Cobalt, who do you think might be that deepwolf?

You were in the Thing game too, do you agree/disagree with Tom and Cuth's read of Fluff as v because of the contrast with how he behaved as Falcon?
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I have general good feels about Cuth and MP7 for the EoD yesterday.

Few notable early Cuth/Waco or Cuth/Sloth interactions/mentions except this "me/Waco/Sloth placidly playing tug-of-war" post.

Spoiler: lol

I also like this pre-shot sequence on day 3, for specifically Cuth's last question and the way that Sloth reacts to it by biting back, rather than just answering the questions. It could be that wolves wanted to start to distance earlier that day simply due to the presence of the gun and the risk of Miner being a wildcard, but it still feels a bit more likely w -> v than w -> w - particularly in the latter case, Sloth would know that the push is ~fake and Cuth isn't actually going to follow up on this, so why react that way to the wording.
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Not really sure how much I believe what I just posted given that Sloth generally isn't afraid to bite back against things, but it feels like a legit read.
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Also, one thing I noticed in Waco's last reads wall and pointed out yesterDay is that he used a similar reason to my stated "boxing himself in" reasoning for townreading MP7. I feel better about MP7 because Waco did a similar thing with MP7's read on Rhand:

Clearly, given that this was before the shot, this read is positional, but what's notable to me is that the entirety of the read essentially echoes MP7's thoughts, like he wants to reinforce MP7 being wrong in Miner's mind.

If he had actually mentioned that he was sheeping MP7, I might feel better about this read, but for different reasons (the shifting of blame, rather than acting toward someone as he did toward me).
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"Why aren't you voting this villager?" vs. "Let me assess your read on my partner and and also set you up for failure if he flips wolf" but probably more likely just shading him for inconsistency?
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I don't think Sloth interacted with Fluff's vote on him.

Sloth asked pretty much everyone questions, including Fluff and Sera, that I don't feel like quoting.
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Oh, and I don't really get Rhand's Sloth/Fluffiness w/w read based on that vote because Fluff did not actually end up on Sloth at EOD?

Cobalt and MP7 were correct so my opinion is objectively wrong, but I still think that post from Sloth was not that wolfy haha.

I agree with Cuth that this progression is like, hmm, but whatever.
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Currently, I clear MP7/Grape/Cuth for a hopefully winning POE of Cobalt/Fluff, in that order, which was about where I started the day. I'll dig a little deeper into the MP7/Grape/Cuth tier tomorrow, I guess.

@M Plus 7, can you talk to me about harder worlds here? I feel like I'm being lazy and might just find what I want to find.
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That's also @ grape and Cuth, but MP7 specifically said he'd be around later today, I think. Do the things I pointed out feel like valid reasons to clear people? Further or general thoughts?

 

This is the song that doesn't end. It just goes on and on my friend. Some people started singing it, not knowing what it was. And they'll continue singing it forever just because.

This is the song that doesn't end. It just goes on and on my friend. Some people started singing it, not knowing what it was. And they'll continue singing it forever just because.

This is the song that doesn't end. It just goes on and on my friend. Some people started singing it, not knowing what it was. And they'll continue singing it forever just because.

This is the song that doesn't end. It just goes on and on my friend. Some people started singing it, not knowing what it was. And they'll continue singing it forever just because.

This is the song that doesn't end. It just goes on and on my friend. Some people started singing it, not knowing what it was. And they'll continue singing it forever just because.
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Oh Wait
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Vote: Waco
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Just kidding...

Unvote
Vote: Vaimes

You didn't think I was going to miss out on this, did you?
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Can we get the EoD on zoom or something so I can see the look on all your faces when I flip town?

 

My apologies all, I am here sporadically now throughout the next few hours.
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I'm sorry all for not having been around more; I thought ambitiously that I could come in here and do more analysis but we had spring break last week and I'm fervently trying to catch up on a bunch of work stuff now among other things.

Nah, you're probably not being lazy; I find this generally agreeable. We really just cracked open this game completely last phase.

I've gone back and looked at Waco and Sloth ISOs some more but quickly in addition to what you quoted here, and I would say it's almost always Serabalt, and when it's not, then serious re-evaluation would need to occur.

I am merely paranoid of harder worlds, but going back and looking as well, I'm just not seeing them. I suppose GTH I do wonder about Grape specifically... Waco and Sloth were both independently harsh towards him in the early game especially, so I'm inclined to say it's all not teammate compatible, but I can't completely shake the feeling that there might have been some bussing there. I'll investigate further with that in mind.

 

I just wanted to let you all know that I had a brief heart attack moment while half asleep last night that Waco might be a jester-type role but immediately calmed when I remembered the setup was open and just mountainous desperado.

That is all for now.

 

For example, see above. Both Waco and Sloth's posts even when they aren't suspecting Grape at all are at least lightly hostile towards Grape in tone and/or content.

Is it forced because it's a teammate interaction, or is Grape just a mislynch they were hoping to push?

 

Hm, I think Grape is actually the person that I feel best about, but I see what you mean. Will try and take more of a look at him in the evening.
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Like [large number]% of the time it won't matter but shrug, whatever, we have time.

 

Yeah, I mean I feel pretty good about him as well, just trying to ask the right questions if we are in hard mode.

 

I mean, Grape townread Waco early, Waco mentioned Grape moving up and townread him in his last list (adopting MP7's reasoning, again), Sloth had that unvoting Grape while still saying he was weird thing on day 1... Early on, a lot of people still alive were vaguely to flagrantly wrong on one or both of Waco/Sloth, so that doesn't worry me too much.

My main hangup with a Waco/Grape/Sloth world is EOD2 starting from #1180. The w/w explanation of Grape's vote onto Sloth is that he's just voting his partner to distance because he knows he won't go over, but it seemed like a genuine attempt to get a counterwagon going. I also like that he cites following Rhand and admit that he's going against his own reads - Sloth painted this as shifting away blame, I feel like it'd be shifting away the cred that he would get for the bus if w/w.

Waco and Sloth both shaded that vote and Grape's overall EOD2 in the moment, including while Grape was getting wagoned. They were all townreading each other before, so like, why stop, especially right before day 3, when they could continue powerwolfing and just get someone else shot? You could say that the gun day makes it the best time to start distancing in case one of them does get shot, but idk. Just... feels more like they're trying to ride on the coattails of thread momentum to push a villager.
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This question (to Grape on day 3) also feels a bit like a trap so that Sloth can start pushing me/Grape w/w. I think he would have started doing that the irl day before EOD if he could have.
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The galaxy brain take is that everyone except for Grape is town, because everyone present at EOD3 would have switched to break the tie so that Waco wouldn't out himself.
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Oh, Cobalt was also not around at EOD.

If it's Cobalt, I'm totally going to pretend that was my read on him the entire time.
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Anyway, MP7, please don't feel pressured to give thoughts if you have to work. I'm just here because I've got nothing better to do.
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I don't really think this tone is super AI for Grape. iirc, both of them took a similar tone toward, for example, some of fire's early posting.
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Vote Waco

Hammer is 2 more votes after this.

 

I've been a bit out of it the last few days and having a hard time getting the motivation to dive into this/explore less probable worlds, I'd be down to realtime later if any of y'all are around but.

My thing with fluff, and the reason I still have him as more villagery than grape, is that as a wolf last game he was truly abominable under pressure. Just was like aah what do i do, tom did a fair amount of pointing him in directions to go and prompting thoughts and things, after the pressure had been on for an entire phase he basically just couldn't deal with it and exeunted. This game, not only was he reasonable and doing things that seemed normal before he got pushed, he responded really coolly to being voted by both tom and I, who would definitely know, and didn't show any signs of stress beyond like oh hey I'm getting voted. If he was coming off the back of a really good wolf performance where they won and he got a big hit of self confidence, I could maybe see it, but not this.
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Agreed on this.
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Don't want to hammer unless M+ checks in and says he's not going to do anything more in the day.

 

I agree with Cuth on Fluff from what I’ve read, I usually have difficulty reading him but I don’t think he’s a player that has drastically different gameplay in back to back games as the same alignment. I’d be comfortable putting him in my town pile for now, even.

 

Tell me more about your town pile?
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Thanks for the thoughts about fluff! I had thought he had something else going on when his activity kind of dropped off.

I'm mostly around until deadline if you or anyone wants to realtime, I guess.

Do you have a lot of experience with Cobalt?

 

I'm here! Man, it's been a busy few days, but it should let up really soon. But of course that doesn't help the current situation.
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Thanks for exploring the world with Grape, Keldeo. I agree that the case for town Grape is almost infinitely more compelling. I'm down to realtime if any of you will be here soon.

 

FYI I’m low-efforting bc today is a lock I’ll do more explorations toMorrow

 

I'm here, MP7!

I'm not entirely sure what to talk about, haha. Can I ask what you teach? Are there any worlds you want to think a bit more about?
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Cool, that's okay!

I think in most worlds I vote for you tomorrow...
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I mean, I can't think of anyone else I'd vote over Cobalt.

Maybe I should re-ISO Seratin.

 

Hi, Keldeo!

I'm not sure either! So let's do a GTH thing. So we'll say Serabalt is lynched tomorrow and comes up town. Where would you immediately start thinking for the remaining scum?

I teach accounting, specifically accounting information systems. Fun stuff, right? Lol.

 

I’m not gonna roll over and die tomorrow if that’s what you’re expecting.

I’ll also demand that anyone voting me worldbuild around me being town to save time in the long run.

 

Man, I don't know.

I guess my initial assumption is that it's Fluffiness because there aren't any specifically clearing interactions (I think, I haven't looked closely into what Waco and Sloth posted about him, I guess Waco asked him a few proddy questions), and it's like... maybe there's some other reason that the meta read doesn't apply here. Once I misread someone who I have a really good "not anxious, therefore town" meta read on because she just didn't care enough about the game to get anxious about being mafia, but I doubt that's the case here...
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I wouldn't expect that, Cobalt. I'm just having a hard time building worlds where you are town.
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I don't think there are many notable Cuth interactions besides that one post that I pulled out and other d3 stuff. I don't think I was ever as swayed onto him being town on the merit of his own posts - I was very "shrug" on him too in MCU, I feel like maybe his style is generally one that I have trouble having strong thoughts about.

Well, I guess I still have a hard time imagining that Cuth would okay Waco outing himself given that he was clearly around to switch?
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If Cuth is mafia, his read on Fluff today sets up to lynch x in a Fluff/Cuth/x final 3.

I guess the thing is I don't think Cuth's positioning pre-shot day 3 makes a lot of sense in a Waco/Sloth/him world - see his sorbet list. Like, his Waco second-lowest read explicitly did not have to do with Rhand being mafia when he explained it to me.

 

I don't see why he'd be doing that.

 

Yeah, I just don't think it's Cuth, and I think your strongest point is the last one regarding his pre-shot Day 3 behavior. I trusted him pretty well so even though I was feeling pretty good about you after a while and not so good elsewhere, it's hard to imagine scum Cuth not at least trying to sway me and/or anyone else in a different direction instead of letting his other two teammates implode.

 

Why he'd be doing what? Positioning for final 3, if he's mafia?
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Yeah. He had the cachet with you, in particular, and you were driving the thread a lot in the last stretch.
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All of this assumes that the answer to "Did Waco legitimately think that he would be able to effect a NL by unvoting?" is "yes"; if it's "no", I'd obviously give more credence to Cobalt's deep wolf theory, but I'm still not entirely sure who that wolf would be.