miner concerns me. If he is mafia, I don't really know why his partners are letting this happen if they can help it. So I'll be pretty unsurprised if we end up shruglynching Miner and he flips town.

I guess on some level I'd also be pretty unsurprised if he flips mafia due to the magnitude of the read from people who seem legit to me. lol preflip associations, but his partners might just not have had the thread presence/control to push back when the wagon was building, like fire, Osie, MP7. People who might fit the profile in terms of presence but don't super jibe with the idea to me are Fluff, Cuth, Seratin. Maybe grape or Waco, I don't really know how much they've posted overall. I don't particularly think that tom/GH are bussing if Miner is mafia.

Alternatively, there's a world where his partners did push against it - where, like, Umami is mafia with Miner and thought that her push on Tom would actually succeed in getting votes for Tom (who was at the time the only counterwagon).
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Mm, don't think I really communicated what I meant. I was asking whether you found yourself consciously reaching/confbiasing small things in order to substantiate some of those early reads, it seems like the answer is no. Particularly because of your comparison of yourself to me, the post reminded me a bit of early posts that I've made as mafia where I give more reads, and more confident reads, than I'd have as town at that point.

It maybe just stems from your default level of confidence in your conclusions being higher than mine - Osie like just posted a list of early-catchup reads that similarly read much more confident than I was at that point so it's probably a low bar.

wrt Umami, I've been wanting to reread her again but I might not get to it before I sleep... I am interested in your take on her thoughts on tom starting 346, particularly the idea that she was attempting to rep a push on tom but TMIed him town in the midst of it.
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Been weighing two perspectives on Umami's discussion with tom:

If she's mafia, she's attempting to present a veneer of considering all the angles that just shades tom without really taking responsibility for it, by bringing up how he ~could~ be mafia. Then during the discussion she's TMIing him as town by talking about how his hunches are good, and anchoring. #357 is her seemingly catching herself TMIing and continuing to represent the push on him.

If she's town, she came out of her tom reread holding these distinct worlds/possibilities in her head - tom is town anchoring and trusting too much in his hunches vs. tom is scum setting stuff up for later - and not distinguishing between which world she's in when she responds. This wavering between two confident worlds is what accounts for her talking to tom like she knows he's town in one post and like she thinks he's scum in the next. #357 is her presenting a mafia-tom-world argument as an alternative in response to tom presenting a town-tom-world argument.

I think I buy into the second, town world more. It seems like a reasonable throughline given her initial post about tom, where she keeps bringing up either-ors with respect to his behavior.

@Grapefruit21 in particular, what do you think of this latter interpretation of the discussion?
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@Umami, why is your vote on Waco? Sorry if that's been asked and answered too.


I don't think I fully answered Cuth's question about Miner. Like I said, I'm feeling meh but I'm not unwilling to lynch him. I partially buy into the cases on the slot, as I talked through earlier. I think to some extent the read that she was evasive/avoidant/etc., if I'm understanding it right, could also be a result of her just viewing it as a chill game and not really wanting to do game stuff early on. Similar to MP7's read on Cuth actually, but not really the same thing. It's semi-immaterial now that Miner is in the slot. I talked about Gemma's posts earlier, and Miner's catchup so far hasn't really moved the needle a whole lot for me.



@ people who know him, what are Miner's town and scum games like, if you think it's relevant?

@Miner, what do you mean by you don't buy grape's post? What makes it suspicious to you?

 

Mainly fonti's read, but also the contradictory/non-substantive posts from Gemma. Moreover, if we get this wrong, we can - as I've said before - just lynch the people pushing the bandwagon, particularly those who jumped on halfway. Consequently, there's little downside for the town to do this - D1's mainly for just gathering information which can be analyzed after the vote/reveal anyway, and I think we've just gotten lucky there was a significant wolf misplay. At a meta-level, I don't believe - and I doubt anyone else here believes - that the double replacements were a coincidence.

Great! Obviously, I've townread you since you replaced fonti. I presume you're keeping fonti's vote on Gemma/Miner? If so, can I get a sense of your reasoning (whether it's similar to mine or tom's or anyone else's etc); and if not, why not?

Considering your probably alignment, this only clears Grape more.

As you note, the strength of the bandwagon was too great. The rational wolf choice at that point is to throw the (probably) outed wolf under the bus. It's nothing particularly surprising; but I also don't think such defensive actions are necessarily effective since - if the Gemma/Miner slot does in fact turn out to be wolf - we can just go back to the pre-bussing posts and see who was defending whom.

E: not sure why I typed "probably" rather than "probable" in all the above paragraphs, but I guess I'm mildly drunk, so replacement word with word accordingly.

 

@Seratin what do you think of Cuthalion and MP7 now that they've done a bit more?

@GeneralHankerchief tell me more?

Yeah. Not random so much as trying to update my mental picture of people's reads, particularly if the read's on someone who recently posted a lot that might change the read, or getting people to give reads at all on people they haven't discussed.
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@fire, GH talked about why he was keeping his vote on Miner in his first post here.

Okay, so who do you think is bussing Miner? In terms of voting, that would be me or Osie? Or do you think it's someone who didn't vote Miner but just expressed passive support?

Also, discussing replacements isn't allowed.
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I'll be back before deadline.

 

Finally home from work (the switch to 12 shifts is killing me), lets see what I can get to before I pass out

 

Would appreciate if you could place a vote before you have to go!

 

I woke up, but im probably going back to sleep after this. However, of the wagon on me, fire's post above feels the slimiest by far.

Also i will and have been playing as though Gamma didn't play the past three days because i dont know her play well enough to understand what she was going for. Feel free to read my slot based on Gemma's actions, but for me personally Im just playing this like i flew back into town from abroad to fight the corona.

 

WRT Fire: I'm just not seeing a solving thought process in that post. He notes 3 reads, all of which are what are pretty safe to say the 3 biggest consensus reads in the game so far. Then the Fontisian read is based off the "don't talk about the gun" thing, which 1) is a pretty NAI thing (to me at least), since it could have come from Fonti from either alignment, & 2) Doesn't at all dive into any of her interactions.

Then the Gemma read is entirely based on that Fontisian says so, which at best is kinda ??? and at worst is a rough attempt at passing the buck should Gemma flip town.

For Grape its a combination of me really liking the way he responded in #376 & #380, where he not only answered questions, but then continued on to expand on it with a continuation that showed both his thought processes and then he's clearly working to try and solve. That combined with Umami's Gemma thing making me consider those as a possible w/w, and if Grape is the 3rd partner there, that'd make Umami's calling teammate!Grape town for defending other teammate!Gemma an absolute bizarre interaction. Together those were enough for me to put Grape into the group of people I wasn't willing to lynching today (the line in my rainbow)
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My bad, meant to put that in the rainbow post

Vote: Miner
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I'll be back a few hours before deadline
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Yeah, my eyes are glazing over trying to get through the M+7 catchup post, I'm going to call it a night

 

@Keldeo thanks for the answer. I was curious because you felt really passive to me this game and I didn't get that impression in our other games together. But I don't really have a feel for you to judge if that's even out of character or AI if it is.

As for Umami I think the town explanation is significantly less likely than the scum one. The scum explanation requires so few assumptions to make sense (knows tom is town and lost track of her read) compared to the townie one (she is split between two images of tom, is engaging with the half that thinks he's town) and also requires incredible poise as a new player under significant pressure from someone know to be loud and a center of attention.

I'm not opposed to giving a new player the benefit of the doubt but it's not the only instance of her treating someone like that as Waco outlined earlier. She makes a read that I wouldn't bus Gemma like that (when I really didn't push Gemma at all) so I must be town. But she hasn't consistently expressed a strong scum read on Gemminer for that read to make internal sense.
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Anyway it's 11pm here. I should be back a bit before the deadline. I've tunneled on Umami to the point where I'm already counting Miner as a buddy but I'm more confident in Umami and pretty sure we don't need my vote right this second on Miner.

 

This reads very strange to me.

If Umami and I we're w/w, do you really think I would say "Umami town because pure, let's move on?"

 

this place is weird. when are we gonna bust through the other window, anyway?​

Votecount 1.4

Miner (7): tom, fontisian, Seratin, Keldeo, fire, Osieorb18, The Waco Kid
tom (1): Miner
The Waco Kid (1): Umami
Umami (1): Grapefruit21
Cuthalion (1): M Plus 7
Sloth (1): Fluffiness

Abstaining (2): Cuthalion, Sloth

With 14 alive, soft lynch is 8 and hard lynch is 11.

Deadline is here; about 11 hours remain.

 

Turn your phone sideways to access post numbers and the magnifying glass to iso.

Is it only towny if gemma is mafia?
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So still reading half the game but skipping the middle?
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I dont think many people live in two worlds like this, but rather have two theories and then live somewhere in the middle.
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These are not good reasons to scumread gemma.
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Yes

 

It’s probably right that it requires more assumptions about her play style but something clicked when I read through the interaction from that POV. Possible that I’m taking Umami too much at her word when she said stuff that seemed to indicate that mindset.

 

It's towny because it's solid reasoning at a time when you were right up there with people I suspect of scum. There's a world where you're both town and I'm completely wrong but that's a world where you you're both being idiots.

 

Grape, I definitely feel more active than at least MCU haha.

Fire talking about how it would be the rational wolf choice to bus Miner and how wolves would be on the back half of the wagon if Miner is town without any self consciousness: I want to townread this? The alternative is that he’s saying it without concern for its implications wrt his own wagon position because he knows it’s true